Breakdown Sports - X's and O's and Jimmy's and Joe's - Michigan vs MSU

Submitted by Space Coyote on
Hopefully this is alright to post. It's Friday before a great rivalry, I assume work isn't on the forefront of many a mind this morning for either MSU or Michigan fans, so I thought I'd give some distraction substance for those inclined in getting into the details. I'll link things that apply to both MSU and Michigan.
 
One thing I'll start with is that we all know this is likely to be a tough game, but that doesn't mean it's impossible to come away with a win. The matchups aren't great. As an MSU blogger put it, MSU's defense this year is a bit of "break but don't bend", and well, Michigan has lacked explosive plays. 
 
But Michigan has been good against the run this year, something MSU still relies on to set up their offense. My feeling is that MSU will struggle at times, but a vast amoung of run schemes will eventually get them into space - where Michigan struggles - and that'll keep them on track. 
 
But Michigan's defense is multiple in it's coverage, which is something Cook has struggled with. Despite the sack numbers, MSU has schemed quite a bit to keep Cook from getting sacked; lots of half rolls, PA, etc. Cook has struggled a bit on the move, and he has flushed quickly when he has felt uncomfortable at his set point, something Michigan's DL is capable of doing.
 
What that all means is that while MSU is clearly the better team going in, there are things that Michigan can take advantage of, and if they do, then they can set themselves up for some success and maybe even steal a rivalry win.
 
Anyway, here are my breakdowns of MSU and Michigan so far this year. Hope you enjoy.
 
This first one highlights why teams generally attack the safeties in MSU's scheme. They have a lot of responsibility that makes it very difficult for them to cover everything
 
Here I look at a breakdown in coverage by MSU vs Oregon. I don't think MSU is making the same adjustment vs Michigan for a variety of reasons, but it's still notable in that this sort of theme has hurt MSU for some big plays at several times this year.
 
This is a look at Nebraska vs Northwestern, but it's of note because Nebraska struggled against Northwestern's Cover 4 scheme (that they played similar to how MSU runs Cover 4). Then Nebraska made some adjustments
 
However, when they faced MSU, MSU was sound fundamentally and that shut down some of how Nebraska tried to counter the scheme
 
This year I've gone in-depth with three MSU games.
 
 
 
 
I also looked at their jet sweep package, which after last week you can now add "Buck Sweep" to the package
 
 
As far as Michigan I've looked at a few games this year for them as well.
 
 
 
 
 
 
On top of that, I broke down their Run Game playbook extensively
 
 
Let me know if there are any questions, or anything you want to see. I'll check back after the game around Monday to see if there is anything that people want broken down or whatever, and I'll be checking back today if anyone has any questions today. And as always you can leave comments on my site and I'll be sure to answer there as well.
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Space Coyote

October 24th, 2014 at 11:30 AM ^

Last year's game pretty much started Michigan's free fall. MSU exposed Michigan's interior and then a bunch of teams pretty much went copy cat within their schemes. But if you watch the receivers during that MSU game, they were often breaking open or at least had leverage in single coverage when the pressure got home. A little better protection and it could have really changed the feel for that game (not saying Michigan wins necessarily, but then MSU has to back off some of their blitzes and the game becomes a lot more even).

We'll see what approach Nuss takes, it'll be interesting, but protection will be key.

Joined: 06/18/2009

MGoPoints: 38962

Don

October 24th, 2014 at 11:31 AM ^

MSU might have the vulnerabilities you analyze, but there is nothing that's happened this year to make me think our coaches and our players have the combined ability to exploit them sufficiently to be competitive for more than a quarter or so.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 148358

Space Coyote

October 24th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^

And these are college kids, and momentum can shift and turn on its head and one team can get nervous because they have all the pressure while the other plays free and all out.

These coaches understand how to take advantage of some things. If some things happen in Michigan's favor, a turnover from MSU, exposing a bit of a weakness in scheme, well, that's what's great about football, particularly college football, anything can happen. Michigan can gain the confidence they've been lacking this season. MSU can tighten up. We can play our asses off and those things can happen.

Do I think Michigan will win? No. But there is nothing that says they can't win, regardless of how "bad" people want to make Michigan out to be. This is rivalry week, and I sure as hell am not going to sit here and see some things and just throw in the towel because it feels easier that way to accept things. Hell no. Beat State.

Joined: 06/18/2009

MGoPoints: 38962

TheBoLineage--

October 24th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^

I can actually undestand some of it--  the Mch-O runplay BlockSchemes.

 

This Pin-N-Pull scheme, I havent heard of before--  at least The Langauge anyway.  InMyBook--  it looks like a Down-Block, with an OL-Pull.  And I would just call it a Pull-scheme.

 

Anyway--  Ive opined before that the Mch-O might have something with Pull-schemes.  ESP--  Pull to LT-Cole.

 

Oh--  and I REALLY Think Mch-O needs TB LeadDraw runplay from Eye-set.  Aint gonna happen though.

 

Any thoughts on the above from SPACE--  would be fine  . . .

 

Joined: 09/20/2014

MGoPoints: 72

TheBoLineage--

October 24th, 2014 at 11:54 AM ^

for you hardcores out there, Note--  there often IS confusion between runplays Lead-Draw and Lead-Iso.

 

I wont go into Lead-Iso.  But The BEST eg of Lead-Draw would be looking at Mch-O film from the Malone-O period.  And that Navarre Rose Bowl team, with Chris Perry ??

 

That team used Lead-Draw as its PRIMARY runplay, which is kind-of odd.  It was a Good Offense that year.  Defense--  well, once again . . .

 

--  it was The Defense  . . .

 

Joined: 09/20/2014

MGoPoints: 72

Hail-Storm

October 24th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^

with my MSU friend today because fuck it, that's why.  I'm hoping that the offense has the same feeling.  Keep Devin in shotgun and spread out the recievers.  This gets more single coverage/ less safety help for Devin to Read, and also makes things easier for the O-line to block 7 instead of 8 or 9.  When they do get on their blocks, they have shown to be ok to good at times.

I think Smith will have some runs, and I hope they let Devin run as well.  With Butt, Funchess, Norfleet, and Darboh, there are still a lot of weapons on this team.  I just hope the coahces decide to roll the dice and play with what they have, which is a lot of talent. 

I also hope this is the game that we see the Dline really explode.  Henry and Glasgow are a handful up the middle, and Clark, Beyer, and now Charlton all show plenty of chances for explosive plays. 

I just am hoping that this is one of those, lets go have fun and play type games.  Let Garnder run, throw, whatever.  Were playing with house money at this point. 

Joined: 06/07/2010

MGoPoints: 9776

Everyone Murders

October 24th, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^

That's exactly right for a rivalry game bet with friends.  Regardless of the amount at stake (I don't bet much more than a lunch, sweatshirt, etc.), if you win on points you kind of lose bragging rights in my mind.  With friends, it's not about the amount of the bet, it's the winning that counts.

Joined: 12/14/2010

MGoPoints: 65552

jackw8542

October 24th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^

There has been a lot of criticism of the RBs (Green, Smith, Hayes) missing holes.  Do you agree with this criticism?  If so, how do the coaches go about helping the RBs make better decisions?  Thank you.

Joined: 10/30/2010

MGoPoints: 4265

Space Coyote

October 24th, 2014 at 1:20 PM ^

I mean, it's on film, they've struggled at times to hit some holes. At times I don't think it's as bad as it's being made out to be, you have your keys and reads and you have to go off of those things because they are right the majority of the time and the alternative is just feel, which is kind of 50-50. I've disagreed on a few examples, but for the most part, I think there are certainly times where they haven't made the correct reads or leaned too much on tendency.

And I think that's where coaches have to have a feel for their players a bit. How much do you teach about scheme and concept and thought behind a play, and how much do you just teach a guy to make his reads and all that?

Let's look at the ND/FSU game for an extreme example. It's obvious on the last play that the receivers understood the concept, understood what the thought behind the play was, and what their intention on the play really was. So what happens? They go out there and they block the defender rather than simply running their route and letting the play succeed. They understand the thought and the concept so they overplay the thought and concept rather than just doing their job and allowing the design to win.

The same can be that way, particularly with zone blocking. You see this look against this team and you can expect that the cutback will be open more times than not. So suddenly a guy goes in there looking for the cutback rather than going out there and making his reads and letting that dictate where he goes. But if you don't talk about those things, then in a way you're putting him in a position that isn't optimal for him, he should know what tendencies are and things, right? And that's the balance you have to weigh with how to coach guys. I thought earlier in the year maybe they leaned too much on teaching tendency and feel and needed to get back to basics.

The other part of it is that vision is kind of a natural thing. The only way to improve on it is to get more reps, and that's just a comfort thing and a natural feel for where to take your eyes and what to see without over-thinking it. But you're still a bit bounded by your natural ability in that regard.

Joined: 06/18/2009

MGoPoints: 38962

AlwaysBlue

October 24th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

game broke my spirit. I really expected DG to lead them in a smash mouth game. This makes me reluctant to dream again. I still don't think Michigan is as bad as they have often looked this season and so I have some hope. And that hope is pinned on them coming up with a few big plays on both sides of the ball.

Joined: 11/23/2008

MGoPoints: 7854

Reader71

October 24th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

I am terrified of their defense. We need good pass protection to win any games, and we've shown a real inability to deal with stunts and pressures. We almost never have a clean pass-off from one lineman to the other. On the other hand, their offense doesn't worry me at all. Our defense is built to stop them. Tough against the run. Force them to throw, where we have some talent (inconsistent) in the backfield and their QB is prone to some mistakes. Turnovers. We need them. If we can win the turnover battle, this is a one-score game. I just don't think we can actually hold onto the ball in the face of their pressure.

Joined: 08/30/2009

MGoPoints: 22968

BayWolves

October 24th, 2014 at 2:08 PM ^

What do you think of going 5 wide a few times during the game?  I am hoping that this would open up the passing game a little.  I am not sure we've seen enough diversity in the passing game yet.

Joined: 06/21/2011

MGoPoints: 11056

tolmichfan

October 24th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

Can we get this guy on the Mgostaff. We have enough writers predicting the doom and gloom, it would be refreshing to get someone as a counter to all that negativity.

Joined: 11/26/2010

MGoPoints: 1433

alum96

October 24th, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^

Break dont bend is a fantastic terminology for their defense.  Their safety play has taken a big step back this year as RJ Williamson has not filled Lewis' underrated shoes well and hence Montae Nicholson has been thrown in there way ahead of schedule.  And Drummond is a risk taker so he has "missed" on some big play opportunities (going for INT rather than safe tackle) that if he converted he'd look like 1st team All Big 10.  Instead he looks like a guy who is struggling without Lewis (at times).

So their system puts a ton of stress on their secondary - especially the nickels.   The CBs as well but CBs play 1 v 1 in quite a few places but their safeties basically must make the tackle / play or the potential for a big play exists every time.  Which is why you see some huge runs against them; they have so many people in the box that 95% of the time the eviscerate your run (even Oregon) but if you get past the 2nd level (rarely) you get a 50 yard+ type of run.

Defense is exploitable as the talent is down a bit from last year's terror machine but in my view you need a very accurate QB who can consistently hit WRs in stride, first out wide to stretch them horizontally and then take some shots downfield.  (This also opens up the run game to a degree)  And it requires a solid OL.  Oregon had that and sadly (to a degree) Purdue had that.  Nebraska does not have it (Armstrong is basically a poor man's Denard) and unfortunately neither do we.   Unless 2013 ND/OSU Devin shows up and makes up for the OL single handidly.

Also their offense is pretty damn potent this year - Cook has been off a few games this year and they still generally put up 30-40.  Lippett is a beast and I expect their TEs to exploit our LBs in space.  And we don't pressure QBs well that are not PSU/App State/Miami OH type of OLs.  Cook makes mistakes under duress but dude has been sacked 4x all year, 3 of those v Oregon.  Pretty remarkable stat.

Joined: 04/28/2012

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