Hoops Preview: Rutgers
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#29 Michigan (17-10, 7-7 B1G) at #127 Rutgers (13-15, 2-13) |
---|---|
WHERE |
The RAC Piscataway, New Jersey |
WHEN | 6:30 pm ET, Wednesday |
LINE |
Michigan -6 (KenPom) Michigan -8.5 (Vegas) |
TV |
BTN PBP: Brandon Gaudin Analyst: Shon Morris |
Right: Everything about this picture makes me laugh. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]
THE US
Michigan is still in good position to make the tournament; they're on all 116 projected brackets that comprise the current matrix. This, unfortunately, is a game that can do much more harm than good; a win keeps them in relatively the same position, while a loss would be a disaster.
Thanks, Delany.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | ORtg | SIBMIHHAT | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 3 | Corey Sanders | So. | 6'2, 181 | 75 | 28 | 90 | Yes | |||||||||||
Huge-usage, shoot-first PG tasked with carrying offense, does so inefficiently. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 5 | Mike Williams | Jr. | 6'2, 198 | 65 | 18 | 110 | Yes | |||||||||||
Surprisingly effective offensive rebounder, very ineffective shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 35 | Issa Thiam | Fr. | 6'9, 190 | 40 | 13 | 89 | Kinda | |||||||||||
Just A Shooter™ type... who makes 30% of his threes with a 20% turnover rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 33 | Deshawn Freeman | Jr. | 6'7, 225 | 66 | 24 | 98 | Very | |||||||||||
RU's best rebounder, disruptive defender, gets to line, awful FT shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 34 | CJ Gettys | Jr. | 7'0, 280 | 54 | 20 | 104 | Very | |||||||||||
Burly grad transfer rebounds well, blocks some shots. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 0 | Nigel Johnson | Jr. | 6'1, 186 | 64 | 23 | 100 | Kinda | |||||||||||
At 32% on a healthy number of attempts, RU's most reliable three-point shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 11 | Eugene Omoruyi | Fr. | 6'6, 230 | 31 | 18 | 80 | Very | |||||||||||
Seeing increased role despite bad shooting and a 30% turnover rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 2 | Shaquille Doorson | So. | 7'0, 270 | 20 | 11 | 92 | Very | |||||||||||
Decent offensive rebounder and shot-blocker, rarely shoots. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
In their first year under Steve Pikiell, this Rutgers squad is already substantially better than any of their teams under Eddie Jordan; they bottomed out at #279 on KenPom last year. That makes this team's #127 rank look downright decent, and they have managed to hang relatively close with some decent teams; they're still among the worst major-conference squads in the country.
The offense is best summed up by RU's best player, sophomore point guard Corey Sanders, who leads the Big Ten with a 31.7% shot share while making 40% of his twos, 33% of his threes, and 59% of his free throws. Sanders is a better player than the numbers indicate since he's forced to create the vast majority of his shots; with the surrounding talent, though, he's forced to do the best he can with a bad shot selection.
Here's another way of looking at it: guard Mike Williams has the best ORating among Rutgers players getting at least 40% of their minutes in conference play. That ORating (109.8) ranks him 42nd in the Big Ten; Michigan has five players in the top 21.
Here's one more: freshman Issa Thiam has attempted 77 of his 103 shots from beyond the arc, making them at a 30% clip. He's 7-for-33 on three-pointers in Big Ten games with one assist and nine turnovers. He doesn't rebound. He's started 16 games, including each of their last five.
The Rutgers defense, at least, is much better than their offense. That said, I'm rather skeptical that starting center CJ Gettys...
...can keep up with Moe Wagner.
THE RESUME
Rutgers got through nonconference play with a deceptive 11-2 record; they lost by double digits against the only teams they played that are currently ranked in the top 185 on KenPom. Their two conference wins have come by a combined three points against Nebraska and Penn State.
They did, somehow, take Wisconsin to overtime before losing by seven at MSG, and they had a late six-point lead at Northwestern in their most recent game only to be outscored 21-11 down the stretch.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Rutgers has the worst offense in the conference by nearly nine points per 100 possessions. Their team shooting splits are abhorrent: 41/29/55 (2P%/3P%/FT%) with each individual split the worst in the B1G. They're merely 12th in turnover rate. They do one thing well: rebound their misses, presumably because opponents are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of them.
The defense is average by Big Ten standards, though it looks like Rutgers has benefited from some major three-point luck: they're allowing the lowest three-point percentage in the conference despite giving up the third-highest rate of attempts. Even so, Michigan should look to attack the interior; while RU blocks a healthy number of shots, their paint defense is otherwise mediocre, and they foul a lot.
THE KEYS
Win the game. A bubble team playing Rutgers has but one goal.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 6.
Turn this into a shooting contest and it should be no contest at all.
ELSEWHERE
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:12 PM ^
So if losing does more harm than winning does good, does that make this a can't-lose game instead of a must-win?
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
In other words, NCAA Div I basketball.
Unlike football, there are no bad wins in baskeball. Struggle all you want. Just don't lose games. And don't lose games against teams that don't win games. Bonus points for winning games against teams that win lots of games.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:14 PM ^
Is that the trophy for the BCS champion in the background? Why the hell is the scarlet knight protecting it?
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:19 PM ^
You beat me to it. Why on earth is that trophy back there? Unless ESPN used to haul that around to their primetime games and this picture was taken in like 2006.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^
They were so close to winning it until Jim Harbaugh rolled into Piscataway and shattered their dreams.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
Odd. Yesterday I somehow came across a video of Mike Dantoni and Cincinnati Bearcats upsetting #7 Rutgers and robbing them of their National Title hopes. I thought maybe I was in the twilight zone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogkBy9tdgkM
Seeing the trophy just confirms it.
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:14 PM ^
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^
OK, that's different then.
I can definitly see the Rutgers connection.
No, wait . . . still doesn't make any fucking sense.
February 23rd, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
My favorite picture is the background for when Michigan has the ball. It shows the Minutemen (although I don't know what their association with Rutgers is) looking bored with their cannon. Shortly after half when Rutgers got their first first down, the Michigan fans (and there were a lot of them) started chanting, "Shoot the cannon. Shoot the cannon.". It was pretty funny.
They did fire them off when a Rutgers player picked up a fumble and scampered into the end zone. Not so fast, my Minutemen friends. Flag on the play. First down Michigan.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:18 PM ^
I think Walton gets a double-double. Something like 18 points, 31 rebounds. All 31 are defensive rebounds. Because Rutgers misses all their shots.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:21 PM ^
That pic must be photoshopped. No chance Rutgers ever came that close to the trophy.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
A lobster?! Wedged with its own meat pick just prior to consumption? Why yes, I believe it does.
Note: The patterning on the lower extremities indicates the lobst'a is gravid. There will be more of them.
February 23rd, 2017 at 6:52 AM ^
Could that be considered a Freudian Slip?
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^
My bet is no. UM Football wins again.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:41 PM ^
This is the part where I remind folks that weird shit sometimes happens. Rutgers ABSOLUTELY had Wisconsin on the ropes a few weeks ago (game was in Jersey), but choked it away in an OT loss. And that was a healthy Wisconsin team.
The boys still have to show up tonight. I'm confident they will.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^
The game was actually at MSG (part of the bball/hockey Big Ten Day or whatever they call it) but your greater point stands that Rutgers, while definitely not even an average team, plays hard despite their lack of talent.
February 22nd, 2017 at 6:07 PM ^
You're absolutely correct. That game was at MSG with a lot of Wisconsin fans in the stands. Rutgers had them by the throat - the score was in the low 40's with only a couple minutes left in regulation.
February 22nd, 2017 at 6:29 PM ^
and they're better than us at defense. This is certainly no gimme. Have to show up tonight.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:42 PM ^
Are we entertaining any football recruits at the game tonight?
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:26 PM ^
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:26 PM ^
No, but Rutgers is bringing 100 basketball recruits.
February 22nd, 2017 at 4:44 PM ^
I love that the SIBMIHHAT scale for Rutgers only goes to "Kinda."
But -- it's Rutgers. I will be mad if any of them make a three. I'm mad they're playing in a conference game against Michigan instead of, say, UConn. :-)
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:04 PM ^
The trophy I'm pretty sure is for the Big East title. My freshman year we would have won it outright I believe and gone to a BCS bowl if they won. I'm not sure if that picture is from the same year, but it's one time where I can think of that trophy being there.
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:57 PM ^
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:11 PM ^
February 22nd, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
DO NOT LOSE
February 22nd, 2017 at 6:31 PM ^
unless Gettys and Doorson decide to eat half our team. Those are some big boys.
February 22nd, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
to a win than it seems, Ace. The RPI formula arbitrarily weights road wins heavily, regardless of opponent, which is how teams like Princeton (!!!) are ahead of us in RPI despite having a single top 100 win. Those teams rack up road wins against bad teams and it helps quite a bit in the formula. It's also why some bigger teams will "game" the system by scheduling a couple easy road games in the non-conference.
At least cosmetically, this will double our number of road wins and probably pop us into the top 50 of RPI.
Not a gimme though! Have to show up.
February 22nd, 2017 at 7:06 PM ^
Forget it Gettys, it's Chinatown.
February 23rd, 2017 at 8:57 AM ^
Is that "knight" wearing track pants to go with his armor? Wow.
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