Betting Line for Florida Game

Submitted by Cranky Dave on
Last night I signed up at Bovada to bet a princely sum of $50 on Mayweather (won $14.29!) This got me thinking about betting on the Florida game. Currently Bovada has the good guys favored by 4 with over/under of 45. I like taking Michigan but have never bet on a Michigan game (other than lunch with an OSU friend). Any of you active bettors taking Michigan at -4? Do you see the line moving much before the game? Finally, do you ever bet against Michigan?
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evenyoubrutus

August 27th, 2017 at 6:30 PM ^

I'll do everyone a favor and take Michigan to beat the spread of -4. That way you all know that Michigan is GUARANTEED to win by a field goal. Seriously. Bet your kids' college funds on it.

Joined: 11/04/2008

MGoPoints: 178188

crg

August 27th, 2017 at 6:48 PM ^

I occasionally make small bets with friends on the outcome of UM games (maybe $5 or loser buys next meal, things of that nature). I usually bet against UM since either 1) UM wins and I feel happy about it or 2) I get free money or a meal. Either way, it works for me.

Joined: 04/30/2015

MGoPoints: 75054

M Ascending

August 27th, 2017 at 6:53 PM ^

I will only bet Michigan on the money line, i.e., to win the game straight up. Yes, as a favorite you'll be getting less than even money. But just think how you'll feel if we win by a FG and you gave 4 points. Especially if we run out the clock at the end of the game when we are on the Fla. 5 yard line. Why put yourself in that predicament? And I never bet against Michigan!!

Joined: 09/14/2016

MGoPoints: 21355

The Maizer

August 27th, 2017 at 6:55 PM ^

I don't feel strongly enough about this to take a hard stand on it, but the "either way, it works for me" thing has never resonated with me. You could as easily say that either your team loses, or you have to pay someone else money. Either way, it doesn't work out for you.

If you can really only focus on the positive and are not affected by the negative, the best idea is to bet on Michigan AND Florida. Either you win money, or you win money.

Joined: 08/07/2015

MGoPoints: 10228

Aero01

August 27th, 2017 at 8:18 PM ^

I hear what your saying, but for me the emotional hedge is worth it. I look at it like this, would I willingly pay $100 for M to beat OSU this year? The answer is absolutley. So why not put a c-note on the OSU $line and then cheer like crazy for M? It's not like I'm conflicted, but I get a little pain and suffering money if it doesn't work out.

Joined: 09/10/2010

MGoPoints: 2135

funkywolve

August 27th, 2017 at 9:25 PM ^

I agree 45 pts isn't usually that much for an over/under but imo for the over to hit Florida's offense is going to need to score some points and/or Florida's special teams out perform UMs. While I think this will be a good UM offense as the season progresses, a new online and wr unit makes me think they are going to struggle some against what is usually a good gator d. To me the play is to tease it up to 51 and take the under.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20219

Goggles Paisano

August 28th, 2017 at 5:58 AM ^

Nationally, many pundits and fans see that we lost 18 starters and naturally think we will struggle a bit this year.  Scott Spreitzer (Vegas betting voice for ESPN) was on Dari and Mel this weekend and said the same thing.  He is taking the under on Michigan's win total this year and said they will start with a loss to the Gators.  I think he is uninformed a bit myself, but the point is that many outside of our tight knit group think we are a bit overrated at the moment. With that said, I don't think the line will move much between now and kickoff.  

Joined: 07/30/2011

MGoPoints: 41232

fksljj

August 27th, 2017 at 6:33 PM ^

I live in Vegas. I do not bet anymore. I have seen what it does to people. I think online gambling is epecially dangerous because it is too convenient to have it accessible at the touch of your fingers. Proceed with caution. And yes, I have bet against Michigan before (this was back when Michigan would make the Rose bowl consistently and I knew they would lose.)

Joined: 11/27/2016

MGoPoints: -9997905

TrueBlue2003

August 27th, 2017 at 7:58 PM ^

is no reason to bet on your own team. You're already gonna be happy about the win, what's some money on top of it?

For that reason, I'd have no problem betting against Michigan on the money line.

Just ask yourself how much you're willing to pay for a M win.  Would you pay $100 for a win against UF? $500? Whatever the amount you're willing to pay, put that against them on the money line, and the outcome will be that you paid that much for a M win or you were paid for your emotional despair if they lose.

I don't see anything wrong with an emotional hedge.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

Durham Blue

August 27th, 2017 at 6:41 PM ^

I bet $25 on Mayweather to win a cool $4 and change.  I found it to be a really good boxing match after all the hype and bullshit leading up to it.

I am going to take Michigan -4.  And I like the over as well.  I think our young D will give up some points but we'll score the majority in what should ultimately be a fairly convincing win.  I'm not betting the farm on it.  I rarely bet more than $10 to $20 on any Michigan game.  I'm just too emotionally invested.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30004

UNCWolverine

August 27th, 2017 at 6:57 PM ^

As a Michigan fan I no longer bet on a Michigan game, period. The last time I did it was when Mike Debord coached at Central and they opened up at Michigan. I believe Michigan was a 35 point favorite. I just could not see Lloyd Carr beat his friend by that much, also figured he would call off the dogs early to not show his hand against upcoming opponents.

Of course Michigan won 45-7 and it was terrible watching that game rooting for Central to keep it close. I guess I could bet on Michigan to cover a game, but if they didn't cover and heaven forbid lose the game it's a double whammy.

So my advice is to stay away.

Oh, and I bet $600 on Mayweather to win $130.

Joined: 10/06/2008

MGoPoints: 23205

MGoShorts

August 27th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^

-4 Michigan seems like an early season value line to me. Think Bama-USC, but to a much lesser degree. 

Michigan will have the superior QB, defensive line, and coaching staff. Teams with those three attributes rarely lose.

Joined: 07/28/2017

MGoPoints: 2518

Bluebells and maize

August 27th, 2017 at 7:13 PM ^

Betting should be an exercise in logic. There is no room for logic in true fandom. Never bet When it involves a team of which you are an irrational fan. The juice ain't worth the squeeze

Joined: 08/17/2012

MGoPoints: 1255

JWG Wolverine

August 27th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^

Nice job hiding an OT thread about last nights masterpiece of a fight! 

I can't bet on Michigan games, as a fan, I'm already betting my happiness, which is more than enough.

Joined: 01/07/2017

MGoPoints: 28434

MGOTokyo

August 27th, 2017 at 7:37 PM ^

Especially with all of the issues going on at Fla.  Defense-+UM; Offense-+UM, Coaching-++UM, History-Teams don't forget teams that kicked them less than 2 years ago, Fla may quit again.+++UM;  Want to beat the shit out of the SEC and boost recruiting-+++UM.  I don't think we have to worry about Jimmy allowing this game to stay close.  Place kicking is the only thing that will boost Fla.  I haven't felt this good about a game in a while. UM>4 easily.

Joined: 11/20/2014

MGoPoints: 1438

BoFan

August 27th, 2017 at 7:27 PM ^

I don't gamble but before the season started I was in Vegas for business and made a bet of $20 on Michigan to win the NCAA championship. I don't remember the odds but they were damn good.

Joined: 03/09/2012

MGoPoints: 19939

Year of Revenge II

August 27th, 2017 at 7:31 PM ^

I never bet against Michigan.

If anything, I bet too much on M when I should not play the game.  No better feeling in betting though than to get a win for M, and make $ on it too.

Joined: 11/12/2013

MGoPoints: 9188

WichitanWolverine

August 27th, 2017 at 7:45 PM ^

I'm trying to put $30 on Michigan but Romeowolv won't get my bet in. I usually place a few bets on Michigan per year. I'm very picky so I've had pretty good luck over the years. I only touch the game if the spread is about 10 or less. The only time I ever bet against Michigan was that crazy triple overtime win over Illinois. IIRC Michigan was favored by 3 and won by 2 so Michigan won and I won my bet.

Joined: 09/30/2009

MGoPoints: 34351

Warm Cockles

August 27th, 2017 at 8:04 PM ^

I think we look back at the end of the year and laugh at this line. Our weaknesses are masked by their weaknesses. The Calloway suspension moved the line 1 point. Not enough in my opinion. The uncertainty surrounding the high turnover/inexperience makes this an opportunity.

Joined: 08/26/2017

MGoPoints: 3716

uminks

August 27th, 2017 at 10:17 PM ^

Though I had a nightmare a few nights ago about UF blowing us out. They did by just heaving the long ball and our CBs just fell apart.  I don't think it will happen since our Dline will be putting on the pressure.

Joined: 11/10/2009

MGoPoints: 32040

shoes

August 28th, 2017 at 9:22 AM ^

I cannot be objective when it comes to Michigan and betting requires cool objectivity, unless you acknowledge that you are doing it purely for fun and more than willing to take losses- that's Ok too.

I have only bet Michigan games under two circumstances- as an underdog, or when forced to as part of a pool.

Joined: 07/01/2008

MGoPoints: 9440

DCmissingAnnArbor

August 28th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^

First of all, I would never bet against Michigan. I don't want to "emotionally hedge." Wins should be awesome, and losses should suck.

That being said, if I were betting on this game, I would not take Michigan at -4. I think it is going to be a defense-dominated slugfest, and could end up being close. I would bet on the under, and possibly bet Michigan on the $ line. Wouldn't be shocked if the final was something like 17-14, UofM.

Joined: 01/12/2011

MGoPoints: 413

Regalro

September 18th, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^

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Joined: 09/19/2019

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