Unverified Voracity Has Obligatory Empty Stadium Photo
I wish I had anything other than grimace emojis to show you. Michigan announces limited seating at Michigan Stadium this fall "if U-M is able to have a 2020 football season":
- There will be no football season tickets. Status as a season ticket holder remains unchanged, and season ticket locations will be retained for the 2021 season.
- If U-M is able to have fans at Michigan Stadium, all home games will be sold on an individual game basis, with sales limited to current season ticket holders and students. There will be no ticket sales to the general public.
- For season ticket holders who elected to adjust their season ticket location/quantity during the June upgrade period, that new location/quantity will be retained for the 2021 season.
- Details regarding a potential individual game sale will be communicated once a decision on playing with or without fans is finalized.
- In the event that Michigan is able to have fans at any sporting event this season, all forms of ticketing will move to a mobile platform.
We've heard on background that we're looking at maybe 20k people, most of them students. Obviously this is a developing situation, as they say. If I was a betting man I'd guess the number of fans would be zero.
[After the JUMP: sucking yet more air through teeth]
The situation. Andy Staples on where we're at:
But given the current circumstances, the only way a season of any kind happens is with an acceptance of risk by school officials — including notoriously risk-averse presidents — that is much higher than it is now. It would require less focus on the number of positive tests and more focus on how many people are symptomatic. It would require less reaction to case numbers and more attention on hospital capacity. Because if students return to campuses, there will be cases. A lot of them. The data say the cohort that includes college students has a very low incidence of severe symptoms, but college students also will come in contact with older college professors and university staff members. They will come in contact with their own parents.
You can't bubble college football, and the country has fucked up its coronavirus response worse than anyone else in the world except maybe Brazil. So the way to justify playing the season is to shrug and assume everyone on a college campus is going to do keg stands off a symptomatic person and oh well.
Schools are pushing forward because the public relations need to seem financially precarious has left them with zero reserves despite skyrocketing revenues. Iowa State:
“Some people have suggested that we should simply play fall sports in the spring when the challenges of COVID-19 could be reduced,” Pollard wrote. “Unfortunately, there are no guarantee things will improve in the spring and there are numerous hurdles to overcome. The most significant challenge is committing another six months of operational costs (roughly $40 million in our case) for the fall semester with no revenues to cover those expenses.”
I wonder how much of that expense is salaries well over the 90th percentile. Here's an excellent piece from the FSU Rivals site (really):
According to the USA Today's college finances database, FSU spent $150 million on athletics in 2019. That is almost exactly double what the Seminoles spent on their athletics budget less than a decade ago in 2010.
Let that sink in for a moment.
I know we've heard so much through the years about the "arms race" in college sports that we kind of tune out the particulars, but let that one marinate. In 2010, FSU spent just over $75 million in athletics. By 2019, it was spending over $150 million.
Georgia, Texas, Michigan, Ohio State: same story everywhere. Even a place like ECU blew 700k on a consultant to try to fix the financial black hole the previous athletic director (who walked away with a seven figure golden parachute) left.
Anonymous AD says no dice. Pete Thamel has an anonymous Power 5 AD who says to pack up the lights and go home:
“Right now, I don’t see a path in the current environment to how we play,” said a Power Five athletic director. “I’m confident we’ll get back to what we all think of as normal, but it may be a year before that happens.”
Also this guy:
“Ultimately, no one is playing football in the fall,” said a high-ranking college official. “It’s just a matter of how it unfolds. As soon one of the ‘autonomy five’ or Power Five conferences makes a decision, that’s going to end it.”
At least his twitter isn't talking about an open letter. David Ojabo is still stuck in Scotland:
“You would think I’m lying, but I’m living out of my suitcase,” Ojabo said, laughing. “If they say, ‘Come on,’ I wash whatever I need and literally just zip it up. I haven’t unpacked to this day. That’s how we’ve really been waiting. It’s no joke.
“I thought I was only going to be home for two or three weeks. Then quickly weeks turned into a month, turned to two months, turned to three months. This whole time, I’m thinking, ‘Maybe I could catch a break, catch a flight.’ Nothing. I’ve done it this way for my mental state. The second I unpack and get comfortable – this is me trying to not get too attached to being home.”
The bizarre option he's been presented with: fly to Australia, self-quarantine for two weeks, and then fly to the US.
He'll get through this. This is how many college sophomores live even when they get to their dorm or apartment. I am disappointed this is going to blunt Ojabo's ability to be this offseason's Loch Ness Monster, as it were. Now I will name other Scottish things: golf, scotch, waffles(dubious), patter, something called Irn Bru(?).
Obligatory Scottish Twitter interlude:
Freaks me out that u never know what anyone’s actual up to, ur neighbour could be sitting in their gaff the now munching an onion like an apple and ur none the wiser
— Marco (@marcoc0nte) July 14, 2020
This is a man with City Slickers on DVD.
Brass tacks. Marcus Thompson II on the NBA bubble:
How long will a pound last?
There are 453.5 grams in a pound. How many, um, sessions can you get out of that? Heavy smokers pack a blunt with about two grams per. So that’s about 227 blunts.
Six of the 22 teams will be in the bubble a maximum of 40 days. Of the remaining 16, half will be going home no later than 53 days in. Four could stay for up to 67 days maximum. The teams in the NBA Finals could end up being there a maximum of 82 days.
For players who are eliminated first, a pound of weed is more than enough. But for players on teams that make the conference finals, or the NBA Finals, that’s getting down to about two blunts a day. That might be cutting it close.
Apparently bongs are much more efficient.
The irrepressible. Meanwhile, Moe Wagner on the NBA bubble:
Moe Wagner called the bubble “basketball paradise.”
— Fred Katz (@FredKatz) July 14, 2020
Quote: “I actually really enjoy it. It kinda reminds me of the national team stuff when I was young on steroids…I sent the video of the facilities to a coach at home, and he said it’s like basketball paradise. And it is."
That is "the national team stuff—when I was young—on steroids", not "the national team stuff, when I was young on steroids." Punctuation is key, transcribers of quotes.
The Wisconsin OL… uh… machine. I have had some interaction with OL coaches. Any at all is enough to make the, uh, fecal undercurrent running through this Athletic piece on Wisconsin's remarkable ability to develop OL unsurprising:
Michigan blew up the play, and Konz knew exactly what was coming next as he jogged to the sideline.
“It’s like scars,” Konz says. “You never forget these things.”
It was time for Konz to own up to his mistake and do something countless Badgers offensive linemen had been asked to undertake through the years, accepting the premise of a vulgar yet perfectly apt phrase for the moment. It was time for Konz to eat his metaphorical shit sandwich
Also
“Every day you walk into that film room, your butthole is puckered to less than a millimeter because you know you’re going to get your ass reamed from all the bad stuff you did,” Thomas says.
Also
“We were running the ball over them and doing whatever we wanted,” Deiter says. “It felt like they were like, ‘Ah, get me out of here. I don’t really want to get deuced again by these guys.’”
I suppose there might be an innocent explanation for the last one but no, there is not, this is definitely a Wisconsin offensive lineman roleplaying as an opposing DL who is being repeatedly pooped on.
There are many paragraphs about other stuff that are also interesting.
Etc.: MAC schools aren't putting out any COVID data, which is a one-sentence explanation of why it makes sense to only play conference games even if some of them are in New Jersey. SEC having issues as it stumbles towards football. Jett Howard interviewed at length. Sports writers are caught between a rock and a hard place. How Kobe Bufkin landed in Ann Arbor.
You're right; I neglected to consider the effect of the testing backlog. Mea culpa.
That doesn't explain why the earlier mask ordinance didn't do anything, but that was also from a much lower starting point. I agree, the results in a week will be more compelling -- although unfortunately they're bound to be conflated with any results from closing the bars again, which happened around June 28. :( So if the trend stays the same, then neither helped, but if it drops, then we're left to try to decide which was more responsible.
I replied to several of them the last time they were posted; I didn't care to do it again. My favorite was the study that suggested that masks are so effect that the virus is afraid of the ordinance and actually starts trending downwards before the rule even takes effect (as you correctly point out, you need to wait quite a few days before any trend should be evident). (One study showed a 0.9% decline 1-5 days after the ordinance was put in place, which could only mean that the virus was already trending downward before the rule).
It most certainly "can be stopped". We have proof that it can be stopped in densely populated, evolved economic countries like South Korea and New Zealand, and it isn't fucking rocket science. What you need is:
a coherent, and comprehensive national response backed by science, not politics
a citizenship that is willing to take the advice and guidelines from the medical community seriously
a strict 8-12 week hiatus on non-essential travel and congregation
We as a country have literally half-assed and bumbled our way through each one of these components so now we have to deal with those consequences. More people will subsequently die, and we will not be able to enjoy trivial things like sports and entertainment for what appears to be the balance of the year.
I get it, it's not convenient, it's not easy, it sucks. People will lose their jobs, that can be excruciatingly painful for some families in the short-term. It pales in comparison to losing a sister, or a father or a friend.
COVID left most nations on Earth faced with some stark decisions and realities. The nations that successfully isolated the virus and have virtually eradicated the spread acted immediately, followed the science and their citizens did their part and aligned the effort. We effectively managed the crisis in the completely opposite manner, and now August is trending to be the worst month on record in terms of spread - 6 months after we new the virus was on the continent. It cannot be overstated how badly we have managed this crisis. We're a God Damn mess right now.
You are not being Tread on, you are not being oppressed, your "civil liberties" are not being infringed upon, you're being asked to do your part to support the people of your country. Please for the love of God, wear a fucking mask.
You are not being Tread on
I am.
you are not being oppressed,
I am.
your "civil liberties" are not being infringed upon
They are, and it's tragic that Americans are now using sarcasm quotes to denigrate a founding principle of this country.
Please for the love of God, wear a fucking mask.
I will not. But I'm not going out anywhere, either. Staying home is a lot more effective than wearing magic pieces of underwear in front of the face.
However, now that people have gotten the idea that masks are magic, they're resuming all of the same activities that were happening pre-COVID, and infection rates are rising, just as we all knew that they would -- before the flatten the curve crowd panicked and moved the goalposts when we actually did flatten it.
The goal of the shutdowns was to buy enough time for the hospitals to prepare. It sort of worked -- the curve flattened -- but it wasn't enough. Again, this is what I expected -- as long as you locked people in their home, the curve would flatten, but since we didn't use martial law to do it, and the cases never went to zero, there was never going to be a safe time to reopen.
Both Democrats and Republicans have rolled back re-opening plans. This isn't a left vs. right thing, and it's not a mask vs. no-mask thing. This is just how viruses operate.
Just so we’re clear, nobody is asking you to wear a mask at home. If you’re not going out anywhere, what in God’s holy name are you blathering about?
i'm surprised you don't demand the liberation of oppressed sweaty groins of individuals from being tread on during the hot humid summers.
I can't go anywhere, because I refuse to wear a mask. Ergo, the "blathering."
You are not being Tread on
I am.
you are not being oppressed,
I am.
No. You. Are. Not. The fact that you believe you are speaks to your privilege, because you don't understand what real oppression looks and feels like. If you elect to stay in your house as opposed to spending any time in public, that is entirely your prerogative. No one is demanding you sit in the house with a mask on.
Civil liberties are a pillar to our society and should be taken very seriously as such. The sarcasm quotes are intended to point out that it is laughable to make the stake that wearing a mask to keep people safe from unknowingly infected individuals and slow the spread of this virus is somehow infringing on your constitutional rights is a fucking joke.
You have to wear shoes and a shirt at the grocery store or a restaurant, correct? Is that an infringement on your civil liberties as well? It is absolutely nonsensical to proclaim the government is oppressing you because they are trying to keep you and other American's safe and healthy in the midst of a global health crisis the likes we have not seen in over a century.
If you can show me one example of a country that eradicated this virus with their entire population walking around mask free, then by all means educate me. Until then, please do stay in your house if you refuse to wear a mask in public.
See, this is the problem, though. You don't get to decide which of my rights are important and which aren't. You and I are likely to disagree on which are more important. The right to smile is extremely important to me: in fact, it's protected speech, as these mask rules affect not only the 14th amendment (due process) but also the 1st.
You're willing to give it up; I'm not. I suspect that there are other rights that you might consider very important which I do not. I don't get to decide to take those away from you, either. And I don't need to justify them, either: they're rights, and the government does not have permission to abridge them except under certain carefully limited circumstances.
The power grabs that various executive branches have been on is sickening -- and it's also not a right vs left problem. I wrote to my city councilwoman today to complain about the latest rule, and I was told that the council had no authority to overrule the emergency order. But that's specifically why we have a council, instead of just electing an executive. This is happening at city, state, and federal levels: the structure of government is being torn down and replaced with executive fiat, in the name of speed and efficiency. But it's been four months since COVID-19 was declared an emergency. Has there really not been time to get new laws passed? If these mask ordinances are so important, let's let the city / county / state / federal legislative branches act: at least then we get a range of opinions (and a range of people who have to face reelection).
One year ago, if you had walked into the grocery store, said that you had an immunodeficiency and asked everyone, politely, to wear a mask for your safety, you'd probably have gotten four people to comply in your presence, and about 50 rude stares. Now, you're doing the exact same thing, writ large, and we're all supposed to be OK with it.
I've got one: condom usage prevents the transmission of many serious diseases, including some which can be transmitted by people with extremely mild symptoms and who therefore may not know that they're infected. Thus, I suggest a mandatory condom law: all sexual activity, of any kind, must take place with approved precautions against disease, except where required for procreation (after obtaining an applicable government license specifying the persons involved and the duration of permission, of course).
I assume you're on board: after all, it would be ridiculous to claim that the government is oppressing you by trying to keep you safe, right? Surely your rights are outweighed by the public good?
I counter that trying to keep someone safe is an extremely pernicious form of oppression that many people overlook. I have the right to decide how much risk I'm willing to take, not the state. The entire 'nanny state' is built on oppressing people for their own good. It's still oppression.
I’m sorry the education system in this country clearly failed you.
Us. It failed us all, by creating so many people who think like "J".
It's all people infringing on your civil liberties, rights, and freedom, huh? If that's the most important thing then I can safely assume you're voting for people that support the rights of women and LGBTQ folks. You're not? Oh, right. It's all about you not liberty.
Go back to 4chan.
The fact you can literally FORCE someone to behave the way you want them to is tyranny. All the Karens of the world are having a great time now, and there are plenty on this board.
Is a restriction from shitting wherever you want an unreasonable infringement on your rights? Is being required to wear clothes an unreasonable infringement on your rights?
Cases have not gone to zero in many other countries, they’ve managed to reopen.
oh, for fuck's sake, nobody is infringing on your fucking civil liberties.
Sweden never locked down and their covid deaths are now approaching zero.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-cases-deaths-fall-no…
There is no science supporting lockdowns or masks.
Lets get on with our lives.
Not sure I would characterize New Zealand as either "densely populated" or an "evolved economy" - which I think you mean fully industrialized economy?
South Korea, yes.
Wearing a mask does make a difference as many studies have shown, including this latest one in which 2 symptomatic stylists that were wearing a mask did not infect any of their customers.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e2.htm
We choose to wear a mask not because our government tells us to, but because it is the right thing to do for your community and your country. If that means wearing a mask in public for the next year, or 2, or 5, then so be it.
Well, if you amend the mask order to symptomatic people, I might have more sympathy for it. (But, uh, that person probably shouldn't be working). Even then, it's going to be tricky: I have allergies, so sometimes I have to blow my nose; that doesn't mean I'm infected with anything contagious.
Regardless, that makes a heck of a lot more sense than this "to hell with due process" approach of forcing people to wear a mask because they're breathing and are thus probably lethal. One-size-fits-all doesn't fit anybody.
Asymptomatic spread.
Nothing you've written acknowledges the key differentiating factor in COVID-19.
Asymptomatic spread is why everyone needs to wear a mask when anywhere near anyone else. It's a civic responsibility - which is inextricably linked to civil rights. That's America' foundational strength.
"We must all hang together, or most assuredly we will all hang separately."
Just amend this to include: asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread. I think the latter actually accounts for a more significant proportion of spread. This is why wearing a mask must be for everyone, not just those who are symptomatic.
Wtf does due process have to do with anything? You and your Ilk are just flat out stupid. Do you have the same feelings towards seatbelts or “no shirt, no shoes, no service” regulations? How about mandatory hand washing signs for employees at restaurants? God you’re so dumb. As a society we live with basic government regulations daily and yet a gd cloth mask is beyond the pale for some people.
Jesus. That is not how it works.
Our testing is substandard in too many instances. 7 day plus wait times for results destroys the purpose of the testing for society: the ability to effectively isolate and contact trace without further spread.
Plus when the testing began in relation to the introduction of the virus into the population, is a vitally important fact. Ours began very late when compared to the testing (and quality of the testing) done in the most successful countries.
Simply chest pumping over the amount of tests now happening is very superficial to the idea of solving the massive tragedy happening right now in the US.
Results are what matter ultimately.
Zero leadership by a President who has lived his life by magical thinking and continues to do so. OK when you are running a private business financed by daddy's safety net of wealth. Dangerous when hundreds of millions of people are relying on your best thinking and efforts.
The self described war time President leaves his apologists to throw out lame arguments about Federalism. Basically FDR would have been fine letting Hawaii handle it began in December 41.
I have no love for the prez, but to say our testing is substandard in too many instances is simply false. I worked many years in the diagnostic industry doing R&D. I know the markets well and the process of getting diagnostic tests to market. Overall, the U.S. is bar none the best developer of IVDs in the world. For COVID development and testing, things got a little parochial where every country kinda took it upon themselves to figure it out, with some exceptions of course. Which is fine, because there is wide range of Laboratory Defined Tests (LDT) that can be created pretty fast with some expense, but not at great volumes.
The main issue with COVID testing is not so much the technology, or specificity, but rather supply chain. Getting a result from the machine takes maybe 30 mins (depending on the machine, for example Abbott IgG antibody test on the ARCHITECT platform claims this), but it sits in line with other samples waiting for testing. There was no doubt a mad dash for testing that jammed-up the system early on. Per my colleague who started RapidRona (check them out BTW), testing times have now come down to 2 says for swab tests and 4 days for serological tests and will continue to improve.
You keep saying you are an expert on testing, yet most experts on testing disagree with you. As I pointed out below, some of the largest commercial labs are reporting times of 5 to 7 days. As this article points out, many states are seeing problems.
‘State, local and hospital officials at 13 states said they are experiencing some sort of issue with testing, and in all instances, the shortages and delays contribute to effectively limiting the number of Americans with access to coronavirus testing, which experts have long said is a first key step to stemming the spread of the virus.
“The cornerstone of our response to COVID-19 has always been about testing capacity,” said Dr. John Brownstein, chief innovation officer for the Boston Children’s Hospital and a “professor of epidemiology at the Harvard Medical School.
“Our lack of initial testing prevented early intervention,” added Brownstein, an ABC News contributor. “Our inability to ramp up testing prevented us from mitigating the impact on morbidity and mortality. And now our lack of test availability and timely diagnosis five months into the pandemic will directly contribute prolonging this first wave.””
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/13-states-now-report-coronavirus-testing-issues-echo/story?id=71698974
what aspect are you an expert in diagnostic test R&D?
platform development? downstream processing? upstream processing? CRO management? formulations? clinical trials? marketing? PR? finance? patent law?
best developer of IVDs in the world and yet....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/04/18/timeline-coronavirus-testing/?arc404=true
It's a friggin PCR test. it's a set of primers with a buffer and a polymerase. not that hard. and the CDC screwed it up by contaminating the kits like a summer undergraduate rotation student.
i think it was you who kept mentioning that the government isn't at fault for lack of a dependable test and the major reason S.Korea was able to test in large numbers was because of the private sector and not the role of the government. actually no. the S.K. government learned from their previous SARS and MERS outbreaks and prepared protocols. and the S.K. government proactively worked with private companies to develop and mass produce tests once they deemed this a threat.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/
guess what the trump admin did with the protocol they had?
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/12/fact-check-obama-left-trump-a-pandemic-response-playbook/
"not that hard"
That really shows your lack of understanding of how it works. Yep, just throw together a some primers, a buffer and RNA polymerase and...BAM! You're done!
Listen, I don't mind having a meaningful conversation about this topic, but the tenor of your post suggests that anything short of shitting on the US and/or Trump is not acceptable to you.
i know how PCR tests work.
i do research in a cancer immunology and virology dept at a cancer institution. RNA/DNA isolation from clinical samples and PCR amplification of region of interest is the bread and butter of this dept. PCR test itself is not a test unique to covid-19. it is routinely done for numerous other pathogens, not just for this virus.
so please explain to me what aspects of the PCR diagnostic test was so difficult for the US CDC to develop that caused the initial delay compared to the other nations? care to share sources like i did where MULTIPLE sources said the initial issue was contamination with the first CDC batch of tests.
malaysia, MALAYSIA, had produced primers and probes by end of Jan after chinese scientists released the genetic information of the virus. UK had developed a test by Jan. Germany had developed one in Jan which is the basis for the WHO test. those countries didn't seem to have the magnitude of issues the CDC test had. shortage problems? how is that unique to the US? other nations seemed to have adjusted to the needs. the US government had failed that.
yes the US government failed epically and that fact is shared by other EXPERTS as mentioned by blue in dc.
and again, please explain what aspect of diagnostic test development is your expertise on? you never answer that question when brought up and just repeat it as an argument from authority.
”and again, please explain what aspect of diagnostic test development is your expertise on? you never answer that question when brought up and just repeat it as an argument from authority.”
You never asked me such question before. But I worked on product development/R&D for in cancer, specifically CA15-3, CA19-9, PAP, PSA, ER/PgR. And a little in HIV. I also understand the extensive process to build an analysis machine at places like Flextronic and Janus. I also did a small rotation in sales. Lastly, I’ve spent extensive amount of time in many labs and CROs across the nation, including Quest and Covance (bought by LabCorp).
I could go on and address your other points, but it seems your mind is made up, so what’s the use? Again, I’d welcome a meaningful discussion on this, but you clearly don’t. You clearly don’t like me, so like the Blue in DC poster, I will not answer your posts going forward.
good day sir.
i asked what aspect. target ID? target validation? downstream/upstream processing? formulation? QC? patent? pricing?
everything you listed is based on antigen based testing so please correct me if i assume you are not an expert in PCR based diagnostic tests, right?
i gave you links and sources and asked you to cite sources to support your claim and all you say is 'i could, but nah i am the expert and i know people'.
I know I said I wouldn’t reply to you again, but your post is so steeped in ignorance, I couldn’t help myself (and I’ve had a couple happy hour drinks).
I have plenty of experience in RNA/PCR-based testing development with HIV. And yes, the majority of my experience is with antibody/antigen testing, but that falls within the realm of the IgG antibody testing done with COVID. Since the majority of cases have little to no symptoms, PCR based tests (while valuable in certain scenarios) will diminish in value, where IgG antibody tests will be more prevalent.
still no answer to what your expertise is in R&D? target ID? validation? formulation? platform? upstream downstream? marketing? patent? pricing?
i have not asked about the antibody tests. i keep asking about the initial CDC PCR test. so i ask again, please explain to me which aspects of the PCR diagnostic test was so difficult for the US CDC to develop that caused the initial delay compared to the other nations?
Again, your ignorance is showing.
Expertise in R&D: I've already stated that several times in previous posts. Please re-read.
Target ID: I don't know what you mean by this, but I suspect you are talking about disease, and again, things I've already stated in previous posts (i.e. HIV, CA15-3, etc.)
Validation: Yep, done my fair share of V/V work. And I have my RAC to back it up.
Formulation: that's a term most associated with drug development, not diagnostics
Platform: Axsym, ImX, ARCHITECT, Prism, M2000
Upstream downstream: Da faq does this mean? If you are talking supply chain, then yes, lots of experience here from antibody vendors (i.e. Fujirebio, etc) to diagnostic labs (again, something I've already mentioned).
Marketing: beyond my sales rotation, nothing much in marketing. Due to strict FDA and FCC regulations, marketing for diagnostics was controlled by medical affairs which was mostly clinically focused folks like MDs, PhDs. But overall, marketing is not a big function in the diagnostic space even when considering COVID.
Patent: In the diagnostic field, I got nothing. You got me there! This has a lot to so with the somewhat recent shift to first-to-file vs first-to-invent. But I do have 5 patents with my name on it in the orthopedic field FWIW.
Pricing: Good amount of experience here in my sales rotation. Most times it was a razor/razor blade model where we'd give the machine away for free and get nice service and reagent contracts.
With regards to the CDC, beyond us providing HIV tests to them, I haven't dealt much with them. Rereading some of your posts, you seem fixated on the CDC, but they are not the main source of testing in the US, the private sector is. If the CDC screwed up like you said, then that sucks. I'm more in-tune with the private sector and they are kicking ass now.
my fixation is trying to understand why US lacked a working test when many other nations had one in Jan/Feb 2020.
since it is, as you emphasized, not something easy like 'just throw together a some primers, a buffer and RNA polymerase and...BAM! You're done!', based on your vast experiences in the field, please explain to me what aspect of the covid-19 PCR based test is difficult to develop that caused the CDC's initial tests to be problematic in Jan of 2020 and cause the delay of testing when other nations did not have the same issues during the same period?
What?! We had testing as early January. According to your best friend, the CDC, we got our first confirmed in the US in January (see link below). How do you think they figured out someone had COVID? By osmosis? No, they had testing for it back then.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0516_article
Granted, it was probably an LDT which are simple diagnostic tests used in a lab that can circumvent FDA requirements but have little use in high volume situations.
If you have to serve the greater needs of the market in high throughput situations (like COVID) then you will need a machine/analyzer that can handle a lot of samples at once, like the ARCHITECT machine. To do so requires an FDA 510(k) clearance for each type of test. This process can be long and arduous whether it’s an RNA or antibody test. If you think about these large machines that handle a lot of samples, you have to prove to the FDA it will give you accurate results. You have human factor testing, 60601 testing, biocompatible testing, etc. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Now the FDA was giving out EUAs like candy to expedite things, so getting clearance was much easier.
I have admitted several times in the past that the US absolutely stumbled out of the gate with regards to COVID testing, but we caught up good thanks to the private sector, and the stats prove it out.
Candidly, I think you need to give up your hate for the CDC on this matter. I’m sure there’s lots to complain about regarding the CDC, but I’d be surprised if they even have 1% of the testing capabilities for the US market. When it comes to diagnostics, the CDC are primarily a research organization that can, at times, provide some decent information, but don’t build out large scale capabilities to serve the US. The private sector does that, and does that well. You can look at the relationship with the CDC and Abbott with HIV as an example.
Lastly, check out some of the recent acquisitions of molecular diagnostic companies. They are getting 100s of millions of $$$. If it was as easy as you suggest to whip up an MdX test, I recommend that you do so. You could be a multi-millionaire in no time!
I never disputed CDC had a test Jan 2020. I even mentioned it had one in Jan/Feb albeit a problematic one in previous posts.
My WHOLE point was CONSISTENTLY, CDC's initial test did not work due to contamination, not due to any developmental difficulty as you claimed. I provided links with timelines to support that.
You kept opining that the reason for the initial delay was in the difficulty in developing it which I countered saying 'it's a friggin PCR test, not that hard to make'. Again I provided links supporting the delay was not due to the difficulty in developing the test but getting the buffers amateurishly contaminated like a 'undergraduate summer rotation student'. I even listed the other nations that did have proper working ones including MALAYSIA.
Regarding material, paperwork and analyzer shortages you mentioned I pointed out that is not a unique issue for the US and other nations had managed to adjust to needs far better than the US. Again, fault of US government's inability to properly respond, opinions which is shared by other experts.
You keep mentioning the private sector, which according to you had no profitable incentive to develop one during the early days. That's were CDC and the government comes in with a working protocol. Look at S.Korea which you keep saying the S.Korea government had no significant role. I provided links showing you are wrong. The S.Korea government anticipated and accordingly worked with the private sector to be ready. The US gov did not. I didn't once even give an opinion about the US IVD private sector.
You also ask why I keep shitting on the current government and admin regarding the pandemic response with no rational reason and I provided a link to how the current admin ignored the protocol handed to them specifically for a pandemic like this and how they were ineffective compared to other nations in the initial response.
all these links from experts in the field pointing to the ineffective and outright mishandling of the situation by the government and you refute it all anecdotally with 'i am an expert in IVD R&D' and 'i know someone' and won't even provide sources when asked for.
i should just hang this next time instead.
![citation needed] | Know Your Meme](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/001/865/wikipedian_protester.jpg){kind=icon}
FDR made blunder after blunder. He is the one who put the Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor, an ideal spot for an aerial attack with how it is shaped. He did so against the advice of Admiral Paul O. Richardson, the Pacific Fleet CINC. It was up until May 1940 in San Diego. A catastrophic blunder that is minimized in tellings of the attack.
Then there is the daylight raids on German cities, the lack of blackouts on coastal cities leading to the 2nd Happy Time for U-Boats(400 sunk ships and 6600 deaths), Slapton Sands...people don’t realize how utterly incompetent the US was at times during WW2. Like mindbogglingly incompetent.
You'll note the outbreak is ongoing and getting worse here. France had 1100 cases nationwide today. And it was a bad day for them.
Denialists have managed to be wrong at every step, and yet remain confident that they're secretly the ones who know what's actually happening.
Mexico's president (AMLO) deserves special mention here. AMLO has claimed that poor people are immune to the virus and believes that a special amulet gives him immunity as well.
In an unrelated note Mexico now has the fourth-most reported Covid deaths in the world (and many believe this is still a drastic undercount, as they don't test very much).
There are a lot of . . . not-smart people running countries in this hemisphere.
To be fair there are a lot of very dumb people running countries everywhere.
Worldometer has us 23rd in testing per capita. That doesn't feel like one of the best to me.
As of about a month ago, we were No. 2 in the world, with No. 1 being a small island country I can't remember. Many countries have caught up on a per capita basis and some of the data gets noisy because it doesn't take much for a small populace country to look good on a per capita basis. The US has done a good job ramping up tests and improving times. On an absolute basis we are No.2 in the world (behind China of course).
Not sure where you are getting your info from but our testing times are getting worse, not better.
“A dramatic slowdown in testing turnaround times is undermining the U.S. response to the coronavirus, rendering tools like contact tracing almost useless in some instances.
Quest Diagnostics, one of the main companies doing coronavirus testing, said Monday that “soaring demand” due to the surge in cases across the South and Southwest had pushed back their average turnaround time for getting results of a coronavirus test to at least seven days for all but the highest priority patients.
LabCorp, another major testing company, said last week that its turnaround times were only slightly better, at four to six days, because of “significant increases in testing demand and constraints in the availability of supplies and equipment.”‘
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/507363-long-waits-for-test-results-spark-new-covid-19-fears
how are times improving?
I have heard first hand accounts waiting for more than a week. Meanwhile in S.Korea it takes hours for results.
Our neighborhood had a special ed program staff tested and was told he/she was negative, then have a doctor call and tell the staff, oh actually you're positive ooops.
whole programs shut down and multiple kids and their families in quarantine.
but hey, we're No. 2!!
Well, since we can use anecdotal data.
Early on, I got my serological test results in 7 days and it was because Quest had a major backlog. I took an RNA test a couple weeks ago and got the results within 24 hours. Several of my friends recently took the serological test and got the results in 3 days
I know a lot of people in the Dx/Mdx business and talk to them a lot, especially now. I know its not an academic approach, but from they are telling me things are getting better with regards to lead times. You can believe me if you want, but sounds like you won't.
Lastly, the false negative in your neighborhood special ed program could be for many reasons: the person taking the sample, the test itself, etc. Its no doubt not ideal, but it happens all over the world and with tests as simple and understood as flu tests.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/diagnosis/rapidlab.htm
ok, care to then respond to blue in dc's link refuting your anecdotal claims?
or do you have nothing beyond your 'i worked in diagnostic R&D' and 'i know people' argument from authority?
Each of the European countries have much higher population densities than the U.S. and their average age is higher. Both of these factors significantly impact mortality rates.
I somewhat agree with you, but would add one nuance: I would say that population densities have more impact on infection rates than deaths. Things like hospital utilization rates, access to medical technology, etc have more impact on the outcome (ie death or not) of getting COVID.
For example, California has 2.5 times the population density of the UK, yet has 1/4 of the deaths. And on the opposite end of the spectrum, New York State has 4 times the population density as the UK and has 2.5 the deaths as UK.
Population density is no doubt a big part of the equation, but alone doesn’t paint the whole picture (not saying that’s what you are claiming)
The per capita deaths number is a bit misleading because all those other countries have significantly reduced their case incidents while the US seems to, at best, be chugging along at a high clip. Countries like Russia, Iran, Mexico, and Brazil have, to varying degrees, somewhat throne their hands up as cases have increased while the US has been a bit more proactive so that's a positive, but America saw what was happening in places like Italy and Spain and didn't really do anything to prepare itself, then mucked through a half-ass shutdown and failed to tamp down the outbreak nationally. So yes, America isn't the worst globally in terms of COVID-19 response but, I mean, it's pretty sad that we're all sort of grading on a curve.
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