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The State Of Things: Ambiguous Comment Count

Brian August 11th, 2020 at 12:51 PM

Twitter is a disaster zone of takes I can only stare at. Replies appear unbidden in the tweet window and are deleted. Chaos reigns. It's C+1, the day after Cancellation Day.

Or maybe not? The Big Ten put out a statement saying that no vote had actually been held, and that there is a vote today that may result in cancellation, delay, or nothing at all. As of 9 PM last night Ralph Russo of the AP says it's "more delay than cancel"; Adam Rittenberg said he "can't remember a day where the league seemed more divided." Pete Thamel reports that spring just got broached:

That makes it seem like that Dan Patrick report of a 12-2 vote with only Iowa and Nebraska opposed is not necessarily reflective of the desires of all the institutions and may have just been a straw poll of medical officials or beagles found lying around a bus stop.

It sounds like there's some chance everyone jumped the gun.

[After THE JUMP: not a very large chance though]

On the other hand, Ross Dellinger is reporting from the still-twitching corpse of Sports Illustrated that the a major concern is COVID-19 leaving players with heart issues:

“That’s what people aren’t getting,” says a high-ranking MAC administrator with knowledge of the presidents’ call Saturday. “It’s pulmonary, cardiac issues.” …

He acknowledges that the cases in athletes with COVID-related heart impacts are very small. Among professional, college and youth league athletes, he’s seen no more than a dozen in the US. However, there are likely many more. Some go undetected or have not been brought to his attention. Doctors aren’t exactly sure how common the condition is. Some have publicly stated that recovered COVID-19 patients have shown as much as a 50% impact on their heart, but with striking degrees in severity.

A recent German study released in July revealed heart inflammation in 60 of 100 recovered virus patients. That number included patients who were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic.

A college team doctor told Sports Illustrated on Saturday that he’s aware of roughly 10 COVID-related heart impacts in all of college football, many or all of them from mildly symptomatic players. While the number is a fraction of the total population, the potential consequences of heart injury are grievous. Myocarditis symptoms include chest pain, abnormal heartbeat, shortness of breath and, in the most serious case, sudden death. Already, myocarditis represents roughly 2-5% of all sudden death cases in American sports.

There is a tendency to play up the potential consequences of coronavirus for clicks but this is an internal discussion amongst a bunch of people who really do not want to cancel football if they don't have to leaking into the wild. Serious health issues have already hit a couple of college football players: Arizona receiver Jaden Mitchell and LSU DE Travezz Moore both reported severe weight loss from their weeks-long battle against the disease, and Indiana OL Brady Feeney ended up in the ER. Boston Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is going to miss the MLB season, such as it is, after a myocarditis diagnosis.

The Mountain West has announced a postponement, joining the MAC. As of a couple hours ago Jon Wilner tweeted that a source indicate the Pac-12 was "on track to cancel" no matter what the Big 10 did.

On the other side of things, a groundswell of hashtag activism from coaches and players who want to soldier on despite the adverse circumstances. Scott Frost is all but threatening to take Nebraska on a barnstorming tour of state fairgrounds. A tomato with Larry Bird's face has been found. I hate it here.

Comments

robpollard

August 11th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^

Just now they "began" talking about the spring?

Look, I understand this is a difficult decision, but how can they decide what to do in the fall without an understanding of what they think comes next? For budget purposes, if nothing else? Has anyone reached out to ESPN and said, "If we ask you to broadcast UM-OSU and Penn State-Iowa in April, how much would you pay us? Does it make a difference if Justin Fields and Nico Collins aren't playing?"

I don't see how spring football can work for the Power 5 considering how many Day 1 and Day 2 NFL draft picks they have along with the fact that it would require certain players to play about 25 games in the space of 9 months, but maybe I'm missing something.

If they decide to cancel this fall, OK -- but it should only be done after they have fully examined all the options for fall along with a detailed plan of how the decision to cancel keeps players & the campus community safe (e.g., will players still be tested regularly? Doubtful, but maybe I'm wrong) and, just as importantly, have a reasonable plan (understanding that can change based on events) for what comes next.

WorldwideTJRob

August 11th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^

Look I think when ppl here spring football, they assume that it will be from March-May. However, some reports have it going from Jan-March. The NFL draft is not until April, and some were speculating the other day that if could be pushed back as far as June to accommodate college football.

1VaBlue1

August 11th, 2020 at 2:36 PM ^

Jan-Mar football...  Doubt it.  Let's analyze!  

First, Michigan Stadium - a place where we would LOVE to see Alabama visit in January - does not have a heated field, so it'll be frozen solid.  That means none of the slim padding the players fall on regularly.  That will turn into more injuries, probably more severe injuries, than we would otherwise normally see.  Would probably see some frost bite, because manly-men don't wear gloves and OL will be in short sleeves.  Probably more hoodies under uniforms in the wimpy secondaries, though, so balance?  Alabama isn't coming here in Jan (or any other time, for that matter).  I'm sure there are other reasons it wouldn't work.

But despite all that, I'd still LOVE to see Bama come north in January!

 

LKLIII

August 11th, 2020 at 3:44 PM ^

*Maybe* the NCAA, conference commissioners, university presidents, Athletic Directors, and coaching staffs were all quietly gaming out various scenarios for months & eliminated a bunch of possibilities after thoughtful discussion back in April & May, but....

....it sure doesn't seem like it to me. From the outside looking in, it seems like the vast majority of the stake-holders just sat around for a few months hoping someody else would map everything out, or that somehow this whole thing wouldn't be a big problem. And now that it's the 11th hour, they're all running around trying to come up with various solutions in an ad hoc manner.

If this true, I am utterly baffled by this behavior.  These people are collectively involved in a BILLION dollar industry. Some of them have get paid several million dollars per year to oversee their league/conference/school/team. Many of the players/parents have hopes of potentially making generational wealth in the future, but much of that hinges on the ability to stay health and to also showcase their talents on a large media platform like nationally televised Power 5 match-ups.

I understand being lead-footed in maybe March when the Pandemic was getting off the ground. I even understand the conferences & schools maybe being a bit lead-footed in April when it became clear the NCAA wasn't going to take any major leadership role in issuing a bunch of comprehensive guidelines or policies.  But once late April & May rolled around, why in the HELL didn't conference commissioners (or school presidents, ADs, & football coaching staffs) start to come up with a bunch of contingency plans?

I know that Pandemics are unpredictable, but at the very least they could have gamed out the most likely 5-6 scenarios & set up plans for each one. Then, as events unfolded, focus on the top 2-3 scenarios looking the most likely. 

For example:

  • I'm shocked the conferences didn't scrap the non-conference schedules immediately & stand-up some 3rd party entity to do the testing & reporting of COVID tests to the conference administrations so they could create more consistent COVID saftey standards within the conferences back in May/June.
     
  • I'm shocked that the players/parents didn't roll out their "concerned citizens" groups in March or April asking the excellent questions they started asking in July.
     
  • I'm shocked that many university presidents, ADs, and football staffs didn't seem to have internal discussions back in April & May to get memorandums of understanding between themselves about what the school would do RE: football depending on what 4-5 likely scenarios developed by July or August. At least that way, each school would be able to act as one unit when late-breaking events happened just before the season.
     
  • I'm shocked that the schools or the conference commissioners themselves didn't game out what happens if conference votes became split & some teams didn't want to participate but some did. I'm actually surprised the NCAA or individual powerhouse schools didn't explore the legal & regulatory possiblity of setting up 1-2 season temporary "unity conferences" to accomodate schools that wanted to play but became "athletically homeless" if their own conferences decided not to have a season.  For example, the most hard-core 3-4 programs in the Pac 12 & Big Ten could decide to suspend their Pac 12 or Big Ten membership for the year & join the "Resolute Conference" (or whatever) for a single season in the event their own conferenced refused to schedule/host games. You'd think they could do that in May/June and also negotiate some Letter of Intent for some quicky & dirty media rights agreement for any "unity conference" games, but only move forward with it if the permanent conferences in fact decided to not host a season in the fall.

It just seems like not ALL, but A LOT of people with any clout stood around and were waiting for somebody else to be the primary mover & decision-maker in many of these things.  Which tells me many of these entities either:
 

  1. Are just very poor planners in terms of risk management & anticipating future challenges; or
     
  2. Intentionally let things drift along in an unfocused fashion because they thought it would give them some type of strategic advantage in the end.

 

Just totally blows me away.  Yes, the Pandemic is/was a fluid situaiton. But when you're running a billion-dollar industry that significantly influences tens of thousands of lives, the answer isn't to do very little planning until the very end, it's to plan MORE in order to accomodate the larger variety of scenarios that might unfold.  

Maybe they did a ton of this war-gaming & hypothetical scenario planning back in April & May and we just didn't hear about it. But by the way this stuff is playing out in the media, it sure feels like a bunch of this stuff just wasn't discussed in any comprehensive manner ahead of time.

dragonchild

August 12th, 2020 at 9:41 AM ^

Um, these people aren't in charge because they have leadership qualities.  It's because they're loyal to the racket.  This is more or less what I expected from these people.  Not the decision, but all the procrastination and dysfunction.

Get a better feel for why people are in the positions they are, and their incompetence becomes much easier to understand.

Cdat33

August 11th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^

I don't believe Dan Patrick would have said something without properly vetting it. I just can't buy that scenario.

What seems more plausible is that it got out, the big 10 panicked, and quickly went into damage control PR mode. 

robpollard

August 11th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^

Nah, more likely is the "12-2" vote is technically correct (e.g., it was athletic directors or medical advisers), but did not involve the actual school Presidents, who are the only ones that matter.

It could have even been like what you often do at the beginning of a discussion in a jury room, "Ok, let's see where we are at -- how many of you think Guilty and how many of you think Not Guilty?" but that isn't the final vote. You're just getting the lay of the land to determine what work you need to do to come to a final decision.
 

LKLIII

August 11th, 2020 at 4:00 PM ^

Don't want to speak for the other poster, but if it was some type of straw-poll or nonbinding vote by medical directors, I'm still utterly surprised that Dan Patrick or his producers wouldn't also vet the hell out of that too.  They described a "12-2" vote & made it sound like there weren't any caveats to that.

Which means either:

  1. Dan Patrick's team got sloppy & didn't vet the hell out of that news; or
     
  2. They did vet it, it was a 12-2 binding vote, the conference saw all the blowback they were getting while drafting up the "announcement rollout" plan with their PR department, and decided to walk it back by lying and making Dan Patrick's team look like a bunch of schmucks who don't vet their work.

 

matty blue

August 11th, 2020 at 1:33 PM ^

this, right here, is why the "it only kills .001% of patients" and "these are healthy young people" nitwits are wrong, and loud wrong.  those notions ignore the fact that even people who "completely" recover are left with longer-term pulmonary issues.  even if those "issues" are the tiniest reduction in lung capacity (to say nothing of myocarditis), when you're talking about great athletes that can be the difference between elite and a notch below elite.

would you want to take that chance?  i wouldn't.  and i wouldn't ask the players to do it, either.

ColeIsCorky

August 11th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^

I understand your argument there, but what are the risks for student athletes to have that happen to them anyway? Its not like they have 0% chance of getting covid if they don't play. You might even argue that most teams would hold their athletes to a much higher protection "bubble" if the season was going on than if the season was canceled, so their risks might actually be lower potentially (at least in Michigan's case from the words Jim used).

I think there would need to be some standard compliance as far as what student athletes would need to adhere to if they wish to play and stay active. That is much harder to manage across the board amongst all teams, especially where corruption is already an issue, but I think it's doable. And there would need to be consequences to teams who fail to adhere to those standards.

Yes, it's challenging, but the threat exists regardless. 

ricosuave

August 11th, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^

I dunno.  Spring surge likely and a variant could very well emerge.  Reinvent football with technology to aid in predictive tackling, etc.  

VAWolverine

August 11th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^

I remember a player wearing #9 breaking his collarbone vs. OSU in November 1973. The game ended in a 10-10 tie.

The next day Big 10 AD's voted on who to send to the Rose Bowl on January 1, 1974 since M and OSU were conference co-champs.

As I recall the vote didn't go our way and our coach was pissed.

That is my last recollection of the conference being divided. 

I'd rather deal with a virus than six crooked ADs.

MGoStrength

August 11th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^

Such weird times.  It may not happen today, but I just don't see how schools put kids knowingly at risk.  I know CTE, spinal injuries, ACLs, etc.  But, this is different.  There is no hiding from this.  It's not a freak injury nor something that crops up 20 years from now.  It just seems too risky despite the desire of fans, players, & coaches to want a season.  It just seems inevitable they don't play until they have a better handle on Covid, it's risks, and how effectively it can be managed when teams start traveling & playing games.

bronxblue

August 11th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^

My assumption was that the 12-2 vote was some form of a straw poll and it got out prematurely.  Now, the fact anyone in that room assumed a vote to cancel a season WOULDN'T get out is troubling, but that's another discussion.  So then a bunch of people who, frankly, aren't completely unbiased in their desire to see football this season (looking directly into the pulsating eyes of Scott Frost, but also side-eyeing guys like Harbaugh, Day, and Franklin) got mad and started yelling because they probably thought they'd at least be consulted (for both good and bad reasons).  

The health risks from this disease are real beyond those who die from it; I've got family who worked on COVID-19 floors in multiple hospitals in multiple states and ALL of them say that recovery isn't immediate for everyone and they've seen people come back in with other issues that, at the bare minimum, were exasperated by their earlier bouts with the disease.  And these weren't all 80-year-olds; a decent chunk were 30-40 somethings with few health issues beforehand.

At this point I think some part of CFB will try to have a season this year; there simply is too much money at stake and Frost is mostly guilty of saying the quiet part loud on that front.  But it's going to be a shitshow, people are going to be sick, and a bunch of people who want to be entertained for a couple of Saturdays in the fall will bemoan the "totally unexpected and sad" outcome of a bunch of college kids getting sick.

cp4three2

August 11th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^

Isn't the question whether or not playing football increases the risk of contracting the disease? 

 

Either way, I'm glad UM's president is an immunologist. 

LKLIII

August 11th, 2020 at 3:18 PM ^

This is a key metric IMO.

It isn't "Zero" vs "The risk of getting COVID if playing actual games this season." 

It's actually the marginal DIFFERENCE in risk that matters, which is admittedly much harder to determine.  For example, it could be one of the following comparisons---"The risk athletes get COVID if they play football games this season" within a whole bunch of scenarios like whether or not regular students arrive live on campus, what degree of a "bubble" does a school create for the football program, how frequently are people tested & how rapidly can they get results, isolate & do contact tracting within the program, etc.

Even when you narrow down the theoretical scenario of "risk an athlete gets COVID if they play games this year," the comparison isn't against "zero risk."  The alternative isn't all the guys living like monks hermetically sealed away from the world for a year.  They'll either live back at home for a year, or live on campus presumably among other students.  They'll likely still work out, maybe practice, & certainly attend house parties, live in/around cramped student housing, dorms, or apartment buildings, etc.

I'm not saying that they 100% SHOULD play football this season, but it's important to accurately acknowledge the pros & cons of each approach. I think a reasonable position is that these guys in some type of closely supervized living/practice situation might have a lot less COVID exposure to themselves compared to living "out in the wild" at their parent's home or living in a house/apartment/dorm on campus "playing school" like a normal student all year long, even if they're taking remote online classes.