1)Better: Win B10 or Win B10 Tourney? 2) How Lunardi has MSU 8 seed, but their NET is 84?
First question, is it looked on more favorably to win the Big Ten regular season, or to win the Big Ten Tourney? Winning the Big Ten tourney really does nothing except guarantee you a spot in the tourney and help you move up/down a little in seeding based on record and who you beat/lose to, correct?
Is their a separate banner for winning the B10 tourney?
Second question, how in the F does Lunardi have MSU a projected 8th seed if the NET is 84? Isnt the NET ranking pretty much gospel for the NCAA selection committee now? You kind of need a NET or 50 ish to get in since some lesser conference winners with 100+ NET rankings will be taking up a bunch of the 64 spots correct?
January 11th, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
It's looked on more favorably to win the regular season, but yes there's also a separate banner for winning the tourney. Regarding MSU, it's because of their name, similar to Michigan football getting the benefit of the doubt.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
I get the 'name' as far as the AP poll and coaches poll goes, but the NET is objective and has them at 84 - and the selection committee is going off NET and not the other 2, so is Lunardi simply 'Projecting' that MSU will win a bunch more of their remaining games, and his bracket is not 'real time' ... right now?
January 11th, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
It's probably a combination of Lunardi giving Izzo the benefit of the doubt that he'll turn it around, and his bracket not being real time (that Purdue loss was bad).
January 11th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
Any projections showing Sparty as a 7 or 8 seed involves a large amount of favorable subjectivity.
The stats on CBS bracketology shows an 86 NET, 131 RPI and 0-3 record in Quad 1 games:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
January 11th, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^
Winning the conference regular season championship will always be paramount, especially in a season like this when the conference as a whole is pretty elite
January 11th, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^
Another question. Do you think there will be a big ten tourney this year?
January 11th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Absolutely...will probably hold it in Indy and get a head start on testing and travel before the NCAA’s start
January 11th, 2021 at 9:17 AM ^
Definitely winning the regular season as we have not in quite a while.
As for MSU, I think Lunardi will alter his predictions soon. KenPom game prognosis suggests MSU is most likely to be 3 - 8 in the B1G in another few weeks:
Michigan State’s Next Five Games (KenPom Odds To Win):
- 1/14 - at Iowa (18%)
- 1/17 - Indiana (51%)
- 1/23 - Illinois (37%)
- 1/28 - at Rutgers (40%)
- 1/31 - at Ohio State (32%)
*Borrowed this from BTpowerhouse rankings.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
That's a pretty tough stretch of games. Our February slate is brutal. Big game tomorrow for Michigan.
Is it just me or have we been playing at home a ton?
January 11th, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
Michigan has had 2 road games. Would've been 3 by now if PSU hadn't covid-cancelled.
msu, by contrast, has played 4 road games so far, going 2-2.
Wisconsin has also only had 2 road games (1-1). Same with Iowa (1-1).
Michigan has 7 road games to 7 homes games remaining, not including the possibly to-be-rescheduled game @ PSU.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:21 AM ^
Love how it’s going but the boys are going to need to do some work on the road.
The general blueprint to be in contention is win at home, split on the road. It’s been a great start but there will be some bumps ahead.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
We've played three home games and two road games. It would be three of each but PSU was cancelled.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
Let’s be real - whichever one Michigan accomplishes is the one we treat as better!
January 11th, 2021 at 9:37 AM ^
Good answer my Horneater friend.
January 11th, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
Ah...finding Brandon Sanderson characters on a Michigan Sports Blog...
#TheMichiganDifference
#ItsJustCrem
January 11th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
I actually know this is true because this question was asked in the last year or two after we had one back to back tourney titles and everyone was saying how the tournament is the real prize and most impressive.
The actual answer is the regular season title is much more impressive, but the tourney title is very fun.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
Absolutely. Couple years ago when UM won their back to back tourneys, I was bragging to a Purdue buddy and he said something about UM not winning regular season, Purdue won in 2017, and I told him that the tourney was more important.
But if UM wins the regular season this year and doesn't win the tourney I will tell him the regular season is more important.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
I value the regular season championships far more than the tourney championships. Single elimination tournaments over the course of a couple days are not a good way of determining the best team (obviously that's the NCAA's only option for postseason as there are so many teams).
Proving your team is the best over the course of 18 or 20 games - awesome. Wish we had a true round robin conference slate so there's no schedule imbalances, but the conference is just too big.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
agree completely re: conference round-robins. that, to me, was a good reason to NOT expand, and it applies to football, too. just to hot-take it, if your conference is so big that you don't play everyone on a regular basis, you're not really, you know, a conference.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^
It would never happen, but I wish conferences would shrink and could be no bigger than 10 or 11 teams. And in football, no conference title games and a true round robin. But there's too much money to be had with the bigger conferences and titles games.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
Well put. I would much rather win the whole season than get hot for a few games in a row.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:22 AM ^
Regular Season shows how strong you are. Conference Tournament shows how hot you are.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
In the regular season, you play seven teams twice and six teams once, so scheduling luck can play a role. (It was even worse when the schedule was 18 games.) Still, 20 games over three months is a pretty big sample.
January 11th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
I definitely agree, but a lot of people value the Tourney Championship because it gives you an automatic bid to the Big Dance.
January 11th, 2021 at 1:46 PM ^
If you win the B1G regular season, then you're in the tournament.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:23 AM ^
For the same reason that Michigan football always gets the benefit of the doubt in the polls and bowl projections: it’s because of their name and brand recognition.
MSU basketball is a brand. A national brand. They are going to get the benefit of the doubt more often than not.
January 11th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
Is that how they are going to build the Benny brand?
January 11th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
I don't know if it's about "brand" so much as that they've made the tourney over 20 years in a row, so people just assume they'll right the ship this year.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:23 AM ^
Lunardi is an idiot until his genuinely good sources on the committee tell him how things are going when they start meeting.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:25 AM ^
i'd much rather win a regular-season championship, as it's (by definition) a better indication of season-long quality. that said, the banner from the plane-crash year was, in some ways, more satisfying, as we saw how a team can come together under extreme adversity...that's the exception, though - lots of teams that underperform in a season just get hot for a weekend and you know they're not going any further.
man, the further that season gets in the rear-view, the more remarkable it sounds. that team survived a plane crash.
as to izzo and sparty, i'd say the same thing i always say - seed projections and bracketology don't mean crap, especially two months before bids come out. of course people who haven't seen sparty play much think izzo will pull this one out of his butt.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
So many things to neg about this post. One has to love a "second question" which comes after three consecutive question marks.
Otherwise, the conference championship means you have played well throughout the season. The tournament championship may indicate that you are your team's play is on a nice ascending trajectory.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:28 AM ^
Winning the conference regular season title is a bigger deal to me. Just look at how brutal most of the games are (Hello Illinois, welcome to Loserville. Population: you). Getting through the post-apocolyptic ruin of this season with the best record would be a hell of an accomplishment.
ESPN, and their self-appointed stooge Lunardi, love to bank on personalities. Izzo is one such coach. He's nationally known and his teams generally perform well in the back half of the season, with apologies to Middle Tennessee State. Of course he's going to keep them in the conversation.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
There is a separate banner for the tourney which is why its awesome when Michigan does win it, especially as a team that doesn't get a double bye. Those back to back tourney titles will always be looked back on as amazing runs. The plane crash, practice jerseys, etc.
But, regular season titles are by far the better accomplishment. When Michigan went I think 15-3 in conference one year and won the title by 3 games, that was amazing to witness. And when we were a wide open Jordan Morgan layup from a conference title in 2013, that hurt really really bad. That would have made 3 championships in a row.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
If it makes you feel better, winning that game against IU would've meant a four way tie championship with MSU, IU, and OSU
Sucks not getting one, but since we made the title game that year, I'm fine with denying our two rivals a banner
January 11th, 2021 at 10:47 AM ^
It's a plus for the tourney title that it's a single winner.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
What's more egregious is NET #100 Duke also getting an 8 seed in Lunardi's bracketology. He's basically betting on two things - coaching and talent. He figures he's seen enough times things like "peaking at the right time" and "sheer talent overcoming weaknesses" and "experienced coaching for the postseason" to bet on Duke and sparty sneaking into the tourney.
Pretty much all the 8-11 seeds are rated more highly than Duke by NET right now.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
I did not even notice Duke in there right now. But FWIW, i do expect Duke to make a run and get in. I do NOT expect MSU to do the same.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:04 AM ^
The ACC isn't very good so I see Duke getting a lot of conference wins that will justify a tourney bid
January 11th, 2021 at 10:49 AM ^
Isn't that what a good prediction by a human being is based upon? Looking at more than just the data?
January 11th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
He tweeted out a seed list on Saturday (basically a bracket without the bracketing) that had both MSU and Duke as 10-seeds. Of course, I'm guessing he looks at it as "Hey, MSU beat Duke, they must be good" and "Hey, one of Duke's losses was to MSU, so that's not a bad loss." Sort of self-reinforcing. If Sparty keeps losing, they'll keep dropping.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
If yer a Sparty and you win the Big Ten regular season then that is the only one that matters.
If yer a Sparty and you win the Big Ten tournament then that is the only one that matters.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^
IMO, the regular season is normally looked on more favorably. But now that we have imbalanced schedules that favor certain teams, the tournament can be more of a true test of the best teams in the conference.
Also, Lunardi hasn't updated his bracket since last week. Sparty's latest loss is not included.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
Imbalanced schedules cheapen the regular season? I can buy that.
But the tournament is the ultimate unbalanced schedule. A regular season title is still a truer test
January 11th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
MSU basketball= Michigan football don’t need to go any further explaining that one. As far as the regular season vs the tourney I love winning the tourney because of how quick the games go and the randomness involved but winning the big ten regular season is perceived as being the more dominant team. Winning the regular season is far more difficult and requires some luck.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:51 AM ^
Do you not watch many games? It seems like every home game, there is a shot of the rafters showing our Big Ten banners from the 2010s. The BTT banners say "Tournament" on them.
The Big Ten has an unbalanced schedule (14 teams playing 20 games) so the regular-season title race isn't completely equitable, but still, it represents an accomplishment that takes almost three months to achieve. The BTT just takes one good week. So I'd go with the regular-season title, but they're both fun.
January 11th, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^
MSU has Izzo, duh.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
Good - Win the B10 regular season
Better - Win the B10 tourney
Best - Win the NCAA tourney
Take each game and win one at a time and see where it takes you.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
Let just win tomorrow night, one game at time, everything else will fall into place.
January 11th, 2021 at 10:18 AM ^
It's more impressive to win the regular season, but I would much rather win the conference tournament. It means you're hot and in position for a tourney run. I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but I'm sure there's a strong correlation with winning the conference tourney and a deep national tourney run. Off the top of my head, MSU and Michigan both went to the final four (though Michigan went a little further) the last time each won the conference tourney
January 11th, 2021 at 10:41 AM ^
The Tournament is a great reward for a young team or a team just putting the pieces together for the regular season. Sometimes it takes most of the season to gel!