S.G. Rice

January 6th, 2024 at 7:07 PM ^

Good to hear that Jadyn has made a positive impression on his new teammates -- I haven't seen anything but I don't belong to any of the pay sites.   Physical talent is great, but you want your QB1 to be a big time team leader too.

I respect Underwood's decision to take the bag and (if he sticks around) eventually play in what might be a video-game offense.  If he wants to deal with Brian Kelly, good luck to him.  If he's successful he'll do very well for himself, if not he'll be in the portal at some point.

Clarence Boddicker

January 6th, 2024 at 6:13 PM ^

Good. Now we can stop talking about him, and focus on kids who have committed, like Carter Smith. I also feel great about Jadyn Davis. We'll be solid if not better at QB without Underwood. I don't doubt that Davis will have a great career here. He seems to have the IT factor in terms of pocket awareness and reading defenses.

The Oracle 2

January 6th, 2024 at 6:18 PM ^

Many of these takes are just fans being fans. We don’t need the more talented guy…our culture is the only thing that matters…Jadyn Davis has been looking great because I saw him throw two passes on Twitter and the coaches are saying good things.
 

Maybe Davis will be great. Maybe Underwood will be disappointing. But talent matters. I don’t think Michigan would be playing Monday night with McNamara or some other average QB. Talent matters.

NJblue2

January 6th, 2024 at 8:30 PM ^

What makes you think they're both more talented than Underwood besides the fact that they committed to Michigan? 

I think Underwood is clearly more talented than both and out of the 3, he's the most likely to end up in the NFL. I'm not saying Davis or Smith can't be good at Michigan, but I think even the Michigan coaches believed Underwood was the real deal. Smith was clearly a back up plan when they realized they couldn't get Underwood. It's great that he won POY, but his film is just ok to me and he doesn't look as good as JJ, Davis or Underwood. I think Davis can be a good QB for us. I just don't think he'll be JJ good but good nonetheless. Underwood seems like he could possibly be better than JJ. Obviously he can flame out in college but so can Davis and Smith.

njvictor

January 6th, 2024 at 11:17 PM ^

This isn't even copium: I genuinely think Carter Smith's ceiling is higher than Underwood's. Not only is Smith a late riser in Florida (which goes to this blog's point of late risers don't rise high enough) who just recently committed to playing football over baseball, but take a look at his Hudl highlights. Dude is a complete athlete who is physical, strong, agile, and fast who has a lot of pure arm talent. Off platform throws, different arm angles, 40 yard back foot heaves, etc. Smith definitely needs to refine his mechanics, but if he gets that in check, he's a physically imposing dual threat QB

NJblue2

January 7th, 2024 at 3:04 AM ^

We tend to see eye to eye on things so I respect your opinion, but I disagree. I think there's a giant gap between Smith and Underwood. Smith seems like a good athlete, but I think his tape is fine, but doesn't excite me at all. His mechanics are weird, he doesn't come off as very accurate to me. I personally don't think he ever plays here because I think Davis is better.

I know it sounds harsh, but it's more that I think Davis plays at least 3 years here and I just don't see a guy like Smith who is good enough to play at a P5 program sticking around. 

Underwood, to me, seems like if he plays up to his potential, he's a 1st round draft pick.

The Oracle 2

January 6th, 2024 at 6:41 PM ^

Of course he made the right and obvious call. He went with the far more talented McCarthy, and it was only ever a question in the minds of fans. This is a great Michigan team and I think they’ll fully earn the Championship on Monday night, but from the beginning of the season it was clear that this would be Michigan’s best chance to win it all.

Why? Part of it, obviously, was everyone could see this might be Michigan’s best team ever, but part of it was also that everyone could see both Georgia and Alabama weren’t going to be quite the juggernauts they’d been over the last few seasons. The talent differential wasn’t as stark. As much as I love 2023 Michigan, could they beat 2021 or Georgia or Alabama’s championship teams from recent years? 

Maybe NIL and the portal are leveling the playing field, but culture alone isn’t going to keep Michigan at or near the top. I think whether McCarthy stays or goes will have an even bigger impact on the team’s chances next year than whether Harbaugh is at Michigan or in the NFL. Talent.

Clarence Boddicker

January 6th, 2024 at 8:34 PM ^

[E]veryone could see this might be Michigan’s best team ever, but part of it was also that everyone could see both Georgia and Alabama weren’t going to be quite the juggernauts they’d been over the last few seasons.

Yeah, you're wrong. That Alabama team was one of the most talented in the last twenty years.

"For the SIXTH season in a row, Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State make up the top three spots in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite rankings — and the talent at the top is more consolidated than ever.

"The Crimson Tide have ranked No. 1 in this metric all but two years of its existence (2018, 2020). But even by those lofty standards, their 2023 roster is historically talented. The average player on Alabama’s roster had recruit average of 94.49, which is the highest mark in Team Talent Composite history.

"For context, a 94.49 rating would equate to the average player on Alabama’s roster ranking as the No. 100 overall player in the country most years. The Crimson Tide are ridiculously loaded on paper."

https://247sports.com/longformarticle/2023-team-talent-composite-college-football-elites-reign-supreme-as-alabama-georgia-ohio-state-lead-the-way-215037980/#2226341

That's the team Michigan just manhandled.

schreibee

January 6th, 2024 at 9:21 PM ^

It's really just as simple as the perception bama, uga & osu might take a step back this year was because all three were breaking in new QBs. 

And all 3 definitely started slowly, and certainly none ever reached the Bryce, Stroud or Stetson level at any point (well maybe uga did vs fsu!)

I think using team talent composite ignores that, as does claiming osu has similar talent to those other 2 when they're really just so top-heavy with WRs.

Clarence Boddicker

January 6th, 2024 at 10:34 PM ^

Your statement was that talent matters. I make the point--with data--that Alabama didn't take a step back in terms of talent. Now you want to move the goalpost to eye tests while babbling about "positions that can kill you" whatever that's supposed to mean. All because Michigan didn't sign Bryce Underwood, but DID sign Florida's POY to his position. You're defying logic just to stoke the BPONE. Just let it go.

JacquesStrappe

January 6th, 2024 at 6:33 PM ^

It does but I remember many past Michigan teams with outstanding talent that never played up to their recruiting rankings because while they had had exceptional individuals at certain positions they weren’t great teams. It may have been depth, it might have been culture, but whatever it was it didn’t translate to lasting success. Ohio State by contrast won a national championship with Craig Krenzel as QB.

Yes, the era was different and you certainly need great talent but it’s not the be-all end-all. Clemson won two nation’s titles with recruiting classes that were relatively pedestrian. Also, so long as we are a run-first team having the absolute biggest stat monster trigger man is not a necessity. We need a great leader, that processes quickly and recognize opportunities to make plays, makes sound decisions, can make defenses pay, and is clutch when the pressure is greatest. 7-on-7 superstars and practice MVP only gets you so far in Michigan’s ground-based attack. 

 

 

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

January 6th, 2024 at 8:12 PM ^

“Talent matters.”  Are you referring to site rankings to decide talent? It matters for collective roster quality and it matters for positions largely dependent on athleticism (WR, CB, DL) but less so for skill/nuance roles (OL, QB, Safety),

2021 QB Rankings:  1) Ewers - semifinal loss; 2) Williams 8-5; 3) Huard - did not play; 4) Vandagriff - did not play; 5) JJ - national final; 6) McCord - NY6 bowl. 

2024 QB Rankings: 7) Jadyn Davis

2025 QB Rankings: 9) Carter Smith

The rankings for the next 2 QBs are relatively similar to JJ, especially with the variability of a given year and 11 months until Smith gets a final ranking. Reminder that Stetson Bennett won the previous 2 titles as a nothing recruit. Do you want the 4 QBs ranked ahead of JJ in 2021 to lead the UM program?  Of course not.

Why do you assume Bryce is a better leader and fit for the UM program than Jadyn or Carter?  

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

January 6th, 2024 at 9:14 PM ^

Stars matter in a statistical sense. However, teams are a collection of talent that rely on athleticism and grit - that combination creates culture.

Bryce is extremely talented and his abilities would boost the upside for UM’s roster, but maybe not UM’s culture. Trevor elevated Clemson’s talent and culture; Tua had a great half to win a critical game, but he didn’t elevate Bama’s culture; Fields and Bryce were great talents who never lifted supreme rosters to championships.

schreibee

January 6th, 2024 at 9:29 PM ^

There's 2 Bryce's referenced in your post, so trying to keep them straight. 

BY actually did win the NC at bama, crushing Fields & the bucknuts like, well... nuts!

Whether BU raises lsu to bama/uga level play, or just follows current Heisman winner Daniels in piling up stats & awards on mediocre teams remains to be seen.

NJblue2

January 6th, 2024 at 9:42 PM ^

Why is Bryce not a good fit the culture? The coaches clearly wanted him more than Smith, so they must have thought he'd be a good fit for the culture. 

How do you know Tua didn't "elevate" Bama's well established culture? It seems like you're implying because he didn't win multiple national titles. He was awesome at Bama, and he happened to get hurt his junior year, but still awesome. Bryce Young won a national title at Bama too, yet he didn't help their culture?

Based off what you're saying, if Michigan doesn't win on Monday, JJ, Blake, no one elevated the culture here because they didn't win a national title like Fields didn't. Fields also made a national title game, it's not like his teams weren't good and they went nowhere. You have a crazy high standard there. 

I just don't get how you can think Davis and Smith will elevate and better for the culture of the program because they're less talented or not as highly recruited (for Smith specifically). It seems like you're of the mindset of Michigan commits are better than non-Michigan commits because they committed to Michigan.

JacquesStrappe

January 7th, 2024 at 12:20 AM ^

First off, we did go after Underwood so clearly we wanted him and thought that he would be a fit. But he made a different decision that seems to go against some of the talking points that he and his family were expounding on what his choice would be based upon. Can’t blame him if he took a great NIL package because with enough money he can always go back later and pursue sports medicine if he is really interested in it as a career. It’s certainly easier to go for the money first and the education later, rather than the reverse. But at the same time, that shows what his priorities are and that doesn’t generally align with how Michigan runs their program.

No one is happy that he chose LSU over us but at the same time we can’t wallow over it. We did just fine and it remains to be seen if a player two years removed from stepping on campus has shown enough data points for an accurate talent evaluation. The same can be said of our recruits. We’ve had some pretty bad misses too and I have been critical in the past of some of the prospects that we have prioritized at the expense of others. 

Hopefully we will be able to improve our trajectory with getting the best talent to play here. But if not, we have to roll with best that we can get, try to develop them, and hope they pan out. A strong culture aids that process even if it doesn’t completely overcome the disadvantage. And on rare occasions, like this year, it can elevate an entire team provided there is enough of a talent ceiling to reach for.

NJblue2

January 7th, 2024 at 3:11 AM ^

That's fine. I think he probably went there because they just had a QB win the Heisman with crazy numbers who will be a top 10 pick in the draft. I just think the idea that he doesn't fit our culture and he only went to LSU for money and that's all he cares about is just off to me. 

I really think it's more because QBs in our system just aren't putting up those numbers. Michigan doesn't have 1st round RBs, WRs or QBs (JJ could break this though) regularly. I think it's easy to see the appeal of LSU as a QB when they've had 2 Heisman winners at the position in like 5 years (different staffs I realize) and they tend to always have a bunch of talented WRs constantly. 

I don't think he's a bad fit for culture or any of that. He's probably a good kid who wants to help his family and wants to give himself what he thinks is the best shot at the next level. We just lost a recruiting battle, it's fine, it's not the end of the world or anything.

joegeo

January 6th, 2024 at 6:18 PM ^

A good sign about the state of our program that we all aren't hanging on a thread over one commitment or desperate for a savior. Compare the reactions below to the all or nothing feel about Terrelle Pryor's commitment.

That said, just because he's the #1 recruit doesn't mean he's not a team player or wouldn't somehow be a good program fit at Michigan as some are suggesting. Michigan's got good qb talent coming in the next 2 classes, but I'd sure have preferred having Underwood here to LSU.

Will add that it's somewhat refreshing to know that a player is going for the money and that it's above board. Michigan can compete moneywise for players. It's not a rigged system like before where Michigan won't pay while other teams will.

iMBlue2

January 6th, 2024 at 7:13 PM ^

I here you it I also remember Dylan mcaffery being a slipping 5 star who ended up right around where Davis and Smith are rated so that talent is zero guarantee to translate into production.  I don’t see anyone on the current roster that’s going to be a star…servicible maybe but there’s a reason that coaches are trying to get Jack Tuttle another year.  Let that sink in Jack Tuttle. Next years shaping to be a backslide.  Would’ve been nice to see the instate 5 star see what’s going on in Ann Arbor and say I want to be a part of that.  

MJ14

January 6th, 2024 at 7:37 PM ^

They’re trying to get Tuttle another year to keep him around the program. Word on the street is JJ is actually leaning towards coming back to Michigan, even if they win the championship Monday. Plus the staff is very excited about Alex Orji and Jadyn Davis. Davis Warren is also a serviceable back-up for the Big Ten. The staff believes he’ll be close to the level of Cade in late 2020-early 2021 by the start of spring ball. That’s obviously good enough to compete for Big Ten championship and he’s likely behind JJ, Orji, and Jadyn once Jadyn gets to spring ball. 

Michigan has an insane schedule next year. Current #2, #3, #7, #8, as well as USC. If JJ comes back and can lead Michigan back to the playoffs and build on this year he could potentially be the #1 pick next year. Where as this year he’s likely to go after Maye and Williams at least if not potentially one or two other guys. 

UMinSF

January 6th, 2024 at 8:45 PM ^

Not picking on you specifically, iMBlue2, but geez, our fanbase sure does complain about recruiting.

IMO we have absolutely nothing to complain about regarding recruiting or talent.

I FAR prefer our model of recruiting very good players who stick around and develop into great players, augmented by a few superstar recruits and well-chosen portal transfers. 

OSU usually loses their guys after 1 or 2 good years, often before they reach their full potential - and if they don't play right away, they're gone. I'm not suggesting hoarding 5* isn't a way to championships - but give me Michigan's way anytime.

Based on this year's finalists, I'd say development, longevity and smart transfers is an excellent model.

All those schools that people here look on absolutely green with envy are sitting at home watching Michigan play Washington on Monday. And the schools with the biggest bags (A&M and Miami) are a mess.

Someone in this thread asked why can't we recruit local 5*'s who look at us and say "I want to be part of that". We have 2 of those on our team right now.

Michigan's run of success has been fantastic - is it sustainable? Well, it's worked for 3 years in a row - and this year's team is arguably the best Michigan team I've ever seen.

We've got it great right now - other schools should (and probably do) envy us. Enjoy it.

 

iMBlue2

January 6th, 2024 at 9:02 PM ^

I’m not going to pretend I read all of that…but having the 20th ranked class ,which includes the 2 transfers already taken, while having the number one ranked team playing for a national championship in 2 days is out of whack.  Call it complaining but I’m actually more baffled than anything.  I think the only lower ranked class was 15 (Harbaugh hired Galway through cycle) and  18 (only 20 commits vs 29 in 24).  Recruiting has been the same if not worse with the success, it really is confounding.

Clarence Boddicker

January 6th, 2024 at 8:54 PM ^

Uh...Bryce Underwood will still be in high school next fall, so he solve your quarterback worries. And just because McCaffrey and Davis both slipped from 5* to 4* you now believe that Davis is no better than McCaffrey? There are so many logic fails here. I suggest living in the now. Enjoy this season and the past two. Look forward to a trophy hoist on Monday night.

iMBlue2

January 6th, 2024 at 9:10 PM ^

What I’m saying is a 5 star falling out of the top 100 is not a good sign and gave a recent example.  I’m sure there are plenty more, one of the blogs ongoing theories is that late droppers don’t fall far enough and late riser’s don’t climb high enough. He could end up being great but many people here thought mcaffery was the savior and well…yeah.  I’m going to enjoy Monday for sure but I can still be skeptical of next year/beyond the two premises are not mutually exclusive.  

bronxblue

January 6th, 2024 at 6:19 PM ^

Yeah, not really a surprise.  Wish him luck and maybe LSU will field a better defense with their new DC so he doesn't just waste 3 years being the 3/4th beat team in the SEC.

bronxblue

January 6th, 2024 at 8:04 PM ^

We'll see with Baker; he's a better DC IMO than Matt House but the times I saw them you could tell there was both schematic and talent issues that hurt them.  Baker should help with the former but their secondary wasn't good and Harold Perkins never seemed to figure out how to defend against the run well and that might just be player issues moreso than schematic.