Essentials

WHAT	#4 Michigan (4-0) vs Iowa (3-1)
WHERE	Kinnick Stadium Iowa City, IA
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	M –10.5
TELEVISION	FOX (Johnson/Klatt)
TICKETS	From $89.
WEATHER	Sunny, high 60s 0% chance of rain nominal wind

Overview

If you thought Maryland was half a team, hoo boy you ain't seen nothing yet. Per SP+, the Terrapins are currently 14th on offense and 66th on defense. That's a big gap. Iowa? Iowa is 1st on defense and 101st on offense. And that might understate affairs. Just look at the raw numbers:

pic.twitter.com/OvdiCUHWU6

— Jon D. Miller (@jondmiller) September 25, 2022

Ye gods.

The Hawkeyes won a game 7-3 without scoring a touchdown, lost a game 10-7, and saw their defense outscore their offense in a 27-10 win over Rutgers. They also beat Nevada 27-0 in a game that lasted seven hours thanks to a lightning delay.

There's unwatchable, and then there's 2022 Iowa. On the bright side, it looks like a perfect day for football.

[After THE JUMP: half a person]

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Run Offense vs Iowa

[Patrick Barron]

So. Despite the shiny top-line number (34 carries, 211 yards, 6.1 YPC), the dam did not exactly break in last year's Iowa game. Blake Corum had the one explosive that was step one in putting the game to bed but had seven yards on his other four carries; Hassan Haskins scuffled to 3.3 YPC with a long of 11.

Where Michigan made its hay was largely on the outside. End-arounds to AJ Henning and Cornelius Johnson picked up 46 yards; McCarthy's four runs went for 5.8 a pop, and the crushing Corum run was opened up by two different Hawkeyes worrying about McCarthy's legs:

The prescription would seem clear: shift the run game more towards McCarthy's legs—and the threat of said legs. Make Iowa run sideline to sideline. (And then hit them with the double pass.) It's possible loading up a la Maryland will still work—and I'm sure we'll see Michigan run some 3TE sets out there just to see how Iowa does with that—but this is a team that goes up against a paleolithic offense in practice daily. I'd rather have Iowa defenders try to keep up on the edges, or at least be forced to account for them. This is a pass but you get the idea:

Both Jack Campbell and Seth Benson are well drilled on where to be, but they are not Devin Bush athletic when you make them move in space. Rutgers didn't test those guys in the run game outside the tackles enough for my taste, but they did expose softness in coverage:

LB #31

Campbell is a split second late to realize it and he doesn't have the athleticism to make that up.

This is because Iowa's defense has been a wall on the ground for a year and change. A slightly sproingy wall, but a wall nonetheless. The Michigan outburst was the worst performance of the year for the Hawkeyes. Opponents managed 3.2 YPC, which was second in the league to Wisconsin. The line stats from that season aren't eyepopping but they do tell a tale of a defense that leaks yards slowly and puts you in third and medium over and over: 34th in line yards allowed, 22nd in opportunity rate allowed, 93rd in stuff rate. You can have two to four yards. Good luck building a life with that.

Things are much the same this year. Iowa brought back five of their front seven and plugged in seniors at the other two spots. Iowa State and Rutgers have both struggled to do much. ISU's Jirehl Brock did manage to get to 100 yards but it took him 27 carries to get there—see those line stats above.

One personnel note: Iowa can flip between a 4-2-5 and a 4-3 but their third linebacker, Jestin Jacobs, is out for the season. That leaves little-used fifth-year senior Logan Klemp as the beefier option, so Michigan might explore if they can continue going off tackle with those two tight end packages.

KEY MATCHUP: MCCARTHY vs MYSTERIOUS DISAPPEARANCE OF ABILITY TO READ MESH POINTS THAT ARISES WHEN SOMEONE HAS BEEN NAMED MICHIGAN'S STARTING QUARTERBACK. He'll have some opportunities to rip off chunks. Just needs to take them.

Pass Offense vs Iowa

om [Patrick Barron]

JJ McCarthy's wobbles against a surprisingly in-the-area Maryland secondary have been ruthlessly scrutinized for a week, and now here's a blistering midterm exam. Iowa allowed 6.4 YPA last year with 16 touchdowns allowed against 25(!!!) interceptions. You could point to that latter as an outlier that should regress to the mean heavily… if Iowa hadn't put up 19-21 INTs in 2018, 2017, and 2015. That's four of the last six complete seasons.

This year they're off to a similar start with 4 YPA allowed and 5 picks through four games, and why not? Iowa returns seven starters from last year's defense and plugged in a second-year cornerback opposite returning Big Ten DB of the year Riley Moss who's doing just fine. That gentleman is Cooper DeJean:

That was a theme I found with DeJean, consistently great coverage. Here the ball is overthrown by Evan Simon but it helps that DeJean has pressed his receiver right off the field … With Terry Roberts out, DeJean moved from spending some time at the CASH position to being a full-time outside corner and he rocked in that role, the best Iowa DB on the field. When you combine that with the usually great Moss, this will be an intriguing test for the Michigan receivers.

The Iowa DBs are not sneaky great athletes who somehow escaped notice—Moss is generally projected as a fringe NFL draft prospect—but they are borderline NFL guys who relentlessly rep the thing Iowa has done for forever.

This is cover two, of course, but don't overplay the literal "cover two" thing too much—Iowa does provide a blizzard of different zone looks and the occasional man-to-man changeup. This is not a Don Brown situation where you can rely on one thing over and over again. McCarthy is probably going to throw into coverage more than once. What happens when that happens will go a long way towards determining the outcome.

Iowa has gathered a decent number of sacks so far this year but Alex didn't detect someone on the DL who was particularly dangerous, and found a defense that was completely happy to sit back and let The Last Of Us Rutgers Quarterbacks try to make up a three-score deficit:

They rushed more than four guys on just 13.9% of plays, the lowest number I can remember tracking. They also rushed fewer than four players on zero snaps in this game, meaning that it was a four man rush all the time.

Assuming Michigan does not spot Iowa two defensive touchdowns the Hawkeyes will be more pressed to create havoc; I expect that blitz rate to be higher if Michigan can stake itself to a lead. If Michigan struggles and gets in a rock fight McCarthy is going to be presented with seven guys looking right at him for any mistake.

KEY MATCHUP: MCCARTHY vs HOLE SHOTS. I know I just said it's not cover two all the time, but it is cover two a lot of the time, and even the best cover two teams are vulnerable to the hole shot, a ball behind the cornerback and outside of the safety. Expect Michigan to put a lot of flat frippery out there to help draw up that corner—or task Iowa LB with Corum in space—and give McCarthy the opportunity to show off his arm.

Run Defense vs Iowa

there's a Williams in there somewhere [Bryan Fuller]

And here we come to the grimly grim portion of the proceedings. Last year Tyler Goodson and a Rimington winner at center kinda-sorta kept things afloat. By this I mean they could put up lines like "52 carries for 172 yards against Illinois." They still finished 11th in the league in YPC at 3.4. Very not great, but not Purdue.

The wheels—already hanging on by a rusted bolt—have come off. This year they're at 3.0 YPC, dead last in the league by 0.4 yards per rush. They are 1.4 YPC behind Michigan State. This is in part because Iowa's nonconference schedule features a real team (Iowa State) and a generally very good FCS team (South Dakota State), but the Hawkeyes put up 1.6 and 2.3 YPC in those games. There is no level of "oops we scheduled sneaky good" that covers that. 3.4 YPC against Rutgers counts as a win. Dios mio.

We mentioned Maryland's abysmal line yards last week because they returned all five OL; looks like they've improved. Iowa has taken a major step back from last year. To drive the point home it's a major step back from this:

• Line yards: 112th.
• Standard down line yards: 119th.
• Opportunity rate: 101st.
• Power success rate: 77th
• Stuff rate: 113th.

Insofar as that is possible.

Iowa runs out a three-headed tailback; all are underclassmen and all have extremely boring names. At least the Maryland linebacker level was a veritable cornucopia of mellifluous nomenclature. Here you've got two Williamses and a Johnson. Alex likes a Williams best: 

I thought Leshon Williams was the best of the Iowa RBs. This play sees him wiggle through a small hole created by his OL and then turn it into a sizable run:

…As a whole, though, Leshon Williams is not a star, and neither are Gavin Williams or Kaleb Johnson. Both halves of the Williams duo can be used in the passing game. They're not going to be torching LBs on wheel routes, but you have to account for the screen possibility.

The offensive line is even more of an issue than last year—and if you're looking for a reason this might be a terminal death spiral for Kirk Ferentz this is it—with two cyaned guys in FFFF and nobody who's looking like an NFL player, or even All Big Ten player.

As far as style of play, it's Iowa. They are an under-center team that is almost entirely zone-based running, with a heavy dose of stretch. That goes nowhere.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DEFENSIVE TACKLES vs GETTING REACHED. Going up a heavy dose of stretch is always a test for the lateral mobility of your defensive tackles. Michigan should be pretty good in this department, especially relative to Iowa opponents to date, but until you see it you don't truly know.

Pass Defense vs Iowa

this is going to LaPorta [Bryan Fuller]

Bracket Sam LaPorta, man up otherwise, the end.

If you insist upon continuing to read this section, here's a Boggling Iowa Stat from Alex:

The WR level remains strikingly under-used, with just 16 catches in 4 games this season going to WRs(!!!!) and that is the result of only 45 targets being thrown their way in total.

In fact, pick your boggling stat. I prefer that Iowa receivers are bringing in 33% of their targets but you choose. It'll be fun for you. Here's another boggling stat: Charlie "Chuck Sizzle" Jones transferred from Iowa to Purdue this offseason. He has 41 catches for 533 yards with the Boilers. Iowa—ALL OF IOWA—has 524 receiving yards.

With Keagan Johnson out for this game, LaPorta and Arland Bruce IV will be the main targets outside of dump-downs to TE #2, Luke Lachey, and the running backs. WR #2 is Nico Ragani; he has played only two of the four games and has two catches on the year. The Iowa WR room has been raided and not replaced:

Iowa lost four scholarship wide receivers, with only one scholarship player at the position in the incoming recruiting class.

Even if Jones’ transfer happened early enough in the spring to seek a suitable transfer option, Ferentz has not been as keen on acquiring talent via the portal as many of his Power Five counterparts.

“There was one receiver that we engaged in conversation with and recruited, and he chose a different place,” Ferentz said. “I'm not saying we're going to shut that market down totally, but it's really not how we're looking to build a team.”

On top of that they've suffered injuries to a couple of scholarship players. This is the least intimidating WR group in the conference.

Spencer Petras is still the Iowa quarterback. Alex on Petras:

Marginal, bordering on inaccurate throws still pop up for Petras, as they did last year. Here's one thrown behind LaPorta (you see how much they target him now, eh?) that the TE has a shot to snag but can't bring in because it's a foot to the right of where it needs to be:

In summation, Petras is a QB that has, over the past two seasons, thrown 11 TD to 11 INT and completed 55.8% of his passes for 6.3 Y/A. He is a Checkdown Charlie who throws primarily within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage or screens, has only one target he feels comfortable with, and is not capable of hurting you with his legs in any substantial manner. Petras' arm is not very strong and it is not very accurate. He would hold back any offense, but on Iowa, Petras is merely a bad cog in an offense with lots of bad cogs.

The Iowa folks I follow on Twitter were stupefied when Petras was not replaced after the Iowa State loss, but from what we've seen of Alex Padilla he's not changing the equation here.

And on top of all that, the offensive line is a sieve. They've given up nine sacks against just 94 passing attempts. A 9% sack rate would have been around 120th nationally last year, and that's after games against South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada, and Rutgers. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln…

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs GREAT GOOGLY-MOOGLY BUSTS. The main way this doesn't go well is for Michigan to run into each other, Keystone Kops-style.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is, as ever, a strength for Iowa. They currently sit 13th in FEI's special teams ratings with acceptable to good rankings in every category. Punter Tory Taylor already has 28 punts this year, nine more than the Big Ten's second most-active punter (Indiana's James Evans). He's whacking them a long way, 47 yards gross, and has suffered less than one return yard per punt. The only thing that's holding him back in efficiency—Iowa is 26th—is five touchbacks.

Iowa had to break in a new kicker this year after Caleb Shudak graduated. Ryan Blom was 1/3 in the first two games and was then replaced by freshman Drew Stevens, who is 4/4. If only Iowa had as quick a hook for obviously incompetent offensive coordinators. We have close to zero data on Stevens, so expect whatever shaded towards good, because Iowa. There was probably a reason he was behind Blom, though.

Stevens also kicks off. 11/16 have gone in the endzone and nothing interesting has happened on the other five.

Bruce returns punts. His ten attempts are averaging about 7 yards a pop. More interesting is that DE Lukas Van Ness blocked two punts against Iowa State due to—yep—a defect in ISU's shield coverage:

“We noticed Iowa State had its two guys in a shield to protect the punter,” Van Ness said. “They were offset off the line a little, so they had me line up and it gave me a straight shot to run at the shield and block a couple of punts."

That shouldn't apply to Michigan, but if anyone's going to throw the kitchen sink at Michigan punts in a desperate attempt to get a short field it's Iowa.

Iowa has has had a couple chunk kickoff returns. Jake Moody is getting touchbacks on 72% of his KOs and have returned only three all season so Iowa's unlikely to get more than one or two cracks at something.

FWIW, Michigan is up to #2 in FEIST.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Iowa's ground game comes alive because Michigan linebackers aren't in the right gaps.
• McCarthy is struck dumb by the Iowa zone.
• Iowa punts it off their own player and recovers it behind the line of scrimmage and advances it for a first down.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• The deep ball is recalibrated successfully.
• Corum/Edwards get in man coverage against linebackers.
• Spencer Petras.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline: 5; –1 for 42-3 Last Year And This Looks Like A Much Worse Iowa Team, –1 for You Rushed For What Against Who?, –1 for Literally Two Scholarship Receivers Available, –1 for Brian Ferentz, –1 for In Soviet Russia, Michigan Out-Special-Teamses Iowa, +1 for Weird Kinnick Juju, +1 for Young Quarterback Against Tricksy Hobbitses, +1 for First Road Game Of Year)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline: 5; +1 for Kinnick Exorcism, +1 for If We Lose The Score Is Going To Be 11-8 Or Something And People Will Be Like "Remember That 11-8 Game" Until We All Die, +1 for Hey Want To Go To The CFP Or Rose Bowl? Don't Lose This Game, +1 for Must Win The Battle Of The Nepotisms)

Loss will cause me to… *loading shotgun* corn's haunted

Win will cause me to… construct elaborate justifications for why everything JJ McCarthy did was according to Juche, even that pick six.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

The Big Ten championship game part two. This is not to say "42-3 blowout" but a game that either looks like a desperate rock fight if Michigan does not get some early explosives or a 42-3 blowout. When Michigan does deviate from "these guys can't score without our help" conservatism I expect a lot of deep balls. They're relatively safe, Iowa meandering pick six last week notwithstanding, and Michigan has some dudes who can run by heady but not massively athletic members of the secondary. If they hit more often this is comfortable.

If not… still probably comfortable, but it'll take until the fourth quarter to feel like that.

Iowa's offense looks so beyond bad that they cannot win without two or three devastating Michigan own-goals. They have no explosion anywhere, and are they going to drive the field against an upper echelon Big Ten defense when they couldn't against South Dakota State and Iowa State? Maybe once. Maaaaaybe twice. Outside of that, no.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• Edwards and/or Henning have explosive days running away from Iowa linebackers on underneath routes after outside guys have run off corners.
• Eyabi Okie emerges as a potential solution at WDE.
• McCarthy settles down after wobbly Maryland game, has a couple of bad moments, hits some hole shots, and puts up 8-9 YPA.
• Michigan 29, Iowa 9