CC: A Statistical Look at Jim Harbaugh's Stanford Years
Well I tried to make this short enough for a forum entry but people prefer brevity there which I fail at in these type of analysis, so I decided to write a long form and will place in diary.
With the erasure of David Brandon from UM athletics and the scuttlebutt about a potential re-marriage with Jim Harbaugh (the guy who wears a crown says Harbaugh's reps will be in AA next week to meet with Schlissel, but MGo policy is not to link to the crowned one's site) I thought I'd present some data on Harbaugh's Stanford years. I've done a litany of reviews of most of the major coaching candidates (Mullen, Patterson, Graham, Jones, Mark Stoops) over the past month in a somewhat similar format but I am going to make this post more narrow, focusing mostly on statistics. (I also looked at how Strong & Franklin compared to this year's candidates)
I did break out Jim's data a lot more in detail - rather than simply looking at total offense/defense each year at Stanford, I went into rush & pass offense/defense and then went another step and looked at the advanced metrics of FEI and S&P+ utilizing Football Outsiders. Harbaugh coached from 07 to 10, so I've also listed the data for Stanford in the year before and year after he coached for comparison (please note there was no FEI data in 2006)
Here is Harbaugh's data - please note Andrew Luck was QB in 09/10/11:
W/L | Tot Off | oFEI | oS&P+ | Tot Def | dFEI | dS&P+ | ||
2006 | 1-11 | 118 | - | 113 | 97 | - | 99 | |
2007 | 4-8 | 107 | 61 | 83 | 98 | 49 | 85 | |
2008 | 5-7 | 67 | 48 | 31 | 75 | 80 | 87 | |
2009 | 8-5 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 90 | 91 | 113 | |
2010 | 12-1 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 6 | 6 | |
2011 | 11-2 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 13 | 22 |
Here is a deep dig into the data broken down by run / pass
Rush O | Pass O | Rush D | Pass D | |
2006 | 115 | 95 | 117 | 60 |
2007 | 102 | 70 | 77 | 84 |
2008 | 19 | 103 | 77 | 83 |
2009 | 11 | 70 | 55 | 98 |
2010 | 17 | 29 | 19 | 16 |
2011 | 18 | 22 | 3 | 73 |
TL;DR version - cool story bro, I dont care, statistics are for losers...give me Harbaugh. Stop reading here.
Not TL;DR version
DEFENSE
The perception of Stanford football today is tough a$$ defense. But that was not Harbaugh's defense, or it sure wasn't until his last year there. What struck me on looking at the data is how sucky the defense was in Harbaugh's first 3 years. I mean it was really bad, and yes let's allow for 1-11 Stanford but there should have been more tangible improvement by year 2-3. Jim doesn't seem to be a defensive coach. And yet we saw a massive improvement in his last year. So I looked closer and we can get an explanation from 2 words -> Vic Fangio.
Here are his D-coordinators by year
- 2007 - Scott Schafer (YTSS)
- 2008 - Andy Buh/Ron Lynn
- 2009 - ditto
- 2010 - Vic Fangio
So who is Vic Fangio and where is he now? Fangio is a long time NFL coach, who unfortunately was stuck coaching for 2 expansion teams, but had been a D Coordinator from 95 to 05. Colts management wanted him fired one year but Jim Mora (YTJM) famously refused to fire him since he didnt think he was a problem, and instead Mora got canned. Between 06-10, Fangio was a "special assistant" to first Billick and then John Harbaugh at the Ravens. (Ironically on the same staff as Gregg Mattison from 08-10... small world)
So obviously he got shuttled from 1 Harbaugh to another and his 1 year in college was his only year. He has been the DC of San Fran's excellent defense since 2011. At age 57 - and never being a HC - he does not seem like one to take over for Jim if he was to leave San Fran (hoping UM fans in San Fran could shed more light on this, I am speculating) but he seems like a NFL guy more than a college guy. I also could not find his salary with the google fergodsakes, but he did get an extension thru 2015 this past March.
If we are lucky enough to land Harbaugh, it will be interesting to see if Mr. Fangio comes along. (Nice article here on Fangio for those inclined; paints him as a cerebral, detail oriented coaching lifer)
If not, I would say it is imperitive Harbaugh finds an excellent D-coordinator (maybe Will Muschamp?) Just being blunt but his first 3 years (again allowing that Stanford sucked in 2006) on defense were pretty awful, like Kevin Sumlin's defense at Houston awful. Well like Kevin Sumlin everywhere he coaches awful on defense.
OFFENSE
Unlike the defense, Jim's offense improved at a steady pace through his years at Stanford. Now again, and this is why I like diving into the data - the perception was this was mostly Andrew Luck. But as we slice the data we can see it was the rushing offense that carried the day. By the 2nd year Harbaugh had engineered a Mattison in 2011 turnaround of the rush offense from >100 to top 20. Now that is f***** manball sir. Somewhere Bo is shedding a tear. Luck did come around in 2009-2010 (and 2011 after Harbaugh left) and while the passing offense was very good in 2010, the rushing offense was the better unit even that year. So in terms of fit of style to current player personnel - I mean the shoe fits. Assuming Rivals was not wrong on every damn UM offensive recruit from 2012-2014. Harbaugh did what Hoke promised to do. And did it quickly. Interestingly the advanced stats (S&P+ and FEI) were kinder to Stanford then the NCAA's "Total Offense" all 4 years, which is probably a nod to the tough conference.
OVERALL
Looking at this data better helped me not only look deeper at Jim Harbaugh but better helped me couch all the other candidates I ran analysis on over the past month. It makes me appreciate the defensive prowess of Charlie Strong at Louisville and Patterson at TCU, and Graham / Sumlin offensively (and Graham defensively at ASU). Coming in and quickly turning around programs and getting "top 20" rankings at these schools without top 10-15 recruiting talent is NOT easy. Many people are critical of many other candidates I (or others) present for not winning big by year 2 at other programs (what?! 5 losses in any year? DO NOT WANT!) or having one side of the ball with sucky stats. Well Harbaugh evaluated after 2-3 years would have some of those same flags as well. Again - adjusted for taking over a 1-11 tire fire.
Which is why judging a guy like Mark Stoops in year 2 is so difficult - in many ways he is well ahead of where Jim was in year 2 both in W/L and offensive and defensive statistics - taking over a similar 2-10 tire fire. Of course we'd prefer to see year 3 for him as well!
Looking at this data, if I removed the name Harbaugh and changed it to Smith and he had played at Nebraska rather than Michigan, "Coach Smith" would not be such a slam dunk based on comments I've seen in many of the CC threads for guys with - frankly - some better data in year 1-3 of their respective stops.
All that said, of course I am not suggessting Jim Harbaugh should not be UM's coach - I would be sent to Bolivia for even the suggestion. The history, the Michigan roots, the hate for Ohio, the intensity, the intangibles - very few coaches in the country have those. And he has proven himself even more so at the NFL level than the NCAA. But he is an offensive minded person who built a manball team and found and tutored a great QB. Things I am sure he could do here. But his defensive coordinator hire may be his biggest decision if he does make his way to Ann Arbor.
November 1st, 2014 at 7:35 AM ^
Here is Muschamp's data for his past 3 stops as both a DC (Auburn/Texas) and HC at UF - excellent defensive stats. With his blowup at UF he should be content to be a D-coordinator for at least 2 years I'd guess before someone in the Power 5 conferences at a lower level (i.e. a North Carolina type) gives him another chance.
Total D | Rush D | Pass D | ||
2006 | Auburn | 19 | 45 | 33 |
2007 | Auburn | 6 | 29 | 7 |
2008 | Texas | 51 | 3 | 59 |
2009 | Texas | 3 | 1 | 10 |
2010 | Texas | 6 | 44 | 36 |
2011 | FL | 8 | 40 | 28 |
2012 | FL | 5 | 4 | 2 |
2013 | FL | 8 | 33 | 7 |
November 1st, 2014 at 5:57 PM ^
So lets say Muschamp gets fired. We could pick up an offensive mastermind, if we can convince Muschamp to become a DC again. I think that would be great for short term, but after a couple good seasons, Muschamp would probably look for another HC job. However, the foundation would be set.
November 1st, 2014 at 11:28 PM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 7:17 AM ^
Good write up
November 1st, 2014 at 7:52 AM ^
Excellent analysis. Thanks for putting it together.
November 2nd, 2014 at 7:23 AM ^
I agree- the data simply doesn't support the crazy enthusiam for Jimmy H. over other candidates. It doesn't.
What does support the ridiculous preference for Harbaugh over other candidates?
HE'S A MICHIGAN MAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This, plain and simple.
For all the folks here who keep saying "let's forget all the Michigan Man stuff" and "Hire the best person period" it turns out that many (not all) fans here are, in fact, every bit as committed to the "Michigan Man" theme as David Brandon was.
Give me a break
Hopefully, the new AD and his successor will be a lot more level headed and choose the BEST candidate, not the fan favorite
Alum 96- you are a great asset to this board- maybe we should put you on the search committee
November 2nd, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 8:05 AM ^
Let's not make the same mistake twice. Whoever JH wants to bring as DC is fine with us - money is no object.
November 1st, 2014 at 10:41 PM ^
money wasn't the reason RR couldn't get Casteel to join him in Ann Arbor. he stayed for his family. i believe his daughter was going to be graduating high school within the next couple of years, and he didn't want to pack up and move so close to that.
November 2nd, 2014 at 10:58 PM ^
if Casteel had joined RR, they'd probably both be in A2 still.
That said, there were so many signs of trouble with a few NFL loose ends, like Pacman, coming out of his program at WV.
Apart from being an annoying thorn in the side of Pete Carroll, is there anything along those lines we saw from Jimmy?
November 1st, 2014 at 8:41 AM ^
...this data seems to argue for giving a coach a fourth year to see how he performs, don't you think? :-) :-)
November 1st, 2014 at 9:20 AM ^
Actually looking at JH's record the first 3 years it is I believe only 1 game better than RR's. Of course Jimbo took over a 1-11 team whereas RR took over a winning team.
RR ended his 3rd year with major blowout losses to our top rival and in a bowl than decided to sing some Josh Groban....whereas Stanford lost by 4 to Oklahoma in the same year they upset top 10 Oregon and USC. Just looking over the record that year every loss for Stanford but 1 was by a TD or less, and the other 1 was by 10 pts.
Meanwhile RR's BEST losses were by 10 pts in year 3. The others were by 17, 20, 30, and 38.
Trends matter. But generally yes I think a coach should get 4 years.
November 1st, 2014 at 9:21 AM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^
Yes, agreed and the data also suggest you should see improvement year over year. Hoke has his 4th year and has failed miserably!
If this is in reference to RR, I think it is clear that he should have gotten a 4th year.
November 1st, 2014 at 9:12 AM ^
Jim clearly KNOWS he isn't a strong defensive coach (which makes a lot of sense considering he's a former QB) and he also seems to know when his defense isn't performing up to snuff and goes out makes changes, working until he finds a DC that gets s*** done. That's worth something. Very very few coaches can manage both sides of the ball by themselves.
November 1st, 2014 at 9:25 AM ^
True but we dont want him churning through DCs yearly as we have 70th ranked defenses anually while he tries to find a DC that works. Of his past 8 years, he has had 5 good defense years - all with the same DC. If that DC doesnt come to AA (if Jim was hired) we are back in the same boat with an unknown DC quantity unless he goes out and gets a Muschamp. It is critical if he returns to the college game he finds a top end DC.
November 1st, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^
post-Fangio. It's very hard to know how much credit a DC deserves compared to the rest of the staff. I appreciate your work, but I wouldn't give too much weight to statistics early in a rebuilding project. The important point is what you are able to build, not what each step along the way looks like.
November 1st, 2014 at 5:14 PM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 5:28 PM ^
Hi. Just want to note in all my other CC posts I looked at major wins and losses every year of that team/coach. I didnt do it for Jim because most know his story and I didnt want to add another 1000 words to this post - I wanted to just focus on how his offenses and defenses stacked up with stats and where the strengths and weaknesses are.
In fact, in almost EVERY CC thread for the past month I have cited Harbaugh's wins in year 3 as examples of what you should see in a coach. Even if the Win Loss is not great (8-5) you should see signs of a breakthrough vs superior talent. I almost always note the Oregon and USC games in year 3 for Harbaugh. And in this post I noted in the comments sections how his losses in year 3 were all close. So yes I look at that - I just didnt break it down in this post since that wasn't the topic. It's actually why I am not high on Dan Mullen. If Mullen was so great he could have 8-5 records in the SEC West in year 3-4 and beat a LSU or Auburn at some point in year 3-4. Instead he just beat up on bad teams for 5 years. He is also supposed to be a QB guru but he never had a QB for 5 years - why could he not develop one with all the talent in the south? Even if the record was average for Miss State he should have had a Texas Tech type team that can score 40 pts and lose 50-40 if he was an offensive guru. So yes I look at that stuff.
November 1st, 2014 at 5:56 PM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^
Yes I dont know much about Fangio or where his heart it. He has been an NFL guy his entire life but 1 year. Its a different job - going on the road for a lot of the year, and recruiting kids. I asked about him on another thread and peopple seemed to indicate San Fran mght elevate him to HC. But who knows. If he had been a college coach for 8 years and NFL for 12 it would be a little different; its just such a different set of work in college with the recruiting. He could also be thankful to the Harbaughs who have employed him since 2008 and come with Jim. No way to know now - it would be a boon for him to join Jim (if Jim comes).
November 1st, 2014 at 6:32 PM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 10:10 AM ^
There are two other components with that defense worth considering.
Stanford recruits better generally on offense. Offensive focused players are often better students because offense can be less about pure raw athleticism than defense. The assignments on defense can be complex as well, but it's more about turning athletes loose and letting them make plays.
The defense would necessarily take more time to develop because it would take a few years to get undervalued recruits on campus and coach them up/get them stronger. See Michigan State's defense first 3 years under Dantonio. It wasn't really all that good.
A guy like Sherman was an exception to the level of recruits Stanford was getting defensively.
The other component is the bias towards offense of the conference Stanford is in.
I haven't checked but I doubt even Jim's best defense had the recruiting cache he'd inherit at Michigan.
November 1st, 2014 at 10:14 AM ^
Stanford? For example, from what you've said/what the numbers show, passing didn't improve until he got"his" quarterback." And until "his" quarterback was in his 2nd year.
I'm especially curious wrt the defensive roster. Changing DC's every year? Is that because they weren't getting it done, or were they dealing with youth like UM has ben on offense, and maybe some of DC churn might be better attributed to impatience?
November 1st, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^
Luck was his big get. Turned things big time for what Jim was trying to do. Everyone wanted him.
He was the best college quarterback I've ever seen. It didn't hurt getting him.
What I like about the fit with Michigan is you have those same sell points with the elite education a kid can receive.
I like what Harbaugh was able to do with both Smith and the current quarterback with the 49ers. It seemed like a great job maximizing the skill set of each guy.
You see that on display with Cook at Michigan State. He's a product of great player development as much as I hate to admit it.
November 1st, 2014 at 8:17 PM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^
Dude signed a big contract extension that was probably orchestrated by his agent the moment the Brandon news broke.
Now, that doesn't preclude us from landing him, but the price tag just went up beyond his value, in my opinion.
November 1st, 2014 at 4:49 PM ^
Wow thanks for that info. That sucks, good for UK though.
The new deal, which includes a prorated raise for the remainder of this season, adds another year and will pay him a total of $21.45 million through the 2019 season. His guaranteed compensation escalates each season, up to $3.25 million next year and $4.25 million by the final year.
November 1st, 2014 at 9:58 PM ^
Stoops did just sign a big extension, but all the talk on-line was over the fact that the contract did not have a buyout. So if Michigan wanted to make a run at Stoops they could without having to worry about forking over a large amount of cash for a buyout.
Don't know if they will pursue him or not, but I don't think the new contract actually makes his situation that different from Michigans perspective.
November 1st, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
R2-Harbaugh. What Harbaugh did-done with Stn-SnF really IS Profound. Esp-- since Harbaugh comes from The Dull-Boring BoLineage System.
Harbaugh is the product of DECADES of Mch-OC Lineage Stuff too, etc etc.
The R2-Apologists, who GLOB onto Harbaugh at this point, are not allowed to do this. They must Go With R2 All The Way to The END of this, whether Harbaugh comes or not.
The Harbaugh-O is really a re-worked Schembechlerism-- which is EXACTLY what The R2 Movement is STILL trying to get away from
November 1st, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^
Da fuq?
November 1st, 2014 at 3:29 PM ^
I couldn't have said it better myself.
November 1st, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
Thanks for the comments. I think some of the intangibles Harbaugh bring obviously no other candidate bring. He is also a tireless worker and obsessive which is Sabanlike. He also does very well with QBs and if he has a bad assistant on his staff wont hide them away for seniority reasons. He also is not going to take the Meyer Dantonio crapola. I mean there are some intangibles only Harbaugh can bring. I am more than happy with a Harbaugh hire but its not going to be a 1 year turnaround if he comes.
I think guys like Graham, Snyder, and Patterson are top 15 coaches in the NCAA along with Kelly, Dantono and Meyer. We need a top 15 coach to compete bottom line. Snyder is obviously not leaving KSU and Patterson has zero reason to leave TCU (he has been there since 98 and has a top 10 team in a conference that is not loaded like the SEC, in a hotbed of talent). So that leaves Graham which is why I bring him up. I think he should be candidate #2 after Harbaugh and ahead of Mullen but that's me looking ONLY at football. For other UM fans they look at other intangibles and dont like the way he left previous jobs.
What i see is a guy who matches Kevin Sumlin on offense and plays good defense (defensive FEI stats in 20s/30s in his 3 years at ASU). Everone loved them some Sumlin around here but guy doesnt care about defense. Graham lost 9 defensive starters and is playing 3 true freshman in the Pac 12 - yet their defense is better than ours already. His QB is a 2 star he developed whose only offer was Nevada. Their 2 deep has 7 seniors on it. And they are 7-1 in a much better conference. I also love that he identified Malzahn and Chad Morris - those were his OCs at Tulsa. And he is a no nonsense coach who never say "I'm fucking sorry" to Dantonio.
He is no home run - no one is - he doesnt have Midwest roots or relationships etc and maybe he would be another RichRod but his track record is a lot better than Mullen IMO. Who also has a lack of Midwest roots other than being born here. "Midwest roots" to me means having great relationships with HS coaches so Mullen has the same issue Graham would have here. Mullen had no signature win in 5 years prior to this year and has the benefit of lots of JUCOs down at Miss State which he would not here. Pac 12 recruiting is a lot more like Big 10 hence why I think Graham could repeat what he is doing for ASU here.
If I were Florida I'd have Graham as my head coach on Dec 1.
November 1st, 2014 at 1:02 PM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 1:06 AM ^
was a disaster when JH took over. I was astounded that JH turned him into the QB everybody thought he should be out of college.
November 1st, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
Excellent point - and it makes what he did at Stanford that much more remarkable. He landed great players very quickly despite having a thin coaching résumé.
Now he's a guy who's played in the NFL, coached in college, and coached in the NFL. He's JMFH.
November 1st, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^
We could have hired him in 07 but good ole Lloyd said no. That combined with Jim's comments about UM academics vs Stanford's made the relationship quite rocky...
Which is why I don't think he'll come back... The dude is so awkward when it comes to mentioning his alma mater... Clearly he still has some type of grudge against the Michigan Brass (whether this can be healed who knows)
It seems like John cares more about UM than Jim does at this point given the rumors from the past couple of years about John.
November 1st, 2014 at 3:11 PM ^
Maybe Lloyd saying No to hiring Jim was the best possible thing ever to happen to Jim and was what led him to success?
November 1st, 2014 at 3:32 PM ^
Sure, in hindsight it's obvious JH would have been a great hire back then, but his entire head coaching experience conisted of a few years at University of San Diego.
Don't confuse that with San Diego State. USD is an FCS school that plays in a conferece with Evansville and Campbell. No athletic scholarships.
That said, JH did a great job preparing himself to be a coach. Even when he played with the Colts, he was an unpaid assistant for his dad at Western Kentucky, and his first assistant job was turning Rich Gannon into a pro-bowler and Super Bowl QB.
I don't know where people get the idea JH doesn't like Michigan. He was probably disappointed that he didn't get the job before, and he's famously irascible, but he is obviously, deeply blue.
November 1st, 2014 at 5:36 PM ^
In 2007 he had basically coached 3 years at Colorado School of Mines equivalent. Good for Stanford but that was a 1-11 team who could take a chance. Harbaugh was not ver proven at all in 07. Brian Kelly at that time at GVSU and CMU had a better resume.
November 1st, 2014 at 8:11 PM ^
Harbaugh will engineer a grudge against anyone when it suits the program he is in charge of. It's part of the guy's personality and will be a positive if he comes here. I seriously doubt he has a sustained problem with UM "brass".
November 1st, 2014 at 5:33 PM ^
Very good points and I'd also add he is going to be a better coach today than he was 5 years ago. People improve over time.
Well...most people.
November 1st, 2014 at 1:34 PM ^
November 1st, 2014 at 2:03 PM ^
November 2nd, 2014 at 7:29 AM ^
It is the only reason. You are correct.
I've heard that he is still real close with guys like Kolesar and other teammates. They talk Michigan constantly and follow the program with great passion. It's personal for Jim when Michigan suffers on the field. Make no mistake.
That's a bid edge in landing him.
November 1st, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
This was certainly interesting any may suggest it would take 2-3 years for him to turn this around. I think when you look at Stanford and San Francisco he's shown he can have a lot of success. He will need a great staff in order to succeed here.
I think we do have some very good coordinators but our positional coaches are just not that good and have helped to lead to the current state of our program. Hoke doesn't strike me as having a lot of influence anywhere; it's amazing and still hard to believe but the characterization of him being an overpaid cheerleader may be more true than false.
I just will never understand how Hoke claps through everything. Even last week against one of our rivals we turn the ball over clap * clap * clap. It's just insane but whatever we're probably getting a new coach and staff. Hopefully we, in the words of the knight from Indiana Jones, choose wisely this round.
November 1st, 2014 at 5:44 PM ^
This is not a 1 year turnaround even if Lombardi showed up next year. The offense next year is going to be "challenged" again. I see it as 2-3 years even with a home run hire.
But to your other point this is one of my favorite things about Harbaugh. He will replace underperforming position coaches (or coordinators) with no regret. None of this grandfathering bullshit, none of this "we'll give him another 2 years to see if he can work his way out of it".
Position coaching is the least appreciated part of college football - the ability to not just know stuff but teach it to a bunch of wide eyed guys with nothing but HS coaching when they show up is critical. I think Harbaugh would upgrade the position coaching immediately and if he makes any errors on that front they will nbe rectified in short order. And now with his reputation he will draw good position coaches a lot easier than he could have at Stanford.
November 1st, 2014 at 2:26 PM ^
Hackett played under Bo at Michigan 1972-1976.
Jack Harbaugh coached under Bo at Michigan 1973-1979.
Finckel is Einhorn. Einhorn is Finckel! Einhorn is a man!
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