Essentials

WHAT	Michigan at Minnesota
WHERE	Information Entropy Stadium Minneapolis, MN
WHEN	7:44 PM ET Saturday, Oct. 24
THE LINE	Michigan -3 (Vegas) Minnesota -3 (Bill C.)
TELEVISION	ABC PBP: Chris Fowler Analyst: Kirk Herbstreit Reporter: Maria Taylor
TICKETS	not this year
WEATHER	high-20s(!), cloudy, ~20% chance of snow(!!)

Overview

PJ Fleck's squad narrowly avoided some potential embarrassing losses early, found their groove midseason, and beat Auburn after late-year stumbles against Iowa and Wisconsin to finish 11-2 in 2019, tallying the most wins in program history since 1904. They ranked tenth in the final AP Poll (their highest finish since 1962) and 13th in SP+.

While the Gophers lost most of their defensive stalwarts, they return a possible first-round wide receiver, one of the steadier quarterbacks in the country, a proven bruiser at running back, and almost the entire offensive line. ESPN's Bill Connelly projects them to finish 16th in the country and win this game by three points.

Meanwhile, the Vegas line opened at Minnesota -1 and jolted over to Michigan -3 with alacrity. A six-point difference between the computers and the gambling sharps doesn't occur often. What gives?

Maybe there's an answer in Minnesota's projected depth ch--

News: #Gophers football coach PJ Fleck said Monday he knows current number of players unavailable due to #COVID19 for Saturday's game vs. Michigan, but he's clear he won't be sharing it.

"Not 65," he added.

Yet, there's limits on how much spread the U can have and still play.

— Andy Greder (@andygreder) October 19, 2020

Ah.

There are rumors flying of various starters not being available for the Gophers. This is not the case for Michigan, which as of the most recent Jim Harbaugh press conference claimed zero players are absent because of a positive Covid test, and there haven't been any rumors to the contrary.

We're not going to have a clear idea of who's taking the field for Minnesota until they, er, take the field. Welcome to week one of the 2020 Big Ten season. It's already weird.

[Hit THE JUMP for who knows, honestly]

Run Offense vs Minnesota

can Feldman Freak Boye Mafe hold up against the run? [247Sports]

While both teams have a lot of turnover up front in this matchup, Michigan should be able to move the ball on the ground. We've discussed at length how the Wolverines offensive line has ready-made replacements for their departed starters; it's not clear if the Gophers can capably fill their holes up front.

Although the Minnesota run defense performed well on a per-carry basis last year, they could be pushed off the ball in short-yardage situations, and their back seven did yeoman's work preventing long run plays. That will be tougher to pull off this year with one returning starter on the defensive line and their best playmakers departed from the back seven. They bring back just two of their top eight tacklers and only one of their top seven leaders in tackles for loss is expected to be in uniform Saturday night.

There's some meat to hold ground. Fifth-year senior Micah Dew-Treadway, the only lineman with more than one career start, is a 315-pound plugger, and he's backed up by a couple 310-pounders. Projected three-tech Keonte Schad is a 295-pound senior. Strongside end Esezi Otomewo is 6'6", 285, and in his fourth year on campus. Weakside end Boye Mafe, as will be discussed more in the next section, is a certified Feldman Freak who can power clean 400 pounds; he may weigh 265 pounds but he's stronk. Depth may be an issue, particularly on the edge, even before accounting for pandemic-related absences.

I'm not sure where the playmaking comes from outside of Mafe, however, and even in his case that's mostly projected to come from rushing the passer. DE Carter Caughlin and safety/slot Antoine Winfield Jr. were hugely impactful playmakers that offenses had to scheme around; ILB Thomas Barber was a steady run defender. The second level, in particular, is looking mighty shaky; I had the Gophers last in my linebacker rankings of teams on the schedule:

The Gophers lose nearly all of their linebacker production from a 2019 group that was merely decent statistically despite the presence of two (departed) all-conference LBs.

Now the most experienced player in the group is Raphael Sori-Marin, who had seven spot starts last year and didn't play very well. The early projected starter at WILL, Braelen Oliver, suffered an undisclosed spring practice injury that apparently is serious enough to put his season in jeopardy. That leaves a couple sophomores who were middling recruits that haven't seen the field and a couple true freshman who are higher-rated but true freshmen to fill that role.

Oliver is not expected to play this weekend. Sori-Marin is being discussed as one of the key pieces on the defense even though he struggled until flashing in the bowl game. Whoever lines up at the WILL is going to be young and inexperienced. Defensive coordinator Joe Rossi is throwing out such platitudes as "has played this sport before" for the new guys:

We've got a group that Mariano is the guy with the experience as he played all three spots last year. Josh (Aune) has played some football and then really the rest of the group are very young. They're made up of a lot of true freshmen and redshirt freshmen, but they work their butts off. I couldn't speak highly enough about how hard they work, study and prepare. And that's a testament to Mariano and that's a testament to the guys who were here last year. Because they created a culture where the guys really prepare hard.

I've been excited about what we see when the young guys and they have athleticism. They've got length for the most part and they can do some things. They have some specific skill sets that I think are exciting for people. With that being said, they're freshmen. They're redshirt freshman, and there's a process to it.

Even though Michigan has simplified their run game some since Ed Warinner came aboard, they should be able to get linebackers filling the wrong gaps on occasion—particularly if, as expected, Joe Milton is better at making reads in the run game than Shea Patterson. Add a healthy Zach Charbonnet leading arguably the team's strongest position group and the offensive braintrust may be able to ease Milton into the season without asking him to do too much through the air.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN OL vs WEEK ONE NEW STARTER STUFF. When an offensive line replaces four starters after a not being able to get in a full offseason of practice, you can expect the occasional assignment mixup and targeting problem. Michigan's backs will have room to operate so long as there aren't too many errors up front.

Pass Offense vs Minnesota

if only Benjamin St-Juste were still wearing this uniform [Bryan Fuller]

The attrition may hurt Minnesota even more against the pass. Winfield was a playmaker in a secondary otherwise bereft of them; he recorded seven of the team's 14 interceptions while no returning player had more than one. If Oliver is out, they return 5.5 sacks from their team total of 28 last season. (If he's in the lineup, move that all the way up to 8.5.) This wasn't a havoc-producing defense even last year outside of Winfield and Coughlin.

It's a good matchup for Michigan's O-line to gel as pass protectors. Most of the rush is unthreatening and Rossi isn't usually inclined to blitz a lot. The main threat is a defensive end who'll have to match up against Jalen Mayfield and Ryan Hayes, both expected to be high-level pass blockers. That threat is Boye Mafe, who made it to #5 on Bruce Feldman's annual freaks list:

Inside the Gophers’ program, they’re expecting a big year from Mafe, who had flashed some of his potential in 2019 (3.5 tackles for loss and three sacks). Very few guys his size can jump the way the 6-4, 260-pounder can. His vertical is 40½ inches. That’s 4½ inches higher than any defensive lineman at the NFL combine this year. He can touch the top of the square on a basketball backboard.

But it’s not just his vertical. All of his numbers that are head-turning. Mafe has broad jumped 10-6. He has run a 4.57 40. His 10-yard split is 1.58. His short shuttle is 4.3. He can power clean 400 pounds and squats 653. It’s just a whole lot of wow stuff.

He's explosive. He's started to translate that athleticism into production and he's getting a legit-sounding level of practice hype. But if he gives the tackles trouble, Michigan can probably chip him with a back or tight end and forget about it; it's hard to generate consistent pressure with one impact pass-rusher.

Cornerbacks Coney Durr and Benjamin St-Juste—yes, the lanky Canadian who Michigan was going to put on medical scholarship—are both solid Big Ten starters. They each broke up ten passes last year; they also combined for one pick. They're more steady than spectacular and they had some trouble against better competition last year.

The nickel position, a starting role in Minnesota's 4-2-5 alignment, is looking like a potential problem spot; the competition to replace Chris Williamson is ongoing. Justus Harris is a senior who's been mostly limited to special teams; redshirt freshman Solomon Brown was ranked outside the top 1000 as a recruit.

Jordan Howden was a better run defender than cover safety last year playing across from Winfield. Sophomore Tyler Nubin was a top-400 recruit who generated excitement in limited time last year, but Rossi wants to make it abundantly clear that expectations are not for him to be a one-for-one replacement for Winfield:

"Coach Fleck says all the time that comparisons steal your joy. We're not going to worry about Winfield. We're looking at Tyler Nubin and we're going to worry about Tyler Nubin. And Tyler Nubin is a really talented football player. Tyler Nubin has coverage ability. He has physical ability in terms of playing in the run game, and so we're very excited about his upside and his future. He's one of our hardest workers. I know you guys haven't been able see it, but take my word on it. When he practices, he's at 100% all the time.

That being said, he hasn't started a game before and he's never had to be the guy.

This is another spot where a missed assignment or two could open up some big plays. Expect Michigan to target the intermediate areas and deep seams to see if they even need to test Durr and St-Juste on the outside.

KEY MATCHUP: JOE MILTON vs THROWING IT TO THE RIGHT TEAM. I'm on board the Milton hype train but I still very much want to see him make it through a game clean before I turn up my expectations to truly ridiculous levels.

Run Defense vs Minnesota

Mohamed Ibrahim is a load to bring down [Brad Rempel/GopherSports.Com]

Pardon me for quoting myself:

When the one-two punch of Rodney Davis and Shannon Brooks was lost to injury in 2018, then-freshman Mohamed Ibrahim rescued the running game by averaging 5.7 yards on 202 carries, showing pile-moving power and the durability to be a featured back. The return of both Smith and Brooks ate into his workload last year but didn't dull his effectiveness; now those two are out of eligibility.

While losing two members of a three-headed backfield usually leaves a thin depth chart, the Gophers have a ready-made backup available in redshirt sophomore Bryce Williams, who was the #2 back in 2018 before redshirting last year when Davis and Brooks were available again. A few youngsters will push Williams for carries; PJ Fleck has a way of unearthing overlooked talent and freshman Ky Thomas, who put up absurd high school stats in Topeka, fits the bill.

As Seth mentioned in a Neck Sharpies you should very much read, Minnesota's 2019 squad may have been known for its vertical passing game but they ran at the rate of a classic MANBALL squad. There's no reason not to believe Ibrahim will be every bit the productive workhorse he was in 2018. Ibrahim will run right through arm-tackles and defensive backs; you need to get your front seven on him with force.

The Gopher line was expected to be one of the best in the conference after returning four starters from the Big Ten's #3 unit in line yards. That is no longer the expectation for Saturday. Gopher247's Ryan Burns has all but confirmed rumors that mammoth Aussie RT Daniel Faalele and 345-pound right guard Curtis Dunlap are out this weekend; Faalele may have opted out after offseason leg surgery while Dunlap, who entered and exited the transfer portal, has reportedly battled injuries in fall camp.

There's still plenty of experience along the line but being able to smash behind those two was going to be a big part of the running game. A reconfigured line likely shifrts projected starting left guard/utility lineman Blaise Andries out to right tackle and projected center Conner Olsen to left guard while inserting John Michael Schmitz, a solid fill-in starter last year, at center and either Axel Ruschmeyer or Austin Beier at right guard. While that combination should be decent, it loses a lot of oomph on the right side, and whoever lines up at right guard will be getting some of their fi.

The quarterback running game is all but absent in Minnesota's offense even though they run a lot of run-pass options. A disciplined rush should be enough to limit any scrambles.

KEY MATCHUP: THE DEFENSIVE TACKLES vs HOLD YOUR GROUND. We don't know who's playing on the Gopher O-line but said persons will be large. If the tackles can stand up to those guys without letting them reset the line of scrimmage near the linebacker level, it'd go a long way towards winning this game and be a nice step towards assuaging fears about the interior of the defense, especially if they do it without too much schemed-up help from the ends crashing inside.

Pass Defense vs Minnesota

Rashod Bateman is one of the best WRs in the country [Minnesota Athletics]

This is the section that's going to give you the heebie-jeebies. Ready or not, here we go:

From Brad Hawkins, it sounds like Vincent Gray is gonna shadow Rashod Bateman on Saturday, assuming the game is played.

— Theo Mackie (@theo_mackie) October 20, 2020

We nearly avoided this: Rashod Bateman initially opted out of the season to prepare for the NFL Draft, for which he's vying to be one of the first receivers off the board, before returning to the fold when the Big Ten announced it would play. Bateman put up spectacular numbers in 2019: 60 receptions for 1219 yards (20.3 YPC) and 11 touchdowns. While he's more than just a deep threat, he's also an extremely dangerous deep threat. I suspect Gray is going to get a little help from safeties playing over the top.

They'll be better-positioned to give that help than last year's Minnesota opponents, which also had to fend with Tyler Johnson, a fifth-round pick in this year's draft. Johnson led the team with 86 catches, 1318 yards, and 13 TDs, providing a reliable intermediate target while Bateman lifted the top off. His replacement is senior Chris Autman-Bell, a perfectly decent second option who's probably not going to get a look from the NFL. If Autman-Bell, who had some separation issues last year, is consistently getting open against the #2 corner, we're going to continue to feel alarmed about that spot; if he's not, it sets an acceptable baseline.

It's unclear who'll get targets beyond those two. It may not matter too much: 146 of Minnesota's 212 completions went to their top two receivers last year, and Fleck's offense isn't designed to feature tight ends and running backs in the passing game much at all. The two most likely players to emerge in the 2019 Autman-Bell role (28 catches) are fifth-year senior Seth Green (NTSG), who's been mostly utilized as a wildcat quarterback and caught one pass last year, and four-star true freshman Daniel Jackson.

Quarterback Tanner Morgan went from "lost a position battle to Zack Annexstad" to second-team All-Big Ten in one year that saw him rewrite the Minnesota record book. Fleck's offense allows him to make simple reads while still pushing the ball down the field. Again, read Seth's Neck Sharpies, there will be a quiz:

Minnesota's passing game is extremely simplified. The idea is to have so many RPOs that you get sick of letting their running game churn you down the field, start diving after it, and open up leverage for those dangerous receivers. ...

This is how PJ Fleck can run an extremely simple offense from lots of different looks: everything's in the same place—just getting there from different places—and the guy a defense would want to use to punish that is getting pulled in opposite directions by the RPO. If you sit back underneath anyways you're playing a man down in the run game against that big offensive line and tough running back. The ball's out too fast to blitz it to death. And the minute you stop covering those receivers with the respect they command, they're going to arrive to a spot Morgan's practiced throwing to 100,000 times. It's really effective.

We'll get a better idea whether Morgan is a really good system QB or a legit NFL prospect this year. While the overall numbers were really good, he ranked 82nd out of 130 qualifying FBS QBs in turnover-worthy plays according to PFF's season preview, and the Gopher offense funnels passes into the intermediate-to-deep middle of the field—a high-reward area that also comes with greater risk. Losing Johnson's ability to quickly separate in that area is going to lead to some tighter windows.

Adding to the turnover potential is the offensive line turmoil; this was a bad pass-blocking line before any attrition. Minnesota ranked 106th in sack rate and even worse on passing downs, per Football Outsiders. That's despite the offense's RPO-heavy design helping to get the ball out quickly and force defensive linemen to respect the run.

I haven't even mentioned a very important bit of offseason movement: Minnesota lost Fleck's longtime offensive coordinator, Kirk Ciarrocca, to the same position at Penn State. They replaced him with Mike Sanford Jr., whose track record as an OC is inscrutable because of short stopovers and a failed stint as head coach at Western Kentucky. I've waited this long to mention the change mostly because I expect Fleck and Sanford to let Ciarrocca's offense ride this year; we'll have to see if there's any impact on playcalling acumen.

So long as the cornerbacks can stay over the top of their matchups, Minnesota's passing game mostly avoids Michigan's projected weaknesses. They tend to roll the pocket away from the DTs and try to force DEs into the wrong decision; Aidan Hutchinson and Kwity Paye are tough to fool. Their throws are projected to go into the area of the field where Dax Hill, Brad Hawkins, and Cam McGrone will be roaming.

But, yeah, Bateman is terrifying.

KEY MATCHUP: VINCENT GRAY vs RASHOD BATEMAN. Don't get destroyed in this matchup and force some difficult catches. I'm not going to ask for much more. Hopefully Don Brown is able to slide some safety help Bateman's way without sacrificing too much elsewhere. If Bateman doesn't have a blowup game, Minnesota could have a hard time keeping up.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Gophers have a new Aussie punter, so I have to assume he'll be good. Their primary kicker, Michael Lantz, made 8/11 field goals as a freshman last year before getting hurt; his replacement, Brock Walker, went 3/4. College kickers and all, but it looks like their situation is solid. They'll have all new return men; we'll all get to learn who they are together on Saturday night.

Michigan is similarly strong in the kicking game. This looks like a wash unless, say, Giles Jackson breaks a return into the open field.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Rashod Bateman is hand-wavingly open 20 or more yards downfield
• Michigan's offensive line isn't creating lanes against this defensive front
• Joe Milton is throwing the ball to the wrong team

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Tanner Morgan spends most of the night running for his life
• Charbonnet and Co. repeatedly find themselves in the second level of the defense
• Milton throws a ball to the moon and a receiver catches it in stride

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Rashod Bateman, +1 for Rashod Bateman versus This Secondary In Week One, -1 for Lost The Jug Four Times Since 1967, +1 for General First Game Weirdness, -1 for That Gopher Defensive Front Looks Mighty Pliable, -1 for What Can This Year Do To Us That Hasn't Already Been Done To Us, +1 for Road Game At Night, Fans or Not, +1 for Your Author Is Confident Michigan Will Win But Couldn't Add This Section Up Correctly The First Time Around)

Desperate need to win level: 8 (Baseline: 5; +1 for It's Too Early for BPONE, +1 for We Have No Idea How Many Games Will Be Played So The Early Ones May Take On Outsized Importance, -1 for Non-Divisional Opponent, +1 for But It's Conference Season, +1 for JUG, -1 for Does Anything Really Matter, +1 for This May Be All We Have)

Loss will cause me to… recalibrate expectations for the offense and probably question why any of this is happening

Win will cause me to… JOE MILTON GO VROOOOOOOM ALL OVER SPARTY, BROTHER

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

I'll come right out and say it: I thought Minnesota was a bit of a paper tiger before the rumors of multiple absent starters began making the rounds. So long as Bateman doesn't run rampant, Michigan's defense should be able to get stops by holding the edges and getting to Morgan.

Meanwhile, I'm not sure the Gophers can stop the ground game, and Milton may be able to ease into the season with a lot of simple stuff against the inexperienced linebackers and iffy nickel corner before unleashing the bombs. We're living in a very strange time where it feels like the college football world writ large is overestimating Minnesota and underestimating Michigan. I sure hope I'm right about that.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow:

• Zach Charbonnet breaks 100 rushing yards
• Dax Hill picks off Morgan twice
• Michigan, 32-23