espn says the line is 9.5.
good luck with that
Other stuff here: Ace FFFF!
|WHAT||Michigan vs Indiana|
Ann Arbor, MI
|WHEN||3:30 PM Eastern
October 19th, 2013
|THE LINE||M –9|
|WEATHER||overcast, low 50s, 30% chance of rain, 10 MPH winds|
Indiana is the new Northwestern, an outfit with an irritatingly good offense whose defense gets clubbed so regularly that they struggle towards bowl eligibility. They've given up 450 rushing yards to Navy, 35 points to Indiana State, 45 to Missouri, 42 to previously-moribund Michigan State.
If only Michigan's rushing offense could be described as "moribund"…
This is high up in a search for "nihilists" thanks to Midnight Maize
Michigan's coming off the worst tailback performance in the history of the program in game I charted and have the tailback a +6.5 for the day, so the foxhole is crowded with atheists. Nihilists. What have you.
The good news(?) is that if there is a program on the schedule that provides an ability to get healthy, it is the extremely permeable Hoosiers. Leaving aside the Navy game, here are Indiana's outings against BCS competition:
Two hammerings and then Penn State providing a little sobriety about the performance of Michigan's rushing defense last week. Ace noted that their line is bad and their linebackers are bad, so they are bad. Think Indiana.
Of course, we're all in this foxhole waiting for the next shell in re: Michigan's running game. It got so bad against Penn State that savior Chris Bryant was pulled for walk-on Joey Burzynski, who didn't do any better against Penn State's loaded-up box. This week damn near anything might happen at guard, including an honest-to-God start for Burzynski or tackle Erik Magnuson getting his first career start at a position he has not played in his career at Michigan. Or both! After a miserable game in Happy Valley, reports are that Kyle Kalis's job is under siege as well, and deservedly.
This is time to full-on panic. Michigan's already pressed that button once with a mid-season switch; they are now pounding it. What's more, the previous move was plausible—Glasgow is major-college-sized and had played a lot of center in the spring and Bryant was a guard who had been injured for a while. Sticking a 6'1" dude and/or a tackle in when both weigh a 70s-era 285 pounds is not plausible.
Michigan will have to be better against Indiana if only because futility on the level of last week only comes around once every 64 years, if that; also Indiana is horrible. But no one's going to be talking about how the line is finally on the right track after this one.
Key Matchup: Guards versus anyone. Is the DT/interior OL matchup an advantage for Indiana? Think about that.
[Hit THE JUMP for WHY U HAVE TO BE GOOD AT OFFENSE]
The Devin Gardner Yards Per Attempt And Turnover Extravaganza visits the Hoosiers this weekend, promising events in all directions. Indiana's hasn't been miserable in the YPA department this year but the consistency with which they give up yards has led to some outlandish statlines:
55 attempts from a true freshman and a MSU quarterback over 200 yards passing. Wonders. They acquired five sacks in those three games, a 3.6% rate that Michigan would be disappointed by. Indiana will drop deep and let you have underneath stuff without harassing your quarterback much. They hope you make some mistakes, please, and have no illusion they will cause any themselves.
So how in the hell does that interact with the God-Emperor Of Amplitude? Probably a lot like James Franklin did, bombing it to Dorial Green-Beckham for a 41-yard catch and seven others besides. Marcus Lucas also went over 100 yards in that game and a third receiver neared 80. Our DGB is Devin Funchess, Lucas is Gallon, and oh right Franklin threw two interceptions while running for 61 yards.
Sounds about par for the course what with Funchess establishing himself a terrifying actual wide receiver who occasionally puts his hand down, Gallon's consistent excellence, and Gardner's tendency to be awesome just before he puts his hand in a meat grinder.
Key matchup: Gardner versus himself, always.
On defense is where it gets hairy. Indiana's adopted a passing-oriented jet-tempo spread offense, what with Nate Sudfeld being about as mobile as his offensive line. Against MSU Indiana called 23 runs against 52 passes; against PSU the ratio was to 32 to 45. Those runs tend to be successful against middling defenses like—sigh—Penn State's but only found erratic success against MSU and little against Mizzou.
The MSU number is one 64-yard touchdown in the first quarter and 27 additional carries for an average of 2.9 yards a pop.
Indiana's main guy here is sophomore Tevin Coleman, who's used IU's tuneup games and a couple of Big Ten bursts to grab an impressive 6.1 YPC; he's also a frequent target on passes with 16 receptions. Coleman has decent power, good speed, and is comfortable with one-cut zone running the likes of which are familiar to Michigan fans. This is his long touchdown against—sigh—Penn State:
This is going to be the usual call for plenty of Quinton Washington, as the pass rush threat a second three-tech brings is not worth the decreased run efficiency, especially against a screen-and-short-pass-mad offense.
Michigan's going to have to be on top of a lot of misdirection here, as IU will zone read even with Sudfeld and will bring in Tre Roberson for spurts, especially if Sudfeld's not doing well; Indiana also throws every screen you've ever heard of and several that haven't been invented yet.
Things get more dangerous on the ground when Roberson comes in. Roberson has gotten only spot duty this year but did come in against Michigan State to put up an 11/17, 122 yard, 2 TD, 1 INT line in garbarge or garbage-ish time. He is a dangerous athlete, or at least has been in the past. Not so much this year, as opponents have kept him bottled up.
On Michigan's side of the ball, it's been tough for an often-undersized defensive line to hold up against doubles, especially in the nickel package. Despite that, they've done well enough and the linebackers have been there consistently enough to make long plays unheard of. Michigan hasn't given up a rush of 20 yards yet, and the two longest runs of the year were quarterback scrambles by Minnesota and Akron. Indiana poses a stiffer test than anyone Michigan's played so far in that department; that's still an impressive record. Against a finesse outfit like the Hoosiers they should do well as long as they don't do very poorly on a couple plays.
Key Matchup: Morgan and Ross versus misdirection. Taking away the quick strike on confusing short stuff goes a long way towards putting the clamps down on this offense. It'll be tough, especially against tempo.
Latimer can play
Michigan's seen this before in incarnations competent and not: a screen-heavy passing spread that stretches the field in all directions. Indiana's incarnation is only okay. Sudfeld struggled to 4.6 YPA against MSU and 5.9 with three interceptions against Missouri; he was much better against—sigh—Penn State's leaky secondary, with 8.4 YPA.
Indiana does have diverse and sundry weapons here. Shane Wynn is Indiana Norfleet, a 5'7" slot with an impressive-for-a-slot 19 yards a catch. This is a punt return, but it gives an idea of what we're dealing with there:
He is an all-purpose weapon Michigan will have to watch out for on screens and end-arounds and all manner of whatnot.
Flanking Wynn are Cody Latimer and Kofi Hughes, experienced, tall, fast-but-not-FAST guys who threaten vertically. Latimer's coming off a 51 catch, 805-yard sophomore year and is getting some NFL draft buzz; Hughes, a senior, has fallen behind him a bit in the pecking order after also drawing a lot of hype early in his career. They're both quality options.
Finally, senior tight end Ted Bolser had 41 catches a year ago; at 6'6", 250, he's a seam threat and will probably end up on an NFL roster himself after this year.
The problem for the Hoosiers is their line, which does not show up in the sack column much because of the nature of their offense but limits what they can do as far as bombing it downfield goes. Ace noted 5 pressures on around 25 downfield attempts against Michigan State—that's a ton.
Sudfeld is also a bit of a weak link; Ace had him down for a whopping 10 inaccurate balls. Roberson's probably a downgrade in that department.
Michigan's coped relatively well with the many passing spreads they've gone up against. They're mostly a bend but don't break outfit that leaves their safeties back and waits for your mistake to get aggressive. When combined with a mediocre organic pass rush and a tendency to get out of rush lanes, this can get frustrating. The results have been good overall, though.
Michigan goes three deep with experienced corners and has put their best, Countess, in the slot. That should help contain Wynn; concerns about the outside corners getting exposed are a lot smaller after Michigan had a good day against Allen Robinson, minus Allen Robinson occasionally being a freak. Channing Stribling might be an option again as Michigan tries to check Indiana's lanky outside WRs; he screwed up on one of the late PSU completions but it wasn't quite as bad as an earlier touchdown given up by Courtney Avery on a badly located back shoulder fade.
Key Matchup: Latimer/Hughes vs Avery/Stribling/Taylor. Indiana's outside WRs are no joke; Michigan coped with PSU but "coped" is probably the right word.
Blargle. Fargle blargle.
Right. As a team, Indiana is averaging 15 yards a punt return, though that one return from Wynn above against Indiana State is distorting that heavily. The good news: Indiana has only returned seven punts on the year because their defense is so bad. Michigan should try not to punt. It might get scary if there's one guy within 15 yards of Wynn on the catch.
Kicker Mitch Ewald is putting about two-third of his KOs in the endzone and has made about 80% of his field goals over a four-year career. Punter Erich Toth is average.
Michigan's Brendan Gibbons picked a bad time to miss from 40 and 33; he is generally solid otherwise. Punting… guh, return central. Returns have been steady with Drew Dileo; Dennis Norfleet is perpetually one guy away from a big kickoff runback.
Key Matchup: YOU PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS
it's made of flan
Cackle with knowing glee if...
Fear/Paranoia Level: 5 (Baseline 5; –1 for You Are Indiana, +1 for …And I Think You Win The IU DT/M OL Matchup, –1 for By Golly Michigan Is Prepped For Passing Spreads, +1 for You May Be Indiana But You Just Beat PSU By 20, –1 for Vegas Line, Vegas Line, Vegas Line, +1 for Oh Good A Team That Looks At The Playclock As A Resource)
Desperate need to win level: 7 (Baseline 5; +1 for I Guess If We Run The Table We Could Still Win The Division, –1 for Uhhhhh, +1 for Home Loss To Indiana Is Not A Good Resume Builder, +1 for I Really Need Next Week To Not Be This Week, –1 for I Feel Henri The Otter Of Ennui Just Around The Corner, +1 for Also There's A Bye So If Next Week Is This Week It's Two Full Weeks, –1 for Yes We Admit It This Team Is No Good. +1 for But Indiana)
Loss will cause me to... desperately pine for Alex Mitchell.
Win will cause me to... brace for impact with November.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
Normally I'd say something like Michigan will grind down the Indiana defense because that's just what happens when Indiana plays Michigan. Obviously that is no longer an option. Unless it is. With Lewan back, the tackle over business threatens to be more effective, especially since Indiana's defensive line does not sport a Da'Quan Jones. They have one moderately disruptive defensive end, who'll still probably get clocked. And it's almost impossible to be as bad as Michigan was on Saturday if only because of luck. Michigan will move the ball in stops and starts, relying on Gardner to bail them out of some second and third and longs; they can actually overpower the Hoosiers in the red zone.
On the other side of the ball, Indiana will find success closer to that they found against MSU and Missouri than against Penn State. Michigan's set up pretty well to defend this offense with Ross and Morgan sniffing out plays and Countess patrolling the slot areas. They will get various things when Michigan guesses wrong or gets caught in the wrong defense; they won't skate up and down the field. Runs will be middling successes at best and they'll slog it out fast.
Tempo will screw with Michigan, providing a drive or two that causes some hair-clutching, and the outside receivers are good enough to get a couple of deep ones. Indiana scores in the twenties; Michigan barely outdistances them.
Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
espn says the line is 9.5.
Bovada has it at 10. Which given Michigan's inability to handily beat lesser competition this year would compel me to take Indiana all day long.
Well, we did beat CMU by 50 and Minnesota by 29. At home, we usually do take care of patsies. Akron seems like an outlier.
Hell, if this was the line for the ND game, we would have covered. And Indiana is not as good as ND.
highly emotive fan-type guy, which is what makes him fun. We win by 10-14.
also I think it's at 3:30 not 5pm
Oct 19th too.
And I think it is on BTN not ESPN (both websites show it on BTN).
Someone really liked last week's result and didn't want to change the schedule box...
Edit. Too slow...
we invited a time machine!
is written all over this game. By 4th quarter it'll be "OMG not overtime again!".
Probably the most explosive and experienced Indiana team Michigan has played since the Mallory years and maybe even the Corso years, less defensive competence.
The UM defense wins this one Akron-style on 4th and goal to goal, because Kevin Wilson decides Roberson should throw in the redzone during the final seconds.
Later, I'll be checked in to a local hospital emergency room for heart defibrulation and an enema.
Michigan 34 Indiana 31
The mere fact that I'm actually concerned about Michigan losing to Indiana is annoying. I really can't remember a time I've ever thought "man, I hope they can beat Indiana at home."
Your 2013 Michigan Wolverines ladies and gentlemen.
2009 ring a bell?
I don't remember this 2009 that you speak of.
But seriously, I don't think many people were concerned about Indiana in 2009. Michigan was 3-0 heading into that game and had crushed their cupcakes (combined score of 76-24) and won a 38-34 squeaker over Notre Dame. The close win over Indiana that season was the signal that trouble was on the horizon. Prior to that, things were all good. After that...eh, not so much.
I was near the IU fan section, and a couple of them were surprisingly obnoxious.
...on the 12th.
Hang in there Brian
If we lose, it would be a supreme disappointment, and the end of any hopes of a shot at the B1G title. So Iet's just ignore that scary and somehow real possibility.
What I'm watching for is our production on 1st down. I don't really care how we do it (although it seems pretty obvious our power running game won't make it work consistently) but we need to average at least 4 YPP on first down for me to be happy. I'm interested to see how AB addresses this.
How is the "desperate need to win level" not a 10 for this game? We're coming off an epic meltdown in State College and we haven't lost to Indiana since '87.
Indiana hasn't won at Michigan since 1967.
I think we lose this game, and don't lead at any point. Whole offense is in a psychological shell, and Indiana will put up at least 30.
Yeah, that's why I think a 9/10 point line is odd. Indiana is going to score. Probably in the 25-30 range. I really don't have any confidence that Michigan's offense can put up more than 35-40 points to beat that line. Something like 28-31 seems more likely. Flip a coin on who wins.
Indiana's defense is bad. The funny thing is if you pair our defense with their offense you probably have a real contender even against the likes of OSU. Now the even funnier thing is we have some players that have a lot of talent that could product even better than IU if we move a bit towards their system for this year while behind the scenes our coaches figure out what is wrong with the OL.
Anyway, let's beat the Hoosiers and enjoy a relaxing bye week.
Victory is by no means certain but this is our house. Let's do this.
Look - we've only been held under 40 twice this season out of 6 games. Both were turnover fests - one against UConn (who has a decent defense) on the road.
We will score 35+ against Indiana. In fact, I bet we cover the spread. Indiana has a solid O (that we match up well against) and an awful D.
UM only scored 34 pts in regulation against PSU. If you take out the defensively TD, UM's offense only scored 27 pts against PSU and hasn't cracked 30 pts in half their games so far this year.
But you can't put a caveat on everything. Lots of teams score less if you take away some of the ways they score.
You can't just decide to take away the defensive points we score. What if Clark picks that ball up and only runs it to the 5? We probable score anyway. Teams score points off turnovers, and the points count the same whether the defensive player scores it or the offense does the job a handful of plays later.
Indiana is a team that allows sacks and throws picks, so it's not a stretch to think we might get a defensive TD or a turnover that sets up our offense for some easy points against a bad D. Either way, points are points.
How do you know that the entire offense is in a psychological shell? The entire FANBASE is in a shell, but I bet that the team is just focused on Indiana.
Just an observation and opinion. Devin, to me, has clearly been rattled since the Akron game. Fitz seems to be hesitant and doubting. The offensive line ... well, if they're human then they should be having self-confidence issues. Even Lewan has been blowing some plays that he never would have last year. Everyone just seems to be pressing, tentative, and playing scared.
Gardner played a gutty, determined second half against PSU. He was pissed they lost, not relieved it was over. Fitz kept trying all game long, no matter how many people were immediately in his face. Funchess in a shell? Gallon? Nah...
The guards are getting their asses kicked, so are the TE's on running plays. They may be in a shell.
Well, I hope you're right. I've seen a lot of frustration and despair on the faces of a lot of those guys. And tight play. They're all dealing with a massive identity adjustment after that ND win. I think the whole offense began getting ideas of Heismans and all-time receiving yard records. Now they're having to reconcile that with all-time worst performances. Tough shift in the course of three or four weeks.
To me, Funchess is the only guy playing with a high level of confidence.
if they get rolling, they start feeling good, and the past doesn't mean anything. just got to come out early and consistently and things will be fine.
of course, probably as soon as something goes wrong, they'll get back in their heads, will become tenative etc
I was with you until the second half, when somehow, some way, Gardner flipped a switch and looked like the guy who played against Notre Dame. Which, of course, makes it even more inexcusable that the coaches acted like the absolute worst thing in the world would be to out the ball in his hands in OT. Great way to build confidence, that.
CALVINBALL. They'll never know what hit them.
score: Q to 12
Until Rosalyn comes over and makes us go to bed
Let's field an entire lineup of talking produce! At this point, a stack of watermelons and pumpkins might be a better guard combo than any human being Michigan has on its roster. Banana at QB, apple at RB, cucumbers at WR (they're long, you see), pumpkins and watermelons on the OL (with actual person Taylor Lewan at LT).
Of course, you run the risk of the other team eating your entire offense.
but certainly a better gourd combo.
when IU's "Cardiac Kids" went to the Rose Bowl and Michigan was a gaudy 4-6. The Hoosiers played eventual national champion USC (who had OJ SImpson) and lost 14-3.
I am going to the game tomorrow. I may just ask a police office to spray me in the eyes with mace so I don't have to watch this debacle.
Pictures or it didn't happen!
Turning point game. Michigan by 21, 38-17.
Michigan's first offensive play: Playaction bomb to Devin Funchess for a touchdown.
Michigan's second offensive play: Tackle-over stretch to the right for -1 yards.
Michigan's third offensive play: interception.
Like the Dieter glasses on Nihilist No. 2, and of course, The Flea...
and watch it in fast forward. That should be fun.
I fully expect the offense to hum along and drop 40+ on IU; the issue is that it won't really mean anything. They could house the Hoosiers by 50 and it won't really change the fear that Lizard Brain Al Borges is lurking around the corner, ready to drum everyone over the head with 30 rushes for 1.2 ypc.
I expect UM to win comfortably, but man the next two weeks are going to be rough leading up to MSU.