2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V2.0
This is version 2.0 of a monthly segment I will do of UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge.
V1.0 (March 26th) was here and had all the caveats which one should read before complaining about anything from this methodology. (i.e. yes we know it's not perfect). This is just a way to organize the overwhelming amount of offers (eventually headed to 200ish) down to a manageable level (40ish).
Aquaman was kind enough to comment on the last thread so I'll copy/paste that here:
The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes.
Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not.
It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.
The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering UM - so for that I am just going by common knowledge. I've only put Desmond Fitzpatrick of Louisville in that camp. And Lavert Hill due to recent buzz. If there are any others, just make a comment and I'll adjust.
Also it doesn't account for a position filling - i.e. multiple RBs are still "warm" interest for UM even if that position seems full. I'll continue to include just in case.
The last update had Peters and Falcon bolded as UM favorites, but Reese and David were out of the blue commits not on the chart. If Harbaugh continues the 3 star mafia other future commits will show up on not on this chart.
Changes since V1.0:
- 4 commits - QB Brandon Peters, FB/LB David Reese, RB Kingston David, RB Matthew Falcon
- New Michigan "leaders" in ballz since V1.0 - RB Toks Akinribade, WR Korey Banks, WR Donald Stewart, OG Terrance Davis, CB Lavert Hill
- New warm interest (Offense) - RB Toks Akinribade, WR Korey Banks, WR Donald Stewart, OT Devery Hamilton, OG Josh Sills
- New warm interest (Defense) - LB LaMar Winston, ATH Devin White
- Added K Quinn Nordin
- No longer warm - OT EJ Price (GA commit), OT Jack Wohlabaugh (OSU commit), DE Isiah Chambers, LB Curtis Robinson (Stanford commit)
OFFENSE (20 players, 7 UM is a "leader")
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| RB | Robert Washington | NC | 4 | 239 | 12 | Syracuse 48% / OSU 17% | 23 |
| RB | Rakeem Boyd | TX | 3 | 413 | 25 | N/A | |
| RB | Toks Akinribade | IN | 3 | 798 | 62 | Michigan 75% / Indiana 25% | 4 |
| FB | N/A | ||||||
| WR | Dylan Crawford | CA | 4 | 70 | 8 | USC 62% / ASU 25% | 8 |
| WR | Ahmir Mitchell | NJ | 4 | 79 | 5 | OSU 60% / Rutgers 40% | 5 |
| WR | Donnie Corley | MI | 4 | 105 | 14 | MSU 44% / ND 33% | 15 |
| WR | Brad Hawkins | NJ | 4 | 142 | 25 | South Car 75% | 12 |
| WR | Tre Nixon | FL | 4 | 231 | 43 | NS 75% / Duke 25% | 4 |
| WR | Korey Banks | GA | 3 | 846 | 82 | UM 100% | 4 |
| WR | Donald Stewart | NJ | 3 | 963 | 135 | UM 100% | 5 |
| WR | Desmond Fitzpatrick | MI | 3 | 334 | 58 | UM 79% - Louisville commit | 29 |
| TE | Devin Asiasi | CA | 4 | 47 | 2 | USC 100% | 3 |
| TE | Naseir Upshur | PA | 4 | 137 | 4 | Miami 38% | 8 |
| OT | Ben Bredeson | WI | 5 | 27 | 4 | Wisc 86% / UM 14% | 22 |
| OT | Michael Jordan | MI | 4 | 156 | 16 | UM 75% / OSU 12% | 8 |
| OT | Devery Hamilton | MD | 4 | 235 | 25 | Maryland 67% / Stanford 33% | 3 |
| OT | Alex Akingbulu | CA | 3 | 399 | 40 | UCLA 100% | 1 |
| OG | Terrance Davis | MD | 4 | 88 | 2 | UM 60% / Maryland 40% | 10 |
| OG | Josh Sills | OH | 3 | 1344 | 72 | N/A | |
| OG | Michael Onwenu | MI | 4 | 211 | 9 | UM 67% / OSU 33% | 9 |
DEFENSE (21 players, 3 UM is a "leader")
| Pos | Name | State | Starz | Ntl Rnk | Pos Rnk | Leader | # Pred |
| DE | Xavier Kelly | KS | 4 | 181 | 11 | Nebraska 67% / UM 33% | 3 |
| DE | Erick Fowler | TX | 4 | 77 | 6 | Texas 100% | 8 |
| DE | Bryson Young | CA | 4 | 291 | 20 | USC 100% | 2 |
| DE | Connor Murphy | AZ | 3 | 362 | 23 | UM 67% / ASU 33% | 3 |
| DE | Josh King | IL | 4 | 73 | 6 | OSU 36% / Cloud y 21% | 14 |
| DE | Khalid Kareem | MI | 4 | 184 | 13 | Bama 50% / MSU 25% | 4 |
| DT | Rashan Gary | NJ | 5 | 1 | 1 | Alabama 56% / UM 30% | 27 |
| DT | Chris Daniels | TX | 4 | 115 | 14 | TCU 67% , Texas A&M 22% | 9 |
| LB | Dontavious Jackson | TX | 4 | 123 | 4 | Texas 50% | 12 |
| LB | Jaquan Yulee | VA | 4 | 153 | 6 | North Carolina 83% | 6 |
| LB | Caleb Kelly | CA | 5 | 19 | 3 | Oklahoma 100% | 15 |
| LB | Devin Bush Jr | FL | 4 | 216 | 8 | FSU 100% | 17 |
| LB | Camilo Eifler | CA | 4 | 264 | 19 | Washington 100% | 2 |
| LB | Jonathan Jones | FL | 4 | 332 | 24 | UM 75% / LSU 12% | 8 |
| LB | LaMar Winston | OR | 4 | 230 | 16 | 80% Oregon / 20% UW | 5 |
| CB | David Long | CA | 4 | 152 | 13 | Washington 50% / USC 33% | 6 |
| CB | Lavert Hill | MI | 4 | 221 | 22 | UM 81% - PSU commit | 15 |
| CB | Lamar Jackson | CA | 3 | 488 | 44 | N/A | |
| S | C.J. Pollard | CA | 4 | 251 | 10 | 100% USC | 9 |
| S | Andrew Pryts | PA | 3 | 375 | 19 | 100% Penn State | 11 |
| ATH | Devin White | LA | 4 | 85 | 7 | 83% LSU | 18 |
| K | Quinn Nordin | MI | 3 | 1100 | 1 | 100% UM | 11 |
*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader
I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table. The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.
Quick Comments:
- I am perplexed at the lack of interest by TEs in a Jim Harbaugh offense
- We seem to have some offers out to low rated WRs who are very interested but not doing as well higher on the board. Stewart goes to same school as Peppers, Gary so that could be a "friends" deal but overall surprised at lack of high end WR interest.
- Tons of work to do on the defensive side of the ball - very few guys are seriously interested. (Durkin where are you my man?)
- Guys who really shot up in the rankings in the past month - TE Devin Asiasi, OG Terrance Davis, DE Xavier Kelly, DE Bryson Young, DT Chris Daniels, CB David Long, S Andrew Pryts.
- LB Camilo Eifler and CB Lamar Jackson (300 spots!?) fell the most.
i dotn want to waste it.
I haven't really looked at the depth chart closely, but don't we really need cornerbacks in this class? I think we only took one last year so that has to be a high priority for this class.
We need to rebuild the entire secondary badly in 2 years (I am assuming Peppers is gone in 2 years but even if he stays we need a ton). See the link in my signature. I think 5+ secondary players are needed in total in this class. Almost everyone familiar to UM fans is gone in 2 years - Wilson, Stribling, Countess, Peppers, Lewis, Dymonte Thomas, Clark, Hill.
Truthfully the entire defense needs to be rebuilt - we had very few 2015 defensive players in a very tiny class and we have a whole host of players leaving after 2016 all over the defense (all the starting LBs after 2015 as well)
I would have thought the sell for the defense was actually very easy - many of the 2016s are going to have a chance to start either as true freshman or RS freshman/true SOs in 2017.
yep figured it wouldve been an easier sell as well. i understand they got a late start on offers due to transition and recruits not only need to meet and bond with new coaches but also want to see how the team performs on the field in the fall. still, i expected at least 1-2 midwest type commits on D by now.
as soon as they start playing this fall and recruits are visiting officials, they should start dropping (provided the team plays improved and inspired ball). bascially the entire D graduates over next 2 years so plenty of freshmen will see significant clock early. id be psyched to see a wide open depth chart and to join harbaugh and crew in climbing that mountain
Did you hear anything about Isaiah Pryor's visit to the Spring Game with his parents ? Coming two weeks in a row like he did seemed to be a good sign, but I have not heard anything about the visit since. Can you shed some light ?
I haven't really heard anything following his second visit to Michigan. He visited Notre Dame and then Georgia in the following weeks, so he has been all over the place. He might just have been too busy to talk much to the media.
Can we call it The Warm Pool?
You're all invited to my 6,000 points party!
EDIT: It's a pool party!
so I snapped this for him/you...
Wonder whatever happened to him...
to see if we can keep this party going for at least 10 threads.
http://247sports.com/Player/Daelin-Hayes-25739
Michigan 50%, USC 23% despite his commitment
It was mentioned in one of the other threads, but getting a bunch of Crystal Balls doesnt always mean "experts" actually think he is going there. Once a player commits, you can't make a crystal ball pick for the school he commits to, only a different school. So, you might as well pick another school so if something did happen you could actually get Crystal ball points or whatever.
Crystal Balls for committed guys dont always mean someone knows something.
Yes he falls under the window of Fitzgerald and Hill - if a guy is committed elsewhere he won't show up as "warm" for anyone else. I just looked at his starz page and I see 2 guys flipped him to UM this week out of 22 predictions. Those are the only 2 new predictions in 2015 so difficult to really call that one when for a year all we've heard is his mom wants him out of Michigan. Maybe I'll throw him in next month if there appears to be more movement there. Majority of his 50% were from a long time ago pre USC commit.
You can include Tony Butler in that category as well.
Thanks, will add in May's update.
I could be wrong, but I get the vibe that wide receivers, defensive backs, and linebackers often take a while to get serious about their recruitment and commit. Quarterbacks, linemen, tight ends, etc. often seem to get it over with earlier. I'm not saying that's a hard and fast rule, but the guys who carry out their recruitment until the All-American games, National Signing Day, etc. seem to be the skill guys (minus quarterbacks, who often commit early and recruit for their teams) more often than the linemen types.
Yes it is strange. Not only are we not a leader for many - we are not even a "2nd" place for anyone but Gary. With really only Hurst and Mone post 2016 at DT and all our starting LBs cleared out after 2015 (and NONE recruited in the 2015 class) and openings all over the secondary post 2016, early playing time - which every high level recruit says they want - is ample.
The 2016 class is a lot more important on the defensive side to me than the offense because so many of these guys are going to be counted on immediately or within 1 season. So taking guys in the 500-1000 range and hoping for long term development is not something we can do so much on the defense with the attrition we are set to face in the next 18 months.
And yes we have 2 really high level recruiters on that side of the ball so not being in serious conversations with more guys is strange. If you notice the geographic diversity - we are far more Midwest oriented on the offense/offense commits (well Midwest + NJ/MD) - whereas the defense is a lot more west coast/south (CA/TX heavy). Those guys are harder to get as well. I don't know if that holds true for the entire 170+ offers out there but it does for these 40ish.
Also the lack of OH players interested in us is stark. That used to be a bread and butter - we'd get 4-5 in a class often (maybe more some years). Maybe the miss on Morrow from UK staff hurts there near term. I am not sure who other than Zordich of the new guys has strong ties to the PA/OH area.
Still looking at about 20?
Commits?
I think 21-22. Confused by this fab25 thing. Especially this far ahead of time - would take a boatload of attrition. I think we have 14 openings now.
Even with 22 I think we need 12 defensive players (2 DT, 3 LB, 5 secondary, 1 DE, 1 best available player), leaving only 10 spots on offense. And 5 of the 6 commits are already offense. Need TE/WR, more OL in those 5 spots. (2 WR, 1 TE, 2 OL?).
That's if we can get to 22. Urbz has it so much easier - just take 27 a year and then erase 5-6 a year after the fact.
Then don't follow it numbnuts.
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It's April. That's really all that needs to be said. Keep up the good work alum96.
Sobering
April 25th, 2015 at 12:31 AM ^
With Satan and SEC up in arms, i'm expecting great inroads into the 16 and 17 class to happen during the Great Harbaugh Camping Tour...i may start thinking of it as the Grand Sir James Crusade
or Harbollapalooza Summer 2015 yeah, that's it.
April 25th, 2015 at 10:30 AM ^
could be some of the buzz about competition is off putting to some of the higher ranked kids that want to be assured that they will be given a chance to start. The best will play approach sounds good to 3 star kids coming to M but not so much to a 5 star or highly rated 4 star player. Some of the talk of Harbaugh being relentless and a task-master might be twisted by other competing programs to dissuade kids from coming here. Meyer tells kids what they want to hear then does what he wants after they commit. Saban gets away with harbaugh like methods but then he has 4 NCs and an established pipeline to the pros. Yea it's perplexing why more top rated kids aren't flocking to Michigan.
April 25th, 2015 at 12:54 PM ^
Dude is skyrocketing up the charts
Toks won't be in the class, especially if Robert Washington commits to Michigan today.
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