CC: Looking back, and a question we don't seem to be asking

Submitted by Gitback on

The general tenor on the board concerning the state of the program seems to be that Hoke was a bad hire from the start and that his initial success in 2011 was primarily due to Denard "saving us" inspite of Hoke's ineptituted, as well as a defense which  improved but ultimately simply enjoyed being on the positive side of the bell curve when it came to turnover margin and 50/50 plays (which even then was acknowledged as unsustainable).  

It seems to me that if Hoke, Borgess, Funk et. al. are/were inept, which is clearly the belief now, then either they've always been inept or somehow became inept over the course of the past few seasons.  We talk a lot about an increase in recruited talent not translating into on-field success and, rightly, attribute that to coaching... and some of us have gone to 11 with the vitriol.  

But this staff, by all accounts, NAILED IT in 2011.  Despite what many posters, contributors, and even Brian might recall now, while the 2011 season was happening we did NOT think we were winning despite this staff's (lack of) ability, we thought we were winning because of their ability.  We lauded the fact that they came into a situation with limited personnel, limited depth, and players who were unsuited to Hoke's particular vision of football and guided them to an 11 win, BCS bowl season.  It seems to me that if this staff is now just a group of inept, out-of-their-depth neophites, we'd have picked up on that in 2011 (we certainly seem to see it that way now).  But go back and read the write ups and comments after the Nebraska win, and the OSU win.

Here's what Brian had to say after the Nebraska pummeling:

I was wrong. I was mad when Michigan hired Brady Hoke because I though it was a capitulation, that it was Michigan returning to the things that made it such a frustrating team to root for once Lloyd Carr stopped having the best defense in the universe.
It turns out as I was sitting in the stands burning up inside as Rocky Harvey scatbacked Illinois to victory or Michigan punted itself into oblivion against OSU, Brady Hoke was standing on a sideline burning up inside, whether it was at Michigan Stadium or somewhere in the MAC. Hoke does not want to lead by 17. He wants to lead by 21, dammit. If anything, the playcalling this year has been too aggressive what with the constant unleashing of the dragon
If this feels like getting back to Michigan, it's the Michigan of your dreams, the Michigan you left back in Peoria when you shipped to Saigon. You've got one good picture of her and she's that pretty every day in an ugly place. "This Is Michigan" is about the idea, not the reality—at least not a reality from the last 20 years. So far. Days like Saturday inch us closer to the picture in our heads.

Here were his thoughts after OSU:

I could not have been more wrong about Hoke. He's not the milquetoast win-by-not-losing sort. He's not even average. He has a gut feel that is on par with every RPG minimaxing engineer out there. Forged by the fires of MAC defenses, Hoke has learned to push when he should and pull back when he should. I would not want to play poker against him.
I know Hoke talks about toughness and physicalness even if the latter isn't really a word, and that's fine and important. It's half of the equation. The other half is putting your guys in position to take advantage of that. Hoke does that. MANBALL: pretty much not pejorative anymore.

Undertand, this isn't a Brian "callout;" we all thought we were seeing the same thing here.  (Go read how we - and I use "we" as the "collective mood of the board" - felt after Hoke won the Conference Coach of the Year award.)  I was in agreement with Brian's analysis then, and I'm more or less on board with the "this staff looks out of its depth now" sentiment.  But while we're duscussing how we got from THERE to HERE, the conversation is always about how much this staff, particulary on offense, just seems to "not get it."  There is no talk about how they went from "getting it" to, well, "not."  

Now... after the Sugar Bowl we were all a little *yeesh* about the offense, and had no illusions that the Alabama game in Dallas was going to go well for us.  Brian's write-up mentions worries that now seem prescient.  

ALL RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A TALK. Holy pants the offense. This was the third time this year Michigan's offense was just beyond terrible; they lost the other two but horseshoed themselves the Sugar Bowl. It was imperative that Michigan establish something VT had to react to, but they never did. Their big tactical innovation for this game was a not-very-spread formation with a TE, a tailback, and Odoms in motion for a jet sweep fake. That worked on the first play of the game when Odoms got the edge and then hardly ever again. I don't understand Michigan's emphasis on running to the perimeter against a defense like VT's that thrives on getting their safeties to tackle in space. Meanwhile, Michigan receivers got zero separation all night, allowing VT to tee off on the run with impunity. Michigan needs an athleticism upgrade there.

However, we didn't think this staff was out of its depth by any stretch.  Now, we act like it's been evident since day one and only Denard, Molk, Martin, Kovacs and luck saved us that year.  We went from calling out other fan bases for ripping on Hoke's looks, his weight and his demeanor, to doing it ourselves.  

These things we point to now, these "basic," "egregious," and "nearly comical" errors that are so plain to us today, were some of them there in 2011?  To me, it's more than "we now have more data."  I can see how the results of this season and the two prior outweigh 2011; but the rhetoric now is "they've clearly always been incompetent," yet that wasn't our take back then.  We Legitimately thought these coaches were good 4 years ago, now there's no way they were ever anything but a gang of monkey's fucking a football.  

How did WE, as a blog, a board, a group of "compatriots," get from THERE to HERE?  Lack of results on the field, sure.  But to go from one extreme to the other in terms of our affection for this staff, our confidence in them... talk to me a little bit about your experience going from "there" to "here."

Bryan

October 8th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^

He was a coach with a career losing record. I stated he was bad at the time, changed my mind after they beat OSU (mainly because I went through all of undergrand and law school without seeing a victory over OSU and was in a state of sheer joy), and then changed it back to being a bad hire in early 2012. 

The OSU game in 2012 was when things became clear the staff, offensive at least, were clueless. How many times could you tell what the QB was going to do. Anyone watching knew it would be a run or a throw. 

Hoke had decent talent when he came in and everything he touched in 2011 turned gold. That, as we are more than aware, doesn't always happen. 

When things go bad, as they have, the errors pile on top of errors. This is likely exaggerated to a point since the team is 2-4, but seeing a punt return teams with 10 on the field not once but TWICE in the span of a few weeks is amazing. 

BloomingtonBlue

October 8th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^

Rich Rod had the offense in such a good place by 2011 that Hoke couldn't mess it up. The defense can be attributed to anyone being better than Gerg. Look at the last 2 years and this year. The staff has proven again and again it can't get the job done.


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Reader71

October 8th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^

Hoke and Borges could easily have screwed up the 2011 offense. All they had to do was not build it around Denard. To their credit, they got it right. Spread, inverted veer, very basic passing game. The argument should be about where that offensive flexibility has gone. Saying that a coach cannot screw up an offense (implying that the team won in spite of him) is wrong. Its exactly what the OP is talking about.

I Like Burgers

October 8th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^

I look at it as they looked at what Denard and co. was good at when they took over and decided that they clearly couldn't be a standard ground and pound style offense, so they found things that were working before and that they felt comfortable calling and just went with it.

I think starting with the practices leading up to the Sugar Bowl, they started to try and transition to the type of offense they would like to run instead of the one they had to run.  And they've continued down that path to disasterous results ever since.

And a lot of it just goes back to bad coaching.  Rich Rod's players were all very well coached on the finer points of offensive execution.  As we've moved further away from those teachings, we're left where we are now -- wondering what (if anything) the offensive coaches are actually teaching the players because none of them look like they are learning or getting better and most look as clueless as the day they arrived on campus.

MGlobules

October 8th, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^

I saw someone asserting that Hoke gave Borges his head in 2011, then tried to hew to (whateverthehell) version of manball he had in mind. Over the next few years: complete schizophrenia as they tried it early, abandoned it, etc. People closer to all this than I can tell us whether this might be a truly accurate view, but I suspect there's something to it. I can't wait for the day when we get sober and honest interviews from Borges and Nussmeier about what Borges demanded from them.

Insteresting to be reminded that Brian drank the koolaid for a while; I certainly did. 

Reader71

October 8th, 2014 at 2:34 PM ^

Nobody said they used Denard better than Coach Rod did. I'm just saying dont throw the baby out with the bathwater. For everything they have done wrong, 2011 was a good job by the coaches. Offense was good and defense was miraculous.

mgeauxblu85

October 8th, 2014 at 9:12 PM ^

Please please can we stop seeing this ridiculous horseshit? Rich Rod did not have this offense unstoppable by 2011. Whenever Rich Rod faced a decent-great team his offense sucked monkey cock. His defense couldn't stop Saline HS. Stop the bullshit. Rich Rod sucked at UofM because he can't coach a team with expectations and even though Hoke wasn't a good hire that doesn't make Rich Rod a good one either. Az will lose plenty of games this year and even of they don't: he never would have beat a team like Oregon at Michigan.

King Douche Ornery

October 8th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^

Fantastic write up. One of the best I've seen. You are soooo correct. I also love how everyone turned on Borges about three games into 2012. He was "Gorgeous Borges" and MANY were asking when (not if) he would get his HC call. Same with Mattsion (who was on his way out at Baltimore anyway).

Interesting, and I'm thrilled you had the guts to not just call out the board, but offer the mea culpa.

BiSB

October 8th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^

1) Hoke has REALLY regressed in his Game Theory stuff.

2) We assumed Hoke and staff would be able to develop talent. This was, in hindsight... questionable?

Tulip Time

October 8th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^

Yeah but Denard isn't here to pick up those ten yards for us anymore. And even last year when he went for 2 against Ohio it seemed like a really good, gutsy decision that hardly any head coach would make. I don't buy the fact that he just "got dumber."  I think he's just realistic about our inability to make certain plays on offense when we have to this year.

robpollard

October 8th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^

Hoke has obviously lost a lot of faith in DG. Some of that is understandable, based on his performances against ND and Utah, but he still has gone way overboard (e.g., starting an obvioulsy not ready Morris against Minn, and for whatever refusing to put DG in at the half when Morris was failing).

The FG is just another example of that -- he thought his kicker (who really hasn't done much, and had a bad game against ND) was a better option DG with the game on the line. I think that's foolish, but it shows Hoke does not have faith in DG.

Reader71

October 8th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^

All of the game theory is built on averages. Our offense has been below average overall, way below average on third down conversions. Maybe he is right to not gamble in some cases. As for the FG attempt, I didn't think we would make it. In fact, I called the block. But we probably don't have much of a chance of a conversion there either. It was a shifty situation, and I don't believe that the call was insane. Timid, for sure, but maybe the timidity is warranted. Hoke should get the blame for the bad offense. But the bad offense should get the blame for the game theory stuff, in my opinion.

raleighwood

October 8th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^

I think that MOST coaches would have made the same decison to go for two against OSU.  They were playing against the best offensive team in the B1G (with the two time B1G offensive player of the year at QB).  Conversely, Michigan's offense had been fairly anemic for much of the season and the QB was playing on a broken foot (although Hoke may not have known that at the time).

To put it in poker terms, Michigan was short stacked and had decent cards (a 50-ish% chance at a two point conversion).  It was definitely time to push "all-in".  I think that most coaches would have seen that given the circumstances.

I completely agree with the previous assessment that Hoke has made horrible decisions from a logic (probability) perspective this year.  The punt from inside the 40 and the 56 yard FG were two of them.  The decision to leave Morris in game after the second or third series of the third quarter was another one.  There was another poor punting choice in there, too.  It's no longer a "one-off" situation, it's becoming apparent the Hoke is a poor decision maker....especially when the pressure is on.

We'll see a totally different approach when Les Miles is here next year (at least that's my prediction......if not necessarily the top of the "wish list").

 

Wolverine 73

October 8th, 2014 at 1:15 PM ^

It was the smart move under the circumstances.  Coming out to run the same play after Ohio called a time out to evaluate the formation and adjust its defense, that was DUMB.  Like, we didn't have another two point conversion play we could have run instead?

umumum

October 8th, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^

the OP is suggesting that Hoke was good in 2011 and hence must still be good, which cannot be true, then I see a few possible explanations:

1.  he actually got worse--unlikely

2.  he was playing with  players developed by other coaches--probably some truth

2.  in 2011, he eventually went with the offensive scheme that worked rather than the one he wanted to play (MSU, 3 quarters of ND)---likely, in part.  Now he plays a scheme that doesn't fit his personnel or work.

3.  he is unable to evaluate or develop talent--I'd suggest the latter is almost certainly true.

Njia

October 8th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^

He's not as aggressive by any stretch - that seems to be quite evident. But, he's also making bewildering calls - like starting Shane Morris - that appear to be desperation setting in. Very little is working, he can't figure out why, and he is at the point where he's throwing anything at the wall to see what sticks.

He's descending into "hope as a strategy" territory.

Wolverine 73

October 8th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^

"Very little is working, and he can't figure out why."  THAT is precisely the reason I have lost faith in Hoke and the staff.  With the talent we have recruited, it makes no sense to think it is simply that all the guys are busts, it has to be the coaches' inability to diagnose the problem correctly and devise a fix.

GoBlueMAGNUS

October 8th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^

3 years ago I was all about Hoke too, now I'll volunteer to help him clean out his office and gtfo.
It is ok to change your mind about something based on new information.


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Michigan Arrogance

October 8th, 2014 at 4:05 PM ^

yep: here's that new info.

2011: hey, great job coaching up the D- outstanding. no complaints. the offense, well you seem to be using Denard the way he should be used most of the time, but RR probably would have scored a bit more. But whatevs, the D! Game theory: good job!

2012: hey, the D is still doing pretty well. would like more sacks & QB pressure, but we don't have the DE talent. will take time there, I get it. offense: ehhhh, manball isn't working and I'm not sure why you're moving away from what worked last year while you still have Denard. Also, we kind of need a good back up QB. losses were all to undefeated teams tho, so can't really complain too much.

2013: uhhh WTF manball clearly isn't working. the OL sucks more every year, but so young there. except we have 2 RS SR NFL picks at OT. Defense: solid to very good, but young. No Denard = no offense. Devin's ND performance seems to have masked the overall ineptitude. Running game total disaster

2014: TOTAL FAILURE

 

the performance of this staff and completely regressed resulting in the down turn of the team, and thus the opinion of the staff.

cp4three2

October 8th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^

and once in awhile he'd hit the gas and we were like "Ohh he will hit the gas." Now, we realize that Hoke has no idea how to actually make build a Ferrari, he just knows what to do if he's given one. He knows how to use players developed by other coaches, but can't do it himself. 

The offense his first year was constructed by one of the best offensive minds in football. Hoke's first year looks completely different without a few lucky breaks against ND, MSU, and OSU.

Yeoman

October 8th, 2014 at 3:11 PM ^

We had the #9 offense in the country in 2011 (Fremeau), better than Alabama, better than OK State, better than Oregon, better than LSU. That would be impossible if the offense only worked in the fourth quarter.

Whatever it was we were running it did not "routinely fail".

cbuswolverine

October 8th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^

"Despite what many posters, contributors, and even Brian might recall now, while the 2011 season was happening we did NOT think we were winning despite this staff's (lack of) ability, we thought we were winning because of their ability."

 

I did not believe this, at all. 

cbuswolverine

October 8th, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^

Feel to free to say we all you want.  Again, I never felt this way.  20 of 22 returning on the defensive two-deep in college = better, every single time.  How much better is up for debate, of course, but I expected the 2011 defense to be at least average, regardless of who was coaching them.

Yeoman

October 8th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^

Lots of teams have a lot of defensive players return.

This was the only time in the Fremeau database a defense went from bottom-12 to top-20 in one year.

It's the biggest one-year improvement by a mile; the explanation for it can't be as mundane as "we had a lot of players back".

Larry Appleton

October 8th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^

All I can say is "something" changed, and I don't have the inside information or wisdom to know what that something is.

Perhaps that something was an attitude.  Hoke came in and inherited a team that were underdogs.  Not losers, just underdogs.  Players that had gone through three years of big losses, in-program fighting, and national mockery.  Hoke came in and somehow got that team to believe they were better than the world thought, and he got them to play like it.  Maybe ANY new coach could have done that, though.  What new coach isn't going to come into any situation and loudly insist that things are going to change for the better at every level and demand nothing less than 100% from every player that that would be the case?

By the start of year three, however, Michigan was no longer the underdog.  They were on top looking down, specifically after UTL2.  People believed that the team was destined for greatness, not just in 2013 but consistently throughout the remainder of Hoke's tenure.  They no longer had that underdog fire in their bellies.  Perhaps Hoke failed to recognize this change in player psyche, which would ultimately prove to be disasterous.  Maybe Hoke himself had that same change.  

Then Akron happened.  Then UConn happened.  Then Penn State happened.  Teams played MIchigan with the fire and grit that MIchigan used to possess, and they were completely unprepared to handle it.  Then MSU happened, and everything started to tailspin.  The team was no longer the kings of the hill.  They weren't even underdogs.  They were losers.  

Perhaps this drastic change in team attitude and momentum from doggedly fighting one's way up the mountain to tumbling down the mountain is something that Hoke hasn't the knowhow to change.  His prior programs were always building.  He never had to pull a team out of a tailspin.  He doesn't know how.  Which is why the program will continue to tumble downhill as long as he is in charge.  It's nothing to hate him over.  He's just in a situation he never had to prepare for.

Anyway, that's just a guess from an outsider's perspective.

I Like Burgers

October 8th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^

This is what I worry about most when it comes to bringing in a new coach.  Whoever it is, is going to have to be able to teach players how to win because after this senior class leaves the majority of the roster -- especially the freshman and sophomores -- will have lost more than they won in their time here.

The underdog thing will only go so far this time around.  They will need a coach that can bring in a culture of winning and teach these kids what it takes to be winners.

Larry Appleton

October 8th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^

Right.

I'd wager that creating optimism and an underdog's spirit is a lot easier than creating the necessary talent for long-term success and a team psyche that can overcome adversity.  Look no further than Notre Dame.  Ty Willingham came in and got average players to believe, and it got them to a 10-0 start.  By year 2, that belief was thwarted, things started to fall apart, and Ty couldn't stop the slide.  Basically the exact same thing happened with Weis.  

Brian Kelly, however, took almost the opposite path.  He didn't come in and light the world on fire.  Two straight 8-5 seasons brought talks of another coaching change on the horizon.  But he had the knowhow to build a program for long-term success, and now he's got a true powerhouse program.  His approach is a marriage, not a short-term passionate fling.

T

October 8th, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^

You make some good points, which I'd like to build off.

 

It has occurred to me that one of the differences between 2011 and now is the overall tone of the press conferences.  Toward the beginning of his coaching here, we would hear a lot about "we're not where we need to be.... I'm not satisfied..." etc.  These days, we hear more themes of "Our guys are looking real good in practice... I like our team..."

 

Ways to account for this difference, in my opinion:

1.) I'm imagining all of this

2.) This team practices very well, and falls apart on game day, and the opposite was true for Team 132

3.) This team looks bad in practice, but Hoke is trying to bolster their confidence by making encouraging statements in the media.

4.) (This is the one I wonder about:) Hoke is unable to accurately gauge how good/prepared his team is.  He sees something or other in this team from a purely football perspective (as opposed to "Raising 115 sons," etc) that he believes is necessary/sufficient for victory.  He didn't see that in Team 132 as much, thus the pessimistic pressers.  From this, it's a short jump to wonder about the difference between RR's players (recruits) and those of Hoke.  They say that the attitude of a team mirrors that of their coach.  By all accounts, Hoke's recruits are, for the most part, great human beings.  What do they think to themselves on Sunday morning after a tough loss? Do their thoughts echo their coach's excuses of "we didn't execute"? Or do they say "fuck this! Hackenberg is going to pay next week for what I feel right now!"  

 

tl;dr:  Is Hoke's "family atmosphere" which recruits often reference incompatible with consistent dominance on the field? 

I Like Burgers

October 8th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^

I've wondered the same things.

I tend to think its #4.  I just can't see how he keeps seeing these good practices and then the team plays so badly on Saturday.  And I don't think its an act because he had that "I know you don't believe me" line about the practices in a presser a few weeks ago.  So it makes me think he's lost sight of what a good practice actually is because there is no way you can have great practices and then fail at simple fundamental things on game day.

And I've also wondered about the family atmostphere thing too.  That's great for selling a recruit on a program, but you never hear a guy mention a family atmosphere shaping him into a solid player.  Its always along the lines of what Arizona DE Reggie Gilbert said about his position coach in that article on ESPN "I couldn't stand him. I'd never had a coach drill me that hard.  Now I consider him the best coach I've ever played for."

I just don't get the sense that the coaches are really pushing the players.

BlueMan80

October 8th, 2014 at 2:00 PM ^

In 2011, the team was being challenged to be a Michigan team.  Recapture the glory.  Cast off the stink of the previous years of futility.  So, I think they were getting pushed to "become worthy".  The team was very self motivated because of the desire to redeem themselves.  Mike Martin and RVB really seemed to embody that with their play and their words.  They were thrilled to get good coaching vs. the previous staff.

The past few years seem to be about being a Michigan team by default and not about earning it.  These guys need to prove they are a Michigan worthy team every year.  They need to be pushed and occassionally get their butts kicked when they don't perform.  "Do better next time" is nice, but doesn't light a fire under you.  They just can't drive themselves to do this.  The motivation is different than 2011.

Tuebor

October 8th, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^

2011 was all about OL and Mattison. 

 

Denard played behind 4 guys in the NFL ( Lewan, Schofield, Molk, Omameh) and had a 5th year guy in Huyge at RT. 

 

Mattison inherited a defense that returned a ton of experience and got them running real schemes and not GERG schemes.

 

That 2011 team was going to be good no matter what.  Molk, Martin, and RVB took ownership during the coaching transition and we haven't had leadership like that since.

Loukdogg

October 8th, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^

It is amazing how everyone knew it would not work out.  I agree with the premise of the OP, we all thought we had a Great DC in Mattison, and after year one thought the HC was a solid if not quirky sort that epitomized what we wanted at Michigan.  I believed all the way till the Utah game that the slow maturation of the OL would cure most of the issues.  However, as many have stated, it is now apparent the end is here.

The hard part is respecting the current players AND coaches enough to stop the constant screaming.  They are done, no reason to continue to yell about it.  Support the team and stay classy.  However, I do wish there were ways to pinpoint displeasure with David Brandon without it reflecting on the football team.  Everything he touches is greasy and needs to go away.

AeonBlue

October 8th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^

I think, maybe, the reason for all the screaming is that people aren't really sure if "they're done." In a world where we were running things at Michigan it would be a forgone conclusion but with how tight-lipped everyone is about things and how much mis-trust there is for DB, I think people feel the need to hand-wave because they're not be reassured that the right thing is being done.

NiMRODPi

October 8th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^

We got from there to here because Hoke's biggest problem wasn't going to be revealed until right about now. And that's player development, and you actually touched on it somewhat. In 2011, he didn't have time to "develop" players. They were who they were and now he just had to smooth the offensive transition for RichRod's players. Yay for an amazing (and amazingly lucky) season.

Now, they are mostly Hoke's players from top to bottom and lo and behold they can't get it done. The thing I most worry about with another coaching change is our new coach will have a bunch of players who aren't quite ready. Hoke has struggled strategically for sure, but "not executing" isn't total nonsense. We mess up basic techniques ALL THE TIME.