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Mailbag!

By Brian — September 15th, 2009 at 10:56 AM — 64 comments
Filed under:
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  • game theory
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Brian, when was the last time that Michigan won and all 3 of our traditional rivals lost (like on Saturday)? Has this ever happened?
Thanks,
Mike Hamberg

The answer to this can be found about 15 minutes deep into yesterday's podcast. Mwa ha ha.

…

Okay: Jamiemac did the research and the last time this happened was October 2nd, 2004.

  1. Michigan blew out Indiana 35-14.
  2. Ohio State lost in overtime to Northwestern 33-27.
  3. Michigan State got smoked by Iowa 38-16.
  4. And Notre Dame got annihilated by Purdue 41-16.

I'll take Saturday over those results easy. We also brought this up on the podcast: this sort of event needs a name so we can refer to [NAME] I, [NAME] II, and so on with Saturday marking the AFL-NFL merger, as it were. If we want we can count backwards from there and let the 2004 event be 0—it predates the blog—and any previous be negative. But we need a name. MGoMinions, you have your charge.

On that play at the end of the game when Clausen went deep on 2nd and 10 against Warren, I am pretty confident that the fly pattern was not called from the huddle. I think Weis probably had a much more conservative play called (like a hitch or quick out or comeback on the sideline) but as soon as Warren rolled up into press-man, the WR and the QB automatically know that the WR is going to run a jet.  So, while I agree 100% that Weis should have run the ball on second - or at least gone away from Warren, who was in his guy's shirt on all but two plays - I don't think he called for the Home Run. 

What a game for tons of recruits to attend, btw.  Perfect.

Nicholas Marietti

Whoah: I've been arguing that throwing the ball on second and ten is a good idea as long as it's not some crazy bomb. Just because Warren is in press coverage doesn't mean you can't get Rudolph open or slip Hughes out of the backfield or do any number of other things that don't involve a long sideline route against Donovan Warren. And you certainly don't let your QB check to a balls-to-the-wall call when going 35 is called for. Especially with timeouts you don't care about. Take one and get it right.

Aaaand now lets get to the emails that have flooded my mailbox about quarterbacks not named Tate Forcier:

Brian,

I understand that we need to have two viable QBs b/c of the always possible (GOD-FORBID) chance of injury to the one, but what are the chances that we can utilize DR as a WR? If not this year, how about next year (When Gardner is here)? It seems that DR would burn almost everyone trying to cover him, if he has the ability to catch. Thanks!

Mark

This, or a variant of it, has been rampant speculation anywhere one Michigan fan can communicate to another: what do we do with a man who is made of dilithium now that we have all converted to the Church of Tate? In two words: I dunno.

This year you have to keep him at quarterback and work on his ability to play the position as extensively as possible. If Michigan's up 38 against Eastern all remaining offensive drives should be Robinson throwing every down. Establishing himself as a viable option at QB will make his cameos throughout the rest of the season more effective and provide Michigan some non-Sheridan depth at a position that really needs it. That's the rest of this year.

As for next year, and beyond… even that's tough. At this point I assume you dearly want to redshirt Devin Gardner (about whom more in a sec), which would be difficult if Robinson moved to another position. At the same time, you don't want Robinson wiling his time away on the bench; you probably want both Forcier and Robinson on the field.

How do you do that if Robinson's a quarterback? I think you play two quarterbacks. We saw a little bit of this in the last game when Forcier motioned out into the slot and Robinson basically became a wildcat QB; in the future, especially when Minor and Brown leave, I think you might see a good deal of both QBs in the same backfield, with Robinson acting as a sort of Percy Harvin jet ninja who actually throws several time a game. If it works really, really well it might be the base offense.

While we're on the topic, here's a prescient email from before the ND game:

Brian,
After watching the Michigan-Western Michigan on Saturday, not only was I relieved by finally attending a win in the season-opener, but I was also intrigued by the possibilities of the two-quarterback system (not even going to say three-quarterback system, because that would mean DEATH). Tate and Denard reminded me of a very-poor man's version of Florida in 2006 with Chris Leak and Tim Tebow.  With Tate in the game the defense expects him to throw but he has a threat to run (Leak), and with Denard in the game the defense expects him to run with a smaller threat to throw (Tebow). This opens the door up for big plays with the defense cheating one way or the other. If Denard can get into the game around 20-25 plays per game, and can be semi-effective throwing the ball I think the ceiling for the offense is very high. Then again, we are talking about two freshmen, and it was only Western Michigan, but even the possibility that Michigan has two viable, complementary quarterbacks (that aren't last year's quarterbacks) got me excited for the rest of the season.

So, I was wondering what you think we can expect from the two-quarterback system for the rest of the year... and if this scheme is successful going forward, should we plan on this being the norm, or just a way to see which quarterback will separate himself from the other?
Thanks,
Dave Murray
BBA 2008

We all witness Forcier achieve separation last week but that does not mean Robinson, who should improve more rapidly than Forcier because he's farther away from his ceiling, won't get viable towards the end of the year. It's going to be very hard for opposing safeties to not come up when Robinson starts running around, and at some point this year he will pull up and hit someone running wide open. Against Notre Dame's blitz-mad offense in his second game, Robinson was not prepared. He'll be way more viable two months from now against mid-level Big Ten teams. Don't expect him to be as small a part of the offense going forward as he was against Notre Dame.

And now to Devin Gardner:

Brian,

Has the success of Tate Forcier in the early going had any affect on the commitment of Devin Gardner?

U of M in TX

This is another question I've gotten a dozen times and can only really answer with "I don't know." But when Gardner committed he knew there were two freshman quarterbacks in front of him and that one of them would likely be an entrenched starter when he arrived. He's made several comments in the aftermath of his commitment to the effect of "I am a strong Michigan commitment," and yes everyone says that up until the point they don't but he can't say much else to reassure us and has made no motion that would indicate a soft commitment.

So I don't think so. And it's not like the situation anywhere local is much better. Ohio State snubbed him in favor of Montana's kid and with "Lebron in Cleats" looking decidedly un-Lebron he'd have to wait for two years behind Pryor anyway, and given the quarterback depth at Ohio State (virtually none) a redshirt might not be possible. And no other major local program is spread friendly except Penn State, which already has Kevin Newsome, Paul Jones, and Robert Bolden in the last two classes.

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:11 AM | let's hope DG sees what tate (Score:1)
ish
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7692

let's hope DG sees what tate has done and instead of thinking "i should go elsewhere" he thinks "wow, look what these coaches can do for my game."

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:11 AM | DG (Score:1)
MLAWyer
MLAWyer's picture
Joined: 01/23/2009
MGoPoints: 18

I remember that Gardner played WR at several camp stops over the summer and acquitted himself quite well. What was the reason for that? I assume he will play quarterback exclusively here to develop there, but if he redshirts then still has two years to sit behind Forcier, could we see him out wide?

"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing." - Bo Schembechler

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:11 AM | D Rob (Score:1)
Eye of the Tiger
Eye of the Tiger's picture
Joined: 09/14/2009
MGoPoints: 1054

You are right that D Rob needs to work on his passing game before he's truly a viable QB, but there are things he can do on the field now that we haven't really tried yet. i.e. handing the ball off to Minor/Brown. That opens things up for the zone-read option, by creating mystery as to whether D Rob will keep the ball or give it to Minor/Brown. We saw Tate run this a few times against ND, but basically every time D Rob was in the game as QB, you knew he was going to get the carry, so Tenuta stacked the line.

When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing. -Bo

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:27 AM | Name? (Score:1)
GoBlueScott
GoBlueScott's picture
Joined: 11/18/2008
MGoPoints: 62

Schaderday

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:23 AM | Royal flush? (Score:1)
bigmac
bigmac's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 96

Royal flush?

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:23 AM | Three headed beast? (Score:1)
speakeasy
speakeasy's picture
Joined: 04/24/2009
MGoPoints: 545

I'd say give Denard enough reps to make him a serivceable thrower, give Gardner enough time next year to adjust and get his stuff together(a redshirt or not), and then in two years time we can line up with Tate behind center and Denard and Gardner on the flanks or as backs.
The possibilities here are beyond endless.

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:26 AM | SLAM (Score:1)
UMphd
UMphd's picture
Joined: 10/06/2008
MGoPoints: 81

Short for Grand Slam Saturday. 4 good things all together.

"OSU's loss completed The Michigan Slam late Saturday night."

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:03 PM | I like the "Michigan Slam" (Score:1)
GD18
GD18's picture
Joined: 06/24/2009
MGoPoints: 26

It works in golf and tennis.

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:29 AM | mislukken dag (Score:1)
Maize4Blue
Maize4Blue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 280

"Day of Fail" in Dutch. Though shorten it to 1 word: mislukkendag

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:33 AM | What is (Score:1)
GoBlueScott
GoBlueScott's picture
Joined: 11/18/2008
MGoPoints: 62

Day of Win in Dutch?

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:57 AM | not good enough (Score:1)
Maize4Blue
Maize4Blue's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 280

winnende dag

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:30 AM | I like Schaderday. I love (Score:1)
MaizeAndBlueWahoo
MaizeAndBlueWahoo's picture
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 11814

I like Schaderday. I love Schaderday. GoBlueScott FTW.

"We've beaten Michigan the last four years.  So where's the threat?"

- Mark Dantonio

Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:31 AM | Names (Score:1)
ross03
Joined: 08/06/2009
MGoPoints: 134

Grandslamdenfreude?
Shadenslam?

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:33 AM | WHFTN (Score:1)
medals
medals's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 345

Wolverine Happy Fun Time Nexus

Proud member of the 6/30/2008 circle of trust.

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:36 AM | The Day of ... (Score:1)
Rush N Attack
Rush N Attack's picture
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 526

Infinite Gladness?

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:38 AM | I think this is straight forward (Score:1)
miksong@gmail.com
miksong@gmail.com's picture
Joined: 08/21/2008
MGoPoints: 0

Lets venture into the world of horse betting:

Superfecta - a bet that you can pick the first four finishers in a race in the right order

plus

Schadenfreude

= Schadenfecta

Ex. The students shouted together in jubilation after it was announced that Michigan hit the Schadenfecta on Saturday

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:59 AM | Yes! (Score:1)
maxr
Joined: 09/06/2009
MGoPoints: 63

Yes, a million times yes!

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:42 AM | Rivalpocalypse. (Score:1)
Subrosa
Subrosa's picture
Joined: 08/16/2008
MGoPoints: 325

Rivalpocalypse.

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:57 AM | ding ding ding! (Score:1)
wolverine1987
wolverine1987's picture
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 2928

ding ding ding!

"Everyone gets dumped Gabe. Let me give you some advice: a little coverup on your Adams Apple will make it appear smaller. Which will make you appear less like a transvestite." 

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:25 PM | I like this (Score:1)
ttifiblog
ttifiblog's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 2703

because its not just michigan specific.

we should email stephen colbert to do a "word" on this.

http://ttifi.blogspot.com/ for interesting vids

http://ttifiblog.tumblr.com/ for interesting pics

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:45 AM | In terms of the [NAME] day I (Score:1)
Koyote
Koyote's picture
Joined: 09/17/2008
MGoPoints: 307

In terms of the [NAME] day

I like "Day of Great Schadenfreude"

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:47 AM | Fourgasm (Score:1)
Engin77
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 2095

*nm*

Taking it one week at a time

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:01 PM | Engin77 (Score:1)
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7894

Just wanted to give you some kudos for researching this too. I saw your forum thread yesterday and meant to comment, but got tied up with work.

Did you propose MGOBlueMoon, ro something like that? I actually like that. I like the sound of celebrating more frequent MGoBlueMoons.

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

MSU/IU at the JCB

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:20 PM | Thanks, JamieMac (Score:1)
Engin77
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 2095

I did propose GoBluemoon, as in "once in a GoBluemoon"; MGoBluemoon is a fine adaptation. And it is something we'd all like to see happen *much* more often.

While doing the research for the thread, I found five times in the 90's and early 2000's where OSU and MSU lost, but ND beat Navy(thrice) or Rutgers(twice). So close.

Taking it one week at a time

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:30 PM | Nice (Score:1)
jamiemac
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7894

Those were some terrible Navy and Rutger teams back then. The MGoBlueMoon had no chance, but, hey a two-thirds moon aint all that bad.

Yeah, I saw the other instances and each one brought back a lot of memories.....i may have to break out my Diarist pen and write some tributes to past MGoBlueMoons......actually, maybe it should be GoBlueMoon, but since this is the first time its happened within the blog's history we are under MGoBlueMoon I.

Regardless, I thought the answer was going to be the day of the 2003 OSU win. I knew PSU smoked MSU that day and I thought the Orange beat ND. But, alas, that result was a week later and the Irish rolled somebody (stanford, i think) that day.

I spent the afternoon leading up to the podcast recording on Sunday looking for it and it pleases me to know I was not the only one curious about it.

Go Blue!!

Help My Friend Allison Fight ALS 

MSU/IU at the JCB

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:35 PM | Bingo (Score:1)
ommeethatsees
ommeethatsees's picture
Joined: 08/08/2009
MGoPoints: 357

Bingo

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:48 AM | Hat Trick (Score:1)
Mgobluefanatic1
Joined: 07/01/2008
MGoPoints: 12

Hat Trick - The opposite of "The Horror"

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September 15th, 2009 at 4:02 PM | Rorroh? (Score:1)
MCalibur
MCalibur's picture
Joined: 07/16/2009
MGoPoints: 2181

Rorroh?

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:48 AM | What are the other effects (Score:1)
casmooth
casmooth's picture
Joined: 11/21/2008
MGoPoints: 163

of having Tate and Denard both in the game at once. Neither of the two are huge guys, so how would we be forced to change our blocking strategy since we would possibly have an empty backfield with the two of them in at the same time?

HAIL.

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:51 AM | Syzygy Saturday (Score:1)
jlcoleman71
Joined: 07/15/2008
MGoPoints: 128

I vote for "Syzygy Saturday"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syzygy

For the X-Files episode, see Syzygy (The X-Files).

In broadest terms, syzygy is a kind of unity, especially through coordination or alignment, most commonly used in the astronomical and/or astrological sense.[1] Syzygy is derived from the Late Latin syzygia, "conjunction," from the Greek (syzygos).

Syzygial, adjective of syzygy, describes the alignment of three or more celestial bodies in the same gravitational system along a plane.

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September 15th, 2009 at 11:52 AM | Multiple Iterations (Score:1)
NHWolverine
NHWolverine's picture
Joined: 07/14/2009
MGoPoints: 36

With whatever phrase wins I think there have to be multiple iterations.

Using my favorite suggestion so far:

Rivalpocalypse - M wins and ND, OSU, MSU lose
Ultra Rivalpocalypse - M wins by beating OSU/ MSU or ND and other two rivals also lose.

For example: "Saturday's Rivalpocalypse is the first since the Ultra Rivalpocalypse of 2009."

"Well, I think I made my position clear there."
- L.C.

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:03 PM | Name for Saturday's Game itself: "The Resurrection". (Score:1)
M-Dog
M-Dog's picture
Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 6366

Fitting, especially coming against Notre Dame.

(Sorry, don't have a name for when all the Rivalry Planets align any better than what's already been posted.)

M'Dog

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:21 PM | +1 (Score:1)
pfloyd99
pfloyd99's picture
Joined: 08/10/2008
MGoPoints: 3

I second "the Resurrection". Fitting.

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September 15th, 2009 at 9:16 PM | +1 Schadenfecta +1 (Score:1)
bobmurph
bobmurph's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 1560

+1 Schadenfecta
+1 Resurrection

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:00 PM | NAME (Score:1)
statusepilepticus
Joined: 10/05/2008
MGoPoints: 5

I propose the name MUNDUS JOVIALIS, as it requires the alignment of the four moons of Jupiter to make the perfect eclipse.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galilean_moons

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:06 PM | Super-MMON-fecta (Score:1)
wjknox3
Joined: 11/21/2008
MGoPoints: 105

I offer that such a weekend of four-cornered success be deemed "Super-MMON-fecta." M for UM, M for MSU, O for OSU and N for the Domers. I would also offer that we were one factor shy of not only having each of our 3 rivals lose, but lose to underdogs along with UM winning as a dog. CMU and UM were dogs that won. If USC had been an underdog, that would have been the Super-MMONDog-fecta....akin to a Royal Flush whereas the Super-MMON-fecta is a straight flush.

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:45 PM | Or, with a tip of the hat to the MGo prefix.... (Score:1)
wjknox3
Joined: 11/21/2008
MGoPoints: 105

we could go with Super-MMNO-fecta

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September 15th, 2009 at 1:01 PM | Brain (Score:1)
GoBlueScott
GoBlueScott's picture
Joined: 11/18/2008
MGoPoints: 62

Asplode

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:06 PM | UberSchadenfreude (Score:1)
OldBlue74
OldBlue74's picture
Joined: 07/31/2009
MGoPoints: 46

UberSchadenfreude pretty well says it all, taking maximum delight in the misfortunes of others.

Although I have to admit I like Rivalpocalypse too.

"Men, we're going to make a few changes here." - Bo Schembechler, Spring of 1969

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:08 PM | D-Rob's Future Position (Score:1)
NCWolverine
NCWolverine's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 47

I think he will succeed wherever he decides to play. The idea of a two-headed QB beast(s) is pretty cool, and given RR ability to craft the O based on the talents, the sky is the limit. However, I can also see him looking at the depth at CB going forward and switch to that side of the ball. If I remember correctly, Florida wanted him as an ATH/CB. I think it would be AWESOME to see his speed on that side of the ball, paired with CB Turner, for a serious shut-down secondary. In addition, he could play some on O ala Charles "Heisman Trophy Winner" Woodson. That is all.

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:13 PM | I think it would be best if (Score:1)
Sgt. Wolverine
Sgt. Wolverine's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 3523

I think it would be best if the name for this great occurrence didn't involve the word schadenfreude. It's getting to be a bit overused, and a day this special deserves something more creative.

I suggest The Tetralogy. Hey, it features three tragedies, so it works, right?

Sportscenter.com raves: Sgt. Wolverine, "Michigan's biggest fan"!

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:17 PM | I like the "Grand Slam" (Score:1)
ERich79
ERich79's picture
Joined: 09/06/2009
MGoPoints: 0

The "Grand Slam" idea is the best I think from the comments. 4 great things happen on a Saturday. We win and are rivals lose.
Also I think through are next two games D.Robinson should get more reps than he has been getting so he can get more practice in.

www.mgobluetalk.blogspot.com

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:25 PM | Agree, but (Score:1)
Engin77
Joined: 07/02/2008
MGoPoints: 2095

something needs to be added to make it uniquely ours, to personalize it.

Like the "Tiger Slam" signifies hold all four of golf's major titles at once, as oppose to the original winning of all four in a single calendar year.

Taking it one week at a time

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:29 PM | Blue Screen of Death (Score:1)
hokiewolf
hokiewolf's picture
Joined: 11/11/2008
MGoPoints: -4214

My suggestion . . .

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:35 PM | Multiple Quarterbacks (Score:1)
Proclus
Joined: 10/22/2008
MGoPoints: 65

I haven't seen it mentioned much (perhaps because it's so obvious) but might Rodriguez's seeming fixation on the notion of playing multiple quarterbacks since he arrived at Michigan have something to do with the memory of his last game at West Virginia, during which a freak thumb sprain to Pat White almost certainly cost him the chance to play for the MNC? I'm not sure how many meaningful snaps White's backup took before that game, but, to hear Rodriguez talk now, he seems to be intent on developing Denard to the point where he is not merely a competent backup, but an interchangeable starter. I get the impression his experience in the Pittsburgh game, coupled perhaps with other examples such as Oregon's implosion after Dennis Dixon went down in 2007, has convinced him that the best way for a spread-option team to succeed is to have multiple starters at quarterback (not necessarily because option quarterbacks are more likely to be injured, but because the spread-option system requires a quarterback with certain skills and knowledge of the offense to function well).

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:45 PM | Denard needs a chance to prove (Score:1)
DC Dave
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 4

himself at QB. It is becoming evident that Forcier is going to be Michigan's long-term starter but he has been on campus since January, whereas Robinson just got here. Even if it is unrealistic to expect Robinson to overtake Forcier for the starting QB spot, he needs to be given the chance to compete and that means more time to develop at the position.

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:51 PM | Bo-Slammer (Score:1)
Ziff72
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 5142

Bo Slam-Work in Bo
A Maize Out-Everything today turned for the Maize

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:53 PM | MGoJudgement - OR - Grand (Score:1)
joeyb
joeyb's picture
Joined: 10/12/2008
MGoPoints: 11301

MGoJudgement

- OR -

Grand Slam

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September 15th, 2009 at 12:54 PM | I like (Score:1)
TSWC
TSWC's picture
Joined: 09/08/2009
MGoPoints: 547

I like these suggestions so far:

* Fourgasm
* Michigan Slam
* Schadenfecta (though I think this works best for when the three rivals lose, not requiring an M win)
* Super-MMON-fecta

Along the -fecta line, NOM-NOM-fecta works in these days of lolcat relevance.

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September 15th, 2009 at 1:03 PM | Religious parodies are always (Score:1)
saveferris
saveferris's picture
Joined: 07/02/2009
MGoPoints: 3078

Religious parodies are always good....how about "Good Saturday"?

 

"...what do you say, is it the new Bluesmobile or what?"

"Fix the cigarette lighter."

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