Essentials

WHAT	Michigan vs #9WIndiana	[Fuller]
WHERE	Memorial Stadium Bloomington, IN
WHEN	3:30 Eastern
THE LINE	Michigan –9.5
TELEVISION	ESPN
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	light rain petering out around gametime, cloudy, about 40

Overview

I have good news and bad news about Indiana. Bad news: Juan Harris has retired from football. Good news: this clears the way for Harris to transfer to Iowa in the offseason.

Also in bad news: this is probably the best Indiana team Michigan has seen in a long time. The Hoosiers sit 20th in SP+ with a top-15 offense and a top-40 defense. Much worse Indiana teams have pushed Michigan to the brink. Only Michigan's vast reserves of heartbreaking ways to beat Indiana and Northwestern but not Ohio State have kept Michigan's decades-long win streak intact.

Back to the good news: still a 9.5 point spread.

[Hit THE JUMP for the best Indiana team in a minute]

Run Offense vs Indiana

M gashed IU for 5.1 YPC last year [Upchurch]

IU's defense got a lot better when Tom Allen arrived, first as DC and then as head coach. They've never collected the level of talent you need to have an elite defense, but for Indiana to transform its D into "consistently not bad" is one of the country's more underrated coaching achievements.

This year… eh, they're not bad. They sit 34th in SP+ overall and haven't gotten outright clunked by anyone aside from Ohio State. On the other hand, MSU put up 40 points and 453 yards. Indiana shut out Rutgers and held Northwestern to three points; PSU, Nebraska, and Maryland all had between 28 and 34. They're not bad; they're not particularly good when you get out of the absolute dregs of CFB offenses.

This is reflected in their rush D stats. MSU, Maryland, Nebraska, and Penn State—ie, all of their Big Ten opponents who aren't beyond horrible or OSU—combined to average 4.8 YPC once you delete sacks. This is thoroughly mediocre. Seth asserts they've got an Uche type who plays every down: 

Opposite Head is a good counterfactual if Michigan were to play Uche every down, or perhaps just a good example of what Pierre Woods would be if he played at Michigan today, named Michael Ziemba (+12/-7). Again, I think the roster data lie: he's probably 240-something, tall, lengthy, wiry, and dangerous as hell on a straight edge rush … When asked to play inside gaps or hold up to T/TE doubles he gets tossed five yards downfield, hence the demi-cyan.

They've also got a 330-pound nose tackle who is not Juan Harris who doesn't hold up to doubles, which makes you wonder about the point of a 330 pound DT.

IU throws a lot of guys across the line of scrimmage to make up for some personnel deficiencies that would otherwise result in a steady diet of five and six yard runs, gets a fair few TFLs, and gives up moderate chunks when their blitz gets blocked up. They've got a Don Brown style defense with a couple of virtual safeties at LB and a jet of a MLB; this will be a situation where Michigan can probably get some chunk plays by sending folks the wrong direction.

As for Michigan's side of this, they've been increasingly diverse as the season's gone along. Against MSU the ground game was mostly around to keep the Spartans honest, but notably it included no pin and pulls—a midseason staple—and a bunch of iso action featuring Ben Mason thundering at linebackers. The prior game against Maryland featured a ton of gap-blocked counter plays and relatively little pin and pull.

I'd expect Michigan to continue to stick and move with their ground approach, but predicting exactly what's going to come out of the bag is difficult. At this point it's possible they could amalgamate all the stuff they've done in short bursts and ask Indiana to defend the kitchen sink. Except stretch plays.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN DOUBLES vs BLITZ PICKUP. Michigan's been pretty good at identifying linebackers when they fling themselves across the LOS; doing that here against Indiana's pretty light back seven is likely to pry open the front and send backs to the secondary.

Pass Offense vs Indiana

can be some wide open guys [Bryan Fuller]

Here too Indiana is decent and only decent. They were of course the team that held Rutgers to one(1) passing yard. They also obliterated Northwestern. In games against even semi-functional passing attacks they're slightly on the bleah end of the spectrum:

• OSU: 17/29, 214 yards, 7.4 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT
• MSU: 18/36, 300 yards, 8.3 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT
• Maryland: 17/27, 210 yards, 7.8 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Nebraska: 20/23, 294 yards, 12.8 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT
• PSU: 11/23, 179 yards, 7.8 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT

Their 23 sacks are—yep—exactly average amongst Big Ten teams.

One guy who is not merely decent is their top corner. Allen unearthed another hidden gem of a cornerback in Tiawan Mullen, a true freshman who's emerged into the star of the Hoosier secondary. In Indiana terms Mullen was a pretty good recruiting win. He ended up just outside of the top 500 on the composite; Indiana got him away from Nebraska, Kansas State, and Pitt. Then they inserted him directly into the starting lineup, with excellent results:

Tiawan Mullen has been another impactful freshman this season in college football! pic.twitter.com/WMKkxpZvbP

— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 13, 2019

That's a week old but Mullen's passer rating when targeted didn't change much after PSU; he's fifth in that stat amongst true freshman nationwide, and some of the guys ahead of him aren't getting every snap.

Indiana's issue is that you need more than one guy in the secondary and the other options are middling at best, with a blender at CB opposite Mullen and question marks at safety. They also get zero pass rush from their DTs so getting to the QB requires a lot of blitzing and or getting Uche wins from Ziemba. Michigan has been somewhat vulnerable to the latter—but at the rate of two or three times per game—and has been stellar at picking up blitzes.

This adds up to a situation where Patterson is likely to have time and his choice of non-Mullen secondary members to throw at. Prior to the last few games this would be an easy Patterson's-gonna-obliterate-em call, because when he's given time and open guys he usually deals, but his up-and-down accuracy (injury-induced?) over the last few games is a little worrying.

Michigan's stick-and-move approach of late should probably see the wide receiver screens end up less prominent. Indiana sees a ton of them in practice and will spend chunks of time this week worrying about their application. Could be time for a double move off that action, though.

KEY MATCHUP: MAYFIELD AND RUNYAN JR vs INDIANA DEs. Seth liked James Head along with their Uche type, but if Michigan can contain those two guys Patterson should have a ton of time.

Run Defense vs Indiana

Scott is 230 and runs like it [Eric Upchurch]

This is still the Stevie Scott show. He gets the lion's share of non-QB carries—his backup, freshman Sampson James, has 3 carries all year in competitive games—and remains the same leg-churning YAC dude he was a year ago:

When he gets into the secondary the results are very De'Veon Smith. Seth:

RB Stevie Scott (+4.5/-3, 4.79 YPC and 9 TDs this year) [got] to 4.5 the hard way: a pile of half points doled out for churning would-be 2nd and 10s into 2nd and 8s. The negatives he accumulated for spurning gaps frontside gaps without people in them for more chances to burrow into linebacker chest cavities.

Getting to the fishing village has not happened much against the higher end of the schedule. IU barely bothered with Scott against OSU, running him six times for nine yards. Against MSU and PSU he managed 120 yards on 35 carries, 3.4 a pop; Michigan is a bit worse than OSU and PSU in run D and a bit better than MSU; those four teams have separated themselves from the rest of the league.

Scott is not a homerun threat. Amongst Big Ten schools only Purdue has fewer 20-yard runs than Indiana; IU is also down the list in ten-yard runs. Michigan leads the conference, and the country, in fewest ten-yard runs allowed. Unless there's an out-of-character bust by Michigan success or failure will be determined by the number of second and eights versus the number of second and fours.

Should be noted that IU does run their quarterback with frequency. Ramsey's only played about half of Indiana's snaps and is still their second-leading rusher with 212 yards on 42 non-sack carries. 5.0 YPC is not a great return for getting your QB hit, and Ramsey patently lacks open-field ability. But Indiana will keep Michigan's keep defense honest in an effort to generate a crack for Scott.

Indiana goes empty a lot against the higher end Ds on the schedule so this might be more of a sideshow than anything. Seth charted some interior weakness; this is a line that Carlo Kemp should get to be a productive plus-generating guy against, and it seems like Michigan should be going 3-3-5 most of the time. Scott's likely to churn out 3-4 yards a carry on limited opportunities.

KEY MATCHUP: NOT APPLICABLE vs I DUNNO, TACKLE? This seems almost certain to be exactly 3.2 YPC no matter what either school does.

Pass Defense vs Indiana

Ramsey needs to put his torso into it [Fuller]

Indiana's an excellent case study in the power of Mike DeBord. The Hoosiers averaged 7.8 and 8.3 YPA the two years before DeBord's arrival, 6.4 YPA both years DeBord was in residence, and have bounced back up to 8.5 in the first year of Kalen DeBoer.

This swing has been resilient: Mike Penix went in and out of the lineup before finally going out for the year before Penn State, leaving the offense in the hands of Peyton Ramsey. This has been… fine? You probably remember Ramsey as a largely nondescript guy with a bit of a noodle arm, but he's coming off a 31/41, 371-yard, 9 YPA torching of Penn State. He recently threw Maryland and Nebraska into the same wood chipper.

What's the deal with that? Let's ask Seth:

Last year Ramsey was neck and neck with Dwayne Haskins for shortest depth of original target, and there's a good three-yard difference between him and Penix this year. The pressure is part of it sure, but he also has a limited arm. So they run a lot of screens and easy dinks to spread-out receivers, and go long with lobs not darts. …

Ramsey is dinking it like Jack Coan. Dinking it to a stellar cast, yes, and dinking it two yards further than last year's average, true. But you'll quickly get both used to and annoyed by the number of quick passes made just before the pass rushers are about to hit home, and numbed by the screens.

IU's wide receiver corps is diverse and pretty good. Slot Whop Philyor is a hair behind the two monsters at Minnesota—weird year—in Big Ten receiving yards, and is close to the platonic ideal of Indiana slot. He's even kind of tallish at just under six-foot. Unfortunately for Indiana, Philyor was knocked out of the Penn State game after back-to-back headshots that were incredibly not deemed targeting and is still in concussion protocol. Freshman David Ellis stepped into the slot role pretty seamlessly, with 7 catches and 85 yards last week. Indiana would no doubt like to get Philyor back; if he can't go they're not suddenly going to avoid throwing it to their slot.

The outside guys feature two Brittain Covey Memorial Eighth Year Seniors in Nick Westbrook and Donovan Hale. Yes, they have eligibility still. Yes, both of them. Yes, both of them had a catch against Michigan in 2015. Both guys are in the Giant Overlooked Indiana Receiver mold—Westbrook is 6'3", Hale 6'4"—but a parade of injuries have delayed their development and they're currently the #4 and #5 guys on the team in receptions. Bombing a fade to one of them remains a decent plan; expect Indiana to challenge Michigan with their height. The same goes for Ty Fryfogle, a nominal backup on the outside with more catches and targets than Westbrook and Hale, and TE Peyton Hendershot. It's slots and catching radius giants.

Indiana has given up just 15 sacks on the season but like Michigan State—which entered the Michigan game having allowed just 12—context is important. Indiana's heavy reliance on dinks limits QB exposure. When longer-developing routes have been on the table things haven't gone that well. Seth charted nine pressure events for Ramsey against PSU; there's a reason his depth of target is extremely short.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN CORNERBACKS vs SCREENS. Ambry Thomas's undefeated record will come under some stress in this game, but if Michigan can clamp down on those and put Indiana in third and eight or more that'll do.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Indiana's kicker, Logan Justus, not only sounds like a knockoff Wolverine but also kicks a lot of field goals. After going 15/18 last year he's a perfect 14/14 this year with a fair number of long ones mixed in. Indiana is 6th in field goal efficiency.

The rest of their special teams are nondescript. They return units are very bad, with zero kick returns of note and just four yards an attempt from Philyor on punts. They must have some serious issues fielding punts or muffing them because they are a whopping 127th in punt return efficiency.

Aussie punter Heydon Whitehead has a 42 yard average and has only seen five of his 39 punts returned. Ohio State did block one earlier this year.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• Extremely dumb Indiana game things happen.
• Indiana's inexplicable near-annual run game out of nowhere happens.
• Gray is getting clunked on screens.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Ramsey has to go read #3.
• Michigan's finding pockets on RPOs as Indiana blitzes.
• They line up Not Mullen on Collins.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 4 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Actualized Speed In Space, –1 for Talent Gap, –1 for Ramsey's Arm Isn't Testing M Downfield, +1 for Annual Dumb Indiana Game Things, +1 for Trap Game No Matter What Anyone Says, +1 for Streaks Are Made To Be Broken, –1 for But Yeah Pretty Much A Double Digit Spread)

Desperate need to win level: 8(Baseline: 5; +1 for Narrative Of Progress Is Nice, +1 for Off Chance Of A Rose Bowl, +1 for Streak, +1 for Offseason Take Reduction, –1 for Division Gone)

Loss will cause me to… convince myself it was all on purpose so Michigan can have a free bye before the Game.

Win will cause me to… experience a brief glimmer of hope that my brain immediately attempts to delete.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Indiana is not #chaosteam Indiana but they're kind of back in the same boat where they can play competitive games against the top end of the conference but not win them. Hard to see IU go up and down the field on Michigan with their new zone stuff, but pretty easy to see Indiana grind out 12-play drives that take them from the 25 to the 25. At some point they're going to need to get some explosion after the catch. Always possible; extremely rare against M this year.

When Michigan's on offense they can avoid Mullen and throw it to one of their other very good receivers; IU's reliance on blitzing is not a good matchup with a Michigan team that's superb at picking them up. Talent should win out on a couple of touchdown drives, and IU's probably going to have to kick  field goals.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Teams have <10 possessions each because neither D gets opposing Os off the field quickly and there are a ton of short completions.
• Ramsey throws two INTs as Brown pops some guys up in unexpected places.
• Michigan, 30-19