What? Really? Not Purdue?
... But.. but... Herbstreit said so!
Really, I think it's a little premature, but if MSU or Nebraska can rack up one more loss, then I think we have a very good chance of making it to Pasadena.
What? Really? Not Purdue?
... But.. but... Herbstreit said so!
Really, I think it's a little premature, but if MSU or Nebraska can rack up one more loss, then I think we have a very good chance of making it to Pasadena.
Burkhead's backup Ameer Abdullah has 86 carries for 514 yards (6.0 YPC) and 7 touchdowns. He had 7 carries for 28 yards and 2 touchdowns against Ohio State. Some of his yards came against weak teams, but so did Burkhead's. Regardless, I wouldn't say Nebraska's running game is finished without Burkhead.
While I think Michigan is a better overall team than Michigan State, everyone knows they'll play the game of their lives against Michigan. It has been and always will be their super bowl. So while I think Michigan wins, I'm not 100% positive. It'll be a close game.
I will call my shot here and predict Michigan 45 - Sparty 17 (at most).
Mattison will take away Bell (and his screen) leaving Maxwell to beat him with TE play or outside. Neither of these things will happen.
Starters will play the full game.
Dantonio will complain.
We are playing ILLINOIS this week. No one else.
Focus on whats at hand, people!
Never understood this rationale, we're fans... Us looking ahead doesn't mean the team is. Plus they release schedules in advance, so, ya know... We know who we are playing next week, in two weeks, and he'll even 2 years.
were not going to score 45 on them
If Indiana can put up 27 in the first half, we should be able to put up 45 in 4 quarters.
This sort of logic rarely translates well to college football. Not saying it's impossible, but extrapolating from one team's output in one half is unreliable. Even if it's Indiana.
A portion of that first half was penalty assisted as well. Indiana looked great - the up-tempo did seem to disorient the Sparty D - and took enough chances that paid off.
But Wilson must have thought he had a defense, because in addition to MSU's adjustments, the Hoosiers stopped taking chances and thought they could sit on a lead.
You seem to forget that Sparty drew up the perfect blueprint the last 2 years for how to stop Denard. They're going to do the same thing this year. Blitz early, blitz often, rattle Denard, force him to make terrible throws. Hopefully this year, they won't have the snap count memorized.
You also seem to be grossly underestimating how important this game is to them. No matter what happens, they are going to play the absolute game of their lives in this game. This will not be a blowout, no matter how badly we all want it to be. Then again, in rivalry games, you can throw everything out the window in terms of what should/shouldn't happen.
I think Indiana was able to put up 27 by the half because MSU just came in without any sort of energy. They probably looked at Indiana and saw an instant W. Then when the 2nd half came around, MSU completely shut them down.
I know it wasn't obvious, but i was kidding about the relation between Indiana's and our success against MSU. I know it doesn't work that way.
That said, I still think that we are going to beat them by 2 TDs. This coaching staff is smart and they will draw MSU offsides with the center. Stopping Denard last year was mostly from a bad game plan that involved throwing too much and running too little in a trash tornado. MSU has "come in without any sort of energy" in all of their games so far. They can't move the ball. Stop Bell, stop MSU. Take out the CMU game and MSU has averaged 10.4 points through the first 3 quarters and trailed going into the 4th quarter in all 5 of those games. I don't think it's unreasonable for us to assume that we will be leading going into the 4th quarter. If we have a 2 TD lead, expect MSU to start getting desparate and to give up some big plays to us on both offense and defense. That's how we get 45 points on the board. That would look like the Nebraska game last year. 17-10 at half. 31-17 at the end of the 3rd quarter. 45-17 at the end of the game.
Sparty is still a pretty sound team defensively. Their performance at Indiana this past weekend, notwithstanding, they are going to show up for us on the 20th. I think Michigan is the more balanced team this year and wins this game, but to be predicting 20+ point margins of victory is a little silly. This game is almost never a blow-out.
Only 3 of those games were a 3 score difference. Is a "blowout" for you any double digit lead?
Where do you see 9 blowouts? I see two maybe three.
I love the shout out and the optimism, but I don't see us killing them. They still have a lot of talent on their roster (perhaps even more than us at this point) and match up very well on defense against Denard and our offense.
It's going to be closer than you think - I still think we are the better team and that we win, but I don't see a blow out by any means.
Would love to see what you predict unfold - but I just don't see it happening realistically. Can't Raback anything though.
People are getting too cautious about the Sparty game. If you don't want to jinx us, OK, but look, we've been their Super Bowl forever, and we've won 70% of the time overall. (In Ann Arbor we've won more like 80-90% of the time since Bo took over.)
Yeah, I know about the last four years, but we weren't a good team from 2008-10 - we were worse than MSU during that time. It was not a surprise we lost to them then. Last year we were, at best, MSU's equal (they also won 11 games and went 7-1 in league play), so it's not that surprising we lost to them on the road. Now we look like the better team. This series really hasn't been that unpredictable. Usually the better team wins.
going to the Rose Bowl too.
As long as Alabama is going to the title game, I'm fine with that projection.
Michigan is beginning to look like possibly the only team in the Legends Division with both a quality offensive line and a competent defense. And none of the eligible teams out of the Leaders Division impress me. So, I like our chances. That said, getting a W in Lincoln is never an easy thing to do, no matter what kind of problems the Huskers seem to be having.
If we end up in the Rose, I hope Oregon wins out and we play Stanford. I'm sick of playing USC.
Or an Oregon State miracle. I think tickets would be easier to come by on the secondary market.
If we play Stanford, I hope we are up 49-0 when they call the game with 8 minutes remaining.
long way to go.
Because online speculation and discussion between fans about our schedule TOTALLY influences the outcome of a game!
Keeping realistic expectations also makes this board a little more pleasant. Two weeks ago, we were a terrible team without a QB and would have been lucky to go 7-5. Now, we beat a wildly overrated Purdue team and all the sudden we are scoring 45 on sparty and walking away with the B1G championship?
The "one game at a time" mantra is the only thing that isn't realistic.
Yeah, people saying that we're a shoo-in for the Rose Bowl are being silly, but there's nothing wrong with speculating about our Bowl hopes
"Normal" is in the eye of the beholder. I have thought all along that this team can win the Big Ten Championship, even after the blowout at Bama. I still contend that if Michigan had played a tomato can instead of Bama, everyone would be talking about how great Michigan is at 4-1 and how it took six turnovers for top ten ND to get a 7-point victory over Michigan at home.
As much as I hate to say it, I think Ohio is the best team in the conference. Luckily, they can't go to the Rose Bowl. Including Ohio's ineligibility, every team in the Big Ten has a "fatal flaw" that can be exploited by Michigan. This team has a very good chance to make it to the Rose Bowl.
I'm gaining more confidence that we will end up with a 10-2 record. Hopefully the running game will improve through the season, so at least one or two of the RB can carry half the load from Robinson. The defense will be stellar by the end of the season.
I think you may be either underestimating our opponents or over estimating our team.
We COULD be 10-2, but we could also be 8-4 at the end of the season. Why?
Northwestern, little bro, Nebraska and OSU Are all game that we can lose. Not saying that we will, but assuming a loss to osu, is it that unfathomable that we lose one game to either MSU, northwestern or Nebraska?
If Nebrasak is without Burkhead, they really don't have much chance of winning against either Michigan or MSU. I don't really see Northwestern as much of a threat either. That leaves MSU and OSU, so there is a good liklihood that the game against MSU will determine who plays in the CCG.
I'm unsure why everyone thinks the loss of Burkhead is the end of Nebraska. I actually think Abdullah (sp?) has looked like a better back this year when they've both been playing. I think their defense is a WAY bigger problem for them than Burkhead being hurt.
Burkhead is the second most important part of their offense. Against Ohio he was averaging 8.5 yards per carry and had 119 yards on 14 carries before he was injured. He was on track to run for 200 yards for the game. Abdullah had 28 yards on 7 carries. Now maybe Abdullah can pick up the slack, but Burkhead's loss puts even more pressure on Martinez to produce. You are right, though, their defense is not very good, and after seeing Miller run all over the field against them, their fans are not looking forward to facing Robinson.
73 of those yards came on one play. Take away that and you have a less impressive average.
Why would you take those 73 yards away? He earned them through good play. Replacing an outlier event with an everage event (based on the new average excluding the outlying event) is one of the biggest flaws one can make in sports analysis.
Say he pops that run for 20 yards instead of 73, what happens next? Maybe they give it to him 5 more times and he gets 53 yards. Maybe he breaks it for all 53 in the next play (or more). Maybe he gets stuffed. You don't know. But what did happen is that he broke free on a great read and picked up 73 yards. No further analysis is needed - take the actual event.
Turnovers that are random (as opposed to forced/stripped/intercepted) can at times be netted out as an outlying event. But you should be very careful to net out performance outliers - big plays are enormous part of football.
I think that your take on nebraska may be a bit optimistic. Using the same type of homerism analysis, a Nebraska fan could write an analysis that says the following about Michigan:
Fitz can't run for shit. Take away Denard, and they have no rushing attack. As for their passing game, Denard throws the ball to defenders more often then he throws it to his receivers. Just bring a ton of pressure and he is a liabilty to them. Their receivers are either miniature, converted qbs, or true freshman.
As for their d, good luck stopping martinez' dilithium speed, especially with his new dominant passing game (1 pick for the season). I dont see how we lose to Michigan.
I'm fickle. You have convinced me. No way we beat Nebraska.
Uh, Martinez has 4 picks on the season, including 3 on Saturday against OSU. As a new Omaha resident, however, I can confirm the rest of this type of take, very typical of Nebraska fans.
For some reason, they think they'll just be able to "shut down Denard" with their Swiss cheese defense, which is worse than last year's, which, if I remember correctly, 45-17. Think they weren't keying in on Denard then?
I was right there with ya man. I was in Omaha from June 2011 until this fall, and yes, Nebraska fans believe they are the best thing since sliced bread.
I expect that we're going to drop a game in Big 10 play. I just hope it's not to the 'Huskers or the Spartans (or if it must be one of them that it's the one that loses to the other and thus has at least two big ten loses). I kinda suspect that it won't be one we're expecting though. Northwestern seems like the biggest "trap" game left... Both Ohio and Nebraska will be tough in their home stadiums. I suspect that we'll escape Lincoln with a shootout win, so that pretty much leaves winning in the 'Shoe.
I think we're going to get after Sparty, but I don't think it'll be a blowout so much as a defensive slugfest. I forsee us effectively shutting down their run game and their passing game pretty much limits itself. Similarly I expect that they'll give Denard fits, as they usually do, but that we'll still gind out a couple good drives: 17-6 W.
But yeah... The Rose Bowl seems totally doable for us this year. We look like the most complete squad in the Big Ten, let alone our division. All the love the media types are giving Ohio State seems unwarrented to me. I suspect they'd be 3-2 or even 2-3 if they'd had our schedule... We're just discovering the team we've got right now because Alabama was impossible to measure up to, Air Force is an oddball and we litterally threw the game away at ND.
As for our opponent, I suspect that it'll be USC, though Stanford is certainly possible, and college football is an unpredicable beast. I see Oregon going the distance and getting to the NC game.
I hope it's anyone other than Oregon, otherwise we can write the Rose Bowl off as a loss right now. As much as I do not want to deal with maybe having to lose to them again, I hope that if we get to the Rose Bowl, we play USC. Someone in the B1G needs to beat USC eventually. Might as well be us.
At this point I think our D is good enough to slow/stop anybody we play (including a bowl oppoent if we keep improving without major injuries) The D will keep us in any game, but isn't elite enough to win any for us alone.
Which leads to the problem . . . our O. Inconsistency is the name of the game here. Rushing game getting consistent yards? nope QB consistenttly scoring more TDs than INT's? nope. Downfield passing game consistently setting up the running game? nope Feature back getting YAC improving each game? nope OC consistently taking what the other teams D is giving us? nope. The list goes on and on. I don't think we suck on offense by any means, when we're on, we're really fucking on! But knowing what we've got from game to game?
I'm not worried about an opposing D shutting us down (there aren't any left really), I'm worried about our O shutting itself down.
My prediction is we lose any game where we don't score 28 pts, thats our cut-off. Score 28 & we win, even if it's close.
Nebraska = W
MSU = W
OSU = L
My prediction is we lose any game where we don't score 28 pts, thats our cut-off.
So you're predicting that every team left on the schedule will score at least 27 points against us?
No, that's not what he said. Every game we have lost since Hoke came in we have scored fewer than 20 points. Every game we have won, save the Sugar Bowl, we have scored at least 28 points. So, our offense tends to either work and score 28 points or not work and score 20 or fewer points. So, if we continue that trend, 28 points gets us a win in 4 quarters. If we don't get to that, then we tend to only get 2 TDs and maybe a couple of FGs, meaning that the opponent only has to score 20 points or so to beat us.
Are you saying that the key to winning games is having your offense and defense both work, thereby scoring more points than the opponent?
Our offense either works or it doesn't. 28 points means its working and we win.
I just took a look at Minnesota's schedule and i fully expect them only to win one more game against Illinois.
Michigan to the Rose Bowl seems like a very likely outcome this season. Like others, i expect we will lose one more game, one we should win but of course we blow it. State we should win just by getting pressure up the center and making Maxwell scramble and throw. Nebraska will be predictable as hell by the time we play them. I think ohio will be over confident going into The Game and we will squeeze out a very narrow victory.
I'm terrified of what will happen at osu. I'd consider msu the toss up and maybe Nebraska looking better now but those could be real tough.
Our main competitors for the division crown - Nebraska and MSU - have each lost to Ohio already. Even if we lose to Ohio, we should make the title game if we beat Nebraska and MSU. And in the title game, it looks like we would play Wisconsin by default, as they're the only team in the other division that isn't either ethically questionable or awful at football.
As much as I'd like it to be, the State game will not be a blowout. MSU will bring their A-game, especially if they lose next week. Their Rose Bowl hopes are on life-support.
That having been said, I hope we pummel them into submission by halftime.
ESPN's Big Ten stuff. Bennett and Rittenburg are usually very level-headed IMO and they seem to have a handle on things a lot more than other national media pundits.
Bennett and Rittenberg are ok, for ESPN, but they don't do any sort of real analysis (more of ESPNs fault, not theirs) and just regurgitate what everyone else is saying about each team. They also have a not-so-concealed boner for all things Ohio State and constantly overrated Michigan State. Other than that, I think they are ok.
Yeah, the guys on the Big Ten Blog never say anything that they haven't seen on ESPN or the BTN; or read in the newspaper. Their preseason rankings and awards are interesting (just because those are fun to discuss), but I pretty much ignore their in-season stuff.
Those two annointed MSU the team to beat in the B1G after the win over Boise, then spent the last two weeks talking up Purdue only to go quiet when Michigan beat them. Also, they definitely have an anti-Michigan bias.
Perhaps, but Michigan did get pummelled by Alabama and Denard laid an egg against ND (or six of them, actually). They can be forgiven if they're a bit skeptical of U-M until we beat a ranked team.
They anointed Gholston. The 4th best player in the conference. Denard was #6. Enough said.
MSU's 2nd half adjustments shut down Indiana, and Ohio is looking better every week.
I expect that Maxwell-to-Burbridge will be a lethal combination by the time we face Sparty, especially in play action. AB had some very nice catches on Saturday, and he has a size advantage over just about everyone. The last two years, Sparty's defense has created real problems for Denard, and I suspect that their defensive scheme will mirror ND's closely. While Denard punished Purdue, their defense really has only two playmakers. Sparty has a few more than that. This game is no 'gimme'.
Braxton Miller is looking downright scary now. I'm not in full-on freak-out mode over him like some on this board (see: http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/football-speed-braxton-faster-denard). And Ohio's defense seems a little shaky. Still, The Game is in Columbus, it's Urban's Ohio debut against U-M, it'll be their bowl game, and they could be the spoiler for our potential Rose Bowl berth. Plenty for them to play for.
The other games are entirely winnable, unless Borges puts another play-calling turd in the punchbowl like he did against Iowa last year. After Saturday, Nebraska doesn't scare me as much as they otherwise might have. Northwestern might be a trap game, but I have to believe we're better than Penn State, so we should be in good shape there, too.
You realize that burbridge was doing that against INDIANA'S defense? Their players wouldn't even be 2nd string here.
ohio doesn't have a defense. At all. Period. Denard is better than martinez. They struggled with martinez. They also got burned by Denard last year.
Burbridge has 10 catches on the year. Eight of them came against Indiana. He had 14 yards prior to last weekend, then 134 against Indiana.
This could be a late- or mid-season breakout like Roy Roundtree in 2009, but the jury's still out on him.
Burbridge was great against Indiana, but he had mostly 1-on-1 coverage vs. what looked to be a subpar corner. He's going to be good, but it's always dicey to rely on a true freshman on the road, especially in that type of environment. And I have to believe we'll get more pressure than IU did against that OL, despite the anemic pass rush so far.
If Borges has embraced the bubble/laser, we should have success. IU killed Sparty with this and its variants in the first half. When they adjusted, IU didn't have the inside ground game to shift to in response. We do.
But I agree this is still a tough game. Everyone needs to be cautious of 1-week extrapolation (something the media did to build up Purdue and downplay M).
And Wolverine Devotee's and Magnus's, as well.
Still, I expect that AB will burn us a couple of times if we can't get a meaningful pass rush on Maxwell. Our D scheme, as ever, will stack against the run, in an effort to stop Bell (which was somewhat effect for other teams when Sparty's receivers couldn't find the handle on the ball). That implies Burbridge will get 1-on-1 coverage. If he's still got the hot hands, look out. I don't know that he'd be a difference maker (a la Braylon Edwards a few years back) but in a close game, he could be.
MSU's 2nd half adjustments didn't shut down Indiana. Indiana shut down Indiana by refusing to throw the ball more than two yards, and by playing not to lose.
Nothing like passing when up 3 with 6 minutes left in the game. Indiana went three and out all incomplete passes. Took 7 seconds off the clock and punted. Run the damn ball.
project us to either Rose or Capital One http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections
I definately think Michigan is in the hunt for the conference championship and there's lots to be optimistic about, but all we've really proven so far is that the pre-game hype on Purdue was grossly overblown. The Big 10 is definately down this year, but we're just as flawed a team as every one of our opponents. I'd feel a lot better about our chances if the OL showed an ability to run block better than it has. We need teams to resepct Toussaint as a running threat more, otherwise they'll stack up against Denard and make him beat folks with this arm and this is usually a recipe for losing.
Everyone overlooking northwestern?
They just lost to Penn State. Let me know when they make it out of the Nebraska game and I'll start worrying about them.
They gave up 29 points to indiana and 39 to penn state. They also let matt mgloin score the game winning RUSHING TD.
(only Illinois left), and getting to 5 wins versus Minny & Iowa would have been very likely. Then they would have needed just 1 big upset vs Neb, MSU or Mich to get to 6-2 and have a chance.
But that PSU comeback blew their sneak attack.
As I recall, many people here - including me - projected 9-3 as a record this year, but having seen this tidbit from ESPN, I went back through our records in the last dozen seasons which were capped with a Michigan appearance in the Rose Bowl. It turns out that the average number of wins for us in that span in a Rose Bowl year is 9.5, so I could see a 9-3 record getting us to Pasadena assuming a win in the BTCG as well (after all, an 8-3-0 record got us there once). If the defense in particular can continue to keep us in games as they have, then it is definitely plausible, I would say.
As for the OP's point about the MSU game, a small point to consider is that State's rushing defense in particular is pretty good statistically and will probably show up for the game. Teams are averaging only 3.0 yards per carry against them with only 2 rushing TDs, so we do have to be concerned about the ground game. I say that because we're an excellent rushing team this year, and really, I think the more balanced team overall (consider also that we have a better pass defense statistically than they do and more weapons on offense overall), but I don't see a blowout necessarily and we should still be wary. It is definitely winnable - the Spartans are a very vulnerable team.
Every game I've watched, including Indiana and EMU at times got pressure up the middle, even without blitzing. I don't think I've ever seen an Indiana team get so much pressure just by rushing four.
I still say we bitch-slap MSU by two TDs or more.
I know it will not happen but I would love a BCS rematch with ND in Pasadena.. make the lucky irish 0-10 in Bcs games
I wish that we were suddenly some invincible scoring machine, but the win over Purdue doesn't change the fact that our team has some serious deficiencies. We still can't throw the football, our 4-man pass rush is just okay, and we haven't produced any yardage from the RB position.
I'd love to say we're going to win out, but I think we are a team that could lose to Nebraska, MSU, Ohio, or even Northwestern. We are not the type of team that you can just stamp "W" next to any of those games.
That said, I do like our chances to win the B1G, and believe that we will beat MSU in a close game, but I also think we lose at least one more game.
So Ohio has really helped us by giving our 2 major competitiors for the division each a loss. Many thanks Ohio!
Now just take care of our own business.
I said after the game Sat agasint Purdue that the only team that scares me is Neb. Then after watching Neb Ohio game at night I couldn't decide whether both O's were that good or both D's were that bad. I'm leaning towards D's that bad, which is encouraging.
Our D is good and only getting better.
The entire season comes down to Denard not making mind-blowingly head-asplode decisions - specifically in the MSU and Neb games.
can keep playing like they have been and Denard and Borges do what they did Saturday I can go with this predicition. Run Denard and Fitz first, pass second and good things happen.
The D has been getting better and better and that just hammers in the fact that we have amazing coaches.....like we didnt already know this :-)
Very good Monday
why this is offtopic?
Weren't half of their talking heads just calling for us to lose to Purdue? Idiots
Anyone else notice that someone went through and set "Offtopic" flags on every post in this thread?
just noticed that...I was like "how was my post off topic?"
Mods: Can you track what MGoUser goes through forums and just labels any comment "Offtopic"? It is very annoying when they do that. I upvoted almost half the comments so they weren't neg-bombed, and they were not offtopic.
There's more than one person doing that. I just went back and upvoted everyone, even after you did it. Wonder who peed in their cornflakes.
Don't want to look to far ahead? Don't click, simple as that