Opponent Watch 2014: Week 8 Comment Count

BiSB

About Last Week:

There was no football last week.

Unfortunately, that is not the case this week.

F*** you, calendar. F*** you.

The Road Ahead:

Michigan State (6-1, 3-0 B1G)

Last game: Won at Indiana, 56-17

Recap: Indiana led this game 17-14 in the second quarter. Which felt like this moment in just about all respects:

Doggie Bag

Eh?

Fight scene notwithstanding, this one was largely the comedy it was supposed to be. True freshman Zander Diamont completed 5 of 15 passes for 11 yards. Of his five completions, two went for positive yardage (through three quarters, he was actually throwing for negative yardage). Overall, he put up -1 yards of total offense. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before. But he survived, so, yay?

As has been happening with shocking frequency this year, MSU did give up a couple of really big plays. Tevin Coleman rumbled for 65 yards on a simple read option because (a) Ed Davis completely overran the play, and (b) RJ Williamson got distracted by a pretty butterfly and just kinda ran the wrong direction. Then Shane Wynn took a reverse 75 yards for a touchdown which should have been a 10 yard gain, but Kurtis Drummond and Ed Davis took terrible angles, and then it REALLY should have been a 25 yard gain if the 5’7”, 167 pound Shane Wynn didn’t bust through the combined masses of Trae Waynes, Ed Davis, and Montae Nicholson.

Wynn1Wynn2Wynn3

5’7”, 167 vs. 18’6”, 633 pounds. F*** YOU, physics. Inelastic collisions all up in this motha.

This team is as frightening as: The absolute and complete lack of uncertainty associated with this game. It's as if I can actually see the blue troops in one long bloody moment. As if it were already done. Already a memory. An odd, set, stony quality to it. As if tomorrow has already happened. And there's nothing you can do about it. Fear Level = 0. Resignation Level = 11

Michigan should worry about: Yes.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: No.

When they play Michigan:

Eighty yards, Eighty yards,

Eighty yards onward,

All in the valley of Sparty

Rode the Ninety Eight.

"Forward, the Maize and Blue!

"Charge for Paul Bunyan!" he said:

Into the valley of Sparty

Rode the Ninety Eight.

"Forward, the Maize and Blue!"

Was there a fan dismay'd?

Not tho' the Devin knew

Hoke had blunder'd:

His not to make reply,

His not to reason why,

His but to manball and die:

Into the valley of Sparty

Rode the Ninety Eight.

Calhoun to right of him,

Rush to left of him,

Davis in front of him

Pressure'd and blitz'd;

Storm'd at with SAM and MIKE,

Boldly he dropped back at the “Hike”,

Into the 4-3 Over fell,

Into the mouth of Hell,

Rode the Ninety Eight.

Scramble’d all his waggles bare,

Pulling guards they turn'd in air,

Inverted Veers he did run there,

Reading the D-End, while

All the fans wonder'd:

Seven step drops as told by Hoke,

Right thro' the line they broke;

Devin reel'd from the blind side stroke

Shatter'd and sunder'd.

Then he again huddled up

Did the Ninety Eight.

Calhoun to right of him,

Rush to left of him,

Davis in front of him

Pressure'd and blitz'd;

Storm'd at with MIKE and WILL,

Tho there were so many in his grill,

He who kept lining up until

The clock so mercifully Sparty killed

Back from the mouth of Hell,

All that was left of him,

Left of Ninety Eight.

When can his glory fade?

O the wild plays he made!

All the world wondered.

Honour the way he played,

Honour Those Who Stayed,

Noble Ninety Eight.

Next game: vs. Michigan (MSU -17), 3:30 Saturday, ABC

[AFTER THE JUMP: Less Tennyson. Same ennui]

Indiana (3-4, 0-3 B1G)

Doug McSchooler Indy Star

Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman.  (Doug McSchooler/Indy Star)

Last game: Lost to Michigan State, 56-17

Recap: As suggested here last week, Tevin Coleman = good, and (Indiana – Tevin Coleman) = not good. Coleman rushed for 132 yards on 15 carries. Even excluding his 65 yarder (which you really shouldn’t do, because, like , those yards count), he finished at 4.8 yards per carry.

I’m not a football coach, but I’d like to float something. Your star running back is averaging over 8 yards per touch. He gets 17 touches. Your quarterback is averaging LESS THAN ZERO yards per rushing attempt/pass attempt. He gets 25 rushes/passing attempts. This seems like a poor allocation of resources.

Defensively, Indiana hasn’t held a conference opponent under 35 points in the last 10 games. In that span, they have surrendered fewer than 470 yards only once. They haven’t won a road conference game since October of 2012. And, again, they are starting (essentially) a 5th string true freshman quarterback who has yet to finish a game with positive net yardage. Michigan SHOULD beat this team.

This team is as frightening as: the knowledge that all of the previous paragraph is true, and still feeling the need to add the word “should,” and wondering if the word “should” contained sufficient wiggle room. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: Tevin Coleman.

Tevin Coleman. Tevin. Coleman. Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman. Coleman Tevin. Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman. Kevin Toleman. Tevin Coleman. Tevin Coleman. Clevin Toeman. Tevin Coleman. TevinColemanTevinColemanTevinColeman. Tevin Coleman.

You know how sometimes when you see a word enough times it stops looking like a word? “Tevin” is starting to seem pretty suspect right about now.

Tevin Coleman.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: There is a good chance that the Indiana will be an easier game than the Michigan State game.

When they play Michigan: Damn this would be a GREAT game to be able to play single press-man coverage on the outside and jam the box with as many human beings as possible.

Oh well.

Next game: Bye

Northwestern (4-3, 2-2 B1G)

Last game: Lost to Nebraska, 38-17

Recap: On the bright side, they didn’t lose on a Fat Guy Hail Mary this year.

Northwestern turned a 17-14 halftime lead into a 38-17 getting-throttled. The Wildcats ran only 26 plays on six 2nd half drives. Their longest drive after the break was 15 yards. They didn’t cross midfield in the second half. Trevor Siemian threw for 25 yards at 2.3 yards per attempt in the second half. They surrendered 24 points on five second half drives (not including the kneel-down drive). They… you know what, let’s just stipulate that the second half was a clown show and move on with life.

Justin Jackson continues to be effective, but Northwestern may or may not realize that. In the first 40 minutes, Jackson had 19 carries for 111 yards (5.8 ypc), and was quite good. He keyed both touchdown drives and scored both touchdowns. But once Northwestern went down 21-17 midway through the third quarter, they OMG FREAKED OUT and stopped running the ball. Jackson only got three carries from that point on, and only one in the fourth quarter.

Some teams feel like throwing the ball is the only way to get “back in the game,” even when they are putting up more yards per carry than they are yards per passing attempt. And of course, as we know, some teams feel like you have to continue to bash the ball into the line because it’s your “identity.” In summary, some teams are incontrovertibly stupid.

This team is as frightening as: Memories of last year's Northwestern game. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Michigan only has 6 plays of 30+ yards, which is 124th in the country.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern only has 3 plays of 30+ yards, which is dead last (128th) in the country. They have also had only 20 plays of 20+ yards, which is tied for 120th and ahead of only six teams.

When they play Michigan: A cow-rubbing fest completely devoid of any explosiveness of any kind.

BIG TENNNNN.

Next game: Bye

Maryland (5-2, 2-1 B1G)

Last game: Beat Iowa, 38-31

Recap: The evidence is in, and CJ Brown is a zombie. He’s a 6th year Senior who has already injured everything possible, so when he took a wicked shot in the back and walked off the field like this...

Walking Dead

…you might assume he might finally be dead. And with backup Caleb Rowe out with a torn ACL, Maryland looked, as they say in remote areas of Micronesia, really damn screwed. And yet, like a somewhat inconsistent and inaccurate phoenix, Brown returned to lead Maryland to a seven point win over the Fightin’ Puntasaurs.

Resurrection notwithstanding, Brown has really slowed down (as zombies are wont to do). In his last two games against Ohio State and Iowa, Brown has thrown for under 4.7 yards per attempt with no TDs and 3 INTs. This may be a Gardner-esque race between the schedule and the rate of decay of a human torso that is regularly tenderized.

This team is as frightening as: Snapping turtles. Ill-tempered snapping turtles. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Stefon Diggs. He leads the conference in receptions with 45, and has scored touchdowns in four of his last five games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: The Maryland run defense. Despite being pretty highly regarded coming into the season, they are 81st in the country in yards per carry allowed (sack-adjusted).

When they play Michigan:Worst. Senior Day. EVER.

Next game: at Wisconsin (MD +11.5), 12:00 Saturday

Ohio State (5-1, 2-0 B1G)

Bosa shrug

I don’t know either, Joey. But whatever you decide, I agree. Please don’t hurt me. (Brooke Lavalley/Columbus Dispatch)

Last game: Beat Rutgers, 56-17

Recap: That was unpleasant. Ohio State was up 49-7 less than halfway through the 3rd quarter before KINDA calling off the dogs.

Let’s not talk any more about this one for the moment. One vastly superior rival at a time, please.

This team is as frightening as:A team that has put up 50+ points in four straight games. Opponent caveats notwithstanding, that is many points. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about:Did you read the part about the 50+ points?

Michigan can sleep soundly about:They DID lose to Virginia Tech. Who, as it turns out, is terrible (they just got blown out by Miami last night).

When they play Michigan: All good things must come to an end. Fortunately, so must all bad things.

Next game: at Penn State (OSU -13.5), 8:00 Saturday, ABC

 

Objects in the rearview mirror:

Appalachian State (2-5, 1-2 Sun Belt)

Last game: Won at Troy, 53-14

Recap: That’s about as embarrassing as it gets for the Troy Trojans of Troy (We’re Troy!). Losing at home to App State by that margin. It doesn’t make it any better that App State put up those totals by rushing for 441 yards. But when you can force a fumble, recover the fumble, and STILL give up points on the play… Troy, it ain’t your night.

Next game: Bye

Notre Dame (6-1)

Last game: Lost at Florida State, 31-27

Recap: It is difficult to watch a football game while actively cheering against both teams. Even for those of us nominally rooting for Notre Dame, I felt a little like a resident of Tokyo and being like “uh, yay Godzilla, maybe?”

That said, there was a game this weekend, so let’s just cut right to it: it was a good call.

Rule 7.3.8.b states:

Offensive pass interference by a team A player beyond the neutral zone during a legal forward pass play in which a forward pass crosses the neutral zone is contact that interferes with a team b eligible player. It is the responsibility of the offensive player to avoid the opponents.

Yeah no

Prosise is beyond the neutral zone. This is a legal forward pass play. The ball is thrown beyond the neutral zone. Prosise engages in (and actively maintains) contact that interferes with an FSU defender. He has an obligation to avoid or disengage from the defender, and he very clearly doesn’t do so. That’s interference.

It doesn’t MATTER that the defender initiated contact with a jam. The defender’s contact is legal. It’d be like saying “the left tackle didn’t hold the defensive end because the defensive end bull-rushed HIM.” It doesn’t matter that there’s no earthly way that the defender gets to Robinson in time to break that pass up. And it doesn’t matter that it isn’t called very often. In addition to being technically a violation of the rules, this was a particularly egregious, obvious violation of the rules.

And please, PLEASE don’t give me the “you don’t want the refs to decide the game” crap. That argument literally translates to “the refs should not have accurately interpreted and enforced the rules because of the circumstances.” Refs are a part of the game. RULES are a part of the game. What you don’t want is refs screwing up a call either way. If the ref throws the flag on a 50/50 call, that is no more him “deciding the game” than it is if he swallows the flag. If your argument is “it was the correct call but shouldn’t have been made,” you must now return to your residence, locate and secure your shine box, and return forthwith.

Next game: Bye

Miami (NTM) (1-7, 1-3 MAC)

Last game: Lost at Northern Illinois, 51-41

Recap: Miami’s was not able to come home with its second win since the Hoover Administration*, but they seem to have turned a bit of a corner (or at least angled the nose of the plane slightly away from the mountain). After losing 12 of their previous 15 games by more than 10 points, they have kept their last 5 margins to 10 points or fewer (with, again, a win mixed in for good measure).

* citation needed

Next game: vs. Kent State (M(NTM) -6. Seriously. Cumong, Kent State, get your shit together), 2:30 Saturday, ESPN3

Utah (5-1, 2-1 PAC-12)

Last game: Won at Oregon State, 29-23 (2OT)

Recap: Utah’s Michigan-Redemption-By-Proxy Tour continues, with the Utes knocking off the 4-1 Beavers. Devontae Booker ran for 229 yards on 32 carries with three touchdowns, including two in overtime. That was enough to overcome a combined 9-of-18 for 62 yards from Travis Wilson and Kendal Thompson.

Michigan’s performance against Utah’s running game is looking even more impressive in hindsight. Utah has rushed for at least 192 yards and at least 4.4 yards per carry against everyone but Michigan, against whom they put up 81 yards at 2.2 yards per carry.  /waives tiny flag

Next game: vs. USC (Utah +1.5), 10:00 Saturday, Fox Sports 1

Minnesota (6-1, 3-0 B1G)

MooCobb

Moooooooooooooo (Jesse Johnson/USA TODAY Sports)

Last game: Beat Purdue, 39-38

Recap: Minnesota surrendered 298 yards rushing at 8.51 yards per carry. That is the second time this century Purdue has rushed for more than 8.5 yards per carry. The only other time they did that since Y2K was a thing was against Eastern Michigan two years ago. I remind you that Michigan put up 2.96 yards per carry against them.

David Cobb continues to be a full-on bell cow. He has 189 carries through seven games, and only one other back has more than 135 carries (Ameer Abdullah has 161). He’s had 30+ carries in his last four games.

Next game: at Illinois (MN -6.5), 12:00 Saturday, ESPNU

Rutgers (5-2, 1-2 B1G)

Last game: Lost at Ohio State, 56-17

Recap: Rutgers still sucks. Rutgers still beat Michigan. Transitive property of football is unkind.

Next game: at Nebraska (RU +17), 12:00 Saturday, ESPN2

Penn State (4-2, 1-2 B1G)

Last game: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

Next game: vs. Ohio State (PSU +13.5), 8:00 Saturday, ABC

Comments

rainking

October 24th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^

but i think tomorrow is closer than people think. NO ONE thinks UM will even be in this thing, and to me that's a good thing. I think UM loses, but goes down swinging and it's close. I just have a feeling about it.

Moe

October 24th, 2014 at 10:52 AM ^

State has been trending downward for the last few weeks.  This isn't the team that was all over Oregon in the first half.  I think this is the week our TO margain finally is on the plus side, and our offense does enough to make the game close.  Not necessairly a win, but a respectable game.

imdwalrus

October 24th, 2014 at 10:55 AM ^

...and I think everyone making comments like this is delusional. What POSSIBLE evidence has this team given us to think that they can compete with, let alone beat, an MSU that's not only Top 10, but much more emotionally invested in the game as they always are?

"Rivalry game" and "anyone can win" are tropes that sound great but when that's literally the only way you can claim optimism...

bronxblue

October 24th, 2014 at 10:43 AM ^

Great poem.

It is weird to look back at the teams Michigan lost to and see some pretty good clubs.  Not saying UM is great by any means, but outside of Rutgers getting blitzed by OSU all the teams feel like varying shades of good+.

Don

October 24th, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^

if it happens, this score will have the same effect on the coach on the losing end as it did back the last time this score occurred. The only difference is that the loser this time won't be let go until the end of the season.

michgoblue

October 24th, 2014 at 10:55 AM ^

I know that everyone is predicting DOOM! tomorrow, but I am still holding our hope that we come out swinging and have a real chance to win the game. 

I hate reading that pretty much everyone has written us off.  Upsets happen all the time, especially when one team is feeling a bit overconfident based upon its success and the other team is playing for its season (yes, we have become Sparty in this rivalry, but I digress). 

Is it likely that we win?  No, but I am not dreading this game as much as most on this blog.  Either (1) we win, which would be F'ing awesome!, or (2) we lose pretty badly, likely sealing Hoke's fate (which, while I am rooting hard for a win, would not be a horrible outcome anyway).

Skapanza

October 24th, 2014 at 11:25 AM ^

+10000000 for the Blue rendition of "Charge of the Light Brigade".

We looked at this a couple weeks ago in my classes when teaching about the evolution of warfare tech and tactics as we head towards WWI.

Amaizing Blue

October 24th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^

Custer:  "I will yell  "Attack" , and we'll all break out of the crate and attack them!"

Sacajewea (sp):  "Won't yelling "Attack" warn them that we are going to, you know, attack?"

Custer:  "Derp".  

*Not direct quotations from Night at the Museum 2.

You Only Live Twice

October 24th, 2014 at 11:35 AM ^

Listened to Sam.

Did not listen to Huge.  Guy obviously loves MSU and his advanced fawning was hard to take.  Had to turn him off. 

ann.arbor.lover

October 24th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^

Now THAT was truly poetic. Yes it is a poem which rhymes. But it is actually POETIC.

It's like one of those classic samurai movies. You die at the end, but you die with cherry blossoms and a smile on your face. And the dagger was almost painless.

Here's to a march toward the abyss, the tranquil east landfill, and a beautiful death. 41-3 MSU.

The FannMan

October 24th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^

This column continues to be the best thing on the blog.  (I mean that not as a put down to others, but as a true compliment to BiSB.)

The war - football analogy suffers from some obvious faults, but that is the feeling isn't it?  Michigan is charging forward toward certain defeat, but hoping for some kind of miracle because orders are orders and sometimes miracles happen.  However, probably not here.  Yep, we're all good and screwed.

AZ-Blue

October 24th, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^

Miracles can happen.  Brandon, in one last-ditch effort to save his job in the face of a likely MSU rout, could airlift "the Rock" from Washtenaw and drop it on the MSU defensive line on their first play.  A Hiroshima of sorts.  Does that work as a military analogy?

Seth

October 24th, 2014 at 4:55 PM ^

I found a way to get us more tiny flags. There were banners of Big Ten West teams all around Michigan Stadium so i ran up there and grabbed them. Maybe Wisconsin will complain in like 20 years when they visit next but who thinks there will be a Big Ten or football or a world in 20 years?

So: we have tiny flags again. Tiny flag shortage over. Sorry some of them are purple.

ILL_Legel

October 24th, 2014 at 9:34 PM ^

When I read Tevin Coleman, my brain translates to Tevin Campbell. Then, I remember I am old for thinking of Tevin Campbell. That kid could sing though.