Formation Notes: Northwestern still goes back to the Superback (a TE lined up as a FB in the shotgun) so I called that Gun SB. Michigan’s formation is a Nickel Wide AA (two LBs in the A gaps).

Nothing else that we haven’t seen before.

Substitution Notes: Julius Welschof made the DT rotation, which kind of goes Hinton-Smith, Jenkins-Morris, Jeter-Welschof, Speight-George, but with Morris as a DT/OLB swingman. Ojabo again got the majority of OLB snaps, with Morris backing up Hutchinson for a few plays and Harrell next in line for Ojabo. Colson started at WLB but after his screen adventures that was a shared job with Hill-Green again. DJ Turner II started over Green at cornerback and played awesomely, though I noted Gray was still the one trusted on an island in their split coverages.

Lucky me this week. Fox(+2) with the good crew. Klatt explains things so well that UFRing those plays afterwards feels superfluous. Gus is so into it. The best, and leagues above the rest.

[After THE JUMP: Wisconsin but with screens.]

Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	4	PA TE Wheel	Ojabo	29	2.53
Blitz Dax and drop Ojabo(-2, cov-2) who does not get depth or anything like it because he's a DE. Rollout cancels pressure. RPS-2.
M46	1st	10	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Run		Down G	Hinton	2	-0.42
They fold the backside G to kick Hutch and run off a double of Hinton(+2) that he stones then makes the tackle himself, sorta, as Ojabo(-0.5, tackling-1) arrives then falls off and the guy falls forward for 2.
M44	2nd	8	Offset Bunch Tight	4-2-5	4-3 Under	1	RPO	4	Bubble	Turner	-3	-1.87
They try to edge Turner(+3) who shoots into the WR before the blocker can get out there. RPS+2 they were RPOing Hutchinson and he crashed on the RB to force this outlet I guess.
M47	3rd	11	Gun Trips Bunch	4-2-5	515 Odd	1	Pass	5	Out	Gray	Inc	-1.16
Hutch(+3, PR+3) edges the RT immediately and the guy grabs then lets go. Thus freed, Hutch gets his hands up and bats a pass aimed at Gray(-1, cov-1) who did give up some room. Hinton(+1) was also coming through. Colson(+0.5) and Hill(+0.5) and Turner(+0.5) all in perfect man coverage.
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 13 min 1st Q. Beginning to feel a lot like Wisconsin.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O33	1st	10	Gun Empty	5-1-5	515 Odd	1	Pass	5	Hitch	Turner	4	-0.15
Spread and dink to a receiver on the ground after 4 yards. Turner is around it, cov push. Morris(+1, PR+1) had his T planted in the QB's feet even though it's out immediately.
O37	2nd	6	Gun Empty	5-1-5	515 Under	1	Pass	5	Tunnel Screen	Ross	Inc	-0.90
Don't know if Ross, who seemed a beat late, would get there before the OL did because Hilinski threw it off Ojabo's helmet and it careens OOB. They treat it as a forward pass.
O37	3rd	6	Gun Double Stacks	4-2-5	Nk Wide B	1	Pass	4	Dumpoff	Ross	2	-0.51
Three-man rush (RPS+2) vs max pro so nothing to do but dump it off in front of Ross(+2, Cov+3) who immediately blows this guy up. Hutch got held at the end but immaterially.
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 8 min 1st Q. Maybe this is why I felt so confident at halftime?
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O20	1st	10	Offset Twins	5-2-4	5-3 Over	1	Run		Dart G	Welschof	1	-0.47
Pull the front G and flare the T and TE to try to get around while not blocking the DT, who is Welschof(+1, tackling-1, RPS+2) who is like I guess I will go tackle that guy then. He doesn't get him down but Hutch(+1) and NHG(+1) are now in there and end it at the LOS.
O21	2nd	9	Offset Twins stack	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2	Pass	6	Flanker Screen	Ross	8	0.46
They catch M blitzing Dax and he nearly bats it down. Ross(+1) got over in a hurry as Hawkins came down from way high. RPS-2.
O29	3rd	1	Ace	5-2-4	Goal Line	0	Pass	6	PE TE Screen	Harrell	5	1.06
Yikes. Hawkins(-3) or Hill forgets to take the Y who is running completely free. They both point at the F but Dax is inside, unless he means for the OLB to take it. That is Harrell(-2, cov-4), who chips but doesn't delay or cover the F and Hilinski loops it over his head for the first before Jenkins(+1, PR+1) can stop it. Glad Hilinski never saw the Y or it's a 70-yard TD.
O34	1st	10	Gun Empty	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	4	Curls	Ross	Inc	-0.99
Hutch(-1) tries an inside move and the LT stones him. Going on that guy's highlight reel I bet. No such luck for the inside where Hinton(+1) and Smith(+1, PR+2) have pushed their way to uncomfortable Covid range. Hilinski doesn't know where his WR is and fires it at Ross(+1, Cov+3) who would have had an INT if he wasn't in good. Everybody else was running short routes and well covered as well.
O34	2nd	10	Pistol FB Unbal	5-2-4	5-3 Odd	1	Play-Action	4.5	F Seam	Turner	Inc	-0.57
Turner(+1, cov+1) is a step behind JJ Jefferson but the ball is a little short and that's all he needs to close the gap and go up with WR. Results-based.
O34	3rd	10	Gun SB	4-2-5	Nk Wide AA	1	Pass	7	Post	Colson	Inc	-0.11
Bring the house and Ross(+2, RPS+2) is about to sack when the TE comically reaches back and grabs his collar. (Refs-3, insane!). Hilinski has to get rid of it and has room because Colson(-1, Cov-1) isn't dropping far enough, but off his back foot with a collared Josh Ross barking at him and Moten(+2, PR+4) in his legs now after dipping around the RB, this sails way wide.
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 3 min 1st Q. If Northwestern's going to score it's going to be a 70-yarder or something, I say to the people around me.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Offset I Twins	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2	Play-Action	5	Rollout Dumpoff	Hutchinson	0	-0.70
They chip and roll to the side of Hutch(+2, PR+2). This is widely considered a "bad idea" and as soon as the QB realizes this, which is the moment when he's 12 yards deep and Hutch has one of those long arms in contact with the QB's off arm, Hilinski chucks it at the knees of his chippy TE who had NHG(+1, Cov+2) and Hinton(+1) closing in if he caught it. He does not. The end.
O25	2nd	10	Offset 2TE Bunch	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	1	Run		Split Zone	Smith	2	-0.23
Smith(+2) stands up a double and makes first contact in the gap and they fall over for 2. Jenkins(+0.5) stood up his RT. Hill(-1 tackling-1) was a bit slow sticking his nose in there—they switched sides to make him the WLB before the snap and he's not a LB.
O27	3rd	8	Gun SB	4-2-5	Nk Wide BA	2	Pass	4	Sack	Hutchinson	-12	0.01
Power rushed to death, led by Hutch(+2) who gets through the RT and starts pawing at the ball, and Ojabo(+2) who gets Big Held (refs-2), and Morris(+1, PR+4) who then all meet at Hilinski who's just trying to save the ball while Ojabo gets tackled into his knees and Morris is shoving in.
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 11 min 2nd Q. Starting to think a) Shutout, and b) These officials might not be on the level.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Run		ZR Stretch	Colson	75	6.03
Welp. Ojabo(-1) attacks the QB to give him an easy read when this is Hilinksi. Smith(-0.5) and Hinton(-0.5) are both a hair late falling off their blocks or they get this down early. But the big issue is Colson(-2) funneled to Ross, who's outside the TE to prevent a pass to that guy, instead of Hawkins, who's come down on the other side to replace him. Then Moten(-3) is suddenly possessed by the spirit of Ryan Mundy and runs INTO a tight end instead of at the running back. Ross(-0.5) and Hawkins(-0.5) can't catch up.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 10-7. 2 min 2nd Q. Next drive is kneeling and not charted.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O20	1st	10	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	5	Yackety Snap	Hutchinson	-6	-0.86
Oops.
O14	2nd	16	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Under	1	Pass	4	Verts	Turner	Inc	-0.09
Back out Hutch and bring Colson, who gets perfectly form tackled (Refs-2, PR+1) by the RB. Ball is long but Turner(+1) and Hawkins(+1, Cov+2) have this well-bracketed.
O14	3rd	16	Gun SB	4-2-5	Nk Over	1	Pass	4	Slip Screen	Colson	26	2.58
Holistic screen defense failure. Colson(-2, tackling-1) is in position to set an edge as Morris tags, but shoots inside a guard who only needs a little shove to run him past the RB. Moten(-2) makes the same mistake when Ross(-1) is coming to help then Ross reroutes and misses his angle. Gray(-2) was in man but could still end this except he got blocked into the sideline and they get the first down.
O40	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Run		Counter Trey	Hill	2	-0.53
I like how they run trey, with the RB on the playside and orbit motion that could be a triple-option. However Hill(+2, RPS+1) is blitzing off the back edge to put UM up a guy. Ojabo(+1) pinches and shoulders the kickout. Welschof(-1) is getting wiped by a double he has to spin off, but that makes one guy fall and he picks off the puller. Tradeoff is this removed a DT and Ross(-1) is hesitant to shoot the gap before the other doubler can recover. By now though Dax has the RB's feet and the delay lets everyone else rally.
O42	2nd	8	Offset Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	4	Curls	Ojabo	Inc	-1.08
Tempo(26). They want a quick dumpoff under Moten(+1, cov+1) that he's in position to break up or hold to 4 at most as he rolls down in Cov3 (RPS+1). Ball never gets there because Ojabo(+2) batted it. A heads-up NW RB volleyball strikes it to NHG's chest before Ross can intercept.
O42	3rd	8	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	4	Tunnel Screen	Hill	13	2.89
Think this one is all on Hill(-2) who's in man on the slot and comes inside the TE instead of setting an edge. Now there's no edge and the WR can run inside instead of into Ross(+1) who was up and in his gap.
M45	1st	10	Offset Wk	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Play-Action	4	Flash Screen	Hill	7	0.51
Tempo(22). Fitz trying to do a tempo change, where he changed early and snaps as soon as the ref allows. They try to edge Dax Hill(-0.5, RPS-1) and catch him stepping inside at flow action for a free little chunk.
M38	2nd	3	Ace Trips Bunch	4-2-5	4-3 Split	1	Run		Pitch Sweep	Hutchinson	4	0.02
Tempo(26). Formation makes Dax the WLB and they try to edge him. Hutch(-1) is trying to get outside and swims inside a guy when compressing this should work fine. Hill(+2, tackling-1) beats a blocker outside and sets up for a TFL, but whiffs on his tackle, which would have been a +3 if it worked but does force the RB into falling forward mode. RPS-1 because Michigan was blitzing Ross and that erased him.
M34	1st	10	Gun Wk H tight	4-2-5	Nk Even	1	Pass	4	Fly	Turner	15	0.33
Smith(+2, PR+2) breaks through a single block and is coming to sack so the ball has to get out. They're targeting Turner(+2, cov+2) in man and he's step for step with the WR who then throws Turner to the ground. Refs-4 call it on Turner, so now we have two of CFB’s all-time worst calls in the last two games vs this team.
M19	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	4	Flash Screen	Hill	-2	-0.53
They try to edge Dax Hill(+1, tackling+1) but really they got fooled by Michigan lining Moten up over Hill which is usually a sign he's blitzing, RPS+3. Hilinski pump fakes and should probably TA but throws it anyways and gets his WR lit up.
M21	2nd	12	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	4	Stop and Go	Turner	Inc	-0.53
A very good pickup by the RB on NHG(-1, PR-2) and Morris(-0.5) and Smith(-0.5) are stonewalled on the edge. Hilinski want this sluggo against a split (man/Cov3) coverage but there's no room since Turner(push, cov+3) stayed well high but was shading inside and might not have been in range to PBU if the ball's accurate (it isn't) while Gray(+1) had the X locked down in man. RPS+1.
M21	3rd	12	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Split B	2	Pass	4	Slip Screen	Ross	Inc	-3.33
RPS+2 as Michigan is done getting screened and puts Ross(+2) on an RB tag. He PBUs.
Drive Notes: Missed FG(39). 17-7. The refs are trying to win the game and Northwestern's screwing it up.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Wk	5-1-5	515 Odd	1	Pass	5	Slant	Hill	5	0.09
Quick bullet and Hill(+1, cov-1) has no inside help (RPS-1) but makes this supremely difficult. Might have bounced, NW tempos so they can't look at it.
O30	2nd	5	Ace Trips Bunch	5-1-5	515 Over	1	Run		Pitch Sweep	Hutchinson	1	-0.63
Tempo(30). Hutch(+2) isn't getting edged this time, compresses everything, nearly TFLs at -5. Ross(+1) is about to finish the job but an OL who tried to cut him grabs his foot as he goes over (Refs-1). Hill(+1) by now has gotten outside and shoves a TE into the RT to set a new edge, and Morris(+0.5) and Hawkins(+0.5) are there to stuff.
O31	3rd	4	Gun Str Bunch	5-1-5	515 Odd	1	Pass	4.5	Z Flat	Gray	Inc	-0.39
Ain't waiting for a pass rush. Gray(+1, cov+2) is in position to stuff or PBU, everyone else well covered, throw goes high.
Drive Notes: Punt. 17-7. 6 min 3rd Q.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O18	1st	10	Offset Str	5-1-5	515 Odd	2	Pass	3	Dig	Ojabo	Inc	-0.51
Drop Welshof and Ojabo, bring three, which I'm not sure that's the plan? It works, since Hutch(+2, PR+2), leaves the RT grasping at air like he's c.1997 Seth Fisher trying to catch an acceptance letter to Medill. Ojabo(+2, Cov+3) knocks it down. RPS+2 I guess since they dropped an entire side of the DL and got a single-blocked Hutch and a throw at where the guys all dropped to. RT leaves the field after.
O18	2nd	10	Gun 2TE Twins	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	Pass	5	Flash Screen	Hawkins	4	-0.04
RPS-1 as they catch M blitzing Hill again, but this time Hawkins(+2) is screaming down at it and holds it to a small gain.
O22	3rd	6	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Wide	2	Pass	4	Slip Screen	Hinton	1	0.04
Almost get us again as Morris(-1) gets chucked and doesn't turn around. Luckily Ojabo(+1) turned the new RT right away and is harassing Hilinski so that the throw is low and upfield of the RB. This gives Hinton(+1) time to pursue and Colson(+1) time to shoot between the blockers and force it OOB too far from the sticks to go for it.
Drive Notes: Punt. 24-7. 4 min 3rd Q. Still with the screens man.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O15	1st	10	Gun Str Bunch Jet Motion	5-2-4	5-2 Over	1	Play-Action	4.5	Switch Route	Hawkins	15	0.93
This is the drive NW is switching their strength before every snap, M switches with them. Coverage happens off-screen so I can't tell if Green and Hawkins are supposed to switch on the old MSU switch route, but Hawkins(-1, cov-2) gets down on the Wheel-stop portion late and NHG(-1) as the lone LB is sucked in too much by the PA to help underneath it.
O30	1st	10	Offset Twins	5-2-4	5-2 Odd	2	Run		Split Buck TC	Jenkins	0	-0.86
Ooh let's copy this. RPS-1 since the "LB" in the gap here becomes Green(-1) who's at safety depth and afraid to come down. They flow the F backside, kick with the frontside T, and pull the center. Also let's let Lorenz know he's not the only guy on the Kris Jenkins(+2) bandwagon because he two-gaps the TE who was supposed to block down on him. Smith(+1) does the same to the G on him so there's no gap behind that. Jenkins lets the lead blocker pull to nobody, gets an arm on the RB, and then Ross(+2) arrives after skipping past the backside G who released to him and tracking this across the formation to hit in the hole.
O30	2nd	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Nk Under	2	Pass	4	Hitch	Turner	-23	-4.89
Line boops to an under right before the snap and Hutch(+1) gets triple-teamed to give the rest of the guys singles. Ojabo(+2, PR+2) wins against the LT who has to tackle him, no flag (refs-2). Ball goes to a hitch that Turner(+3, Cov+3) is all over. He breaks it up, tips it back to himself, and returns it 23 yards.
Drive Notes: Interception. 27-7. 14 min 4th Q. Calm yourself. It's just one game.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun Wk Demi	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Run		Jet Sweep Bash	Hutchinson	6	0.33
Hutch(+2) again won't get edges, pushing a convoy of blockers three yards deep which should be plenty for pursuit to catch up. Barrett(-2) is late getting out there and gets edged by the RB lead block. Hawkins(+1 tackling) cleans up violently.
O31	2nd	4	Gun Wk Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Split	2	Pass	4	Slants	Green	Inc	-0.87
Quick slant to avoid the rush, Green(+1, cov+1) takes an arm shove when the ball's in the air (refs-1) but stays in position to break up if it's on target. It goes outside.
O31	3rd	4	Gun Trips Z Motion	4-2-5	Nk Even	2	Pass	5	Rollout Pick	Green	Inc	-0.39
RT shoves Hutch into a chop block by the RB (refs-3: here’s the rule) and he goes down, fortunately not injured. Also we should get Hutch off the field because it's 33-7 and they're not calling ANYTHING. Like for example OPI on this pick five yards downfield on a throw past the LOS that I'm again putting on Green(-2, cov-2) because if you're not switching you're supposed to be jamming. Throw is off-target or maybe the WR was supposed to run it shallow so his boys could block legally doesn't matter.
Drive Notes: Punt. 33-7. 12 min 4th Q. We've already got backups so one more drive.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O44	1st	10	Gun Str Y-Flex	4-2-5	Nk Over	2	RPO		IZ/Bubble	Welschof	2	-0.53
They're going at Welschof(+1) again but he stands up his G. Ojabo(-1) softened the edge as a gamble he can control the bounce but can't. Barrett(-0.5, tackling-1) hops outside but falls off, Moten(-1, tackling-1) hits but falls off, Turner finishes.
O46	2nd	8	Offset 2TE Jet	4-2-5	4-3 Split	2	Play-Action		PA Z Flare	Barrett	7	0.47
PA sucks in Barrett(-2, cov-2) and NHG(-0.5) but a late throw from Hilinski gives them time to pursue. It's about to be a 1st when the guy fumbles it OOB. Refs-2, specifically our suspect line judge who saw the fumble, tries to spot them the first down anyways, Harbaugh challenges the catch and Michigan is charged a timeout, but they do place it back where the ball went out.
M47	3rd	1	????	4-2-5	???	1	Run		Midline Power Read	Hutchinson	0	-1.19
Come back to this late and they're trying to edge Hutch(+2) who fights through a TE chip to set up, get a give, and stop a yard short with help from an unblocked Welschof(+1)
M47	4th	1	Ace 2TE Bunch	5-2-4	Goal Line	NA	Run		Yackety Snap	n/a	-2	-4.46
Backup QB fumbles the under-center snap, Hutch falls on it but doesn't matter.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs or Fumble whatever. 33-7. 9 min 4th Q. Next drive is all backups. Whittley shoves a guy 3 yards in the backfield, Barrett gets held on 3rd and 5, Speight and George hold up to some heavy ball, then they blow a 3rd and 7 screen.

What happened on the disaster play?

That’s really where you want to start after a nearly wholesale hamblasting of a crappy offense?

Yes, it’s the only thing I remember, or at least the only thing I remember that wasn’t a screen or a doomed running play or…something else that my brain is rejecting.

Okay well Brian nailed it on the podcast, but there was more. For one, as we are all too aware, if you’ve got a non-running quarterback you shouldn’t hand him a 100% give read as Ojabo does here. But that’s not the focus. Before you hit play check the two linebackers: Junior Colson on the left hash, Josh Ross to OUR right (his left), and Brad Hawkins coming down the other side. The key blocker here is #77, the left tackle, who’s pulling from the left.

If you have two linebackers and one of them is getting blocked, the blocked one has to “funnel” to the other one, IE take the opposite side. Colson is still new at this, but he wouldn’t be on the field if he isn’t good at funneling, and when he funnels he’s used to funneling to Josh Ross.

This time that is the wrong reaction. Michigan is having Ross stay outside that tight end to take away any screens or funny business, and replacing him with Hawkins. Roll tape.

Here’s our problem. Colson should be funneling to Hawkins this time, getting to LT#77’s right shoulder so the back has to head towards Hawkins. Ross is out playing safety. But Colson is used to funneling to Ross, and blows it. He remains in the gap Hawkins is expecting to collect the spill.

That should be a chunk of yards but for RJ Moten, who had his first truly bad game in a Wolverine uniform. They came to this play late out of the commercial break but Moten is the deep safety on the M at midfield. For some reason known only to the spirit of Ryan Mundy that still haunts Michigan’s safety depth, Moten runs himself right into the tight end, falling over and doing nothing about the back suddenly loosed into his secondary.

Perhaps he too thought Hawkins was still back there next to him? Anyway this is a casualty of playing lots of Cover 2 and Cover 3. There are benefits too. See this play:

Lots of Cover 3 and Pattern Match teams start in two-high and roll down a safety, but part of that is you don’t know which safety is rolling. Hilinski knows once he snaps the ball he’s got about 1.2 seconds before his line sacrifices him to the helmet-winged demons, so the quarterback is going to get as much of his reading done before the snap. He sees Hawkins high and Moten low, which suggests either they’re in Cover 2 and the WLB has the slot receiver in the flat, or they’re rolling down Moten and the WLB still has the slot receiver in the flat. Hilinski decides he’s going to throw to the slot receiver in the flat. Roll film.

It gets batted, but if it’s thrown Hawkins is arriving to thunk, break it up, or if the ball gets there too late, pick-six it. Ojabo’s in a dangerous spot but there’s no time to double-clutch this or the window’s gone. He throws, it’s batted, and only a heads-up play by the RB saves an interception.

Also I remember Gus or Joel making a wheezing noise at a tight end who was open for a 70 yarder if his QB saw him.

Yeah, a bust. Before this (from memory at the game) there was a ton of pointing as Michigan tried to get lined up, and in that point-a-thon both Hill and Hawkins pointed at the F-back. Oh no. From this alignment it’s pretty clear Hawkins should have the Y, #89. He does not take him, but the QB is under so much pressure he can’t exactly look downfield. He sees the guy he’s supposed to check coming open, and gets rid of the ball as soon as that guy clears Harrell.

It’s also possible that the TE was on Ross, and that Hawkins was letting him know that by pointing at the RB. Hawkins does seem focused on #11 all play. Hard to know who was at fault without being in the room. I chose Hawkins. I could be convinced Ross.

Was that what was itching you?

No. It’ll come to me. What happened on those screen plays?

The 3rd and 16 was the biggie, and that, again started with Colson in the wrong gap and went horribly wrong when Moten went the wrong way.

#25 the LB by the lower hash

Linemen release and Colson waits a beat before attacking, then attacks the inside of the lineman instead of funneling back to his help, which is Moten coming down from on high. If you’re early enough you can shoot that gap and make a TFL, but on 3rd and 16 there’s no need to hot dog. Moten now has an issue because Colson is technically in his gap and this lineman owns the edge. He should funnel to his help, Ross, by getting outside that lineman—remember a ten-yard gain is still a punt in this situation. Moten then hot dogs as well, and he misses. Now Ross has to get outside but he’s got no angle to beat the RB to the sideline. Finally Gray has been put into his own bench by the wide receiver, and that’s the last of the yards.

Think of it yet?

I’m trying. My brain is just shutting me down. Something about the coverage maybe?

The first play you mean. Right, so David Ojabo is not quite coached up yet on being a true outside linebacker.

He’s the curl-flat guy, and has a tight end in the flat. Gotta carry him. Tough for a DE to have that down. I think that’s like all the bad plays?

It’s something the coaches did I think? Like some magnificent wonderful surprise.

Well Macdonald had some RPS victories by hiding coverages. I couldn’t tell if this one was on purpose.

Who drops out an entire side of the line on 1st down? It’s the start of a drive with less than a third of the game left after Michigan went up three scores so they’re probably not in run mode, but that’s still kinda weird. I bet Welschof missed the message. Anyway it’s a surprise, and surprises when Hutchinson is bearing down off the edge are nasty. A team that can get that kind of pass rush with three guys is nastier. And then you have to remember this team will totally bring them all on you.

That’s a sack if the tight end doesn’t commit the kind of hold that any ref who deserves to get another Big Ten gig will call. Macdonald won a majority of these guessing games, which are just that—guesses—I think. Do you leave guys in to protect yourself from a Rossination, or do you put more guys in routes? Get the offense guessing too and you get moments like a crucial third down where they’re in max protect versus three pass rushers, and your best option is getting your running back lit up like a candle by Captain Ross.

What happened on virtually every other play in the game?

Crush. Smunch. CRRAAACKK. JokerSaysSix dot gif all over again.

Northwestern tried moving the tackles out of the way but they wouldn’t budge, tried cracking the edges but got them caved in instead, and ultimately tried moving the ball with screens and more screens, which worked on some third downs when Michigan got aggressive with the pass attacks. The Wolverines adapted, and that was that. At some point in the bleary-eyed charting hours I went back and put a cyan on Ryan Hilinski, who was the worst QB we’ve seen since Graham Mertz’s backup. The result, in drives before the garbage one:

• 1-play, 75-yard touchdown at the end of the half that made us mad online for 20 minutes.
• 12-play, 59-yard missed FG drive made entirely of screens, and abetted by the worst pass interference call in conference history.
• Six-and-out that was five duds and a screen.
• A three-play drive that gained 15 yards then gave it all back plus interest on an interception.
• One four-and-out.
• Six three-and-outs, one which went on 4th down and fumbled the snap.

Crush. I can plot the expected points added if you want to see how much it resembled the Wisconsin trouncing. That didn’t have as dramatic a dip, but you can still figure out which bad plays were which, and when they stopped happening.

These charts aren’t as valuable on defense because stringing three positives together means you don’t get more. From a points perspective, the turnover and turnover on downs were each worth almost as the TD they gave up, and led to the second Big Ten game this year when the defense can take credit for a significant portion of the final margin. Translation: they kicked ass.

Do you have another way to calculate this kicking of ass?

A chart work?

Chartwerks.

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hinton	6	0.5	+5.5	Lots of rotation so this was in 29 snaps.
Smith	6	1	+5	Ditto. Won't move on doubles, can't be singled.
Jenkins	3.5		+3.5	Still room on the bandwagon if you act today.
Jeter			0	DNC
Speight			0	DNC
Whittley	2		+2	Goal line, chucked a guy back 3 yards in garbage time.
Welschof	3	1	+2	Spun off a double, agility is a plus vs small lines.
Hutchinson	17	2	+15	The usual.
Morris	2.5	1.5	+1	Third-best rusher, needs to do better vs screens.
Ojabo	10	4.5	+5.5	Not a great coverage DE, led B10 in PBUs this week.
Harrell		2	-2	The small issue on the 3rd and 1 with the open TEs.
Upshaw			0	DNP
McGregor			0	DNC
TOTAL	50	12.5	+37.5	Screens were the right move.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Ross	12	2.5	+9.5	Mr. Fix-It in this game.
Hill-Green	2	2.5	-0.5	The boring LB.
Colson	1.5	5	-3.5	Two of the breakdowns were teachable moments.
Mullings			0	DNP
Barrett		4.5	-4.5	Was in the rotation, showed why he hasn't been: Not a LB.
TOTAL	15.5	14.5	+1	First time my LB scoring has matched the propaganda.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hill	7	4	+3	A whole drive of trying to edge Dax Hill, didn't work out.
Hawkins	4.5	4.5	0	-3 for the 3rd and 1 with the open TEs.
Moten	3	6	-3	Main culprit on the TD. Also on the 3rd and 16 screen.
Kolesar			0	But the first backup inserted, secret special teams weapon.
Moore			0	DNC
Paige			0	DNC
Gray	2	3	-1	Positive in coverage, final culprit on 3rd and 16 screen.
Gem.Green	1	3	-2	Still an issue on switches. Jam or Switch.
Turner	10.5		+10.5	Holeeeeeeeee shit.
McBurrows			0	DNC
TOTAL	28	20.5	+7.5	Wait'll you see the coverage.
Metrics
Pressure	24	2	+22	And yet they didn't get a single holding call. Weird.
Coverage	26	15	+11	Caveat Hilinski, but this was good.
Tackling	2	7	-5	Several on one play.
RPS	18	9	+9	Wasn’t even trying that hard.

Ah see ye'v come aroond oan mah wee laddie.

David Ojabo has won the WOLB sweepstakes. He is the starter. The pass rush parts that got him there you know about. What impresses me is coming back from a day of the kickout mines on the offensive UFR and finding Ojabo putting dents in the run game that I would flip out about if it happened to a Michigan guard or tight end.

#55 the OLB at the bottom of the formation

One less thing to worry about.

And the tackles…we are not remotely worried about the tackles anymore!

It feels weird, and Northwestern wasn’t much of a test, but here’s another round of rampant lions. The Wildcat offensive line had scarcely been introduced when Hinton tore through them to generate the first stuff of the afternoon.

When Michigan went back to their 5-man fronts in the 2nd quarter doubling Smith and Hinton was an invitation to disaster.

Kris Jenkins ruined a play Northwestern had been saving for just this look because he Wormley’d the tight end, sat down in the gap, and when the running back showed in it Jenkins held him at the checkpoint until Ross could come check his credentials.

#94, the 2nd lineman from the bottom of the formation

As it turned out that back did not have permission to pass the line of scrimmage and was forcefully turned back.

Und was ist mit meinem Buckelpistenfahrer?

Was that Scottish?

Deutsch.

Right, a wild German mogul skiier appeared.

He’s still more Anchor than DT, and not many teams are going to trot out three interior OL under 300 pounds like Northwestern was willing to, and this is not how you *want* your sixth DT to take on a double-team. But it’s interesting. Welschof is an athlete on a completely different level with the rest of the tackles. He can pull this off, and become a major nuisance if left unblocked in pursuit, or if read on a midline option. I don’t know what that means in this rotation—I think for the moment I’d rather have good solid Speight if we’re trotting out the third team—but Welschof’s presence in the rotation is a very good sign for his future. He doesn’t have to become a full DT; if he can be a pass-rushing one who’s not death if he gets locked on the field, that’s a dangerous weapon to add to your arsenal.

Also I think I’ve figured out what the thing was that your brain won’t let you compute.

Oh?

The cornerbacks.

The cohuwhat?

The cornerbacks. They were good, DJ Turner II especially.

Cohrmerjacks…?

Were good.

OH. MY. GOD.

There it is.

Wait, what are you doing! Those cornerback grades! Those coverage grades! WHAT ARE YOU DOING!!!!

Hey, my chart!

[AXE!]

I worked hard on that!

[AXE! AXE! AXE! /throws axe]

Why would you do that?

Do you not understand what you’ve done? Do you not know who we’re playing this weekend? Ricky White is this weekend!

Ricky White doesn’t even play.

I am not party to this.

I’m not sure I believe it either, but I mean, this is good, right?

He read a screen.

Okay but he did cornerback things. Like he stayed with a receiver on a vertical route all the way down the field without help.

Was a step behind there, man. QB shorted it.

Sigh, and this one?

Overthrown. Also who is that guy? Their dudes are #5 and #6. #3 is not one of their dudes.

JJ Jefferson, track guy they brought back from injury.

So not a Ricky White.

Yeah, but…

You’re not going to tell me that picking off a hitch while playing tight Cover 2 is wide-receiver dependent.

Tipping it to yourself like that is just luck; nobody does that on purpose.

Well that was a +10 cornerback performance when the one thing you wanted more than anything in the whole wide world was the emergence of a young cornerback before Michigan State. What more do you need to see?

That he won’t turn back into a grabbypants as soon as he’s exposed to Jalen Nailor instead of this refurbished tracklete.

Jalen Nailor himself is a refurbished tracklete you know. But I see your point: We all have the same PTSD, and we all know the remedy. I’d rather have a breakout cornerback performance going into East Lansing than a repeat of Nebraska. Also I’m looking forward to what an Aidan Hutchinson who doesn’t have to cover for the DTs can do against their tackles.

Tell me  you clipped a bunch of wild Aidan Hutchinson crap.

From the get-go.

More.

MORE

GOOD LORD THAT’S CRUEL

Yeah, the RT left after that one. I don’t even think he got injured; he was just like “I’m not beating this level and I don’t want to try anymore.”

MOOOOOOORRRRRRRE

I showed this one earlier but here’s one of the times they rushed three, but but one was Hutchinson:

I’m feeling better now.

And on the interception, go back and see how the line was set.

That puts three guys on Hutchinson, and three guys for the rest of the rushers. There was a lot of that crap, legal and otherwise (the chop block was the worst). Hutchinson got chipped from every backfielder from every angle, and each of those chips was an eligible receiver not in a good route.

But you gave him two negatives.

Northwestern did come prepared with a few different attacks, one of them an old fashioned pitch sweep. On the first they ran at him, Hutchinson swam inside one lineman then realized his mistake and had to fight back outside. The second time they ran it at him he stayed outside and squeezed everyone trying to join him, setting up a huge TFL for Josh Ross if the lineman he hurdled hadn’t reached out and caught his ankle on the way.

Are any of these penalties getting called? The officials…

…were amateur hour. People get mad about holds that aren’t holds all the time—you’re allowed to keep your hand on a guy’s chest, and most refs will let you get away with a little more if you then make a show that you let go. Bodies jerking awkwardly is another matter. There wasn’t a single penalty call drawn by Hutchinson, nor was their one drawn by Ojabo, or a blitzing Josh Ross, or a pursuing Josh Ross, or any other Michigan defender.

And then there’s the all-timer.

…and the charting you saw yesterday on the other side of the ball, which was apparently so lenient on the stripes that Jon Chait is in my mentions defending Daylen Baldwin because he got held on the Sainristil fumble.* It’s been an issue all season, but the missed calls in this game were particularly bad, entirely one-sided, and started to become dangerous at the end.

Some of the egregious non-calls occurred on failed third and longs, or on sacks that would have gotten the penalties declined, when not throwing the flag just saved everybody’s time. “They’re not doing their jobs” isn’t a good excuse, but it’s not nefarious.

My point is it’s not their jobs. They have zero accountability, not to the fully professionalized programs, nor the fans paying fully professional prices, because we’re still using amateurs who do this for a few thousand bucks on the weekends, and a league that wants us to believe they’re mystics.

Even in a pandemic, the ~$2 million it would cost the conference to hire full-time officiating crews with medical benefits and weekly training is chump change, would net them the best officials in the world, and would be a selling point in recruiting against the other conferences since nobody hates bush league refs more than elite, hypercompetitive athletes. Grading them openly and allowing them to engage with fans would enhance performance and give those wronged a sense of justice. Mickey Rule Books has been an enormous success.

Since Michigan gets boned as much as Penn State thinks they do, I would like Michigan to make this a priority at the league level, and I’m saying it now after a 33-7 game because we all know it’s going to come up again.

*[For the record it was a hold that should have been called, but I still hold Baldwin responsible.]

Did they try to edge Dax Hill this week?

Like for a whole drive!

How did it work out for them?

Worked then it didn’t. Hill messed one up himself by trying to shoot inside instead of setting an edge.

It may be that was another Colson-like mistake, where he forgot where the help was. Northwestern also got a rare successful play on 1st and 10 by catching Hill trying to have it both ways, and leaning towards the run. The flow action from the F tight end (the one on the top of the formation) put Hill in a bind between crashing that edge and covering the WR in the flat. If you can do both your defense becomes un-RPO-able in Cover 2. It’s a total cheat. He wasn’t a total cheat, but he was close.

That one is so far outside it’s in range of where Green should have a chance to break on it, and that was what you saw when Turner took his turn. Green got a later start so he set the edge and let them have the yards. It’s not a negative.

The next time they tried to RPO Hill between an edge by the hash mark and a screen by the numbers, Michigan simply had a DE committed to the edge again, meaning Dax was free to blow this up.

This where having a guy who can survive being given two jobs gets you secret plays, because sometimes he has one job and he is very good at it.

Who’s Mr. Worldwide this week?

As a reminder, our criteria here are versatility, the ability to make your teammates better, being cool against long odds, and enjoying time spent under highway overpasses. This is decided after the second UFR. Your top three this week:

1. DJ Turner II. He tackled, he covered, he intercepted, and returned, and that allowed Michigan to commit other material to blitzes and run defense. This from a guy we didn’t have starting, who looked terrible last year and early this year, and who bounced around in high school because they weren’t sure he had the speed to play. Hung out under long fly routes all day like they were highway overpasses.

2. David Ojabo. Scot who’s supposed to be behind played edge, SDE, WDE, and OLB roles, led the B10 in PBUs, stayed on the field when his position has been the most rotated on the team up until recently, crushed a TE trying to kick him so others could get a TFL, huge grade separation between his stats and his charting as the refs let the OL tackle him with impunity, and “Grade Separation” is another word for a highway overpass.

3. Julius Welschof. If the Scot’s a surprise, the German mogul skiier’s reemergence in the DT rotation—and on the field as often as any of them after the starters—was a huge surprise. Dropped into coverage once so he’s not just another ugly face. Spun off a double-team which looked dangerous but then made his teammates look cool by filling the space behind him. Came to our attention in the first place by posting silly workout videos under highway overpasses.

HMs (half points). Chris Hinton. Chuck Filiaga. Joel Honigford. Andrel Anthony.

3-2-1 point system so our standings are:

7: Aidan Hutchinson
5: Erick All
4: Hassan Haskins
3: Ronnie Bell, Ryan Hayes, Daxton Hill, DJ Turner II
2: Mike Sainristil, Junior Colson, Josh Ross, David Ojabo
1.5: Andrew Stueber.
1: Nikhai Hill-Green, Cade Kolesar, Cade McNamara, Luke Schoonmaker, Julius Welschof, Chris Hinton
0.5: Mazi Smith, Blake Corum, Joel Honigford, Andrel Anthony, Chuck Filiaga

Heroes?

DJ Turner II, Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Ross, Mazi and Hinton, Ojabo.

Maybe not so heroic?

RJ Moten and Junior Colson.

What does it mean for Michigan State and the future?

Maybe Turner can play? Maybe it says something about Gray that they saw him versus their best WR and Turner versus this other guy and thought Turner was their best option, even long after that was emphatically not the case.

Maybe the DTs are stars? I don’t know why I need one more outing like they’ve been having to star Hinton and Smith, but I do. Not that MSU’s OL are world beaters. But I do.

Maybe Josh Ross is their best linebacker. First game when they tried letting Colson and Hill-Green (and Barrett) do the hard linebacker stuff, and Ross exploded.

Maybe Junior Colson isn’t ready for the hard stuff Ross job. A couple of busts were on him blowing sophomore-level decisions; I think they’re using him more not because he’s that much ahead of Hill-Green but because they know they can trust Hill-Green while Colson needs these reps.

Maybe RJ Moten had a bad day. Very out of character for him. Did see one really good blitz.

Maybe bring back Don Brown’s famous “prepare to tackle” drill. I don’t remember so many missed tackles in past seasons, and that is one of those things that coaches who worship Don Brown always said about Don Brown (he really is one of the best tackling coaches in America). Good week to emphasize that since you REALLY don’t want to miss against Kenneth Walker.

Maybe the best edge tandem in America will draw a holding call again this season. Hutch/Ojabo getting the Gary/Winovich treatment, including on calls meant to prevent injury, is a terrifying development going into a road rivalry game with the remnants of Dantonio’s angels. Hopefully a week after it got this out of hand there will be a correction towards fairness.

None of this is real if they can’t beat MSU. At which point MSU will also be a bad team that Michigan should have been expected to beat, because that’s how it works.

Moment of Zen: