About Last Week

Sorry about missing out on last week. Work stuffs again. Feel free to dock my Internet points.

On the bright side…

Michigan wanted to be there. Notre Dame did not.

The Road Ahead

Maryland (3-5, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Indiana, 34-28; Lost at Minnesota, 52-10

Recap: Maryland is creating some separation at the bottom between themselves and the rest of the non-Rutgers Big Ten East.

The Terps are surrendering 6.57 yards per play against B1G opponents, second-worst in the conference. And that includes games against Rutgers, Purdue, and Indiana. They’re giving up an average of 38.4 points in those games. What’s even more disappointing, though, is that the Turtlecoaster is slowly grinding to a halt. The Terps have averaged an unremarkable 6.2, 6.0, and 4.6 yards per play in their last three games.

Now Piggy is hurt, having left the Minnesota game with a left knee injury. Josh Jackson played a series, but clearly wasn’t close to 100% after his nasty ankle injury a few weeks back. So Michigan will either be playing against a hobbled quarterback or redshirt freshman Tyler DeSue.

This team is as frightening as: Turtles. Non-snapping. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Maryland still has a lot of skill position players who can bust big plays; Javon Leake and Tayon Fleet-Davis both had big chunk plays against the Gophers.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: That’s absolutely not going to be enough.

When they play Michigan: This is going to get ugly.

Next game: vs. Michigan, noon, ABC (Maryland +21)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Rage, rage against the dying of the light. Or not. Either way.]

Michigan State (4-4, 2-3 B1G)

Last week: Bye; Lost to Penn State, 28-7

Recap: The numbers don’t really matter anymore.

Make no mistake, the numbers are bad. Really bad. MSU had one of the worst offensive months in recent memory. They scored 5.7 points per game. They gained less than 3.7 yards per play, 127th in the country. They rushed for 60 yards per game at 2.3 yards per carry. They scored 17 points, and lost their three games by an average of 27.6 points. Michigan State hadn’t lost three games by 21 points in a single season since Bobby Williams was roaming the sidelines; they accomplished that task in a month. And that month included a bye.

That’s not the problem though. After all, three straight top-10 teams will do that to a lot of teams. No, the problem is a more fundamental one: they don't seem to want to be there. The fightingest of fighty teams just doesn't seem to have any fight left. For years, even when Michigan State was losing—and even when they were losing a LOT—they were always going to make your life miserable. They were going to make you perform the Shawshank Redemption escape to walk away with the win. But the last eleven quarters have felt decidedly comfortable for Michigan State's opponents. The Penn State game was perhaps the most egregious example: Sparty was playing the team against whom their Sparty Juju had been most successful recently, and they got the rainstorm that ALWAYS signals that a Sparty rochambeau is afoot. And still, nothing. The entire second half was perfunctory, with Penn State largely sauntering around and Michigan State going from Brian Lewerke to Rocky Lombardi to Theo Day to Brian Lewerke to Rocky Lombardi.

Now you've got Dantonio, master of the "we are the gods of our own destiny, and these mortals better gird their loins" has been reduced to yelling at Hondo and finding the solace in the fact that a 4-4 record could mathematically be worse (which… speaking of math… yeah).

This team is as frightening as: A cornered predator that has been tranquilized. It’s possible that it will wake up and absolutely wreck your day… but he’s looking pretty sleepy. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Elijah Collins, despite being almost literally the only running back on the roster, has shown some good burst and an ability to break arm tackles.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This feels like the end.

When they play Michigan: According to Sun Tzu, “Desperate Ground” is ground on which one can “only be saved from destruction by fighting without delay.” His advice: “On Desperate Ground, fight.”

We’ll see if they have any fight left. Because if they don’t, on that day, against that foe, their destruction is inevitable.

Next game: Bye

Indiana (6-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Maryland, 34-28; Won at Nebraska 38-31

Recap: I’m irrationally upset.

You see, Nine Win Indiana Mania is sweeping the nation. Okay, it’s sweeping south-central Indiana. And “sweeping” is too strong a verb. “Dusting” perhaps. Or “wafting.” #9Windiana is wafting through parts of northern south-central Indiana.

[by Seth]

In any case, Indiana currently has six wins four games remaining. Two of those games are against Northwestern and Purdue, so the ninth win would have to come either at Penn State (which feels unlikely) or against Michigan. So when you hear “Indiana could win nine games,” you should hear “we do not respect Michigan, either collectively as a football program or individually as human beings.” And you should be very upset.

Now, this may seem like a silly pretext about which to get Peak-Dantonio-DISRESPEKT-Era upset, it isn’t the pettiest conflict surrounding the Hoosiers at the moment. After Indiana defeated the Huskers on Saturday, Indiana AD Fred Glass (which… sure, we’ll play along. That’s a real name) said that the win was “particularly gratifying, particularly knowing Nebraska’s staff had no respect for our program.” To which everyone responded, “okay yeah, which… huh?”

Well, it turns out that Indiana was upset that Scott Frost was upset that the Big Ten scheduled Michigan and Ohio State as Nebraska’s cross-divisional rivals, and that Indiana barely shows up on the Huskers’ schedule. And yeah, I guess it’s not terribly polite to explicitly say “I’d rather race the short fat guy,” it’s a pretty fair complaint. Ohio State is a terrifying death machine. Michigan beat them 56-10 last year. And Indiana has finished the season at or above .500 exactly once since 1995.

This feels like a “meet me at the flagpole at recess” situation, but no one from the rest of the school shows up to watch because they don’t particularly care and they know the fight won't be that good.

​

It is a big-ass flag pole though

This team is as frightening as: The best Indiana team since Bill Mallory. Fear Level = 6.5

Michigan should worry about: Indiana has the #14 SP+ offense in the country, and is second in the Big Ten at 6.3 yards per play. Stevie Scott is averaging 5.9 yards per carry in conference play, and Michael Penix and Peyton Ramsey are #5 and #6 in the conference in passer rating.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Their last four games have been a loss to Michigan State (in which they gave up 40 points), a win over Rutgers, a six-point win over Maryland, and a seven-point win over Nebraska. They don’t have a single win over a Top-40 team.

When they play Michigan: Y'all don't need me to remind you how this goes.

Next game: vs. Northwestern, 7:00 p.m., FS1 (IU -12.5)

 

Ohio State (8-0, 5-0 B1G)

Last week: Won at Northwestern, 52-3; Beat Wisconsin, 38-7

Recap: No.

This team is as frightening as: Locating the smallest embers of hope when you had already steeled your soul dong for the groin-punt to come. Fear Level = 9.9317

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ohio State has, relatively speaking, struggled out of the gates several times this year:

• They led Indiana 7-3 after one quarter.
• They led Miami (NTM) 7-5 after one quarter
• They led Michigan State 17-10 late shortly before halftime
• They led Northwestern 7-3 after one quarter.
• They led fresh-off-a-loss-to-Illinois Wisconsin 10-7 early in the third quarter

Michigan should worry about: They won those games by an average of 43 points, with a combined score of 251-35.

When they play Michigan: Protect your nuts.

Next game: Bye

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Middle Tennessee State (3-5, 2-2 CUSA)

Last week: Lost at North Texas, 33-30; Beat FIU, 50-17

Giddy Potts scored more points against Michigan State than Michigan State football scored in October. People forget this.

Recap: The state of Tennessee experienced part of the Great Flood this weekend, too, so it’s not terribly surprising Asher O’Hara was held to 6 of 12 passing for 25 yards. What was slightly surprising, though, was that MTSU ran the ball 55 times for 471 yards (8.6 yards per carry) and six touchdowns. The Blue Raiders hadn’t cracked 6 yards per carry or 200 rushing yards against any FBS team this year, but I guess they are like Michigan in that they feel more comfortable in ankle-deep water.

MTSU probably has slightly worse than a 50/50 shot at a bowl game at the moment; they have winnable home games with Rice and Old Dominion, a coin-toss against Charlotte this weekend, and they close at Western Kentucky.

Next game: @ Charlotte, 3:30 p.m.; ESPN3 (MTSU -3)

Army (3-5)

Last week: Lost at Georgia State, 28-21; Lost to San Jose State, 34-29

Recap: It’s a good thing that Michigan seems to have turned things around recently. Now we can start to look at the Army game as a thing that happened to the last mini-iteration of the program, rather than a part of a current slide. Because it’s becoming increasingly clear that Army isn’t a good football team. They had a Vegas preseason over/under of about 9.5 wins, and at this point they’ll be lucky to make a bowl game. They just lost to the #112 team in the country at home, to go along with losses to #87 and #103. Only their pillowy-soft schedule (featuring VMI, Morgan State, UTSA, Rice, and UMass) have kept the prospect of six wins plausible.

Next game: @ Air Force, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN (Army +14)

Wisconsin (6-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Illinois, 24-23; Lost at Ohio State, 38-7

Recap: If you want to be nice to Wisconsin, you can see how both of these things happened. Against Illinois, the Badgers had one of those “stupid teenager ignores all of the warning signs of his impending disemboweling by the escaped serial killer clown until it’s too late” afternoons.

They had plenty of opportunities to put it away, to the point where any audience would be like, “buddy, that’s on you”:

• They were up 10-0 and had the ball at the Illinois 31 in the first half, but turned it over on downs and immediately allowed a long touchdown.
• They led 20-7 late in the third quarter, but missed a 37 yard field goal and immediately allowed a long touchdown.
• They led 23-14 midway through the fourth quarter and Jonathan Taylor had just picked up a first down at the Illini 25, but he fumbled. You’ll never guess what happened. Yup. Long touchdown.
• They led 23-21 with two and a half minutes left, and had a 3rd and 5 near midfield, but Jack Coan threw a brutal interception. Illinois did NOT score a long touchdown. They did, however, kick a short field goal.

They drove down the creepy road and turned down the creepy driveway through the woods and got out amongst the creepy trees and wandered into the creepy barn and opened the creepy sarcophagus-shaped box labeled “CURSED OBJECTS DO NOT OPEN” and read the creepy incantations written on the creepy scroll therein. But really, how could they have known?

The Ohio State game, though, was less “chased by slow, methodical killer while the suspenseful music plays” and more “fast-moving zombies flood over you like a quasi-human wave.” Not much you can do about that one.

Next game: Bye

Rutgers (2-6, 0-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Minnesota, 42-7; Beat Liberty 44-34

Recap:

 

Look, I know it’s been a rough patch in the Big Ten. They’ve lost 17 conference games in a row. They are averaging 3.4 yards per pass in conference play this year, which is somehow worse than their 4.3 YPA in conference play last year. They’ve been outscored 207-14 in conference play.

But for one week, Rutgers was non-embarrassing. Heck, they were borderline mediocre. Despite being a seven-point underdog to Liberty and trailing for much of the first half, they scored 17 third-quarter points to pull away. They rushed for 271 yards, their most against an FBS team since 2015. Johnny Langan’s 9.1 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT performance gave Rutgers their best passer rating since 2015, and added 118 yards on the ground to boot.

The bad news is that win #3 looks like it might be tricky, with Illinois looking like a dang bowl team. Current RutgerQuest status (winless in conference play, scoring ratio of 6.3%) would make them the worst team in Big Ten history. And they still have games at Ohio State and Penn State left to play. But they beat Liberty. And that is something. Technically.

Next game: at Illinois, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Rutgers +20.5)

Iowa (6-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Purdue, 26-20; Won at Northwestern, 20-0

Recap: I refuse to discuss this.

Next game: Bye

Illinois (4-4, 2-3 B1G)

Last week: Beat Wisconsin, 24-23; Won at Purdue, 24-6

Recap: Let’s check in with poor Lovie Smith…

I know “Illinois’s season has been a lot like Michigan’s season” is the kind of take that makes Michigan fans want to drink heavily, but think about it: a couple of rough early games against weak opponents (lost to EMU, beat UConn by 4) , a disheartening blowout on the road (lost by 23 to Minnesota), got down big against a ranked opponent, but fought back admirably (vs. Michigan), and then laid a signature win at home against a top 10 team.

Now, Illinois needs 2 wins to make a bowl game, and still has home games against Rutgers and Northwestern. Assuming that happened, if you’re the Illini administration, what do you do? The Illini have less talent on the field than practically any other non-New Jersey team in the Big Ten, and their recruiting has pretty much guaranteed that it will remain the case going forward. And while beating Wisconsin is great, how predictive of future success is a bowl appearance going to be if the other five wins are over Akron, UConn, post-apocalypse Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern? At some point, you run the risk of getting stuck in that just-barely-too-good-to-fire loop. The Addazio Zone, if you will.

But if you make the move, you could also end up with another Tim Beckman. And oh, how this article misses Tim Beckman.

Next game: vs. Rutgers, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Illinois -20.5)

Penn State (8-0, 5-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Michigan, 28-21; Won at Michigan State, 28-7

Recap: KJ Hamler is fast.

Next game: Bye