Death By Variety: The Statistical View

I couldn't stay away from this topic, even after taking a look at Michigan's excellent pick-and-roll stats in last week's column. If you missed that, the main takeaway is that Michigan has the best combination of usage and efficiency on pick-and-rolls in the country:

Anyway: holy hell, Michigan's pick-and-roll offense. It's not just that they're the most efficient in the conference by a decent margin, they're also running it way more than the rest. The Wolverines are 12th in the country in efficiency and 11th in usage for pick-and-roll possessions. The only other major conference teams that have a comparable combination of usage and efficiency are Marquette and Seton Hall, and neither quite measure up.

I also touched on Zavier Simpson's remarkable acumen at running the pick-and-roll, something I'll get into more later in this column. Simpson isn't the only player making this work so well, however. After doing more digging into Synergy, it's fair to say Michigan has five legitimately good options as ballhandlers, and they each bring something a little different to the table.

Today I'm going to take a look at how Michigan is making that play work so well this season and how their lead ballhandlers stack up statistically against this year's competition. Tomorrow I'll put this year's pick-and-roll offense into a historical context.

sneaky good [Campredon]

Here's a look at the five players on pick-and-roll plays with passes included. I've separated out when the ballhandler keeps the ball (or turns it over) from when they pass it and added a "keep percentage" stat to what Synergy already had to offer:

Simpson, as you'd expect, mostly looks to pass and is the best on the team when he does; while he's not a huge threat to score, he does just enough to keep defenses honest and open up passing lanes.

While not as extreme as Simpson, Eli Brooks and David DeJulius both look to pass more than shoot, which is always good with point guards—passing out of the pick-and-roll is more efficient on average than keeping it because the latter usually implies sound defense. DeJulius has also been quite effective when he looks to score; he's on track to be the lead guard next season.

Although the sample size is merely 30 possessions, Franz Wagner has flashed an elite ability to score off the screen—he's over 1.1 points per possession when no other Wolverine cracks 0.9. He's passing about half the time with efficiency that approaches Simpson's. What's most impressive about the scoring is it's mostly come on drives; if Wagner adds a pull-up three-pointer he'll be absolutely lethal. Think a longer Nik Stauskas. Try not to drool.

While not in Wagner's territory, Isaiah Livers has been a solid option as a pick-and-roll scorer. He doesn't look to pass as much but he's on this team to get buckets.

[Hit THE JUMP for moving picture pages and how M's ballhandlers stack up against the Big Ten.]

Death By Variety: The Moving Picture Pages

yep, also good at this [Campredon]

Against Purdue on Saturday, Juwan Howard and his charges put on a clinic in how to run the pick-and-roll in a variety of ways and with a variety of players to keep the defense off guard. Here they initiate with pistol action (the running handoff) and go into a double drag screen with Simpson as the ballhandler using Jon Teske and Wagner as screeers. Teske rolls and Wagner pops with an evil added wrinkle:

Since Teske's man hedged on Simpson and Simpson's man went over the screen to recover, Teske sealed off Wagner's defender in the paint, making it impossible to recover on Wagner.

Now here's something completely different—a middle ball screen with Eli Brooks and Austin Davis. Brooks initially takes the screen before crossing back over and Davis does a great job of sealing off a path to the rim:

This next time, it's Wagner who runs the middle screen. He takes the screen, waits for the defense to commit, and makes a great read to swing it back to Livers for a three-pointer:

On this next one, DeJulius and Teske run a high side ball screen in transition. DDJ displays patience worthy of sainthood, allowing Teske to establish post position before finding him for an and-one finish in the restricted area:

DeJulius is really improving as a lead guard. On the next Michigan possession, he used a crossover to smoothly step into a pull-up three when his man ducked under a Teske screen. He later set up a Brandon Johns driving layup by breaking down the defense when he rejected a screen and made a decisive pass to the corner as Purdue collapsed on him.

I loved this wrinkle on the double drag, which begins with the exact same pistol setup as the first play in this section. Instead of using a Wagner or Livers as the second screener like usual, Brooks takes that role, but instead of the usual pick-and-pop he slips the screen and bolts to the corner. As DDJ takes the screen and Teske draws extra attention in the post, Brooks slides into position for a quick pass, draws both of Teske's defenders with a strong drive, and drops it off to the big man for a short jumper:

The next clip features a small wrinkle to the standard high side ball screen. As Simpson initiates the play up top, Brooks comes from the bottom of the screen to get in the way of Teske's man, which forces him to take a circuitous route to the play. That doesn't matter as much as what Brooks's movement does to the rest of the defense. When I first watched this play I found it to be an inexcusable breakdown:

That's not quite the case because of the added action. Brooks overloads the far side of the court with Brandon Johns, who shifts from the corner, and I believe that action causes the breakdown among the two Purdue defenders underneath the basket—one is supposed to get out to Brooks/Johns while the other stays home to guard Teske on the roll and instead both break for the perimeter.

You may note that all the plays embedded or linked above occurred in the first half of a single basketball game. Purdue has a good defense, particularly when Matt Haarms is on the floor, but no matter who was out there they were overwhelmed by the variety.

While the second half didn't have as much pick-and-roll action because of the extended late-game foulfest, we got a couple great possessions from Wagner. First, Wagner showed patience and good instincts on a side pick-and-roll with Davis, albeit helped by some luck. As Wagner dribbles in place before stepping back to set up Davis's roll, his man falls over, and Haarms (Davis's defender) has to step out to prevent a wide open three. Wagner could still get that shot off; instead, he chooses a slick lob pass to Davis for an easy finish:

Wagner's pivoting finish also came off a quick Davis screen-and-roll out of a baseline inbounds play, another variation on the standard.

This is all from one game on the road against a quality opponent. Only one clip features the best pick-and-roll ballhandler in college basketball. It's not just Simpson's wizardry that drives this pick-and-roll attack; Howard's NBA experience shows up in the way Michigan turns a simple staple play into a Swiss army knife.

Oh, right, I should probably back that claim up.

The Best Pick-and-Roll Ballhandler In The Country

Let's start with the Big Ten. When you map usage against efficiency, it's apparent who's the current pick-and-roll king of the Big Ten. These stats, which include passes, come from Synergy. A huge thank you to Seth, the guy who's not lying when he says he's proficient in Excel [click to embiggen]:

Nobody combines usage and efficiency like Simpson in the conference, not even Cassius Winston, who in fact comes up short on both counts. The only players to surpass Simpson's efficiency are D'Mitrik Trice, Eric Ayala, and DJ Carton, who all take on far less usage. Meanwhile, both DeJulius and Brooks are among the most effective P&R ballhandlers in the league, which portends well for this season and next.

As for the country, Synergy doesn't have an easy way to slice the leaderboard down to high-major players, but even attempting to do so makes it apparent there isn't a comparable player to Simpson. Captain Hook has taken on 482 pick-and-roll possessions this season and he's generated 0.985 points per play on those possessions. Only five other major conference players have cracked 400 pick-and-roll possessions, though all have fewer than Simpson's total. Just one of those players, Wake Forest senior Brandon Childress, cracks 0.9 PPP, and he's still a decent bit below Simpson at 0.925.

Long live the king.