Ed Feng at the Power Rank predicts M by 7.7 vs. Utah
He was 7-2 last week in CFB predictions. For those not familiar, Ed writes sports analytics at Grantland, lives in Ann Arbor, and is a Stanford PhD. Here are this week's picks.
September 15th, 2014 at 3:44 PM ^
How can a team win by 7.7?!?
September 15th, 2014 at 3:51 PM ^
A downswing in the economy will cause the value of extra points to decrease from 1 point to 0.7 points
September 16th, 2014 at 1:52 PM ^
But then a TD[+ep] would be 6.7, so to get to 7.7 we would have to... man, I can't math right now.
September 15th, 2014 at 3:51 PM ^
When I listen to the podcast of the Thursday morning WTKA show with Brian, I'm always annoyed by Feng and never know why he's on the show. Sam should just be talking to Brian only during that time. I don't mind opposing opinions but they should be aired in later segments. IMO, even Sam talks too much during the time Brian is on air...I guess getting Sam to talk less is hoping for too much though.
September 15th, 2014 at 3:54 PM ^
Completely agree. I don't even like Craig Ross on there. Brian seems to interupt Craig fairly often and that is likely because Craig is saying something stupid or worthless. Brian should be the only person on the show for the MGoBlog roundtable.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:52 PM ^
Interesting, I love Craig Ross and always miss him when he is not on the show (as he wasn't this past Thursday). I think he and Brian usually have a nice repartee.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^
Yes! Thank you Carolina. +1 I've ALWAYS thought the same thing. Can't stand that guy.
I call him Ed "Another Guy With an Equation" Feng. When you look at his rankings, several teams' rankings don't pass an obvious eyeball test.
Brian nicely shoots him down in one sentence and the guy just starts stammering and shuts up for a while.
They just need more Brian on there.
September 15th, 2014 at 5:37 PM ^
September 15th, 2014 at 6:39 PM ^
Ha! It does, doesn't it?
There's just so many of these self-anointed "experts" out there who are just hacks with an "equation" to quantify sport competitions--activities that are subject to random variation.
I don't know from where they dug up that guy.
September 15th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
September 15th, 2014 at 6:04 PM ^
Looking through his blog he claims between 60-70% depending on how you define your success/failure of predictions. I didn't give it a good look on how those are calculated but he did say that the regression model he uses has data going back to 2005.
September 15th, 2014 at 6:43 PM ^
Not sure how much data you've looked through, probably more than I have, but I gotta say I just find myself hearing him say at least 1 obviously stupid ranking comment per week on the podcast. Brian jumps in, makes one poignant remark destroying Feng's whole assertion, and Feng then stammers and doesn't bother defending it.
September 15th, 2014 at 7:53 PM ^
September 15th, 2014 at 7:07 PM ^
September 15th, 2014 at 3:53 PM ^
Y'all come up with a way the offense can score 0.7 points and two things will happen. I will believe Ed Feng's prediction, and the Lions with find a way to lose by that much!
Hey ohhhh.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:10 PM ^
Does he really have us ranked 19th??
September 15th, 2014 at 4:13 PM ^
Numbers don't lie. Just go with it.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:17 PM ^
On an unrelated note, 19 is definitely the ugliest 2-digit number.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^
You may not say that in a few years.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:35 PM ^
Steve Yzerman disagrees, sir.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:50 PM ^
I like some athletes that have or do wear that number, I just think it looks ugly on a jersey. One skinny crooked number and then a fat, top heavy crooked number. Of course it could all be related to the fact that the kid on my high school baseball team that wore 19 was my arch enemy.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:58 PM ^
Does not agree.
September 15th, 2014 at 5:58 PM ^
I won a boatload of money betting on 19 whilst playing roulett...
September 15th, 2014 at 4:38 PM ^
Bill Connelly has us at 24th in this week's S&P+ rankings, as well. The statistics guys seem to like us! However, I did tweet at Bill earlier today asking about the Utah matchup and he seemed bullish on the Utes, so take it for what it's worth.
September 15th, 2014 at 5:43 PM ^
Can't be too bullish, he's got them ranked at #45 at that link.
Feng is actually more bullish, with the Utes at #40. Thanks for providing that link
September 15th, 2014 at 4:14 PM ^
PAC-12 officials. Michigan scores to break a tied game, then goes for two to make it more difficult for Utah to come back. Devin Gardner throws a lob pass into the end zone that bounces off of the crossbar and into the waiting hands of Jake Butt for a successful conversion.
PAC-12 referree Sean Hochuli then takes the next 5:46 explaining to the crowd why he and his crew deducted 0.3 points because no one from the Michigan team called bank.
:)
September 15th, 2014 at 4:20 PM ^
I'm a UM alum who just got suspended from a Florida college for, essentially, having an argument over text message.
I got charged and found guilty of sexual harassment which is a ridiculous overreach.
Any attorneys out there with any advice. I did hire a lawyer but would be open to hiring another as an advisor.
It seems schools can't do anything they want without regard to common sense!
This will be permanently attached to my student record.
Jeff '95
September 15th, 2014 at 5:29 PM ^
September 15th, 2014 at 6:49 PM ^
Whoa.
September 15th, 2014 at 7:31 PM ^
Contact the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) at www.thefire.org. They deal almost exclusively with speech issues on college campuses, and this kind of thing is right up their alley. They do not litigate all of the cases that they cover (although they have attorneys on staff, they often work with outside firms for the cases that end up in litigation), but they are great for bringing public attention to cases like these regardless of whether or not they get into litigation. You can also check their website to see if FIRE has already identified your school's speech code as one that has constitutional issues.
September 15th, 2014 at 9:03 PM ^
September 15th, 2014 at 7:54 PM ^
I hope you are kidding, but if not
HA HA!
don't text shit that can get you in trouble...
jdon
ps. there is not permanent record
September 15th, 2014 at 4:23 PM ^
Who else thinks West Virginia is gonna upset Oklahoma this week?
September 15th, 2014 at 4:24 PM ^
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September 15th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
Yes it is!
September 15th, 2014 at 6:04 PM ^
I would only pick W. Virginia if Oklahomer beat Tennessee last week. Then they will be ripe for the picking, Winning teams arms get sore from patting themselves on the back from everybody telling them their great. look at Notre Dame against Pudue, ND did not lose but they would have if they played a team with a pulse. USC is another one everybody telling them all summer how great they will be.
September 15th, 2014 at 6:10 PM ^
September 15th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
is only giving Utah 5.5 points, everyone else is still at 6.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^
I'm predicting a 10-14 point victory.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:51 PM ^
5. Iowa at Pittsburgh. (0.56)
Iowa (37) will beat Pittsburgh (49) by 0.0 on the road. Pittsburgh has a 50% chance of beating Iowa.
Really great stuff here, Ed.
September 15th, 2014 at 4:51 PM ^
The predictions are a kind of a black box. Any idea on what is guiding this metric? Michigan's strong-ish offensive run stastics, solid run defensive stats, and that Fresno moved the ball through the air against them?
September 15th, 2014 at 5:25 PM ^
Prediction of U-M by 7.7 by Feng? Shui-eeet!
September 15th, 2014 at 5:31 PM ^
How does he expect UM to get .7 of a point? That doesn't happen all that often.
September 15th, 2014 at 5:49 PM ^
4. Miami (FL) at Nebraska. (0.59)
Miami (FL) (33) will beat Nebraska (45) by 0.1 on the road. Nebraska has a 50% chance of beating Miami (FL).
Though Connelly has Miami at #22 and Nebraska at #25, so near a toss-up (I assume he'd give Nebraska at 3 pt. edge at home).
September 15th, 2014 at 6:23 PM ^
last week but he screwed this one up. UM will lose by 2 TD's. I hope the Pac12 affiliation doesnt blind people to the fact that we lost to Mountain West talent.
September 15th, 2014 at 6:57 PM ^
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September 15th, 2014 at 8:27 PM ^
said MAC.
September 15th, 2014 at 8:52 PM ^
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September 15th, 2014 at 6:34 PM ^
My guess is our 19th rating has a lot to do with our defense that still held nd to just 280 yards despite having 2 starters out......let's agree with them this year....who knows, maybe we will all be pleasantly surprised like 2011.
September 15th, 2014 at 7:01 PM ^