Filling out your brackets: Any good tips?

Submitted by profitgoblue on

March Madness has us all in its grips, squeezing the picks out of us.  Every year I sweat and swear as I fill out my bracket, knowing all along that my first round picks will be decent and then my bracket will go to sh-t.  Its all I can do to have even just one team in the damn Final Four.  So I was wondering if you all have any interesting ways of picking "toss up" games or filling out your backets in general.

One interesting tidbit I found on Yahoo is this"

Make difficult picks using the "mascot fight" theory

Two of the hardest games to pick in last year's first round were UCLA-Michigan State and Vanderbilt-Richmond.  They were veritable toss-ups. But looking at these games in retrospect, they were all too easy to pick. Bruins vs. Spartans?  Hmm, a vicious bear or a person who shuns the conveniences of modern living?  I saw "Grizzly Man."  I know how that story ends.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-dagger/fill-2012-ncaa-tournament-bracket-024636059.html

(I deleted the reference to "Friends" in that blurb because, well, "Friends" and NCAA basketball should never be uttered in the same discussion.)

Fork over your secrets!

 

 

MGoCombs

March 12th, 2012 at 11:07 AM ^

I use a combination of RPI(s), KenPom and gut upset picks to inevitably come up with the worst bracket ever.

Some teams deserve higher seeds because they won their conference or beat a couple of good teams, but aren't necessarily that good when you watch them. I try to spot those teams for upsets.

By round 3, I am usually disgusted with myself for being so stupid.

ijohnb

March 12th, 2012 at 1:14 PM ^

much stock into KenPom and RPI as I do a president who says he is going to "bring change."  There are lies, damn lies, and then statistics.  Come tourney time, those numbers don't mean a damn thing, literally nothing.

Stick with these:  1. Wisconsin will go further than you think, 2. Purdue will not go as far as you think 3. Coaching beats athleticism every time 4. Barring a miracle, Michigan State will be in the Final Four, and 5. Fergodsakes, never pick Villanova to win anything, does not apply this year, but it is a rule to live by.

MGoCombs

March 12th, 2012 at 1:35 PM ^

Agreed about their meaninglessness, but I know I will inevitably put too much stock into the numbers and end up with a terrible bracket. It's tradition.

orobs

March 12th, 2012 at 1:46 PM ^

Wisconsin chokes every year in the tourney (they've made it to the sweet 16 twice since 2005 despite having 3-5 seeds most years).  MSU is a hot team right now, but so is Mizzou.  I watched them play a couple times, and they are a legit team.

joeyb

March 12th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^

The one year I won, I picked Florida to beat OSU in the finals because that's what happened in football that year. Is LSU even in the bracket this year?

robbyt003

March 12th, 2012 at 11:09 AM ^

Base all of your picks on these two key components:

The teams school colors and the teams mascot.

Girls use that philosophy and I swear they win the pool every year

WolverineHistorian

March 12th, 2012 at 11:11 AM ^

I'm not qualified to give bracket advice. 

I used to love filling those out every year.  But every year, my bracket was already shot to hell by the time the Sweet 16 started.  I think I'm going in to early bracket retirement. 

Sac Fly

March 12th, 2012 at 11:14 AM ^

There was one year when I broke down every single team based on every stat available, style of play, star oriented or team effort and I ended up with a busted bracket because offensive anemic UNI took down UNLV and Kansas. I could have saved a lot of time by just flipping a coin.

ForeverBlue

March 12th, 2012 at 11:19 AM ^

At least Pitt isn't in the tournament, otherwise I would pick them to do well again. And they would get upset early again. Which Big East team will let me down this year? Syracuse? Marquette? I'm looking forward to another team messing up my bracket this year!

GoBlogSparty

March 12th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^

Don't put too much stock in either Kansas or Vanderbilt. They give me high hopes every year and then end up losing to a random mid-major that I've never heard of. Oh, and more than half the Big East tourney teams normally suck.

sULLY

March 12th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^

The team that always seems to get me in trouble is Georgetown.  Like Wisconsin, they seem to be perpetual tournament under-achievers.

MGoNOLA

March 12th, 2012 at 11:26 AM ^

Last year I knew nothing about what was going on in basketball. I took President Obama's bracket and just switched it so Michigan advanced to the Elite 8. 

I did fairly well with that method. 

Also Esquire Magazine came up with these basics:

 

1. Advance all number-one seeds to the second round.

2. And the third round.

3. And the regional semifinals.

4. Find the mid-major team you've never heard of and put it in the Elite Eight.

5. Your alma mater goes to the Elite Eight, no matter what.

6. When in doubt, Big Ten.

7. Do not ask for rule clarifications from the commissioner.

8. Do not refer to the office-pool coordinator as "the commissioner."

9. If you make your assistant fill out your bracket, your assistant gets the winnings.

10. Trash talk shall be confined to the urinals.

French West Indian

March 12th, 2012 at 11:31 AM ^

...just go with the seeding and don't pick any upsets.  Most of your competition (friends, coworkers, etc.) will manage to shoot themselves in the foot.

 

M-Wolverine

March 12th, 2012 at 12:04 PM ^

While I generally agree a little more chalk helps more than it hurts in most cases, and people try and be too smart and kill themselves, I've kept track of how all chalk would do in my pool, and show it along with everyone else's point total, and not once would going all chalk have won the money.  Good for a nice average score, but not if you want to profit.

Nick

March 12th, 2012 at 7:20 PM ^

you need mostly chalk with a little differentiation from the rest of your pool.

Far more often that last year's miracle runs, cinderellas only go a round or 2.   Any upset I pick I cap them at jsut that upset and have them lose next round.

This gives me some variance from others, but also limits downside.

triangle_M

March 12th, 2012 at 11:44 AM ^

I never take chalk all the way but this year I also don't have any outside teams (a la VCU of 2011) getting into the final four.    I'd say pull all the 1 seeds into the elite 8, and that's where they tend to be upset.

 

EAST:

Florida State is really really good and matched up well against the top talent of the ACC.  I have them going to the final four after beating Ohio State and Syracuse.  

 

WEST:

Sparty over Missouri after beating New Mexico. Yuk.

SOUTH:

Baylor over Kentucky after getting by Duke. I think this is the toughest one for me to call.  Duke is a good basketball team, but I hate Duke, so I have them losing to Baylor.

MIDWEST:

UNC has a tough bracket and I see them getting by Michigan just because they play above the rim and Henson will be back and we have no answer for him inside. 

I have Michigan facing Temple in the second round.   This game is interesting for me if it winds up happening since its both of my alma maters (MS is from Temple).  I won't be pulling for Temple.  I have Kansas beating UNC out of the Midwest after beating SDSU.  

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

March 12th, 2012 at 11:34 AM ^

In all my years of bracket-picking, win or lose I've only found one really good ironclad rule that works every time: When in doubt, never ever ever bet on Oliver Purnell.

Sadly, he's not in the tourney this year, so I'm on my own.

Allin4Blue

March 12th, 2012 at 11:43 AM ^

My bracket was so bad after the first 2 rounds I stopped following it.  However, when it was all said and done, my bracket won!  I was the only person in the the contest to have at least 1 team in the final 4.  It really is all about luck!