2019 FB Schedule: how's it play out?
There's been several threads this week getting into the next football season schedule; thought I’d put together a quick summary of the opponents.
Overview: Michigan will again probably have the hardest schedule in the country. The Big Ten has 6 of the S&P+ preseason top 25 teams, and Michigan plays all five of the others plus #12 Notre Dame. This has a compounding effect in football; not only does Michigan have to play harder opponents, but they also have to use plays they would otherwise reserve for the biggest games. (This isn’t as applicable in other sports that are less playbook-driven). Also consider:
- OSU’s only tough non-UM road game is at Nebraska, and they play FAU, Cinny, and Miami (NTM) for out of conference
- When UM plays at Indiana in our annual trap game late in the season, sandwiched between MSU and OSU, the SEC will be playing FCS opponents
- Clemson and Oklahoma will face one top-25 S&P+ team each in their respective conference schedules
The 2019 season is set up on a wildly uneven playing field, to say nothing of academic- and bagmen-related inequalities.
Opponent - S&P+ Ranking
MTSU - 104
Army - 80
(Bye)
@Wisconsin - 11
Rutgers - 108
Iowa - 25
@Illinois - 91
@Penn State - 14
Notre Dame - 12
@Maryland - 67
(Bye)
MSU - 23
@Indiana - 46
OSU - 7
Thoughts on how things go this year?
April 19th, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
Great point about the schedule, stop scheduling service academies and tough OOC opponents the B1G is stacked and tough enough. I'd bet 2016 PSU and 2017 OSU would love to have their OOC L's back because both would have made the playoff otherwise. No one is getting in the playoff with two losses and dropping an OOC game makes your margin of error in conference zero. That's not smart.
April 19th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
Auburn was 10-2 and #2 in the playoff rankings before they lost to UGA in the SEC title game. Stop with the no 2 loss team nonsense. I will concede it is much easier as a 1 loss team and we should schedule noncon cupcakes.
April 19th, 2019 at 10:56 AM ^
I should have caveated that with unless you're in the SEC anyone else doesn't have a chance with two losses. Auburn also had the benefit of playing Alabama and UGA twice who were #1 and #2. The fact remains the CFP has existed for 5 years and no 2 loss team has made it in and the committee has repeatedly shown SOS doesn't matter.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
So he is right until proven otherwise? The big ten is not the SEC. LSU VS Bama in a championship but not UM (Florida) vs OSU still rings true to this day. I’ll believe a big ten 2 loss team can make it in when I see it. Meanwhile Auburn, Georgia, and Bama will be the only exceptions to this rule.
April 19th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
Exactly. I mean they put two SEC teams in before they put a 2 loss team in. The proof is in the pudding at this point.
Omg seriously. I don’t think I’ll ever get over that 2006 snub. I’m still pissed about it! LoL
April 19th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
Michigan will lose one road game (probably Wisconsin or Penn State) and go into the final game of the season with the division, conference and a playoff birth on the line.
April 19th, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^
Why do you think they will lose one road game? Just because? How does our new offense match up with Wisconsin or Penn State?
April 19th, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
When is the last time UM won all their road games? I think they are better than Wisco and PSU but for whatever reason this team has all kinds of trouble on the road. Doesn't seem like an outlandish prediction they drop one of those. Anxious to see how the new offense performs in those environments.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:03 AM ^
Wisconsin is breaking in a new QB. Will be healthier than we played them last year. Still has JT and a good O-Line which could pose problems for our revamped D-Line early in the season.
Penn State is a weird one to me. They seemed pretty weak across the board last year, lost a ton to attrition and graduation, but have been recruiting well and could bounce back at least on D this year. Given what we saw last year, the Moorehead effect has fully worn off and it seems unlikely they'll have much on offense. That said we have ND the following week and can't overlook PSU.
Assuming our D-Line can hold down JT in Madison, these could both be wins, possibly big wins, but then again playing on the road is always tough in the B1G.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
Agreed. Normally I would assume one of these two is a loss. For Wisconsin, Jonathan Taylor may give our run D even more trouble than normal, but at the end of the day neither (random upperclassmen placeholder QB) or Graham Mertz will be ready for a Don Brown defense in Week 4. Michigan should be able to generate some chaos on that side of the ball.
At PSU feels like an inflection point for both Harbaugh and Franklin. Harbaugh is clearly the superior coach, but can he actually win a tough game on the road against similar(ish) talent?
I don't think its crazy to think we should win both of these.
I'm worried about the DTs that game, but I think Brown is going to sell out to stop the run and make (random upperclassman placeholder QB) beat us with his arm. The good thing is that Wisconsin probably can't (or won't) break out a whole lot of 3- or 4-wide packages, so they shouldn't be able to attack our lack of CB depth. As long as we are able to put 8 in the box and prevent Taylor from grinding us down, we should be ok. Plus I think we put up over 30 on offense in that game.
Penn State is going to be interesting. They are breaking in a new QB, and the Moorhead Wile E. Coyote effect is gone, so their offense may fall off a cliff this year. If it wasn't a white-out I wouldn't be that worried, but they've beaten the spread 5 of the last 6 white out games, so who knows.
April 19th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
Agreed, but that white out night game gets into UM's head. Even so much as for JH to have the team come out in maize pants 2 years ago. They conceded to the white out before the game even started.
For every team in the Big Ten other than OSU, beating good teams on the road is a very difficult experience.
Perhaps if all of the teams Michigan faces on the road are bad, they will win all their road games. I doubt this will be the case and because of that its likely they will lose at least one.
Totally looking forward to the playoff birth, although we are still in the first trimester. Have taken Lamaze classes to help with the stress/pain and have a sweet name picked out!
April 19th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
Michigan should be 6-1 at worst when they play ND. They beat ND, then they should be 10-1 hosting OSU for all the marbles...hopefully with a better outcome.
April 19th, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^
Which team are you predicting they lose to?
April 19th, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
Either @Wiscy or @PSU
If the last two games we played hadn't given me PTSD, I'd say we would be playing OSU undefeated, and win.
I now, however, have to assume we're going to drop a game or two along the way. I think ND is the strongest non-OSU team, but we have them at home and I think we're motivated to beat them.
I think maybe Wisconsin beats us. They always give us a game.
Your last sentence made me rewatch the highlights from last year's game; I recommend watching those. I'm not saying that as a counter-argument, because for the most part your point is correct. I'm just saying I recommend watching those highlights because that was a happy time.
We have two weeks to prepare for Wisconsin which gives me a little relief. Getting them early will also help as I assume they will have a true freshman at QB unless Coan has made tremendous strides in the off season.
April 19th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
Still way too early to know much about the defense and how it will or won't reload and how easily the new offense will take hold. If I'm grouping games, I'd put it as:
Most Likely a W: MTSU, Army, Rutgers, Illinois, Maryland - some tougher than you'd like for the sure win category games here but I'm not too concerned with any of these
Probably Wins but could be dicey: Wisky, Indiana, Iowa, MSU - Wisconsin replaces their QB and doesn't seem well suited to exploit our weaknesses and we get them off a bye, Indiana is pesky because is Indiana, Iowa should be manageable at home if our offense is improved, Sparty is always going to be a tough out with a stout defense this year but I'll believe they have an offense when i see it.
Coin Flip: PSU, ND - PSU will be down as half the team has transferred or graduated it seems but on the road whiteout game is always risky so lets put it there. ND replacing a lot but so are we and were good last year.
Definite Loss: OSU. Will continue to say this until we start to beat them. Hope I'm wrong.
April 19th, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
At least you’re committed to be wrong once.
Michigan should beat OSU this year.
Barring mass injuries or injuries in key places (i.e. Patterson and DM go down), nearly everything favors Michigan winning that match-up.
April 19th, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
Year 5, B1G Champs. Finally.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:00 AM ^
MTSU - win
Army - probable loss
@Wisc - loss
Rutgers tossup
Iowa probable loss
Illinois slight win
PSU loss
ND loss
Maryland tossup
Bye tossup
MSU loss
Indiana tossup
OSU loss
I suppose my comments last night were premature and irrationally optimistic. It would be a miracle if they made a bowl game.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^
This is a joke right?
April 19th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
Brutus is adopting a new pre-season attitude this year. Rather than fall prey to high expectations, he's choosing to lower expectations and be pleasantly surprised if the season trends higher.
April 19th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
I hate to come off as narcissistic, but I'm concerned that my blind optimism may have actually been at least partly to blame for the team's failures in the last decade plus.
I haven't been to The Game since 2003. I'm pretty sure all of the losses since then can be blamed on me.
Get a ticket. #itcanthurt
April 19th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^
Glad to see you're sticking to your guns on this low expectations things, Brutus. Don't blame you - do what's best for your mental health/fandom.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
Shouldn't Bye be a probable loss?
April 19th, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
10-2 or 11-1.
11-1 if they beat OSU. Winner of The Game will go to Indy and be Conference Championship favorites and Playoff participants.
The season pretty much comes down to beating OSU. As is tradition.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:02 AM ^
I, for one, hope they go well.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:03 AM ^
I see Michigan winning 9-10 games this year. I expect the offense to be much better, however the defense will be the issue and I don’t care how many Don Brown supporters there is on this website. The DL will not have much of a pass rush outside of Uche if he’s not been moved and the secondary and LB’s will locked in man coverage 95% of the time. I see Wisky as a loss, ND and OSU. Also, Army will be very good this year. I personally hope Brown retires after this season and Harbaugh finds a DC to get us into the playoffs much like Dabo did when he fired Steele and got Venables.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:06 AM ^
Agree with you about the DL however I don't think the solution is Don Brown retiring. First of all he's put together some incredible defenses here and I doubt Harbaugh can find someone better. That said he clearly needs to mix in more coverages to start confusing QB's and they need an uptick in their recruiting on that side of the ball. In the age of spread offenses you really can't hide anyone on defense anymore, teams will find a way to exploit your weaknesses.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^
15-0.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:15 PM ^
Agree with Larry. Undefeated and undisputed National Champions this year!! Defense is surprisingly really good and offense is a juggernaut. Speed in space is in and manball is dead!! Harbaugh is coach of the year and Patterson wins the heisman!!
Go Blue!!
April 19th, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
Michigan football is such a mindfuck. The season is there to go 12-0 and finally break through, but you can see land mine games all over this schedule and a couple defensive line injuries away from a disaster. I never want to see ND on the schedule again after this year, @indiana scares the hell out of me. Holy shit just thinking about this season has me all stressed out, just please win more than 10 games.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^
MTSU - win by 27
Army - win by 6
(Bye) - TBD
@Wisconsin - win by 10
Rutgers - win by 38
Iowa - win by 14
@Illinois - win by 21
@Penn State - lose by 2
Notre Dame - win by 14
@Maryland - win by 4
(Bye) - TBD
MSU - win by 9
@Indiana - win by 16
OSU - win by 5
We're finally going to Indianapolis, baby!
April 19th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^
I don't see a loss to PSU. Frames sucks as a coach. Moorhead and Barkley saved him his job. No way they beat ND by 14 either.
April 19th, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
I think that's just the first half. Michigan beats ND by 28.
April 19th, 2019 at 12:52 PM ^
This.... actually seems pretty reasonable to me. I would concur - IF - we have no significant injury at a key position. If that happens, I don't think we have the depth to paper over it. We'd lose at least 3 games in that scenario.
This season hinges on injuries more than most in recent memory.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^
I've seen a lot of hand-wringing about the schedule. But honestly, if we find an RB and are at least solid there, I love this schedule. Wisky and PSU on the road are always scary. But good God, who are those two teams starting at QB? They've both lost a ton and have a ton of question marks. We have ND, OSU and MSU, what I think will be our three toughest games, at home. I honestly think we cruise to a top 5 ranking and look stellar until we get challenged in 3 of the last 5 games...
April 19th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
We're going 12-0. Was there ever any doubt?
April 19th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
I think you mean 15-0.
April 19th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^
Anyone know any of the times or when the times get announced? Ridiculous how long it takes to know this. Some people like to make plans well ahead of time.
April 19th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
Usually a week to 10 days out. TV picks the times.