Essentials

WHAT	The Game
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	OSU -9
TELEVISION	FOX
TICKETS	exist
WEATHER	mid-30s, scattered sleet/rain, minimal accumulation 10-12 mph wind

Overview

Founded by a Norwegian logging scout in 1843, Ohio State is an institution fanatically dedicated to definite articles and a 25-letter English alphabet. Some of its notable alumni include Jeffrey Dahmer, Hitler, Also Hitler, Dick Vitale, Robot Hitler, Hitler 2.0, and Papa John. Its student body is exclusively populated by the people with the squarest heads in a five-state radius. Most classes cover tasks like extracting foodstuffs from difficult containers, ranging from Peanut Butter 101 to grad-level courses like Opening A Walnut With Your Mind 505, the latter of which suggests using your mind to get some nutcrackers.

After competing at the NCAA D-II level for most of its existence, Ohio State has recently added a D-I football team that's been surprisingly good. Central Ohio ratings for Ow! My Balls! have declined 4% in response.

[Hit THE JUMP for ow our balls]

Run Offense vs OSU

ugh [Barron]

This is no longer an MSU/PSU-alike defense. As you might expect from Greg Mattison, OSU's single high safety system alternates between cover one man and cover three. This means the free safety is cleanup only in the run game and puts an onus on the front seven to keep things contained, especially because they are so one-high focused that they list their fourth defensive back as a "slot corner". There is one safety here, at 15 yards, and they rely on their front seven to deal with the run.

OSU has done this emphatically. Exactly one team has had a run game you could call successful. Nebraska managed 184 yards on 39 carries in a 48-7 loss. The only other teams to crest even three yards a carry have been Cincinnati and, uh, Northwestern.

All Ohio State stats are hard to evaluate because their season has been nothing but blowouts until last week, which was pretty much a blowout until OSU gacked up some fumbles. They are the #1 SP+ defense, so, yeah. There's that. The numbers are probably even worse in the competitive sections of the game.

This also comes from Chase Young, about whom more in the next section. Suffice it to say he's just as devastating on the ground as he is as a rusher. OSU also has three good DTs they rotate; none of them are regularly explosive backfield destroyers but all chip in; it has been difficult for opponents to move any of Davon Hamilton, Jashon Cornell, or Robert Landers. Linebacker duties have been simplified to an MSU-like point: attack downhill on run action and rely on your secondary and Young to make it right. This has cut last year's hilarious bust tendency right out.

Michigan will hope to hold certain guys back with RPO elements and either run away from or option Young. Without significant help from Shea Patterson they're not going to be able to widen out OSU enough to do anything inside the tackles, and running away from Young too much is a recipe for getting RPSed. It seems like for a third straight week the run game is going to be a keep-em-honest side show as Michigan runs a ton of quick game RPOs.

And that's fine. But don't expect fireworks here.

KEY MATCHUP: PATTERSON vs TIMELY KEEPS. There are going to be 60-80 yards out there for him. He needs to get most of those.

Pass Offense vs OSU

[Barron]

This has been a complete debacle for every team who's faced OSU. They enter giving up 4.9 YPA with 6 TDs and 14 INTs on the season. The catch is that they've played almost entirely mugs. Northwestern (#130 in YPA), Maryland (#114), Rutgers (#119), MSU (#102), Miami(NTM)(#77), and Cincinnati(#83) are all between abominable and very bad at passing. Indiana and Wisconsin are all right; Indiana managed 6.0 YPA and Wisconsin 6.4, which could equate to something in the 7+ range for Michigan, currently 29th in YPA and surging, even without accounting for rivalry game hijinks. This version of the Michigan passing offense far outstrips anything OSU has seen to date.

It is still going to be hairy in the extreme. You have probably heard of Chase Young. So: Chase Young. Potential Heisman candidate until an incredibly convenient two-game suspension knocked him out of the Maryland and Rutgers games. Person Penn State decided to single block with their middling tackles. They were rewarded with three sacks, a forced fumble, and another TFL. Frames! Idiot.

Ohio State has a bunch of other sacks but doesn't get a ton of production out of their other DE spot; DT Davon Hamilton has four sacks as a DT, which is fairly impressive, but three of those came against Rutgers and Maryland. No extra attention can be paid to other rushers.  If Michigan's going to survive, they're going to trust their interior line to hold the fort like they've done all season, find Young, and then either offer help or attempt to make his abilities irrelevant.

OSU can delete the help by blitzing, but that plays into what's certain to be Michigan's other main approach: RPOs up and around the various wazoos. Michigan ran at least 10 against Indiana—probably significantly more—of all varieties, and they'd be crazy not to use a ton against OSU after building to it for a whole season. Young may be able to execute the Uche-vs-a-screen thing where he's supposed to be unblocked and makes a play anyway, but I'm rolling the dice on that. The alternative is a bunch of matchups against Jalen Mayfield, who's been pretty good for a redshirt freshman and would get torn limb-from-limb by Young.

The other thing Michigan can do with limited risk and potentially good success is to punt it up to their various receivers but especially Nico Collins and see what happens. Collins scored two fade touchdowns in the redzone last year that looked fairly unstoppable and could reprise that on those insta-fades that are popular with teams that can't pass block at all. OSU's corners are obviously on another level from most of Michigan's schedule, but they were last year and Collins felt pretty unstoppable; Donovan Peoples-Jones is another guy who has turned in some-capital-P Plays against OSU recently and just did some work against Tiawan Mullen, probably the most OSU-esque corner Michigan's seen on the schedule.

Jeffrey Okudah, currently projected by many to go in the top five of the NFL draft, was a five-star safety recruit who's an NFL-level corner and brings the requisite size you'd expect. The rest of their corner situation is in the pretty-good-not-great category, though:

Chase Young has driven much more of OSU's defensive success than their three-man corner unit. That's not to say Michigan's going to get free releases over the top like they did against Indiana, but on plays where Michigan protects Patterson it's reasonable to believe that Michigan's WR corps will be able to chisel out a fair number of wins. Damon Arnette in particular is a guy who Michigan might be able to get after. The Draft Network:

…knows his athletic limitations and therefore knows how to position himself well enough to mask it in snap-to-snap situations. Won't play a lot of man coverage because of it. Is most comfortable in off Cover 3 where he plays with outside leverage to force things inside with help. …

plain and simple not a great athlete. He is a good athlete, but he is scheme and technique limited because of his lack of overall athleticism. Plays in constant off-Cover 3 or if he is playing more of a press look, it's with bail technique because he does not have the necessary athleticism to keep up with most receivers hip-to-hip on the outside.

Michigan can mix in some max pro shots if their RPO game is going; they'll be risky, but they'll probably be necessary.

KEY MATCHUP: JOSH GATTIS vs CHASE YOUNG. Metaphorically, Gattis is going to end up blocking Young as much or more as anyone on the field. There is no on-field solution for Young given Michigan's personnel; those will have to come from the sideline.

Run Defense vs OSU

Can M hold up? [Barron]

This is the JK Dobbins show; backup Master Teague has 116 carries but the large majority of those have come in the second half of OSU's weekly blowouts. Teague got just two carries last week and will probably see about as much time this week, barring a Dobbins issue.

At this point I barely have to talk about Dobbins, I'd assume. He's a squat, thick, fast guy closer to the scatback end of the scale but by no means easy to tackle or bereft of YAC. He benefits greatly from the nature of the OSU offense; many of his long runs are just going straight while no one lays a hand on him.

Last year's lack of a running QB saw his average dip to 5 YPC from 7.2; this year it's bounced back up to 6.6. Dobbins thrives in space and jukes past safeties and linebackers with ease. When bottled up close to the LOS he can find a crease and get something, but that's not his wheelhouse.

QB Justin Fields is addressed holistically in the next section; for purposes of this one he usually acts in a role similar to 2018 Shea Patterson after the arc game ramped up. Fields gets 7-8 non-sack carries a game, a couple of which are scrambles. Those runs go for 7.5 yards a pop because Fields is pretty fast and pretty big and the carries are relatively rare. Fields is much more plausible in the Tebow/Cardale short yardage tank role than Patterson, but not on the level of either of those guys.

OSU's QB rush paradigm changed radically against Penn State, when Fields had 18 non-sack carries for 96 yards, 5.3 YPC. The brakes were off on Fields carries in that game and may be again Saturday. The only reason there's a "may" in that sentence is Field's injury situation. He is rumored to have broken the thumb on his non-throwing hand and limped off the field with two minutes left against Penn State after a nasty-looking ankle turn.

Either way this will be a serious challenge for Michigan's run defense, which has been awesome against a bunch of teams that don't football good and got eviscerated by Wisconsin. OSU's opening drive against PSU was ominous: every single yard gained on the ground against the then-#1 rush D in the country, and a ton of it with OSU's traditional "tight zone," which focuses on hammering DL off the ball with doubles for five yards a pop and then daring you to do something about it.

Michigan has managed to fend off most gap-blocked plays by getting excellent play from their DEs. Even the interior Maryland success hinged on expecting that M would play to spill and doubling those DEs; once Michigan figured it out they responded by getting those DEs ever further inside. OSU will probably have ways to attack this, because Michigan doesn't really have a choice; tight zone is less combatable by those DEs, and then Michigan will have to play a game of cat and mouse against a rush offense where choosing poorly means it gets put on you.

The good news, such as it is, is that Seth thought the OSU OL was maybe not the dominant unit you'd think it is based on their rush output:

The whole OL was up and down, except the interior trio impressively gave up a total of one pressure versus Robert Windsor. That was from LG Jonah Jackson (+7/-10, –1), the grad transfer until recently known as that one good player on Rutgers. C Josh Myers (+6/-4.5) loses leverage at times but I predict he'll have a star the next two times I do this. RG Wyatt Davis (+5/-12) was the composite #24 in 2017 as a guard and you can see why when he executes a reach block, but he's got major targeting problems whenever it's not clear who or how he's blocking. RT Branden Bowen (+7/-4, –3) has returned from a year lost to injury and had a good game.  …

What gives me pause here is they're not bad in the way that a lot of previous Michigan opponents were. These aren't Spartan five-year starters still a few peanut butter sandwiches away from being able to keep Kwity Paye from tossing them into their QB's lap. OSU's linemen are all the perfect dimensions for their jobs, perfectly shaped, and athletic enough to have pro careers, but for various (mostly good) reasons their awareness scores are all in the 60s or 70s.

Michigan's best bet might be to have Don Brown throw the kitchen sink at them. They'd accept the inevitable chunks that happen when OSU blocks up a stunt or slant in exchange for some stuffs that put OSU in passing downs, where their rush will hopefully induce a punt.

KEY MATCHUP: DON BROWN vs HIS WEIRD PIECES AND A SEASON OF TENDENCIES. Brown's gameplanned a top five SP+ defense out of one okay defensive tackle, but he's probably going to have to have some very different approaches in his back pocket if he's going to get this unit to survive against OSU.

KEY MATCHUP:

Pass Defense vs OSU

Not this, but maybe something else [Barron]

Ah, hell. If you needed any more evidence that the universe is a simulation, specifically Seth's theory that it's an NCAA Football dynasty run by a 15-year old kid in Dayton, this is the Rube Goldberg machine that resulted in the OSU QB situation:

• A rare and potentially devastating gap shows up in OSU's QB recruiting after Joe Burrow transfers away from Dwayne Haskins only for Haskins to head to the NFL as a redshirt sophomore.
• OSU is staring down the barrel of Tate Martell as the starting QB.
• Justin Fields bails on Georgia after one year because Jake Fromm is locked in as the starter.
• Fields is immediately eligible after claiming racial animosity drove him from UGA.
• Fields is immediately awesome with zero transition costs.

FFS. PFF on Fields prior to the PSU game:

…rattled off seven game grades of 80.0 or higher and elite passing grades in seven as well. … third-highest-graded passer on throws to the intermediate range of the field and third-highest on all throws at least 10 yards downfield. He's completed 69-of-113 attempts on throws 10 or more yards downfield for 1,423 yards and 24 touchdowns compared to just one interception. His passer rating of 140.9 is by far the highest among all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts downfield.

I guess the good news is Fields is the #2 QB in the country, but Burrow is #1?

…

I'm hearing that's not good news.

Anyway, OSU supplies Fields with Binjimen Victor and Austin Mack, who are both strapping downfield types, hyper-efficient inside/outside Ronnie-Bell-alike KJ Hill, and last year's ugh machine Chris Olave. Mack (234 yards) does not get targeted a ton. Victor(480 yards) is the main bomb target. Hill and Olave are the guys OSU turns to on a regular basis, with Olave operating in deeper areas while Hill is this year's screen/end-around/drag guy.

Michigan combats that with a defense that's increasingly a two-high zone look. I'm relatively comfortable with Mack and Victor matching up against Michigan corners not named Vincent Gray, who's had trouble getting his head around on fade routes. I'm relatively comfortable with whatever Josh Metellus is doing. Brad Hawkins might be a point OSU could go after, if he's even ready to go after missing the Indiana game, and Olave's ability to pop up wherever and attack a weak point is potentially troublesome.

Michigan has much better and more diverse answers to combat the drags that OSU killed Michigan with last year, but OSU has largely moved on from that anyway. Still, if Fields has a weakness its his tendency to hold the ball too long in the pocket. Michigan, with it's national-best QB knockdown rate, is much better positioned to take advantage of that than everyone else on the schedule. Michigan mixing up coverages in anticipation of OSU having downloaded their existing approach could and should get Fields in trouble some, whereupon he will either be sacked or do some Vince Young crap that makes you eat your hat.

To do that Michigan will have to cover first and second reads and maintain the same pocket integrity they've managed for much of the season.

Justin Fields is extremely dangerous with his legs when running the ball on 3rd/4th downs - he averages 7.9 yards per carry and converts a first down on 65% of attempts

— Jarad Evans (@Jarad_Evans) November 27, 2019

I do not expect a repeat of last year but neither is this likely to be a clear win for Michigan.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN vs THIRD AND LONG. OSU has been outstanding on passing downs this year. In the version of this game Michigan wins this absolutely cannot be the case. M leads the country in preventing third and long conversions They'll get relatively few opportunities to be in those situations. They have to take advantage of them.

SPECIAL TEAMS

OSU's special teams are typically, maddeningly good. They're second in special teams FEI, with no below-average components. Punts have been split between freshman slot Garrett Wilson and RB Demario McCall; neither has broken anything; they're averaging 8.3 yards per return as a team. That's merely decent. McCall also returns kickoffs, where he's got a 23 yard average on… 10 attempts. OSU returns about 1 kickoff a game.

Punter Drue Crisman returns; he's got a 44 yard average and has allowed just 8 of his 34 punts to be returned. Couple that with good accuracy inside the 20 and you've got the #6 punt return efficiency unit in the country.

Kicker Blake Haubeil is 8/10 this year after going 10/13 last year; he slots in 34th in FG efficiency.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• I would just generally worry, you know?
• No matter what happens, I would be worried.
• Be worried if anything happens, or if nothing happens.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• Fields is banged up to the point where his effectiveness is limited.
• Indiana Patterson shows up.
• Michigan has a 2017 gameplan with a functional QB.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +1 for I Don't Know The Past 15 Years, +1 for Historically Good Version Of OSU, +1 for Is This Even A Home Game Do Something Warde, +1 for Scalded Dog Time, +1 for The Universe Is OSU Kid Simulation)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for The Game)

Loss will cause me to… I could probably get a job selling tacos to customers on a voluntary basis.

Win will cause me to… I honestly don't even know.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

I'd have a tough time predicting a win over Tate Martell given the OSU defense, and Tate Martell ain't walking through that door. It feels like it's just matter of time before Michigan runs out of cool stuff to avoid the looming Chase Young fact, whereupon they have to take chances on dropbacks, whereupon Patterson gets annihilated and crippling turnovers doom a spirited upset bid.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• I am surrounded by OSU fans because the athletic department doesn't care to do anything about it.
• One of them bitches to his friends in the second quarter because Michigan might win the game.
• Ohio State, 33-26