2/18/2021 – Michigan 71, Rutgers 64 – 15-1, 10-1 Big Ten

Here's a famous tweet.

I...worked on this story for a year...and...he just...he tweeted it out.

— Jared Yates Sexton (@JYSexton) July 11, 2017

This is how your author felt when last night's broadcast began with the announcers relaying Steve Pikiell's take on the game, which was "we're going to jack up a bunch of heavily contested off-the-dribble twos and see how it goes." The announcers said it a little differently, leaving out the heavily contested jacks so they could euphemistically refer to this behavior as "shooting in the midrange."

There's midrange and then there's midrange. There's Franz Wagner midrange where he's using his crazy gumby arms to get up layups from outside the paint, and there's Rutgers midrange that comes from just inside the three-point line with several angry gnomes climbing all over the shooter. When those latter go down at the rate they did in the first ten minutes of the game there's a lot of heavy sighing and maybe the occasional "cumong!" uttered.

To be fair to Rutgers, they did repeatedly attack the basket. Since Michigan is the king of drop coverage and Rutgers is Rutgers these attacks often felt like assaults designed to destroy the rim for unspeakable crimes rather than genuine attempts to score. When the dust cleared, Rutgers had identical marks both at and away from the rim: 11/25.  One of those numbers is really good, considering the circumstances. The other is not really good.

Throw in a near-total lack of threes and the result: 0.98 points per possession despite turning the ball over just three times. That was the best-case scenario for Rutgers, give or take a transition miss, and they did not quite hit a point per possession. This is life in the midrange salt mines.

Hearing one of the better coaches in the Big Ten resign himself to those mines was a bit of a jarring experience. But if you're signing up for the Rutgers job and succeed there you have to have a pretty clear-eyed view of things. That's what Rutgers had to do, and but for a couple meaningless threes in the last minute it got them what it's gotten nearly everyone except Minnesota (and, uh, Penn State): a double-digit loss.

[After THE JUMP: Franz rises, Dickinson recedes]

BULLETS

a little late but coming along [Campredon]

Franz PNR action. The Kobe assist thing worked out a little differently than I thought it might; instead of grabbing offensive rebounds off of misses at the rim, Wagner drew Johnson over on pick and roll before providing last second wrap-around passes reminiscent of Darius Morris setting up Jordan Morgan with the passing angles his 6'5" frame gave him.

Wagner set up all of Michigan's dunks.

Ace mentioned Franz's pick and roll upside around this time last year:

Although the sample size is merely 30 possessions, Franz Wagner has flashed an elite ability to score off the screen—he's over 1.1 points per possession when no other Wolverine cracks 0.9. He's passing about half the time with efficiency that approaches Simpson's. What's most impressive about the scoring is it's mostly come on drives; if Wagner adds a pull-up three-pointer he'll be absolutely lethal. Think a longer Nik Stauskas. Try not to drool.

Michigan's pick and roll numbers on Synergy are mediocre at best but the sample sizes here are pretty small. Wagner's had 56 PNR possessions, 36 of which have ended in his own shots. Apparently PNR ballhandler offense is pretty inefficient because he's at 0.78 PPP and that's 59th percentile. (Oddly, the guy who scores out of PNR best in the Big Ten is Eric Ayala.)

The other 20 possessions are passes that are split evenly between roll guys/cutters and guys spotting up. PPP for the former: 1.6. PPP for the latter: 0. Michigan has missed all ten of its spot-up opportunities after Wagner passes out of PNR. That's a fluke that's holding down his numbers there.

Further exploration of this method of offense is warranted.

Also in Franz. He did not have a block, so his five-game streak of having at least one block and one steal came to an end. Alas. On the other hand, 20 points on 13 shot equivalents and a Kenpom MVP performance. His floater from behind the backboard to end the first half is Michigan's HORSE shot of the year.

a rare occurrence in this one [Campredon]

It could be said that Hunter Dickinson is in a bit of a slump. Dickinson was 4/10 from the floor, which is his fourth consecutive game of shooting under 50% from two. He's 11/28 over that span, and since he had five turnovers against Minnesota he's only scraped into triple digits in ORTGs once in the last five—the 11 point, 5 OREB outing versus Wisconsin.

Meanwhile two of Dickinson's makes were dunks set up by Wagner, so the only buckets he generated himself were the pair at the end of the first half. He seems to be suffering from scouting report blues now that he's the first guy on the opposition sheet. I do think that Myles Johnson may be the best defensive center in the league—and Omoruyi is no slouch himself—so you can grade this performance on a curve.

Would be really nice to see Dickinson put up one of those 8/12 games sometime soon, but it looks like opponents are going to double him into oblivion in the hopes Michigan has a bad shooting night. The only team to manage that lately has been Minnesota. Michigan's shot 40%+ from 3 in six of their last eight, with the Gopher games the exception. This neatly coincides with the heavy post doubling opponent teams have been doing.

Livers block party. Livers made up for the usual Wagner block and then some with three wipeout blocks on shots that looked like they were surely going to be bunnies.

Unfortunately two of those ended up going right to Rutgers players and resulted in five points for the Cable Subscribers. At least this is the first time this year we're complaining about that—last year it felt like a blocked shot was an assist for the opposition's inevitable putback.

A taste of Michigan's zone medicine. Rutgers mixed in 2-3 zone possessions sporadically and effectively. Pikiell went to it right out of the gate in the second half, which led to an ugly possession. That seemed particularly smart because Howard's come out of the locker room with sets for easy buckets frequently this season.

Like Michigan, Rutgers didn't stick with zone for long so there was no improvement after an adjustment period.

You can't foul someone with your face! Mike Smith got blasted by an elbow for the second consecutive game, and for the second straight game that resulted in free throws for the opposition. Here it was because Smith was inexplicably hit with a blocking call while getting blasted in the chops.

At least this one was a legitimate basketball play. Down the road, Brad Davison seems to be getting frustrated with Wisconsin's season:

Huh. Would ya look at that. pic.twitter.com/U4mhHUlE3o

— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) February 19, 2021

Davison naturally missed the shot; he's now shooting a cool 10/50 in Big Ten play. Repeal the COVID bonus year for one man only.

Also in complaining about block calls. Surely this should have been a no call:

Dickinson is stationary and outside the circle. Harper hits him obliquely so I get why it's not a charge but if you can't stand in one place and have someone run into you without getting called for a foul I don't know man.

Juwan Howard's dad power waxes. Three events in this game. One was leaping from the sideline to help Mike Smith up after he got fouled on a three-pointer, which broke the nearest official's stoic demeanor. The second:

I missed some stuff https://t.co/7CBrJIJp5G pic.twitter.com/uMEKneA6Vy

— Patrick Barron (@BlueBarronPhoto) February 19, 2021

This was not during play, but I'm not putting it past him. Do it against Michigan State, when the coaches' box is a rumor.

The third:

Howard calls out an offensive play called “Toledo.”

Rutgers’ Mulachy yells out “Running Toledo!”

Howard: “Hey, you don’t know that play!”

— Mike Mulholland (@mulho2mj) February 19, 2021

Wha happen? Michigan was cruising with 19 points in the first eight minutes of the second half, and then had seven straight empty possessions. It was a relatively grim period, albeit one offset by the fact that Rutgers only scored five points during it. The possessions in there:

1. Wagner executes another wrap-around pass but Dickinson gets it stripped going up; Omoruyi steps OOB on the rebound. This does not register as a completed possession on Kenpom. Omoruyi then erases a Brandon Johns fadeaway 10-footer.
2. 2-3 zone. Johns clips Harper with an elbow while trying to post up, offensive foul.
3. 2-3 zone. Livers misses a catch and shoot 3 with a reasonable contest.
4. Chaundee Brown fumbles a perimeter pass OOB.
5. Dickinson gets deep post position against Mulcahy but either gets fouled without a call or just loses it going up.
6. Dickinson gets a high post entry from the baseline and travels as he expects heavier contact from Omoruyi than he gets.
7. Wagner gets a somewhat chintzy offensive foul on a possession that's stuck outside the three point line without an active action with 8 seconds on the clock.

That might be layoff rust, it might be just a thing. One thing it wasn't was a long series of offensive possessions on which Michigan couldn't find good shots. A series of individual mistakes is frustrating but it's not as alarming, long-term, as an inability to run offense and get good looks. That's not, you know, likely given what we've seen this season but we're all looking for flaws in the aftermath of the layoff.

Shooting a few weird shots. If we're searching for COVID hangovers it may be in here. Eli Brooks had a wide array of weird decisions leading to iffy shots against Wisconsin. In this game you had Wagner shooting from the logo early in one shot clock and Smith taking a pull-up long two with two minutes left, Michigan up double digits, and 20+ seconds on the shot clock.

I think Franz may have heard about his.

Franz Wagner on Juwan Howard's coaching: "He's gonna tell you when you fuck up. Sorry, excuse my French. ... You always know where you stand with him."

— Daniel Dash (@DanielDash_) February 19, 2021

I love the German guy saying "excuse my French" to disclaim the F-bomb he just dropped in English. That's a whole Europa Universalis game right there.

FFS. This seems like it has a chance to tank the entire tournament:

The NCAA will allow a limited number of fans at the 2021 Division I Men’s Basketball Championship, including all rounds and the Final Four. The decision to allow up to 25% capacity with physical distancing was made in conjunction with state and local health authorities due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The cost/benefit there seems way out of whack even from a coldly financial standpoint.

Alright alright alright. Michigan is the best team in the BEST LEAGUE EVER*:

Wild that the Big Ten’s so historically mighty despite MSU’s worst season in 25 years pic.twitter.com/BhwYPG6TGc

— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) February 19, 2021

The Best League Ever thing is helped out by a paucity of nonconference games, which make for swingier results. But still!

*[Kenpom era]

no [Campredon]

Omoruyi: possibly a problem. Cliff Omoruyi doesn't do much on offense but the 1-2 punch Rutgers has at center is probably the best defensive setup in the league at that position. He blocked three shots in this game, all of them authoritatively, and it looks like he's got the athleticism to switch relatively comfortably. I predict some All-Defense selections in his future.