Ready to Hurt Again Part 2: Maybe 2021 Won't Completely Suck?
For much of Jim Harbaugh’s tenure, Michigan has felt like an extremely high-volatility team. The talent level and flashes suggested potential greatness if a few areas could be cleaned up, but the propensity for self-inflicted wounds hinted that potential disaster was only a few steps away. The team never seemed greater than the sum of its parts, but that sum was still pretty good.
Then came 2020 and the scales tilted to disaster. The thing is, while we as Michigan fans collectively seem to feel like we have the worst luck, this time we kind of did. Injuries and (justifiable, IMO) opt-outs turned made deep positions thin, and turned thin positions into gaping holes. The sort of personnel losses Michigan faced may not have been season killers for every team, but they would’ve done damage no matter what.
Of course, anyone who saw the team on the field knows that its problems ran far deeper than the talent/experience downgrade from unavailable players. Strategy ranged from uninspired to throw-things-at-the-TV stupid, and execution, which had been steadily slipping, plumbed new depths, to levels that would have infuriated a high school JV coach.
Changes have obviously been made, but it remains to be seen what the effects will be. While I think they will ultimately have a stabilizing effect, the uncertainty makes this 2021 Michigan team not just high volatility, but arguably the team with the widest range of realistic potential outcomes in all of FBS.
Think about it: if the new staff comes in and does nothing but clean up the junky execution that’s probably worth a win or two right there. Add in some clever game plans and players hitting their potential, and I don’t think a run at the top 10 is that farfetched. Conversely, if execution, game-planning, and player development remain at 2020 levels, a bottom two finish in the B10 East is not out of the question.
From my entirely unqualified point of view, though, I really do think there are signs of hope on all three fronts: execution, coaching, and talent.
Execution
I downplayed it a bit above, but if you’re reading this, you’re probably aware what a singularly aggravating experience it has been watching Michigan play over the past few years. Even in generally stress-free games, there were always a couple head-scratching WTF moments that called into question the attention to detail being taught and the level of accountability being maintained. There are lots of examples, but the two most maddening to me are the complete inability to operate a two-minute offense and the unending stream of offsides penalties.
(Speaking of…OH MY GOD HOW MANY TIMES WILL THE HARD COUNT WORK AGAINST THIS DEFENSE????!!!! I’d love to know if any team has allowed more 4th and short conversions on offsides penalties than Michigan. Are we the only team in college football that falls for it when the offense is clearly bluffing and not going to snap the ball? I mean seriously, COME ON. Ugh. Sorry, that has been building for a while. But I digress...)
Obviously, the players are responsible for their own actions on the field, but this seems like a case where the coaches bear the ultimate fault. I’ve never played a down of organized football, but common sense suggests that the coaches should a) be teaching and drilling their players so their execution is clean and b) holding them accountable when it isn’t. The eye test suggests that the former wasn’t happening at the levels it should have, and scuttlebutt has been that the latter wasn’t either.
So what has changed to suggest otherwise in 2021? Mike Hart.
Okay, that may be oversimplifying a bit, but let’s be honest: If you committed a dumb, drive-killing penalty or put the ball on the ground because of sloppy handling, would you want to have to answer to Mike Hart? I’ve never the man, but the intensity in his eyes tells me I sure as hell wouldn’t. Call me crazy, but I just have a hunch this new, younger staff is going to emphasize the importance of doing things right, in how they teach and how they hold players accountable.
And what of the man at the top? I have to say, being bombarded by the commercial with Coach Harbaugh saying he “doesn’t do sloppy” while watching his team give away games was a special kind of hellish torment. And honestly, it’s one of the biggest mysteries of this whole situation. That was Harbaugh’s reputation, and the fact the that product on the field was so far from it is really befuddling. I don’t know if there was something off the field that was kept quiet (which, fair play; the man’s entitled to a private personal life) or if it was the weight of expectations or what, but the Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines in 2019 and 2020 was not the lovable maniac of his tenure’s early years, and I’m sure that played a part. But whatever it was, the word from around the program has been that Coach Harbaugh seems rejuvenated, so hopefully that will filter down.
Strategy
As with the execution piece, much of my optimism for strategic improvements stems from the changes to the coaching staff.
Actually, before we go any further, let’s discuss the giant, mustachioed elephant in the room. I enjoyed most of Don Brown’s time at Michigan and have a great appreciation for some of the things his defenses accomplished (and his gruff, ‘80’s-action movie cop demeanor). But the cracks had been showing for a while, and his defense was a dumpster fire last year. Depending how Kechaun Bennett and TJ Guy work out, the much-derided New England pipeline wasn’t actually so bad, but he didn’t seem to have much of a national recruiting footprint and I don’t remember hearing much about his technique work with players. If a D coordinator isn’t a plus recruiter and isn’t coaching players up technique-wise, he’d better be winning with the Xs and Os and, uh, that didn’t happen last year. Brown’s schemes got solved, the roster didn’t match the system, and in both cases he proved unwilling or unable to adjust. It was a fun ride for a while, but his defense went the way of bad fish and houseguests, and his departure was a huge and necessary step towards fixing things.
So now we go from a known—to detrimental levels—quantity to a complete wild card in Mike Macdonald. If you thought it was risky bringing on an OC who’d never held the position solo at any level, may I offer you a DC whose highest rank was LB coach? (Fun fact: Michigan enters the 2021 season with both Offensive and Defensive Coordinators who were grad assistants in 2010.) But while Macdonald’s résumé may be sparse, it sure does make up for with the rapidity of his ascent. Despite never playing above the high school level or coaching above the quality control level in college, by 2018 he was a head position coach in the NFL, having been promoted by the Ravens three times since starting as an intern in 2014. What does this assure us of? Not a damned thing. But I’m inclined to think there are few organizations in professional sports whose stamp of approval carries more weight than the Ravens (the Spurs…maybe the Patriots if Matt Patricia didn’t ruin it?), and I don’t really see John dumping a lemon on his brother. Early reports are promising—I’m pretty sure every recruit who has recapped a meeting with Macdonald has mentioned how smart he comes across (meaning he’s smart and can communicate with 18-year-olds, an easily overlooked but very important skill)—and suggest that Michigan may have caught a rising coaching star.
That said, the consensus seems to be that while Macdonald will get Michigan’s defense rolling once his system has taken root and the roster fits its needs, 2021 may be rough. A transitional year is always going to involve some lumps, especially when the systems involved are gimmicky or complex, (which covers both the old and the new schemes). Also, the roster is unbalanced and lacking experienced depth at spots (as you may have heard, 75% of the defenders on the team are either VIPERS or long, slow CBs, we haven’t recruited any DTs since the Obama era, and every single LB transferred), and players may not have the specific skillsets Macdonald’s D required.
This is probably my boldest stance of all (sorry, I’m too old to have takes of any temperature) and where I really diverge from the prevailing wisdom, but I have this sneaking suspicion that the defense is really going to surprise and not be the glaring weakness many have forecast, and the main reason why is faith in Macdonald. Smart does not necessarily mean flexible, but I really think we’ll see a DC who is willing and able to adjust to maximize the available talent, and for all the wailing and moaning, there is talent on the Michigan defense. Post-Lewis/Reed, Baltimore has had a consistently strong defense with a range of talents. Macdonald may not have played a huge role in that but it’s what he learned, and what he’ll bring to Ann Arbor, and maybe I’m just projecting my hopes and dreams (basic competence, adaptability…ah yes, there’s that familiar pessimism) onto him, but I truly believe it will lead to a defense that pleasantly surprises.
Stay tuned for Part 3: This Has Gotten Out of Hand, I Promise this Will Be the Conclusion
Of course, anyone who saw the team on the field knows that its problems ran far deeper than the talent/experience downgrade from unavailable players. Strategy ranged from uninspired to throw-things-at-the-TV stupid, and execution, which had been steadily slipping, plumbed new depths, to levels that would have infuriated a high school JV coach.
Remember when this same thing happened with Hoke, Borges, etc? Then, JH came in and seemingly knew how run a program and get guys to execute and UM went from 5-7 to 10-3. Now we've come full circle and Gattis looks a lot like Borges and JH looks a lot like Hoke. No one has any idea what the fuck is going on or who's running this thing.
God, please let Mike Hart help us! :)
the consensus seems to be that while Macdonald will get Michigan’s defense rolling once his system has taken root and the roster fits its needs, 2021 may be rough.
Are you confident JH will survive a "rough" 2021? I don't know what "rough" means to you, but if the defense isn't any good and we have an unproven QB I can see a 5-7 win season and I don't see JH surviving that unless one of those wins is OSU.
75% of the defenders on the team are either VIPERS or long, slow CBs, we haven’t recruited any DTs since the Obama era, and every single LB transferred
Well, we've got a few bigger LBs with Ojabo & Harrell and Ross, Barrett, Mullings, Hill-Green, and Colson are all around 230 lbs. And, we've got a 5-star and a composite #105 DTs that are coming into their 3rd years from the 2019 class in Hinton & Smith and a transfer coming in Jordan Whittley. Granted Hinton has underachieved to date and Smith doesn't have much time under his belt, while Whittley is a wild card. But, it wouldn't be unheard of for two highly ranked recruits to blow up with junior years. So, it could be a good year for Hinton & Mazi, but they'd have to show something they've never showed before. (This will probably be the year we find out if they ever will too.). FWIW we also picked up Benny & Rooks in this last recruiting cycle, but they probably won't contribute much as true freshman.
This is probably my boldest stance of all (sorry, I’m too old to have takes of any temperature) and where I really diverge from the prevailing wisdom, but I have this sneaking suspicion that the defense is really going to surprise and not be the glaring weakness many have forecast, and the main reason why is faith in Macdonald.
There's lots of reasons for why 2020 was so bad like injuries, Covid, etc. and there's also lots of reasons why you can be hopeful that Gattis could be good in 2021 or McNamara could be, or Haskins/Corum/Edwards could be, or the DTs could come around, or another CB could emerge, etc. But, if I was a betting man, I'd assume less of those will happen than won't. It all could work out positive. There is a reason and a logic to see. But, lots of things would have to go right. And not just right, but different than it's ever been. The chances of that are not great.
Gattis is the biggest wild card for me. I think Macdonald raises the floor for the defense so it’s not a liability; how far the team goes depends on how potent Gattis can make the offense. I also think Weiss makes a difference here, but that’s strictly a hunch. But hey, it’s my offseason of irrational optimism, so why not?
I'm hoping that a few basic things will help. One, we'll have a normal fall camp without Covid restrictions. Two, we won't suffer the injury bug we did last year. Three, the same QB that is being prepared to start will be the starter. Four, McNamara will be more effective than Milton was. And, lastly we will have a full staff of defensive coaches, which we didn't have last year. And, the ones we have are invested in UM versus guys like Shoop.
"Macdonald raises the floor." This is probably a good take. Don Brown had the best defense in the country for most games outside of OSU. Macdonald most likely won't have the best defense in the country, but he could potentially raise the floor. OSU's receivers are so fast that they are probably breaking the laws of physics, but Macdonald has to know that his one job is to stop OSU.
Our offense has been so bad the past few years that Brown's defense kept us in games. Is a 10 point loss to OSU worth a 6-6 season?
I thought we were going to be really good last year. I'm pretending 2020 didn't happen.
I thought we were going to be really good last year. I'm pretending 2020 didn't happen.
I did too, but a lot of that hinged on Milton being serviceable and the team being healthy and full stocked. Who would have predicted at one time we'd be down Nico, Ambry, Mayfield, Hayes, Paye, Hutch, and McGrone...basically all our best players. I still think this team could have been good with a full fall camp, full coaching staff, and healthy. From a talent standpoint I liked them better than the 2019 team.
But, going into 2021 so much depends on the QB, DT, and #2 CB progression in addition to the new staff changes. There is a lot more unknowns that we are aware of going in vs stuff we didn't expect last year. I'm not sure which is worse, but at least staff changes and a new QB provide hope.
I think the staff changes will help. I think Hart will help. From what I've seen he's a legit good coach who might be a great one, and as I stated before in another post I wonder if they lured him here as the possible replacement after (hopefully) a couple bounce back years for Harbaugh. I worry about all the things you say, especially QB. I'll add that I'm worried about the OL. We have good guys in there at G and T, but Center is an unknown for me. And the change in OL coaches always makes me nervous. I think we *MUST* Have a solid OL if we are going to have McNamara have a chance to develop. That's baseline. And a change in OL Coaches can be very disruptive.
My next biggest concern is Gattis playcalling. He's had one or two games where he seems dynamic, and one or two where it seems like he's playing with 1/4 of a playbook or trying to be too cute.
Finally I know people hate the 'the expectation is for the position' concept as old Carr-ness but we have to have solid execution.
This is a critical year for Gattis.
He has enough talent at RB and WR. QB needs to play above average. Line play should be towards the very top of the Big Ten and should provide for a strong running game and good protection.
Predictability = Death.
100% agree that Gattis is "THE" most critical aspect of this team's ability to be successful. There have been way too many "Borges playcalling" in his first 2 years. Surprise EVERYONE Gattis and realize that this team will NOT overpower anyone on short yardage downs.
He needs to develop a system that is NOT so predictable !!! We don't have Mike Hart running behind Jake Long ...
Go Blue!
I think knowing who will be on the team, being able to compete in fall camp and playing in a Big House that's not hauntingly empty are going to help a lot. Yes, we can say there may be a lot of holes on the roster, but I believe this team is going to have a lot more talent than say last year's Northwestern team that beat Auburn in a bowl game and was competitive with Ohio State until the second half last year.
I'm optimistic about this year's team as well. Last year it didn't even look like we were watching a team that had practiced together, and that is mostly because they really hadn't. That probably had an effect on trying to implement a zone defense during the offseason when we knew we wouldn't have lockdown corners. In my opinion, this team is going to run out onto the field, slap the banner, and look a lot more motivated on September 4 than anything you saw last year.
Yes, but, no team practiced much together. All in the same boat on that one. Although, one can argue that lack of practice time had a more drastic impact on Michigan mainly because they were one of the youngest teams in the country.
The only thing worse than a Michigan fan looking at *THIS SEASON'S* team and thinking we could be a top 10 team is you comparing JH to Hoke. I know a lot of you don't like Harbaugh but if you legit think those two guys are in the same league...I don't even know what to say to you.
Well, you have convinced me! Shoot this optimism right into my veins! I am also too old, and have done this too many times to be overly pessimistic.
Hiring a young LB coach as your DC is so crazy it just might work. My biggest concern is Harbaugh has always been on an upward trajectory everywhere he has been and then he leaves. We have not seen him have to pull up from a nose dive before. Everything he has done before has worked, can he turn it around and adjust when his way does not work. I hope these staff changes (which were needed) are well thought out and calculated and not shots in the dark to see if something hits.
Either way I will enjoy the season for what it is, a transition. Not a championship season but hopefully a promising one. I have not thrown stuff at the TV since the 2017 season, not going back to that.
i haven't thrown anything since Al Nakba (2015)
Who is Al Nakba and why were you throwing him? ?
Remember the outrage on the board when Don Brown didn't win the Broyle's Award in 2016 or 2017? That decline in results is pretty amazing.
I remember many, many people grousing about Harbaugh and Pep saying they wanted a 'Don Brown of the offense'. People are fickle. Brown did do well for a long time, but it sounds like at the last he just ossified and refused to change, especially his calls.
Not me, I was at the game against Wisconsin in 2017 and how many times can a 3rd and 17 be a first down on a "shot put" from the Whiskey QB? Dork Brown lost me that day.....
Yep. I also remember how excited we were in 2015 after the four-game shutout streak. There was even a catchy name for it on the blog: Durkin's Donuts. And then we were pounded mercilessly by OSU at the end of the season...
At least Brown's decline didn't take place until a couple of years into his tenure.
I think Brown had an 80% defense, and of a type that is unique to college football where talent differentials and holes can be wider between teams.
For 80% of the teams his defenses were hyper aggressive and great at disrupting the offenses.
But against peer or greater talent teams, his own talent gaps and holes got exploited big time because he left people on an island.
I don't think you see the swing between success and failure like that in the pros because the talent is much more evenly distributed.
A lot of Don Brown's schemes were based on press man coverages. This is fine when you have top flight guys like Lewis, Long, even Stribling and Thomas. Dr. Blitz could put more guys in the box blitz linebackers and safeties or show blitz and fall back.
But fans saw red when Gray and Green (sorry I couldn't resist) but those guys weren't good enough. So Brown had to play mostly zone and more traditional sets. That strips any advantage Brown's D has. So you UM were easy to prepare for.
Brown was also really weak in 2 areas, I hope we can make significant improvement, turn overs and plays over 20 yards. The latter was a terrible stat for Brown. Football Outsider suggest if you give up more 20plus yard plays than you make you will lose 70% of the time.
MSU essentially beat us with one play. Throw it long to White for a completion or a penalty.
The Ravens were a good turnover team and gave up the fewest passing plays over 20 yards. Let's hope they continue those trends here.
The Ravens D is similar to Brown's in that it's complicated and they play a lot of man. Clearly we don't have the talent for that. So expect to see more traditional sets or blitzes with linebackers and safeties.
A lot of how the D does may depend on Mazi Smith. If he can consistently stuff the middle then MacDonald can do some creative things with Hutch, Barrett and Hill. If we get pressure then we can mitigate some of the secondary's shortcomings.
I don't know why everyone's so quick to accept the "injuries" story from last year at face value. My memory is that several of the most significant injuries, at least, came after it became clear the season was a disaster -- not just in the growing number of losses, but in the obvious lack of optimism and enthusiasm across the entire program.
I don't know about you, but if I'm playing a position where taking a beating on every play is involved, I know there's no chance we're going to beat a good team, the coaches are not helping us win, and I have even an outside chance of making the pros, I'd strongly consider shutting it down. But players can't just say "I quit" -- they need to come up with an excuse.
(The point about the coaches not helping is key, by the way -- if the coaches don't seem to be doing their jobs by putting players in positions to win, I fully support those players who start to worry about their health and long-term prospects).
I don't know for sure, of course -- nobody does, except the players themselves -- but man, I have to take the suggestion that we were just "unlucky" to have the team suffer so many major injuries, particularly after the season became a tire fire, with a big grain of salt.
I agree with some of your argument. While Michigan had many unfortunate injuries and opt outs, many of the absent players will not be back to help in 2021.
- Ambry Thomas - not returning, no obvious replacement
- Nico Collins - not returning, no obvious replacement
- Kwity Paye - not returning, Braiden McGregror might be a replacement
- Aidan Hutchinson - returning
- Cameron McGrone - not returning, no obvious replacement
- Jalen Mayfield - not returning, no obvious replacement, although several different players could step up
- Ryan Hayes - returning
The missing players help explain why Michigan struggled in 2020. But most of them do not return and do not have obvious successors. That keeps me from getting too excited about 2021.
Starting the season w/o your best CB and WR both NFL level talent and both at positions without much experience/depth along with covid shortened camp..and inexperience at QB...the season was a crap shoot from the start..that just went to crap.
On the one hand, we've seen a D coordinator come in (he who shall not be named at that school down south) and turn players Rich Rod recruited into a top defense. On the other, we've seen in the Harbaugh era alone inexplicable failures in areas we were 100%...oh hell! Let me put it this way, "QB whisperer."
Expectations are the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I guess I'll disagree with that. Ruddock and Speight performed way beyond my expectations under Harbaugh in the Harbaugh/Fisch offense. But after that... Harbaugh's attitude has changed, and at the risk of sounding like an old man I wonder if the younger kids in an era of transfer portals and high expectations just don't want to deal with A) constant work and attention to detail and B) setbacks.
Duplicate post. I'll neg myself....
"the Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines in 2019 and 2020 was not the lovable maniac of his tenure’s early years, and I’m sure that played a part. But whatever it was, the word from around the program has been that Coach Harbaugh seems rejuvenated, so hopefully that will filter down."
I'm a Harbaugh partisan. But if it ends up not correcting and getting better this will be the single biggest question mark of his era. We went from 'non modern' offenses that were reportedly almost impossible to scheme for, and a coach who valued competition above all things, to a coach who seems.... subdued, and where kids don't have the execution they did his first couple years. Remember class in the grass? Constant attention to detail? Jim getting under Speight's hands to adjust the center/QB transfer? Then... the Seniors asked him to dial that back and he did (one of the many changes that he made; this one I really question) and things seemed to slip. He got a BS foul in a game for going nuts.... and stopped going nuts. Why? What changed? It seems like 17-18 was a huge sea change from the rest of his career .
As far as what changed in his sideline demeanor, I know people have been asking that for a while and while I do not claim to have any inside knowledge, I've got a couple of hunches.
1) Remember when he went apeshit crazy on the sidelines in the 2016 OSU game? Well, remember that gave his team a costly 15 yard penalty, and if memory serves it set OSU right up inside the five yard line and Weber went over the top for an OSU TD on the next play. Boom. OSU is right back in the game after being more or less shut down the entire afternoon up to that point, with their only prior points being on a pick six. Harbaugh was justified in going nuts, but it still cost his team and his players, guys who he knew had worked their asses off for him all year to get to that point, in one of the most crucial moments of the entire season, in a game that if won could change the entire trajectory of the program for a decade or more. He may very well have felt as though he let his team down in that moment, and had he kept his cool, maybe that penalty doesn't happen, they hold OSU to a field goal, and the outcome of the game is different.
2) This is another one where I have no inside knowledge and its just a hunch, but I think that 2016 game really took something out of him. He went into that game with the better team, could've won and arguably should've won, but a lot of questionable calls in crucial moments all went OSU's way that either kept drives alive for OSU, or forced punts for Michigan when there should've been a fresh set of downs and moving the chains. I wouldn't be surprised if he just feels, in his heart of hearts, that he and his team were robbed. And then facing beatdowns like you've been facing against your most hated rival year after year, for a guy who played in this game and played under Bo, you can't tell me that doesn't eat away at him, that it doesn't make him worry about his legacy or how he will be remembered. So its deflating for sure.
regarding Hart, I can recall a few times I rode the elevator in angell hall with Hart; whenever my eyes met his extremely intense eyes looking back I felt like he knew somehow I wronged him, like kill his cat, and he was thinking about how to kill me in the most painful ways. i would always avert my eyes down to my toes. one time as I was about to hop on the elevator from inside he looked at me and I froze and I decided to wait for the next one.
this was with many of the Oline guys usually towering around him like bodyguards in the elevator. Hart was the scariest guy in the box.
I love these posts. This is some high quality writing and analysis of the current situation. Some of my favorite lines
It was a fun ride for a while, but his defense went the way of bad fish and houseguests
(as you may have heard, 75% of the defenders on the team are either VIPERS or long, slow CBs, we haven’t recruited any DTs since the Obama era, and every single LB transferred)
Just another reason that I miss the Obama era...
Please keep these coming and/or come up with another series of diary posts after Part 3.
I guess we'll find out if Harbaugh still has it. My guess is we may start out slow but improve through the season and end up winning 7 or 8 games. Part of me think this could be a big surprise season with 10 wins possible. But I also have a sinking feeling if things start out slow, the team may struggle and only go .500. I guess a sub .500 season could mean the end of the Harbaugh era?
Interesting stuff. I do share some of your optimism. I don't know much about MacDonald's system and agree that it could be a rough transition given a roster not necessarily built for what he wants to do, but I think his pro experience could be helpful. It's a given in the NFL is that there's a (relative) range of talent on every team based on the draft, free agency and the salary cap. I suspect that no NFL has the kind of talent differential over its average opponent than the best college teams have (and that Michigan has had over most teams not named Ohio State for most of Harbaugh's tenure). If we're successful this year I think it will be about adopting an approach that is geared getting the most out of what we have, which I suspect NFL teams have to do all the time.
Good write up...
And I love the Mike Hart hire and comment...BUT
I my mind the most important part of all is getting JH back to what got him to be such a coveted coach. Nothing matters more....
His teams were known for exacting execution, smart play, fighting to the end, toughness, imposing a will and never backing down. They didn't regularly shoot themselves in the foot...
Remember when he came to UM and the team went into the submarine...that first game against Utah on the road was a loss but you could see the execution and blue print for success.
Harbaugh is fighting for his coaching reputation and I'm pulling for him to get back to being the fierce and feared competitor that drives his team to exceed expectations.
A resurrection of JH will also mean a resurrection of the FB program and the fanbase.
Its now or never basically...I sure as hell HOPE its now.
I think, as many have said in the past, that turing from 4-8 to 8-4 takes as much effort as it does to get those next 1-2 wins that allow you to compete for a title (or at least be in the convo). And getting the last 1-2 to go 11-1, 12-0 is even tougher.
So from that perspective, I am fairly optimistic that 6-6 and 7-5 is very achievable. But getting more than one win over Wisc, OSU, PSU, AND taking 2/3 from Wash, IU, MSU to get to 8-4 or 9-3 is stretching things a bit too far for a team with this many new starters, holes on D and a new QB.
At this point, the 2022 schedule looks very good for M to make a run.
It's always next year with the football team. When JH was hired I really thought by this point that we'd be up in the rarefied air enjoyed by teams such as Ohio St, Alabama and Clemson. Or at least close enough to that air to smell it. I thought we'd be a team that would reload year after year. Feels like we are still very far away and I am not sure anymore that JH is the guy to take us there.
What else do you need to see to be fully sure Jim isn’t the guy? the mental gymnastics some play to avoid saying Jim has failed and been overwhelming disappointment is comical. It’s ok to let reality set it. Quite liberating actually
Why is 2022 the year? At Iowa, at MSU, at OSU.
OSU is a guaran-freaking-teed loss. I'll put money down on that right now. One of them (Iowa) is probably a toss-up, or if its a night game it probably goes Iowa's way, and then while MSU isn't lighting the world on fire, I'm back in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode with this team after the freaking travesty I saw from them in this game last year. Michigan got punk'd, absolutely punk'd, by a very bad MSU team, and until I see a result on the field that indicates I should think otherwise, I will approach all of those games thinking MSU has a great chance to win.
It's always "wait until next year" with this team. At some point, it has to be THIS YEAR, otherwise you might as well take everything back to the drawing board and start over because you're not getting any further otherwise.
It's funny. Macdonald and the defense are what I'm least unsure of. I expect some wildness out of the gate but steady improvement as they start to intuit their responsibilities.
It's Gattis, Harbaugh, and the quarterback to be named later that worry me. I'd like to believe we'll finally see an aggressive, attacking passing game, but I fear we'll have yet another year of runs up the middle on early downs and two-minute drills that take five.
This is exactly my fear. Harbaugh has shown a reluctance to implement a big play passing offense. When we had Nico Collins, Tarik Black and DPJ we were not a dynamic offense. I just don't have confidence that "speed in space" will suddenly be what we thought we were getting when Gattis came in.
I understand your concern. How hard is it to have a passing attack? It is a basic tenet of football that you have to throw the ball down field everyone once in a while to discourage the defense from packing the box. So throw deep once in the first quarter. If it works, do it again. If it should have worked, do it again. If it could work with an adjustment, then make the adjustment and do it again.
And yet, plays that seem to work (or almost work, DPI) are abandoned. Maybe Speight was injured and maybe Patterson was injured but there has been a dearth of downfield attack in the Harbaugh era.
Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.-Red
I'll believe this team can achieve more when I physically see them achieve more.
When they stop being slow and predictable on offense.
When they win a game they're not supposed to win.
When they go on the road and beat a great team in a tough environment.
When they look like they know what they're doing against OSU. When they look prepared, when they have a plan in that game that makes sense and can execute it. I want to say when they win, but they are so far away from being able to accomplish that right now that I think they need to focus more on baby steps at this point.
Dear Crazy (you said to call you that),
Catching up on old posts and digging into my bag of what-the-hells, I've decided you're a seer.
So Go—Mike Hart and new blood and—Blue!
I'm thinking this will be a 2015-esque year where the team struggles at times but generally performs better than preseason expectations. Schedule is brutal though - if they can win 1 out of PSU/Wisconsin/OSU without any bad losses and being competitive I'll take it. 9-3, with one big win of the 3 above, loss to Washington and one typical "Michigan doesn't show up for a very winnable road game" loss. Brand name is still strong enough to get an SEC bowl opponent way ahead of us in S&P+, who trounces us unless half their team opts out for the draft.
You just wrote the script for a UM football team ceiling for a season post 2000. That isnt just a mild take it is literally our best season in the last 20 years.
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