Opponent Watch 2020: Preview Or Week 8 Or Something Comment Count

BiSB October 22nd, 2020 at 10:12 AM

So that happened. And is still happening. And will probably still be happening for a long time. For a while it looked like we would not get to chat this season. I am glad that was not the case. I missed you all, and I missed this stupid sport.

Reader, at the risk of breaking the fourth wall that we never really respected to begin with, I must be honest. This year has been rough on all of us. It has gnawed at our patience with a relentlessness not felt before in our lifetimes. It has tested our confidence in ourselves and our faith in each other. It has forced us to take on roles we aren’t qualified for, to contemplate things we normally keep bottled up in the darkest corners of our minds, and to treat each tiny moment in our day as both a blessing and a threat to our very lives. And given all that, I wasn’t sure how I would even write a light-hearted column about something as frivolous and inconsequential as college football.

And then the Big Ten posted the noon slate for Week 1.

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Nature is healing. We’re gonna get through this together.

For those who are unfamiliar with this wordpile, every week we will take a tour around Michigan’s schedule of opponents and glean what little information we can. Fair warning: because of the abbreviated schedule, this piece will contain more Rutgers by volume than in most years. Pace yourselves.

Minnesota

Last year: 11-2 (7-2 B1G), beat Auburn in the Outback Bowl 31-24

Recap: Minnesota had an Alpaca-Out-Of-Nowhere season. They barely survived their first three games, beating South Dakota by 7, Fresno State by 3 in double OT, and Georgia Southern by 3. Then they rattled off six wins to open conference play, including a win over #4 Penn State, before losing games to Iowa and Wisconsin. A solid win over Auburn in the Outback bowl gave Minnesota their first 11 win season since the Roosevelt administration. Nope, not that Roosevelt. The first one.

Come to think of it, PJ Fleck kinda reminds me of Teddy Roosevelt: Bombastic. Energetic. Extremely young for his field. Speaks as if the transcript should be written in all caps. Won early acclaim by winning big with a bunch of broncos. Big fan of boats.

When last we saw them: The Jug has been getting dusty, as Michigan has only played Minnesota once in the last four seasons. Michigan beat the Gophers 33-10 in 2017 on the strength of (a) Karan Higdon and Chris Evans combining for 391 yards rushing and 4 TDs at 13.5 yards per carry, and (b) Minnesota making a tactical decision to not block Khaleke Hudson (3 sacks, 8 TFLs).

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Jon Falk witnessed this. Chase Winovich was never seen again. (Barron)

This team is as frightening as: Y’all isolated PJ Fleck from society for six months. This is basically the Dr. Moreau version of what happened to Madagascar and the Galapagos Islands. God only knows what batshit insanity is going to be rolling into the stadium on Saturday. I'd set the over/under at "pig head on a spike." Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: Rashod Bateman, who opted out of the season after the B1G initially canceled, recently opted back in. He might be the best receiver in the Big Ten. And Michigan is basically breaking in an entirely new secondary.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has beaten Minnesota in 41 of the last 45 battles for the Jug, a record Indiana would kill for.

When they play Michigan: If you haven’t watched college football (or pro football for that matter) this year, one theme has been that Week One is ugly. Buckle up.

First game: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., ABC (Minn +3.5)

AFTER THE JUMP: #SpartansWill experience a Year Zero

Michigan State

Last year: 7-6 (4-5 B1G, 0-1 Karma), beat Wake Forest in the Pinstripe Bowl 27-21

Recap: At this point, what can I say about Michigan State that hasn’t already been said in a sworn deposition?

The Spartans lost six games – and lost to Michigan in thumping fashion – for the third time in four seasons. They scored 17 points in the entire month of October. They lost a game because they couldn’t count to 11. They blew a 28-3 lead to Illinois. They finished outside the top 100 nationally in offensive yards per play for the 3rd straight year. They were practically unwatchable (which is not to say that we didn't watch).

And then came the bad news. The day after national signing day – and a few days after earning a $4.3 million dollar retention bonus, and a few hours after allegations of recruiting violations surfaced – Mark Dantonio spontaneously decided to “retire.” Fortunately for Michigan State, they had the perfect coach, Luke Fickell, lined up to replace him. Unfortunately that coach was unaware of this arrangement and stuck with his current, better job coaching in the AAC.

Mel Tucker has his work cut out for him. Michigan State loses a three year starting quarterback, its 3 leading receivers, and 263 career starts (a shade over 20 seasons worth) from its defense. Their returning quarterbacks completed 9 of 24 passes last year for 3.6 yards per attempt. Their recruiting fell off a cliff the last couple of years. And, despite the changes they have requested from the NCAA, winning football games still requires you to score points.

When last we saw them: Michigan State jumped out to a 7-0 lead.

This team is as frightening as: The Black Knight

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“None shall pass. This is the year Michigan State turns things around. We just had to move coordinators around a bit."

         /MSU loses 6 games

“Tis but a scratch. Mark Dantonio will get things turned around. Dantonio moves for no man.”

         /Dantonio retires

“I’ve had worse. Luke Fickell will solve this.”

         /Fickell turns down the job

“Victory is mine! MSU gave Mel Tucker a huge budget to bring in a dynamite staff.”

         /Tucker just gives his Colorado staff a massive raise

“Merely a flesh wound. A grad transfer quarterback will revitalize the offense.”

         /MSU strikes out on grad transfer market

“The #SpartanDawgs always triumph! Have at you! Tucker is a recruiting genius who will stock the cupboard with talent.”

         /MSU ranks #50 in the country in recruiting

“Had enough, eh? Jacub Panasiuk will bite your legs off.”

Fear Level = Invincible

Michigan should worry about: Halloween Day. In 2020. Against a bitter rival. With very little tape from which to scout most of their personnel or scheme.

If we get Gus Johnson, the stadium might literally implode into a parallel dimension, Poltergeist style.

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Hayden Fox also turned down the MSU job, opting to stay at Minnesota State.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: They are going to be pretty dang awful.

When they play Michigan: Over/Under on the number of total QBs playing in this game: 4.5.

First game: vs. Rutgers, noon, BTN (MSU -12.5)

Indiana

Last year: 8-5 (5-4 B1G), lost Gator Bowl to Tennessee 23-22

Recap: Last year for Indiana was what the kids call “meta.” It was every Poor Damn Indiana game stretched out into one season-long effort. After some early season success, the goal of being the first 9-win Indiana team since 1967. And for most of the season, it looked like the prophecy would come to fruition; they were sitting on 8 wins and a 13 point lead over Tennessee with under five minutes left in the Gator Bowl. #9Windiana was, according to ESPN’s win probability chart, more than a 97% likelihood.

Alas, Poor Damn Indiana.

Still, #8Windiana was a nice consolation prize, as it was Indiana’s first 8-win season since 1993. Other than a rather inexplicable loss to Michigan State in which they surrendered 40 points, the Hoosiers beat the teams they were supposed to beat, and only occasionally tried to rip the still-beating hearts out of their own fans for no discernable reason.

When last we saw them: Counterintuitively, despite a decade of predictably stupid games against inferior Indiana teams, Michigan ran away from the Hoosiers comfortably for the first time in recent memory. The Wolverines scored the game’s final 32 points to win 39-14, not including this kick return by Giles Jackson which was overturned by the replay booth for some reason.

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Physics teaches us that two objects never actually touch, so the refs got this one wrong.

The streak is up to 24 straight wins for Michigan. The Hoosiers have one win in the series since Bo arrived.

This team is as frightening as: Someone knocking on the door during a pandemic. It’s probably fine. Odds are, it’s something you ordered. But you still want them to go away as quickly as possible, just in case. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Peyton Ramsey had one of the better passing seasons in recent Hoosierdom, completing 68% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt. And he was so clearly behind Michael Penix that he grad-transferred to Northwestern in the offseason. A healthy Penix could cause all sorts of problems for Big Ten defenses; he has a strong arm, and is a major upgrade in mobility from Ramsey.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: 24 in a row.

When they play Michigan: Maybe 2020 is the year the Senseless Indiana Game Stupidity ends. Yep, because that seems likely. This seems like the year that’ll happen.

First game: vs. Penn State, 3:30 p.m., FS1 (IU +6.5)

Wisconsin

Last year: 10-4 (7-2 B1G), Lost BTCG to Ohio State, Lost Rose Bowl to Oregon, 28-27

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Wisconsin.

Recap: Wisconsin was Wisconsin. They ran the ball a lot, threw every so often, and were, by and large, large. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 2000 yards again. They won the West again. They lost the Big Ten Championship Game again. Cheese, things of that nature.

When last we saw them: Listen,,,

This team is as frightening as: Wisconsin, circa the last couple of decades. Fear Level = 8

Michigan should worry about: The Badgers return almost their entire defense, which was quite good last year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Jonathan Taylor is gone, and Jack Coan is sidelined for an indeterminate amount of time with a foot injury. That’s 78% of their production from scrimmage in two guys. Also, Michigan has won 7 of the last 8 in this series in Ann Arbor.

When they play Michigan: Michigan starts an unknown grad transfer corner who looks a lot like Jourdan Lewis with a fake moustache and glasses.

First game: vs. Illinois, 8:00 p.m. Friday, BTN (UW -20)

Rutgers

Last year: 2-10 (0-9 B1G), no bowl game.

Recap: My favorite extreme athletic competition (other than the Barkley) is the Backyard Ultra.

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At least they get some exercise

The Backyard is an ultra-marathon of sorts in the woods of Middle Tennessee. The premise is simple: participants have an hour to complete a 4.2 mile loop. That’s a leisurely 14 minutes per mile, a pace even novice runners can easily complete. It's a light jog. But one hour after the first lap starts, the second lap starts. Then the third. Then the fourth. When you finish a lap, you have whatever time remains in that hour to recover, eat, nap, fix gear, tend to injuries, or cry. The race continues until only one runner remains. This year’s winner, Courtney Dauwalter, completed 68 laps, totaling 283 miles in just under 3 days.

It is a race without an end. Running a lap faster or slower may be different, but doesn’t make a difference. The only goal is to answer the bell for the next lap. It forces its participants to toe the line, hour after hour, for another lap of punishment, none of which individually is that daunting but which are cumulatively soul-crushing. The reward for finishing each lap? The chance to show up for another lap, this one incrementally worse than the last.

Being a Rutgers football fan is like that. Only with, like, more bees.

When last we saw them: Michigan mercifully put an end to the Chris Ash regime in Piscataway with a 52-0 drubbing. If I may quote from HTTV:

The Scarlet Knights went 8-32 in Ash’s three-plus seasons, including a 3-26 mark in Big Ten play. In those 29 conference games, the average score was 35-10. Rutgers was outgained by an average of 208 yards per game. They were shut out 8 times (by an *average* score of 50-0). They scored 7 or fewer points 16 times. They lost by more than 4 touchdowns 13 times.

Michigan has outscored Rutgers by 222 points in Jim Harbaugh’s 5 seasons.

This team is as frightening as: Watching someone deal with the chafing associated with a 283 mile run. Uncomfortable, but way more uncomfortable for them. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: There is a concept in naval warfare of a “fleet in being.” It was coined in the late 17th century by English Admiral Arthur Herbert. The idea is that your navy may be inferior to that of your opponent, but because your navy exists at all, your opponent must treat it as a threat. He therefore has to be prepared to deploy forces on the assumption that it will eventually leave port.

Arthur Herbert, 1st Earl of Torrington - Wikipedia

Arthur Herbert, 1st Earl of Torrington, 2nd on the depth chart at defensive end for Rutgers.

In this year where literally having a team to bring to the field is a dicey proposition from week to week. As a result, this may be Rutgers’ best chance to not lose to one of the top teams in the Big Ten. Wait until your opponent can't play, take, the field, declare victory, and get the hell off the field before your opponent changes his mind.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: According to SP+, Rutgers would be about a 10 point underdog to the late 17th century British Navy on a neutral ocean.

When they play Michigan: Thump.

First game: @ Michigan State, noon, BTN (RU +12.5)

Penn State

Last year: 11-2 (7-2 B1G), beat Memphis in the Cotton Bowl 53-39

Recap: Penn State had a pretty good, if not overly dominant, season in 2019. They beat the teams they should beat. They survived Night Kinnick and a Type 1-A Pitt Rock Fight. They lost to Ohio State and Minnesota.

When last we saw them: What looked like the fourth straight home team blowout – the score was 21-0 midway through the second quarter – turned into a nailbiter, and the first legitimately competitive game between the two since the clunkfests of 2013 and 2014. Michigan outgained Penn State 417-283, and while Defeat With Dignity isn’t a thing, the second half performance served as a springboard for a throttling of Notre Dame the following week.

This team is as frightening as: A game against a top 10 team with ***NARRATIVES*** on the line. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: This will be the Saturday after Thanksgiving, a day that has, shall we say, not always gone well for the maize and blue.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Three things:

  1. First Team All Universe/sower of destruction/Champion Of The Sun Micah Parsons has opted out for the season; and
  2. Speedy Eaglet Hamler is gone.
  3. Instead of a White Out road game, Michigan gets to play this one at home, albeit in front of a Michigan-State-student-section-on-senior-day-sized crowd.

When they play Michigan: Michigan will be trying to hold Penn State under 300 yards of total offense for the sixth time in the seven seasons since Frames took over in Happy Valley.

First game: @ Indiana, 3:30 p.m., FS1 (PSU -12.5)

Maryland

Last year: 3-9 (1-8 B1G), no bowl game

Recap: Sure, 2020 is llamashit crazy. We know this. But don’t let it distract you from the fact that 2019 brought us a ranked Maryland football team.

Turns out, beating Howard and Syracuse by a combined score of 142-20 does necessarily not portend good things. Turns out, even in those heady early days, this wasn’t an Icarus situation. Maryland was never flying. They were more like Buzz Lightyear: falling with style.

After hitting the charts at #21, the Terps lost 8 of their last 9, getting outscored in the non-Rutgers portion of those games by a combined 389-113. The highlight of the season was a kerfuffle with Ohio State that saw Chase Young get suspended for a game, and saw Maryland defenestrated, carried back into the tower, re-defenestrated, re-carried back into the tower, and re-re-defenestrated.

Now, they lose most of what they had; Josh Jackson, Piggy Pigrome, Max Bortenschlager, Anthony McFarland, Javon Leake, Lorenzo Harrison, Terrance Davis, Antoine Brooks are all gone. And this year, they don’t get to ramp up against a cupcake sche… oh, Northwestern, you say? Ah. Well. Nevertheless.

When last we saw them: The game was tied for 11 seconds. And then Giles Jackson meep meep’d. The game was no longer tied. The rest was largely academic.

This team is as frightening as: English longbowman.

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I pray thee, wish not one man more. Unless y’all got an extra quarterback somewhere.

Able to strike through the air. Basically defenseless. Haven’t been effective in a long time. Waving a rather ridiculous-looking flag.

Related: while the game is scheduled for October 24th, at kickoff it will be October 25th in Northern France, which is the 605th anniversary of the Battle of Agincourt. Historians debate to this day what would have happened if King Henry V had to face Minnesota, Penn State, and Ohio State in the three weeks after St. Crispin’s Day. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Taulia Tagovailoa (YTT) transferred in from Alabama and was granted immediate eligibility, and Maryland has some extremely talented receivers in Dontay Demus and 5-star freshman Rakim Jarrett. They might be able to sling the ball a bit.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Their defense - and especially their pass defense - will probably make the offensive side of the ball irrelevant.

When they play Michigan: A welcome respite between the Penn State game and, uh, whatever comes next.

First game: @ Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., BTN (MD +11)

Ohio State

Last year: 13-1 (9-0 B1G), won B1G, lost to Clemson in CFP semifinal 29-23

Recap: Nope.

When last we saw them: Nuh uh.

This team is as frightening as: Many. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: Did you watch the thing.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I mean at least the Shoe won’t be full.

When they play Michigan: One last hurrah for 2020.

First game: vs. Nebraska, noon, FOX (OSU -26) (Give the points)

Comments

Hab

October 22nd, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^

CRG can finally shut up now.

Physics teaches us that two objects never actually touch, so the refs got this one wrong.

Though I agree, his forward momentum may have been halted.

It forces its participants to toe the line, hour after hour, for another lap of punishment, none of which individually is that daunting but which are cumulatively soul-crushing. The reward for finishing each lap? The chance to show up for another lap, this one incrementally worse than the last.

I can't think of anything more Harbaugh than this.

In conclusion - great as always, and in more ways than one as I tend to learn in an entertaining way various bits of history.  Well done.  Vae Victis

goblue76

October 22nd, 2020 at 10:35 AM ^

Like CRG, I find Opponent Watch being one of my favorite MgoBlog traditions......

I sure hope 10 months from now that damn virus picture is replaced with the old picture....

bronxblue

October 22nd, 2020 at 10:42 AM ^

At this point, what can I say about Michigan State that hasn’t already been said in a sworn deposition?

God, inject this entire post directly into my veins!

Good work, as always.

lsjtre

October 22nd, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^

Well done write up, as always so quotable and I can never find anything specific to talk about because every word is fantastic and so much research done outside of the realm of football, truly amazing and lucky to be able to read your stuff every week of football

1VaBlue1

October 22nd, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^

There's a lot of love in here right now for Oppy Watch!  But even so, CRG is the happiest guy in the room.  Well, he will be whenever he shows up this morning!

4godkingandwol…

October 22nd, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^

Great piece. Lots of chuckles. On top of some of the other ones already noted, I really liked this metaphor for Indiana. 
 

Someone knocking on the door during a pandemic. It’s probably fine. Odds are, it’s something you ordered. But you still want them to go away as quickly as possible, just in case.

 

umfreak

October 22nd, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^

There are no words to express the joy in my heart when I saw Opponent Watch back in business.

I still can't wipe the smile off my face. Incredible stuff as always, BiSB! 

M_Born M_Believer

October 22nd, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^

The funniest thing that will happen this weekend is when Rutgers beats Michigan State.  Simply a prelude to the season for Sparty.  Several of my friends that are Sparty alums have already thrown up the white flag and are wearing brown pants looking at this season.

And I am going to enjoy every single second of it.  Is it poor sportsmanship..... Yeah most likely, but after the several number of times over the past decade I will have zero remorse......

Blueroller

October 22nd, 2020 at 11:41 AM ^

I watch and read the news (I know, it's stupid), fight off despair knowing that I am much better off than the vast majority of humans on this godforsaken planet, and head off existential dread by blasting Warren Zevon ("Send lawyers guns and money/ The shit has hit the fan…")… And then this post comes long and lets me feel for 20 minutes and maybe longer that everything outside of Columbus, Ohio is going to be okay. Thanks as always. I mean:

"Michigan can sleep soundly about: According to SP+, Rutgers would be about a 10 point underdog to the late 17th century British Navy on a neutral ocean."

Balm for troubled times and then some.

Blue Vet

October 22nd, 2020 at 11:54 AM ^

The Island of Dr. Moreau. Quantum physics. Monty Python. The Battle of Agincourt.

EXACTLY what we want in a football posting. Yo, Opponents Watch! Go, MGo!

Chaco

October 22nd, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^

some great laugh out loud moments - this line being one of many "Michigan State, they had the perfect coach, Luke Fickell, lined up to replace him. Unfortunately that coach was unaware of this arrangement and stuck with his current, better job coaching in the AAC."  Welcome back!