Mailbag Entirely Concerned With Beilein's Recruiting
Brian,
Is there any hope of Michigan capitalizing on its NCAA appearance, where it could possible snag a decent current senior or a quality junior recruit?
I'm so tired of 2-3 star white guys from out of state. It's getting old. Darius Morris is a rivals 4-star (minor miracle), but it burns me to see a PSL junior like Keith Appling already fitted for green and white. Does Beilein even care about the PSL? Sure he recruited the 2-star stick-figure tall kid out of U-D Jesuit for next year, but that doesn't remotely count.
I guess my question boils down to, can he recruit?
Thanks,
David Komer
Beilein can obviously recruit at some level. He's taken four separate programs to the NCAA tourney, unearthed Gansey and Pittsnogle and Joe Alexander and so forth and so on and has generally taken the Gonzaga-Butler route of finding under the radar kids who can play in his system. He can obviously do that, and that should be good for tourney bids most years.
But given the hostility above—way to enjoy the season, dude—I don't think that's the question. The question appears to be "can Beilein recruit like Izzo/Matta/whoever," and the answer is very probably not. That's what Michigan signed up for when they hired Beilein: low downside, low upside. Beilein's not the sort of coach to upset the instate balance of power or hire some random AAU guy for the privilege of getting your one-and-done kid. He's not that guy. He is a guy who will bring guaranteed respectability, likeable teams, and a host of tourney bids with some fun runs to the Sweet 16 or whatever. Michigan basically abdicated on being a powerhouse when they hired Beilein.
David Komer, who seems like a dick, might not like this. After Ellerbe and Amaker I'm fine with it. Michigan will build up a program over Beilein's career and then be in a position to swing for the fences afterwards. Fine.
That said, Beilein didn't leave West Virginia because he wanted to build Michigan into West Virginia. WVU is the kind of place only someone thoroughly down and dirty like Huggins can recruit to. As we saw with Rodriguez, there is virtually no instate talent and people from outside the state aren't exactly dying to go to Morgantown. Morgan's higher rated than any recruit Beilein's ever gotten. So is Matt Vogrich. Beilein probably disagrees 100% with the abdication stuff above and is going to go for bigger, better recruits than he ever landed at WVU. You can see the uptick from his first class to his second; 2010 promises to be another step forward.
As far as specifics: Michigan's 2009 class is done. They were looking at Aussie center Angus Brandt, but he committed to Oregon State. There are few recruits left and no one on Michigan's radar.
As far as 2010: we'll see. Michigan is in on a number of highly rated recruits, the most prominent being MI SF Trey Ziegler. Ziegler is ranked slightly lower than Manny was by the time his senior season ended and keeps listing Michigan strongly. There have been erratic rumors Michigan leads but nothing solid; he's a keystone recruit for Beilein. Michigan's also in on a few guys who either aren't quite as highly rated or don't seem like strong possibilities:
- Tim Hardaway Jr. and Morgan Moses are both 2/3 sorts who have visited and are strongly considering Michigan. Moses is a top 100 kid to Rivals but not Scout; Hardaway is a high three star and the son of that other guy named Tim Hardaway. Neither is white. This is probably not a surprise about Hardaway.
- Casey Prather is a mondo recruit listing Michigan who will visit but seems ticketed elsewhere.
- Will Regan is a skilled post guy hanging on the bottom of top 150 lists who's getting interest and offers from some pretty big schools now. He's from Buffalo, Beilein's old stomping grounds, and Michigan's supposed to be in excellent position.
- There's also this Evan Smotrycz guy, but he's an under the radar tall white guy who can shoot and will probably only serve to enrage you.
Getting Zeigler and another talented, non-role-player wing is extremely important in 2010. Michigan is (probably) going to have to replace Sims and Harris and no one they've recruited so far is going to be the sort of guy to get his own shot or draw the focus of the defense save maybe Morris. But let's see how things fall out before we shoot ourselves in the head.
Also: Appling? We're seriously complaining about Beilein losing recruits to Michigan State? Izzo has been to the Final Four five times! When Appling committed Michigan was still in the midst of a decade-long tourney drought and Beilein was just a new guy with no connections in state. If you insist on comparing Michigan's program to MSU you're going to be very disappointed, and that was obvious from the first day Beilein was hired. MSU is going to remain the dominant instate program until Izzo retires or gets hired by Alabama (which lol). Period. Michigan is going to have to build slowly; let's not be State football fans here.
Obviously it would be great for U of M to have its pick of McDonald's All-Americans every year. That said, there's a difference between recruiting and winning. Beilein took WVU to the Elite Eight. Why can't he do the same, or better, w/ U of M?
BOOM COOKED
100% PURE TEXARKANA SEX
So there David fucking Komer guy!!11!!
The reply to this mail from David Komer was spot-on. Great post.
Michigan isn't going to dominate the Big 10, but they'll be fun to watch and the players will be guys we like cheering for. Those are very important factors to lots of U-M fans.
I mean, NOTHING says "getting old" like two seasons with Beilein... one of which he broke an 11 year tourney drought.
I will now go and apologize to all my ND/MSU/Big10 friends for ripping them when they suggested UM fans are effing idiots.
on getting completely owned.
Many folks have already morphed into something similar to State Football fans.
And, fact is, studly PSL guys have been going elsewhere for years. Derek Coleman. Missouri used to come up here and grab a bunch of kids, one was Doug Smith. Battier. And so forth.
Beilein is recruiting just fine. Michigan is already on its way to re-estbalishing itself as a destination for hoop recruits.
Give it time, let it grow.
And, I think the Appling commitment to MSU may actually help UM get Zeigler. Izzo already has a couple nice recruits in the class that play his position.
Not to be nit-picky, but Battier played at Detroit Country Day...which is just about as far from PSL as you can be.
DCDS high school is more expensive than in-state tuition to UM.
After just one season- A season that we won just 10 games- Beilein landed Darius. And, remember Darius Morris was an early signee- he didn't wait to see if we actually had our act together this season or not.
And, during the summer we were down to the wire on some other top notch recruits, Nate Lubick comes to mind.
John Beilein is on the PSL kids (Ray McCallum, for example)- he understands how important it is to recruit the PSL, Flint, and west side of the state. It is going to take time, Jordan Morgan was just the first.
To close: Whatever, David.
Considering Michigan's predilection for shooting threes, a player named Trey sounds like a perfect fit.
I'm actually surprised you put this guy's full name on this question. How uninformed about college basketball can he be? Did he just awake from a 15 year coma and the last he remembers of Michigan basketball is when we recruited Taylor, Traylor, Mitchell, etc.? Wow. Where do you begin to respond to this?
First of all, what is the key ingredient to maintaining a level of success in college basketball? Upper classmen. Look at UNC even!
One of the things I respect with Izzo is that he abandoned his pursuit of McDonald's All Americans after the Zach Randolph/Jason Richardson era resulted in early defections and players who didn't fit his system. He's build his program on very good players who may or may not project to the NBA. Who on this MSU team is likely to leave early for the NBA or even have a strong NBA career? Yet MSU is consistently one of the top 5-10 programs in the country!!
I would MUCH, MUCH, MUCH rather have a team with a healthy mix if experienced players that know their role, get better each year, are likeable, maintain the level of success at the program, and allow Beilein to teach and run his system. You need a couple of top 150 players, sure, but you don't need to recruit the Kevin Durant/Greg Oden type of player.
Next year Michigan will have three players who were 4* players or better in Morris, Manny, and Sims. Vogrich was first team all state in Illinois and they have a frickin' preferred walk-on who finished 5th in Michigan's Mr. Basketball!
I wouldn't trade the John Beilein approach to running a program for something like Thad Motta's revolving door of NBA farm team.
i'll take guys likely to stick around every time. matta can keep the oden / conley types.
There is a rumor over here on the west side that Beilein offered Korey VanDussen (PG out of Zeeland East that finished 3rd for Mr. Basketball) in the past week or so on the condition that he takes a redshirt. Not sure if it's true or not...
Also, it really can't be stressed enough that one of the reasons that Beilein is here is that he's *not* Huggins or Calipari. Those guys are "great" recruiters, but they also bring all sorts of exposure to the seamy underbelly of high school and AAU hoops. After Ed Martin, Michigan specifically does not want that, not even so much as a whiff of that.
Beilein will be fine. He'll get good players who will come here and represent the university well and maybe even make some noise in the tournament along the way. But if you think that we're going to wake up one day and find an entire squad of future NBA lottery picks roaming around Crisler, then you need to seriously recalibrate your expectations. It's not going to happen, and that has as much to do with what the university and the AD want as it does with Beilein.
Sounds like some sort of journalistic approach taught at the Jim Carty Institute for Journalism. Even if you think Komer is a dick, there is something poetic about just laying it out there for everyone to consume. I know when I read the email, I was thinking Komer was a part of that small, but vocal group of UM fans that just can't enjoy their fanhood. You know the type. We could win the National Championship in Football, Basketball, and Hockey in a given year and they would still find a reason to bitch about recruiting or facilities, or other fans.
I think there should be a "Komer" T-Shirt printed up.
This is getting ridiculous. Beilein doesn’t care about the PSL and RR doesn’t even know what conference he is in. Here’s what we need—a class that all incoming coaches and athletes can take that will teach them what they need to know. Let’s call it “What a MICHIGAN MAN needs to know.” Here’s the syllabus.
Class name:What a MICHIGAN MAN needs to know
Department: General Studies
Credits: Enough
Professor: Dr. John Hagen
Teaching Assistant: Shari Acho
Football
• Welcome to the Big Ten
• Why the spread offense will never work
• Night games FTW
• The #1 jersey
• Recruiting western Michigan
• O$U always cheats
• The rivalry with OSU and how to “get it”
• Terrelle Pryor sux!
• Acceptable places for OSU stickers
Basketball
• Know the PSL
• UM is always better than MSU despite reality or data
• Ed Martin is dead
Hockey
• No one cares if you pee on the side of a building
Komer, you are basing this on Beilein's track record of TWO recruiting classes - one of which came off a 10-22 season and 83rd in a row without going to the tourney. That is not quite enough to say Morris is the exception.
Also, those two white stiff freshmen that Beilein recruited just started for two games in the NCAA tournament.
Komer actually sounds a lot like a Sparty posing as a Michigan fan. "Yeah, Michigan had a good year but they suck at recruiting, brah."
Michigan is not conceding anything. Beilien is well respected and why would kids not want to come to Michigan and jack up 3's?? Maybe Beilein won't get dirty and pay off AAU teams, but that doesn't mean we can't get top players. Let's wait and see a year or 2 before writing the guy off as reaching for the Xavier level. Beilein has outrecruited our previous program level by landing Morris. If we improve next year and the 2010 and 2011 classes yield little talent than we can say Beilien can't recruit. To say our ceiling with Beilein is 3rd place in the Big Ten and a fluky Sweet 16 appearance is a little premature. Tell that to Beilein and he would probably want to fight you.
We forget, Amaker actually recruited pretty well his first couple of years. Horton was a four star (that ranking is no longer in the rival database), Dion Harris was #28, Courtney Sims #36, Brent Petway #71, Deshawn Sims #31, and Manny #34. Amaker just couldn't develop any of that talent he got. Most were the same player as seniors that they were as Freshman. Only Horton really improved under Amaker.
What I meant by previous level was 10-22 not Amaker. Why can we not hope to recruit at Amaker's level?? You bring up a good point about Amaker's recruiting. Should be easier to recruit players to a tournament level team with better facilities and better coaching than it was for Amaker.
The majority of them leave within two years, and almost all are gone after year three. The senior class this year had 25 five star prospects coming out of high school. Seven of them finished this year still in college; Tyler Hansbrough (UNC), Greg Paulus (Duke), Byron Eaton (Oklahoma State), Tasmin Mitchell (LSU), Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin), Courtney Fells (NC State), and Jovan Adams (UNLV). Of those 7, Mitchell and Adams were redshirted. I know Mitchell was injured, but have no idea about Adams. Paulus and Krabbenhoft were obviously rated higher than they should have been. In most of those cases, coaches spent year one teaching them the system and how to play with teammates. If they were actually lucky to get them for year two then they were weapons, but not many stayed that long. Now, this was the last class that could go straight to the NBA right after high school. So I also looked at the following year. There were 30 five stars in this class and 11 of them finished their junior years and almost all of them with the exception of Paul Harris, Stanley Robinson, Obi Muonelo and Brian Zoubek are expected to declare. These recruits make big splashes when they sign, but they rarely actually do much for the program. What did Texas actually get from Durant? Ohio State has had a 5 star center sign and only play on year three years running. I would rather have some players in rated in the Darius Morris range, where you can basically expect at least three years.
What a cock.
perhaps el grande puto.
Excuse me...however,David think back to the second half of the UConn game. I believe one of those two/three star white guy from out of state dropped five or six treys to keep Michigan in the game until the three minute mark.
Interesting letter...interesting but,pointless.
We lost that game, so big deal. Assuming those 2/3* guys were 3/4/5* guys (of any color) and we probably end up winning. I think that's the point of the question.
I don't think the point is that we need 2 or 3 5* Top 10 guys to win a championship, but we cannot do so with a bunch of 2/3* guys and 1 or 2 4* guys, no matter how good of a coach we have. Unfortunately, I view that as the case.
was interjected by the origin of the letter. I myself could CARELESS what race someone is wearing the maize & blue,I only cheer for the baller.
The matter of how many stars a recruit has behind his name isn't somuch of a issue,atleast today...got to have ballers like Trey or Brandon in the program so Michigan can take the next step. With Stu,Novack and Big C Michigan has a foundation to build on for the future. We need the foundation layers in order to take that next step.
My reference of Stu's heroic second half was one of many highlights this season. Again...if he didn't shoot lights out that second half...Michigan wouldn't have been in the game. I was quite proud of the way Blue played against a Big East top five team. Conn didn't blow us out. In fact,it took everything Conn had to pull out a well fought victory.
"David Komer, who seems like a dick..."
Made my day.
Trey Ziegler is going to go to Central to play for his father.
(OK, I don't really believe that, but a guy can hope. I do think he's likely to go to Michigan though. I don't see an outstate program getting him, nor do I see him going to State. It may really come down to Central vs. Michigan.)
From my "Season Wrap-Up" article on UMGoBlue.com (http://umgoblue.com/absolutenm/templates/?a=668&z=1):
Before I go any further, I need to say a few words about recruiting. While fresh players are the lifeblood of any successful college program, some of the so-called experts place way too much emphasis on getting the greatest number of highly-ranked recruits. They tend to just look at the (somewhat arbitrary) "star" ranking system, and they issue these proclamations about how this school or that school has the #1 or #2 recruiting class, as if it were some mathematical formula. If only it were that easy! There are a lot more factors than the number of recruits and how many "stars" they’ve been assigned. As we saw this season, team chemistry can help turn a collection of walk-ons and 2- and 3-star recruits into a team that can beat a team packed with 5-star recruits. In the case of Beilein’s system, he is looking for a certain kind of player, so he might be chasing recruits that only get 2 or 3 stars. The experts look at all the 5-star recruits going elsewhere and announce that Beilein is getting out-recruited. Of course, half of those 5-star recruits end up leaving for the NBA after 1 or 2 seasons, but they get a lot of press while they’re in college. They may not help their programs in the long run, but they’re a wonderful short-term solution.
Coach Beilein is looking for a certain kind of player who will fit in with the rest of team, and stay at Michigan for all 4 years. He’s looking for players who are quick and versatile, and who can play anywhere on the floor. Everyone on the floor needs to be able to play point guard. Everyone needs to be able to run the floor, flat out, for 40 minutes. Everyone needs to be able to shoot 3-pointers, get rebounds, and play multiple styles of defense. Those players might not be 5-star recruits, but they’re more valuable to the team than any "one year wonder". Beilein knows what kind of players he wants on his team, and he gets them. Don’t worry about how many stars they get, or who else was chasing them.
I think it's seriously premature to say that we're giving up a shot at being a power program by having Beilein. He's never before been at a place that could realistically expect to land top-notch recruits, so how can we conclude that he won't be able to pull them in? Manny and DeShawn were big-name guys, and they're flourishing in his system. Let's just see how things play out.
Beilein's ability to develop talent is exceptional. I can't wait to see how good Stu, Novak, LLP, Morris, Vogrich, Cronin Morgan and even Ant Wright will be in a couple years. If these guys continue to develop and work hard, we could potentially have 5 guys that shoot over 40% from three point range in two years. That would not only be extremely fun to watch, but deadly for opponents with Cronin vacuuming in all the rebounds his giant arms can corral.
I would temper expectations about Cronin. He's got a long, long way to go.
Calling Cronin a project might even be a bit of an understatement at this point. I doubt he even plays much next season.
Jay, I'm absolutely shocked, shocked I say, that you would be pessimistic on this!
I, at first, was skeptical as well, but then I saw the kid in person at the open scrimmage and also watched when he got ten minutes of garbage time and racked up 5 rebounds, one block and was 4-4 on free throws. He's not a stiff.
He may not be great next year, but if his hip is good to go by fall conditioning stuff, I see him having a much more significant contribution to the team next year than Gibson did this year, and even starting.
BleedingBlue,
I've seen the open scrimmage as well as the Maize Rage practice and have heard from people who see the team on a much more consistent basis: Gibson owns Cronin in practice.
Seriously, Cronin has some ways to go. Think of who he was playing in garbage time: Norfolk State's end of the bench players.
You can't use any of that PT to predict how he'll fare against Big Ten big men.
I understand garbage time is not a true test. I was using it as an example of some positive characteristics (getting to the line, making his free throws, securing rebounds, blocking a shot) in a very small sample. Yes he was a freshman with a bum him and he needs work, but my original comment was projecting him as a good rebounder for the 2010-2011 season, which would be his redshirt sophomore year.
Just for fun: As a comparison, Puls got 20 mins of PT total and secured 2 rebounds and 2 blocks, zero free-throws. Gibson got 50 mins of PT against Norfolk and Michigan Tech, had 20 rebounds, was 3-4 on free throws and 2 blocks. Project out Cronin to 50 mins (flimsy at best I realize) and you get 25 rebounds, 20 FT attempts and 5 blocks. And that was with a bum hip which will hopefully be much closer to 100% in the next two seasons.
Again - extremely small sample size here, and I respect that the kid has a lot of work to do, but it seems he should be able to help in two areas, free throw rate and rebounding, that are seen as the teams biggest weaknesses.
I hope he does as well as you hope.
However, you lost all credibility with me when I saw the words "Project out Cronin to 50 mins"
I don't care how you immediately qualify it or whatever. Projecting garbage minutes out to any minutes is the worst, most over-used attempt at an argument about a basketball player's worth as there is.
Anyone can succeed in garbage minutes. They are called garbage minutes for a reason - everyone has stopped playing defense and nobody cares. Ugh, I can't believe I'm still talking about this.
relax - all I'm saying is I'm excited for his future and that he should be able to contribute with some much needed rebounding and getting to the line - not to mention making them.
And yes I did qualify that garbage time is flimsy and i said 'for fun'...see fun. It's fun to be optimistic. exciting even.
Don't email Brian with an angry drunk question without thinking about the consequences. But that was fun.
Is the 2-star stick figure out of UD Jesuit he is referring to supposed to be Jordan Morgan? First of all, he's a 3 star. Second of all, he's listed at 6'8" 245lbs. He's not Shaq, but not exactly a stick figure, especially since that weight is likely from his junior year. And if he's a stick figure, what does that say for McLimans at 6'10" and 210lbs?
You beat me to it. Morgan is pure beef. Brian was right to call this guy a dick. I would've loved to have been there when Brian opened this email, read it, and then punched his cat in the face.
Brian,
You've worked hard over the years to be considered a credible journalist - so why would you hurt your cause by calling one of your readers a dick?
I'm sure if Dave received a mailbag from you at his newspaper - he wouldn't call you a dick. Then again, Dave's a respectable journalist. Apparently, you still have some work to do.
And no I'm not Dave.
The MSM posting questions on blogs. Interesting.
Well, there is the magic of the mitigating "seems like" a dick.
agree with you man.
Do you know for sure that Brian wants to be considered "a credible journalist"? I can't speak for him of course but seems to me he's a blogger, writing from a fan's perspective, not a news reporter.
Reread Dave's email. It's pretty dickish.
I'm not on board with the mildly snide tone of the above comment, but I do agree with the basis. That part of the post didn't sit well with me. It would be one thing to see it in the comments -- it wouldn't be out of the ordinary -- but it really stuck out in the post. It sounds like something that was written impulsively and escaped editing. In other words, it does sound unprofessional, and for that reason it contrasts with the rest of the writing here.
"a host of tourney bids with some fun runs to the Sweet 16 or whatever. Michigan basically abdicated on being a powerhouse when they hired Beilein."
I don't have a problem with Beilein's recruiting, but I do have a problem with your attitude here. We shouldn't be shooting for tourney bids with the occasional run to the middle of the tourney. We should be shooting for regular runs to the middle of the tourney with the occasional deeper run. Yes, Izzo is a hell of a coach and has a head start on Beilien. Yes, it's going to take time to get the same sort of recent accomplishments that MSU has amassed. But to accept remaining behind them on a season by season basis is asinine. There's no reason we shouldn't start regularly finishing ahead of State soon. As in, the season after next.
Define "regularly" finishing ahead of State. If you think that Michigan should consistently field a better basketball team than MSU in just two years, you are in for a lot of frustration.
In just two years? No. I'm saying by year four of Beilien's regime we should. Regularly being 60 or 70% of the time. Winning 8 out of 10 against them at Crisler and at least splitting at the Bres. Maybe I will end up frustrated, but I'd rather have overly high hopes for the team and be disappointed than have low expectations and be surprised.
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