2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V3.0
Hello football junkies. A quiet time of the year so this post should get lost between favorite Leave it to Beaver episodes and Top bands of the 00s soon enough. But for a moment - some football talk.
This is version 3.0 of a monthly segment I will do of UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge. V2.0 (April 24th) was here and V1.0 (March 26th) was here.
As always this has all the caveats which one should read before complaining about anything from this methodology. We know it's not perfect. This is just a way to organize the overwhelming amount of offers (eventually headed to 200ish) down to a manageable level (40-50ish).
Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the first thread so I'll copy/paste that here:
The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes.
Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not.
It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.
The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering UM - so for that I am just going by common knowledge. I've only put Desmond Fitzpatrick, Tony Butler and Lavert Hill in this group. If there are any others, just make a comment and I'll adjust. (I am not including Hayes in this as he still seems like a unicorn.)
Also it doesn't account for a position filling - i.e. multiple RBs are still "warm" interest for UM even if that position seems full. I'll continue to include just in case.
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If it seems quiet in the last month it is because it has been. The prior 30 day period saw 4 commits; this 30 days had none. And very little new movement at all in terms of strong interest - outside of Wr Brad Hawkins moving a bit towards UM and Lavert Hill and Donnie Corley moving away, not much happened.
Changes since V2.0:
- New commits - 0
- New Michigan "leaders" in ballz - none
- New warm interest (Offense) - RB Kiante Enis, RB Vavae Malepeai, WR Jack Jones, WR Austin Mack, TE Michael Irvin Jr, OT Jean Delance, OT Will Fries
- New warm interest (Defense) - DE Ron Johnson, DE Jimmie Taylor, DE Daniel Joseph, DT Keyshon Camp
- No longer Warm - RB Robert Washington (Syracuse), #2 TE Devin Asiasi (Uncommited), OT Michael Jordan (OSU), DE Josh King (most think MSU early June)
OFFENSE (24 players, 6 UM is a "leader")
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| RB | Rakeem Boyd | TX | 3 | 406 | 23 | N/A | |
| RB | Kiante Enis | IN | 3 | 713 | 52 | UM 50% / Indiana 50% | 2 |
| RB | Vavae Malepeai | HI | 3 | 742 | 53 | 100% Oregon | 3 |
| RB | Toks Akinribade | IN | 3 | 799 | 60 | UM 75% / Indiana 25% | 4 |
| FB | N/A | ||||||
| WR | Dylan Crawford | CA | 4 | 68 | 8 | USC 62% / ASU 25% | 8 |
| WR | Jack Jones | CA | 4 | 70 | 4 | USC 71% / UCLA+UM 14% | 7 |
| WR | Ahmir Mitchell | NJ | 4 | 74 | 5 | OSU 67% / Rutgers 22% | 9 |
| WR | Donnie Corley | MI | 4 | 105 | 14 | MSU 73% / ND 13% | 15 |
| WR | Austin Mack | IN | 4 | 131 | 20 | OSU 90% / UM 5% | 20 |
| WR | Brad Hawkins | NJ | 4 | 142 | 25 | South Car 56% / UM 31% | 16 |
| WR | Tre Nixon | FL | 4 | 231 | 43 | ND 75% / Duke 25% | 4 |
| WR | Desmond Fitzpatrick | MI | 3 | 328 | 56 | UM 79% - Louisville commit | 28 |
| WR | Donald Stewart | NJ | 3 | 885 | 130 | UM 100% | 5 |
| WR | Korey Banks | GA | 3 | 942 | 91 | UM 100% | 4 |
| TE | Naseir Upshur | PA | 4 | 137 | 4 | Miami 40% / UM 20% | 10 |
| TE | Michael Irvin Jr | FL | 3 | 601 | 26 | Miami 100% | 26 |
| OT | Ben Bredeson | WI | 5 | 26 | 4 | Wisc 79% / UM 17% | 24 |
| OT | Devery Hamilton | MD | 4 | 236 | 25 | Maryland 50% / Stanford 50% | 3 |
| OT | Jean Delance | TX | 4 | 94 | 11 | Texas A&M 53% / OU 27% | 15 |
| OT | Alex Akingbulu | CA | 3 | 392 | 39 | UCLA 100% | 2 |
| OT | Will Fries | NJ | 3 | 387 | 37 | PSU 79% / Rutgers 21% | 14 |
| OG | Terrance Davis | MD | 4 | 87 | 2 | UM 60% / Maryland 40% | 10 |
| OG | Michael Onwenu | MI | 4 | 183 | 6 | UM 78% / OSU 22% | 9 |
| OG | Josh Sills | OH | 3 | 1595 | 83 | N/A |
DEFENSE (27 players, 3 UM is a "leader" - kicker not incl.)
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| DE | Xavier Kelly | KS | 4 | 180 | 10 | Nebraska 67% / UM 33% | 3 |
| DE | Erick Fowler | TX | 4 | 77 | 5 | Texas 100% | 8 |
| DE | Ron Johnson | NJ | 4 | 201 | 11 | PSU 67% / Rutgers 25% | 12 |
| DE | Bryson Young | CA | 4 | 294 | 19 | USC 100% | 2 |
| DE | Connor Murphy | AZ | 3 | 358 | 22 | UM 67% / ASU 33% | 3 |
| DE | Jimmie Taylor | NC | 3 | 752 | 45 | 100% NC | 2 |
| DE | Khalid Kareem | MI | 4 | 187 | 13 | Bama 60% / MSU 20% | 5 |
| DE | Daniel Joseph | IL | 4 | 258 | 16 | UM 50% / MSU 50% | 2 |
| DT | Rashan Gary | NJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | Alabama 48% / UM 32% | 31 |
| DT | Chris Daniels | TX | 4 | 114 | 14 | TCU 56% , Texas A&M 33% | 9 |
| DT | Keyshon Camp | FL | 4 | 213 | 20 | Miami 50% / FSU 50% | 2 |
| LB | Dontavious Jackson | TX | 4 | 123 | 5 | Texas 55% / OU 27% | 12 |
| LB | Jaquan Yulee | VA | 4 | 151 | 7 | North Carolina 83% | 6 |
| LB | Caleb Kelly | CA | 5 | 18 | 3 | Oklahoma 100% | 16 |
| LB | Devin Bush Jr | FL | 4 | 217 | 9 | FSU 100% | 17 |
| LB | Camilo Eifler | CA | 4 | 265 | 19 | Washington 100% | 2 |
| LB | Jonathan Jones | FL | 4 | 467 | 33 | UM 78% / LSU 11% | 9 |
| LB | LaMar Winston | OR | 4 | 230 | 16 | 83% Oregon / 17% UW | 6 |
| CB | David Long | CA | 4 | 153 | 13 | Washington 50% / USC 33% | 6 |
| CB | Wayne Davis | VA | 3 | 329 | 30 | OSU 56% / VA Tech 44% | 9 |
| CB | Lavert Hill | MI | 4 | 179 | 17 | UM 56% / MSU 38% - PSU commit | 16 |
| CB | Lamar Jackson | CA | 3 | 473 | 29 | N/A | |
| CB | Tony Butler | OH | 3 | 598 | 54 | 60% OSU / 40% UM - Pitt commit | 5 |
| S | C.J. Pollard | CA | 4 | 251 | 10 | 100% USC | 9 |
| S | Andrew Pryts | PA | 3 | 372 | 21 | 100% Penn State | 11 |
| ATH | Devin White | LA | 4 | 86 | 8 | 83% LSU | 18 |
| K | Quinn Nordin | MI | 3 | 1100 | 1 | 100% UM | 11 |
*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader or 50/50.
I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table. The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.
The part where I over analyze:
- Not much different then comments from last version. I am perplexed at the lack of interest by TEs in a Jim Harbaugh offense. And higher end wide receivers. There is some mild movement towards UM from South Carolina on Brad Hawkins but that's about it in that department. And #2 overall TE Devin Asiasi has gone from warm to cold.
- Still tons of work to do on the defense. A few new warm interests on the DL but nothing at all in the back 7 -- which was already void of interest. Lavert Hill seemed to be going UM's way a month ago and now MSU's way if he does flip. He is a King guy ... as is Corley. Corley seems to be headed to MSU, and supposedly they want to play together. Outside of that UM has almost no interest from anyone in the back 7 outside of Jonathan Jones. Who was the only player in this group of warm interests to fall substantially since the last 247 ranking - he fell 130 spots overall and 11 within his position group. There does not seem to be another LB in America with 1 crystal ball is in UM's direction - very strange considering all the playing time 2016 LBs could get very quickly at UM with all the losses in veterans UM will have at that position in the next 12 months. Similar comments for DBs - aside from Hill and Pitt commit Tony Butler (2 guys committed elsewhere) there doesnt seem to be a crystal ball in America for a DB pointing to UM at this point.
- Almost total lack of OH representation. 1 low rated OL and mid rated Pitt commit Butler...that's it. Very un-Michigan situation.
- Yes there is still time - but there are 28 less days then the last time we said there is time. Aside from DT Gary and DE Murphy ...both guys with personal connections to UM personnel there is not much action out there on the defense. Hopefully some movement happens around camp time in June.
Oregon and Oklahoma disagree with you.
Michigan can do very well with a system that takes 35-40% kids in any class from MI, 15% OH, 10% PA, 15-20% NJ to VA corridor, and supplement the rest with forays into FL TX and CA. That's how we used to win and produce a plethora of NFL talent and there is no reason it cannot continue. We've had some of the shittiest position coaching this program has seen since the 50s of late and wasting good enough talent. Just like Texas and Alabama and Tennessee and Notre Dame have done on and off. We do need OH talent - its a hotbed and getting 1 kid a class or something is not a way to do it here. Just like Oklahoma needs Texas talent.
MSU just had back to back top 5 seasons with basically a roster full of MI, PA and OH kids supplemented by a few kids in NJ, IL and a few way down the list of FL prospects. TCU and Baylor are doing it with scraps left over from SEC teams and Oklahoma and Texas. Oregon is doing it with little talent from their home state. Etc.
the lifeblood of a program. Yes, "coaching up" players is important and "stars" don't necessarily mean everything, but the best teams have the best talent guided by the best coaches.
UM certainly has a talented roster. They definitely have a great coach. But they missed on last year's recruiting cycle. They can't afford to miss again.
The biggest hurdle is going to be the fact that recruiting is about developing relationships and most of the Michigan coaching staff is coming from the NFL. With recruiting starting earlier and earlier, this Michigan staff came in behind not just for the 2015 class, but also the 2016 class. Hopefully the summer camps across the country will help boost Michigan's standing with a few recruits who we haven't heard too much about yet as well as unearthing some under the radar type players you tend to find in camp settings.
Ironically the guy who has brought in much of the bacon thus far is a guy from the NFL - Wheatley.
Drevno I didnt expect fireworks from since he has been in CA for ages and is not known as an ace recruiter. More content with him being a great developer of talent. Durkin was supposed to be a recruiting dynamo and open up Florida to us big time. Still early but it certainly has not been a freight train out of Florida up to Michigan yet. Mattison of course is also a guy for the D. All those guys were in college last year and those are both our coordinators so I dont see it as an issue really. I do realize the relationship with the position coach is important so maybe it hurts in other areas. Thought there would be residiual relationships - specificially with Durkin - which would allow us to bring 4-5 kids up from Florida.
Drevno I didnt expect fireworks from since he has been in CA for ages and is not known as an ace recruiter.
For whatever reason, I find video of Drevno the most compelling to watch. He has a certain quiet intensity. Definitely not the slick salesguy, but maybe he's the guy that gets the less flashy but talented offensive line guys in.
see - tall physical corner, punter that can spread-punt, - or QB (period).
Even in the hey-day years M was probably lucky to land one 5-star per year on average --- there are only 15-20 per year and they tend to primarily come from the south or California. (Peppers is the only concensus 5-star to commit to M since R. Mallett.)
Charlie Weis was a big brand (pun intended) at ND and did some big things in recruiting early on. I suspect that Coach Harbaugh will do more than Charlie ever did on the field - regardless of whether recruiting ever gets up to your standards - which I feel is probably the bigger goal.
PS - LSU, Florida and other major SEC teams are now scrambling to flip the last "3-star sleeper" that verballed to Harbaugh/Michigan.
#notwotried
#hesgotthis
Carry on with your holiday weekend worrying people. I think I will download some Leave it on er Beaver....
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That's IT? I'm actually shocked by just how modest their class is consider all that they have working for them and they way some have played up MSU as a new recruiting juggernaut.
Boy its just too early to give this that much thought...
To be fair, many of them had Michigan, OSU, ND, and/or SEC offers and would have likely received "star bumps" if they had committed to any of those teams.
messiah will probably get a 'bump'
a few Bullough's short?
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How 'bout next month you instead write that "Favorite 'Leave it to Beaver' Episodes" post. As much of a downer as this OP of yours was, I'd much rather talk about The Beav.
were any that featured Miss Landers
Obviously, both The Beaver and I were #HotForTeacher
It's a good day when we reveal our secret lusts for 50's and 60's screen actresses.
I had a thing for Carolyn Jones (Morticia Addams). The slinky black dress killed me.
And if you'll permit me to go back to the 40's ... Donna Reed in "It's a Wonderful Life."
The crystal ballz are never wrong. Jaylen Brown and Tyus Battle have shown us this.
I feel like these CBs aren't all that precise. Many of these "insiders" seem to just copy off of each other and if the first guy's wrong then the picks are all for sh!t.
I'd be interested in seeing some numbers on how accurate they truly are.
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Yes the LB in particular (and DBs to a degree) surprise me because talented kids want to play right away. If you are selling the LB position at UM you basically can tell the 2016 kids "you are going to have a chance to start in 2016." And it's 100% realistic. I would expect 1 true freshman (if he is a top 100 type guy who actually is as good in college as his HS ranking) to be starting next year - we basically have Gedeon as a contributor who will return. Everyone else is a special teams player or has contributed little - guys like McCray or Gant. Then we seem to have flipped Winovich to TE (!) and lost Ferns from that class - so that leaves Furbush who has been injured it seems his entire time here and Wangler who is more of a project.
I'd think kids would kill for that type of avenue to playing time for a major P5 program.
The DB conversation is identical with a 1 year delay. Nearly everyone who has contributed is clearing out in 2 seasons - Stribling, Lewis, Wilson, Countess (already gone), Lyons.
There is a reason my signature says PREPARE for a young D in 2017.
I am trying to figure out what negative recruiting everyone is talking about people are using against us. All of that applies to Hoke - "can't develop, mediocre coach" etc. That doesnt apply to Jim H. Is it "he is too intense for you to take?" or what is all this negative recruiting about. If its "they don't win" that is part and parcel with the last coach....
I think one key difference between Harbaugh and Hoke is that Hoke focused his recruiting on the Midwest where he had a lot of connections and was highly regarded by HS coaches. Harbaugh on the otherhand is focused much more nationally. And the risk with that is the brand isn't as strong, their are other stong players closer to home plus Harbaugh has been out of CFB coaching for years so his connections will naturally be weaker.
Also MSU wasn't near the perceived 'juggernaut' it is now when Hoke arrived. At that point, MSU hadn't won a Rose Bowl in forever and never been to a BCS bowl game. Now they are coming off of back to back major bowl wins, are a preseason top 5-10 team, had guys drafted early and are getting tons of national love. Hoke arrived and immediated had highly rated guys from in-state come on board..guys that many thought would head to State. Now, not so much.
And finally, OSU was in a relative mess when Hoke came on board and ND was still early in the Brian Kelly experience. Harbaugh arrives and OSU is now National Champs and ND is only a couple of years removed from appearing in that game. Even PSU is at least stable after a period of extreme uncertainty (which helped Meyers at OSU score big in his first class).
This is a major rebuild in a much more difficult environment than Hoke faced.
Too many think we're going to win 9-10 games this year just because of Harbaugh!, but he doesn't take a snap in a game. Yes, he has proven to be a great coach, but it takes time--and players. Give him time, and he'll get the players. The way we're going, I hate to see this place if we go 7-5 this coming year. We have the best coach since probably Bo, yet many around here are already getting their panties in a bunch. Hoke got 11 wins his first year--how did that turn out? We want a prolonged program, not a flash in the pan.
Let the guy do his job, sit back, and enjoy the ride.
we could get an unrealistic recruiting projection for fun?
Just win football games and the recruits will come. And for a refresher, MSU has been able to build an elite program on the shoulders of a bunch of 2-3 star sleepers. Harbaugh knows what he's looking for, and he knows how to develop talent. It'll get there eventually. Maybe not as fast as everyone wants. But it'll get there.
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Just win football games and the recruits will come. And for a refresher, MSU has been able to build an elite program on the shoulders of a bunch of 2-3 star sleepers. Harbaugh knows what he's looking for, and he knows how to develop talent. It'll get there eventually. Maybe not as fast as everyone wants. But it'll get there.
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The hyperbole and panic in this thread is incredible. First of all, this is just based on what MAY happen in the next few months when it comes to recruiting. As we all know, recruiting isn't over until NSD and while a lot of this stuff is done earlier and earlier each year and the recruiting posts have not been rosy, the likely small class has six commits with nobody setting foot on campus for an official visit to a game yet.
I also caution anyone to too much into stars under a new coach. Look at Harbaugh's first two (1, 2) classes at Stanford. A majority were two stars and some of their most successful players were not big names. A lot of us may not go so far as to say that Michigan is as bad as Stanford was back then, and that may be true but for guys that are going to be seniors in HS, UM is 20-18 since their freshman year. That is right there with Northwestern and Iowa in the B1G and slightly worse than Minnesota.
Finally, and maybe most importantly, we praised Hoke for being an ace recruiter who was able to get highly-ranked players despite declining results. We also knocked Hoke for not developing that talent to a level that was able to compete in the conference (as well as many other things). It took Harbaugh time to get lots of top talent and even then the classes never looked like Alabama. But he won and his players are littered throughout the NFL, and it wasn't just guys from CA. Stanford was getting guys from TX, FL, GA, and AZ.
TL;DR Give the man and his staff time. If JH turns UM around, top talent will want to come here. Recruiting wins don't matter as much as wins on the field and the latter will likely lead to the former.
It's no more "incredible" than the ridiculous, sycophantic HARBAUGH!!! HARBAUGH!!! HARBAUGH!!! idolatry that's characterized this place since he was hired. They're just opposite extremes, and entirely predictable on the internet.
Look at Harbaugh's first two (1, 2) classes at Stanford. A majority were two stars and some of their most successful players were not big names.
Harbaugh at Stanford -
won only 58% of his games
1/2 his seasons were sub .500
Only won one bowl game
Only finished ranked in the top 25 once
No confrence championships
Now - considering where Stanford was prior to Harbaugh, that was great for Stanford.
If Harbaugh recruits those sorts of players and has those sorts of records at Michigan (1st 2 years sub .500 and no bowl games) - he'll be run out of town on a rail. Harbaugh is a great coach - but he cannot follow the trajectory he had at Stanford or he'll be gone.
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"...coked out buddy coming through on those nighttime promises he made."
Quite possibly one of the funniest and most real things ever written on this board. Kudos to you friend.
True and hilarious. Well done.
Actually it does get updated. Otherwise I would not be removing guys who went from warm to cold. Or adding guys who went from cold to warm. After V1.0 Aquaman said 2 guys on the list were probably going to be changed from warm very soon and they were.
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and Michigan is in the top few teams. Yet we get a post about Crystal Balls which is good information to review as another piece of information and everything else is cast aside along with common sense. The only thing that seems to remain is panic.
We won't get all the kids who list us in their top lists but I trust the information coming directly from them much more. What it tells me is we are close on a number of quality kids.
It takes time to build relationships. Michigan State and the other schools have had time to develop relationships. Those don't develop quickly. That's the important thing in recruiting and it takes time to overcome.
Minnesota kicked our ass last year and the bulk of that team had almost no 4 stars. Utah had I think three 4 stars on the entire roster. Good coaches get it done with less.
As for MSU they have two top 100 targets (King, Robertson) everyone thinks are going to fall for them in the first week of June to go along with their other 4s. Corley is a top 150 player and dude is walking around Midwest camps dressed in Spartan crap from top to bottom. They are never going to be a class like OSU or ND. But for them getting 6-8 four stars is a very good class and they look well on their way. And they can develop those players so I dont think they are sweating anything - they just show up in fall and win a lot of games. They just put two CBs into the first round of the NFL with 2/3 stars - and this year's class of 3 potential first rounders are a two 3 stars (Cook, Calhoun) and a no star (Conklin). I think their level of worry is akin to ours after 2013 with Beilein.
http://247sports.com/Player/Auston-Robertson-59322
http://247sports.com/Player/Josh-King-36549
Dantiono has a good eye for talent - I think when he takes guys now, esp on defense a bunch of services relook at those guys and "bigger schools" also re-assess. But they are also now in on a lot of guys who the recruiting services are high on. They are putting together a very good class for them.
Before that, Hoke average margin of victory over Minnesota was 25+ points.
And he didn't play the QB that won the last two games against them by 20+ and 30 points.
The game and last season was a reflection of how Hoke lost the team.
Robertson has been tweeting a lot of MICHIGAN stuff as of late...