MGoPodcast 14.16: Out of Order Comment Count

Seth January 9th, 2023 at 7:00 AM

1 hour and 51 minutes

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1. TCU: Offense

starts at 1:00

Michigan overly punished for mistakes, which drowns out the game: there were four events in this game worth more than a TD and they all happened to Michigan. Like 2010 Illinois but with stakes. Most unforgiveable thing was not making JJ's legs part of the offense. TCU's approach was so aggressive Michigan couldn't comprehend it, since they didn't back off after Michigan burned them with it. JJ had a great game except for his two worst throws of his career. TCU DE/DTs held up well, can't be too mad since they surged the 2nd half and should have scored 60 points (in 18 drives). OL got turned around—some of the running game explosives were there but had mistakes. Why would you play into their hands with inside zone?

[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]

2. TCU: Defense

starts at 38:38

Probably could have gotten away with the Cover Zero if Turner just doesn't miss that tackle. Shallow screen for two TDs, one is a hat tip, the other a blitz tip. Defending their normal pass game was fine otherwise. Morris was not healthy, Smith had a bad game—devastating that he turned down the 3rd and 2 sack that was there for him because next play is Green blitzes and Quinten Johnson is not covering his guy. Why was Cam Goode in for that drive, which was two huge plays in a row. Defensive end discussion had—Morris barely played, McGregor is a true freshman from the waist down, Harrell had one of his worst games, Upshaw had his worst game, Okie had a bad game. Colson two excellent plays, several terrible plays, next year not so Mouton.

3. Hot Takes, Special Teams, Game Theory, Plus Harbaugh and NCAA "Violations"

starts at 1:04:05

The Pax Specialistica has come to an end, but ends with a 59-yard field goal. Thanks to TCU for "freezing" him so he got a practice shot. Harbaugh's late timeouts? You should probably use them early because the most they're going to save is 40 seconds. Smart of TCU to take a PI call there instead of allowing the catch. Refs: Insane to overturn a clear touchdown, refs also put that drive two yards back because they forgot with 49-yard-line it happened on. Seth thinks the targeting call was correct. See:

Harbaugh contract stuff: Everything is so obviously coming from the agent that you can read his quotes on Twitter. The NCAA stuff is so so weak. MSU fans lol. To OSU fans, nailing Tressel for lying about huge program things that would get him in trouble is not the same as forgetting a burger. More like the difference between nailing Capone for tax fraud versus the IRS finding you were $50 short on your estimated taxes. Seriously, anyone who is taking this seriously never has to be taken seriously ever again.

4. Hoops Takes After MSU

starts at 1:35:23

Make your shots is now a refrain after several seasons in a row of not making them when they visit Breslin. What's the problem? For one Hunter Dickinson isn't as motivated this year—perhaps not having to prove himself to the NBA has taken it out of him, but Michigan needs more from their star. Freshmen a little off-kilter in their first true road game is understandable. Have to ride with what you have, but sick of new PGs every year. At least next year they should get Llewellyn back on a medical redshirt.

MUSIC:

  • "Watching Strangers Smile"—Parquet Courts
  • "I Don't Wanna Be Famous"—NNAMDÏ
  • "Rock Bottom"—Kevin Morby
  • “Across 110th Street”

THE USUAL LINKS:

What's your hot take if you already used that one?

Comments

Casanova

January 9th, 2023 at 8:04 AM ^

Rewatching the game,  Michigan seemed almost insulted by TCU toughness and exotic 3-3-5 alignments. 

In these type of games the first quarter is essential and we got to do a better job of getting off the bus with our hair on fire.

It just sucks, was such a missed opportunity. Georgia would have had their hands full with this team. 

 

energyblue1

January 9th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^

Entire program brain farted this one away!  So many mistakes by coaches and players.  Even little things were big in this game that should never be an issue.  A DE crashing hard to the inside when he was the contain defender and gave up a huge 3rd down conversion.  Made no sense.  

Not running JJ at all, not going play action, not doing both.  Maybe they were saving all of that for Georgia, idk but they saved everything for a game that wouldn't happen because of the massive overconfidence in this one.  

TCU, played a better game.  The biggest difference was our mistakes gave up td's and theirs somehow were bailed out by another mistake by our players or staff.  2 int's, 2 pick 6's.  2 Int's and we turn the ball right back over or what ever.  21-0 on points off turnovers I believe.  

How our DE's never went to Duggin to force the give on their read option, I'll never know.  NFL DC's have been doing this for years making the QB/RB meshpoint the aim for the de, turn to the qb if he pulls, turn down to the rb if he gives.  Jesse Minter knows this, so what our de's were doing and what our lbers were doing, idk.  Hard to fathom how bad they were exposed.  

Other massive mistakes were the missed tackles.  We had several for tfl's or short of the sticks to get the stop and simply missed or tackled high to give up the yac for a 1st down that should have ended drives.  Not one reason for this.  

TheCube

January 9th, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^

Michigan is now back to the good ole Bo Schembechler days.
 

Win the B10; lose the bowl game. Fans will be split 50/50 arguing about dinosaur offense, Michigan football elitism yada yada yada. 

Only this time the recruiting will be worse since Harbaugh can’t seem to make up his mind. 

bronxblue

January 9th, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^

I saw the targeting justification post some days ago and it holds that if you can only justify it not being a penalty by painfully going through every frame and pinpointing points of contact then you're trying to hard.  It was a dangerous hit and just because by happenstance he missed a guys neck and head with his helmet because of the vagaries of human movement while being tackled that doesn't change anything.  It probably wouldn't have mattered given the game situation (UM still had to go 60 yards for a TD) but if you want to eliminate these types of hits you sometimes have to make them in high leverage spots.

JonathanE

January 9th, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^

The real point of the hit was that it was unnecessary. Loveland was going down and was a country mile away from a first down. There was no need for that. The theory behind targeting is to eliminate these types of dangerous hits. A penalty should have been called and the TCU player suspended for the first half of the game against Georgia. 

If the roles were reversed and a Michigan player delivered that hit, I would say the same thing. Quit being selfish, the play is going to be over, and you win the game. There is no need for that. 

bronxblue

January 9th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^

Yeah, it's like when refs "swallow the whistle" at the end of a basketball game.  Call the penalty if it's there and recognize that UM still has to go about 60 yards to score a TD with about 45 seconds.  If you can't stop them after all the breaks you've already gotten in this game then so be it but trying to lay a Madden hit on a guy to end the game is stupid and they should be punished for it.

gbdub

January 9th, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^

I have no idea how you write a bright line rule about this but in my head “targeting” should include a couple things:

1) Intentional Action - the player took deliberate actions that either caused a dangerous hit or made a dangerous hit substantially more likely. They did not make an intentional effort to reduce the danger of the hit.

2) Unnecessary- it was possible to “make the play” with a substantially less dangerous hit

I would say if it meets both of these, it should be targeting whether or not it meets the minutiae of the targeting rule. And if it doesn’t, they should be more lenient. 

I feel like the hit on Loveland easily met both criteria. The way the TCU player launched, the crown of his helmet was highly likely to hit Loveland in his head or neck, even if it didn’t by a hair. And it wasn’t necessary to make the play - he was already tied up and going down, well behind the line to gain (he did flip the ball out, but that’s even more reason for the defender to not leave his feet and launch). 
 

The controversial hit on Harrison, meanwhile, I think the Georgia player made a last minute intentional effort to hit shoulder to shoulder rather than head on. And it was a high-leverage situation where a hard hit was needed to make the play. 

bronxblue

January 9th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^

Yeah, the point of the rule is to stop guys from going for head shots on players; it's not about arguing inches of contact above or below a piece of the helmet.  That's what drove me crazy about all this analysis - yes it bails UM out of a bad spot but it was also the right call to make in that situation.  And as you noted, you can see the hit against Harrison and it's different; it's a shoulder to another guy.  It's a clean but violent hit, and Ryan Day being shocked a guy could get a concussion from a clean hit tells a lot about his overall comprehension as an HC.  

But yeah, this was a play that should have been called targeting and my guess is we'll get some article this offseason about how the NCAA agrees it was targeting and is using it to instruct their referees to ID it in the future and it's going to be absolutely as infuriating then as it is now.

gbdub

January 9th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^

One thing that I’m sure was in the refs’ heads, even though it shouldn’t be, is the suspension from the first half of the championship game. I’m not a fan of that part of the rule - I see the logic, but I think it’s too harsh and is going to make the refs second guess calling anything close to questionable. Make the suspension discretionary and have somebody review it after the game to see if it was really egregious/malicious, otherwise 15 yards and sitting for the rest of the game (even if that’s just a couple minutes) is fine. 

TESOE

January 10th, 2023 at 12:54 AM ^

Intention has nothing to do with traumatic injury. Targeting should be called when you hit the target. How else do you get people to stop targeting? If refs called targeting whenever the target is hit...maybe players would be targeted less? Just saying.

The problem of CTE and traumatic head injury is not based on intent. I don't understand the reluctance to enforce suspensions. Teams are rarely at full strength anyhow. What is so bad with not tolerating head to head contact regardless of intent? I like football, but the idea of wrapping targeting with intent is quixotic at best. What is the ideal we are chasing here? The game isn't safe, and is worse off for those who dally around the danger.

The Victors

January 9th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^

I have a good friend who is a lower-level college football referee -- does JCs, FCS, and practices/scrimmages for local FBS programs.

My friend says this is fairly textbook targeting. I don't know who made the video, but the argument in that posted video is that first contact is made by the side/logo of the TCU player's helmet before the crown makes contact with Loveland's back/neck, therefore it negates the "crown" part of the targeting rule. My friend says this is incorrect. Just because the TCU player's helmet happens to *glance* the back of Loveland's helmet on his way to hitting Loveland with the crown does NOT negate the fact that the TCU player "targeted an opponent with the crown (top) of his helmet". Refs are trained to look for where the hitter's eyes are -- if they are looking straight down at the ground (which the TCU player is), then it is likely crown/targeting. The rule also states, "when in question, it is a foul", so to bronxblue's point, if you're trying to justify not calling targeting by looking at every still-frame and split-second of contact, you're looking at it incorrectly and that is NOT how the refs are trained.

With that said, the only reason I was irritated at the non-targeting call was because of the egregious call to take away Roman Wilson's TD earlier in the game. While it wouldn't make up for it, I felt like the replay official owed us one.

My ref friend said the reversal of Roman Wilson's TD was especially bad because the replay official completely "over" officiated. On replay, he felt they could have justified saying the TD was "confirmed" because Wilson did not have possession until he was in the end zone, but was expecting the call to "stand" because there was certainly not "irrefutable video evidence" to justify reversing the call on the field.

Kilgore Trout

January 9th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^

I second the comments from the giant guys in front of David and Craig. This is a great community and I am grateful to all of you guys for improving the depth and fun of my Michigan fandom. Truly a real service to people like myself. 

uofi17

January 9th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^

As one of the the two giant guys Dave mentioned, I was just glad to be called out for our appreciation of MGoBlog rather than the actively harming the site’s coverage by blocking Craig & Dave’s view. I tried to shrink as much as possible, but I’m bigger than either of our starting Tackles so there really is nowhere to go when packed in tight on a flat slope like that.

Not the game outcome we wanted of course. But confirming Dave’s comments, the work they do at this site meaningfully improves my experience in following Michigan football.

goblue2121

January 9th, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^

Unfortunate time for the turnovers to occur after this team protected the football so well all season. Still pleasantly surprised with the outcome this year. Didn't go into the year with playoff expectations and thought 2023 would most likely be the better team. Proud of what these guys accomplished.  Tough breaks but that's football. Keep grinding.

1VaBlue1

January 9th, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^

Every time I read or hear something about this game, I get pissed off all over again because of the game plan going in.  I will never understand how, in the playoffs, you can so thoroughly under-estimate your opponent and give them no respect whatsoever.  The offensive game plan, after watching TCU's defense continuously fire at RB's on tape for an entire season, and having an entire month to prepare, is to run Edwards between the tackles.  No misdirection, no play action, no QB runs - just go straight between the tackles into whatever they try to do.

A better offensive game plan going in and we win this game kind of easily.  Get outside the tackles, use JJ's legs occasionally, throw it into the areas vacated by the LB's, and we're running our game and boa constrictor'ing TCU's offense because they can't get on the field.

And after watching Georgia-OSU, I feel Michigan beats UGA in a typical game.

lhglrkwg

January 9th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^

I think it's just who Harbaugh is and it's a weakness of his. He stares at loaded boxes where we are minus one and believes in wearing them down or believes we will inevitably win and he wasted a half of football doing it. If our game plan came in heavier with JJ run game and JJ passing, we probably win that game by 2+ possessions. So, so frustrating to see an offense that featured more passing and JJs runs absolutely shred TCU's defense in the 2nd half.

Carpetbagger

January 9th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^

You are spot on. We had the players, we were just let down by the coaches coaching like the opponent didn't have a whole month to prepare too.

I don't know if we would have beat Georgia. We could have, sure. But if we had the same coaching malpractice against them this year that we did against TCU, no way. (And think about Georgia last year, that wasn't exactly the most innovative game plan either).

Pinto1987

January 9th, 2023 at 1:27 PM ^

I agree with you and Carpetbagger, below.

While at the game, my first thought was "this is the dumbest game I've attended" since the 2000 Northwestern game (when A Thomas fumbled, untouched, in the open field with less than 2 minutes to go, to give NW a short field to score and win 54-51.  By the way, NW wears purple.  Jinx?)

Later, I thought I might have mistakenly attended an adaptation of Bill S' "The Comedy of Errors"; produced and directed by J Harbaugh; starring S Moore, M Weiss, and J Minter; with JJ McCarthy playing the role of all four twins.

This game is entirely on the coaches, in my mind.  McCarthy's two picks are on him and the screwed up calls are (sadly) to be expected.  Still, those mistakes could have been easily overcome with a competent coaching job.

The Philly Special was insane.  Kick it or use McCarthy's legs - like you did at OSU.

The Wilson call was horrible, but it was still a 1st down inside the one.  Go under center, sneak it, and try to push him in.  Otherwise, start running your best 2pt plays from the gun.  Going under center to try to execute a quick hand off to a brand new running back?  Dumb.

Beyond that, running Cover Zero and blitzing are OSU-level mistakes (see 45-23).  Not activating McCarthy runs until late Q3?  Foolish.  Inside zone into crashing LBs and Safeties?  Dumb.  Etc., etc.

This game was there to be taken - but TCU took advantage of some of the worst bowl preparation I've seen since 1970 - and that's saying something.  It's a sad, sad thing because these opportunities don't come around very often.

  

 

 

Cam

January 9th, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^

I don't understand what the coaches were thinking in their preparation. It's like they wanted to prove they could play "their game" without having to adapt to TCU's strengths. Any time you score 6 points in the first half and 39 in the second, it's obvious you came in with a poor strategy. 

 

Venom7541

January 9th, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^

Should have been 13 in the first half, but for replay officials. Point still stands, but that removed touchdown will always piss me off, especially since it was immediately followed by a fumble. If Replay gets that right, the game would most likely be different from there on. 

BlueTimesTwo

January 9th, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^

It wasn't just a bad call, it was a horrible one.  If called short on the field, you could maybe argue that it should stand, but that is the point.  I was in no way, shape or form indisputable.  It was a huge overturn without sufficient video evidence.  That was a pre-determined result looking for a justification.  It is eerily similar to the strip-sack from MSU game last year.  A play like that is never called that way before or since, yet they overrule it in a high-impact situation.  It is simply indefensible.

The fact that we failed to score the touchdown a second time doesn't make the call any less terrible.

Waves

January 9th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^

Just looking at that frog gives me PTSD. My son and I were at that game but due to a mixup, our seats were on the TCU side. They gave it to us good the whole game. Now I want them to get rolled. Some positive waves, though. I had the privilege of sitting near Braylon Edwards on the flight out of Phoenix and spent time talking to him. What a cool guy and an unforgettable experience. Go Blue!

cbrad

January 9th, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^

Harbaugh and co. had a poor game plan going in. Possibly so distracted by NFL longings that his head wasn't really in the game. Worst coached and played game of the season.

lhglrkwg

January 9th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^

Totally agree with what Brian was getting at for the offense wrt to overloading the run offense and not giving JJ chances in season. Harbaugh clearly loves to run his base, heavy run offense against anyone who is not a threat and I see that as a growing problem for Michigan as we creep into the elite levels of CFB when you can't just run 30 times at a crappy defense

  1. You can't play scared, but no doubt it puts wear and tear on guys like Corum for no reason. He did not need to carry 28 times vs Nebraska. Put Stokes out there. Put a walk on out there.
  2. On the other side of the coin, I think it hampers JJ's development big time when he barely ever runs ZR until it's critical that he execute it right and he really wasn't asked to win a game with his arm till OSU.

In the TCU game you can see a JJ that can be a Heisman finalist next year, but I think Harbaugh (if he's still here) is exceedingly likely to continue giving him <3 carries per game and <20 passes per game if he can get away with it. If Michigan wants a shot at a title next year, JJ needs to be allowed to put up Heisman numbers. If that means he throws a few picks against Indiana, so what! Better to iron out issues when it doesn't matter than realize you have them in the CFP semi-final

Unfortunately I think these things are highly unlikely to change because it's who Harbaugh is

bronxblue

January 9th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^

They need to run McCarthy more but I assume some of it had to go with a concern that there was no backup behind him.  Bowman wasn't a realistic option, Warren's a walk-on, and everyone else is a freshman with clear limitations.  

I will also add that while McCarthy played fine in this game those 2 pick-sixes were on him, and he missed a couple of easy throws in that first half that would have probably gotten the offense going.  Those are all reasonable issues for a first-year starter and I do expect improvements from him but I am not quite ready to read a ton into that 3rd quarter when insanity broke out and WRs were open by 10 yards half the time.  

I do agree that Harbaugh likes to run his style of offense but also that netted them something like 40 points per game, a second conference title, and a playoff berth where basically anything gone right for them they'd have won and gone to the national title game.  There are strengths and weaknesses to every approach and thinking one will be better in one circumstance might not work in another and in college in particular you can't roll out bespoke offensive gameplans for everyone and be effective at it.

Carpetbagger

January 9th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^

The handoff is always on the QB too, so the fumble at the 1 was technically on him.

I'm not going to try to blame anything on illness, like the dumb meme about OSU the whole last year. But McCarthy looked like the only guy with a sweaty face much of the first half. Could just have been a bad game, who knows.

First year starting, so he should be better next year.