THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#13 Michigan (17-9) vs #24 Purdue (14-13)	the dead eyes of engineering
WHERE	Mackey Arena West Lafayette, IN
WHEN	2PM Saturday
THE LINE	Purdue –2, Michigan W 43% (KenPom) Purdue –1.7, Michigan W 42% (Torvik)
TELEVISION	ESPN

THE US

Seth's graphic:

click for big

Michigan is coming off a grit-bucket, lunch-pail, hard-hat, American-working-class-portrayed-in-a-political-ad win at the previously impregnable RAC. They did it without Isaiah Livers and without much Brandon Johns, resorting to an extended period with Colin Castleton at the 4 that went better than it had any right to. Finding someone who's not a missed three away from a multi-trillion whenever called upon is a major development for Michigan with Livers's continued health issues.

Speaking of: there's no update on Livers. He traveled with the team and warmed up before Juwan Howard decided he should sit, so he is legitimately day-to-day. This is a quick turnaround, with only two days between this game and Rutgers. The Wisconsin game after this one isn't until Thursday; I'd expect Livers back then if he really was close to playing against Rutgers. Saturday… dunno.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

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Welcome to crazy town, folks. Purdue is the strangest team in the Big Ten and possibly the country. Purdue owns a 29-point win over MSU and a 36-point win over Iowa; they've also lost to Nebraska by 14 and are just 14-13 overall. Thanks in part to those three games Purdue has the second best home court advantage in the conference (Iowa is first), and Mackey will be desperate tomorrow.

That's because no matter what historically absurd conference you're playing in, being one game above .500 is poison for your NCAA tourney hopes. Per Torvik Purdue would be the third team out if the season ended today, but there's a strong chance the committee passes on a near-.500 Big Ten team for a team with near-identical numbers but a shinier win percentage. Purdue needs wins, and it needs them now. Hang on to your butts.

PERSONNEL

more Haarms tomorrow [Campredon]

In the absence of Carsen Edwards, Purdue resumes being a team that starts at C. This remains the Trevion Williams/Matt Haarms platoon. Haarms got hurt in the first half of the first matchup, paving the way for Williams to go off—this was the period in Michigan's season when every post they went up against got a career high. Williams went 15/27 from two, hit one of his three triples on the season, and grabbed 20 rebounds, six of them on offense. The kicker: two assists, zero turnovers.

Williams has an exceptionally good turnover rate for a back-to-the-basket big who's generating a large number of his own shots, and he's probably the best passing big man in the Big Ten. His A:TO rate in Big Ten play is 21:12, which is more like a secondary playmaker SG than a post hoss. And he is very much a post hoss, the #5 OREB guy nationally and a top 40 guy on defense.

There are a number of things Williams is not. He's not a shotblocker. He's a horrible free throw shooter (45% on 82 attempts this year). And he does put up a lot of off-balance garbage. He's shooting 53% from two in Big Ten play; you no doubt remember moaning "cumong man" to yourself after several of Williams's makes in the previous game. Playing him straight up got him 30 points on 27 two-point attempts even with what felt like some lucky bounces. Michigan doesn't have to go full Northwestern in the post; they do have to put some doubt in Williams's mind.

The other half of the platoon is windmill man Haarms, a half-foot taller and twenty pounds lighter than Williams. Haarms vs Williams is a straight D vs O switch:

Rebounding gets worse on both ends; opponent two point shooting drops nine points and free throw rate allowed halves as Purdue players just funnel everything to the windmill.

Haarms is the top shotblocker in the league and a decent scorer. He's not a giant usage guy like Williams (and this team can really use giant usage guys), and you can see he's nowhere near the rebounder that Williams is. He does have a little more shooting to his game; he's decent at the line and has a wee bit of stretch (10/27 from 3) developing.

Purdue never plays these two guys together, FWIW.

Purdue's dual centers are surrounded by a collection of misfit toys. There's no real point guard. Both guard-type substances who have significant assist rates pair those with TO rates higher than their A rates. Eric Hunter is nominally more point guard shaped so we'll slot him in at the 1. He's a sophomore who fits neatly into an archetype we're seeing a ton of in this big-dominated Big Ten: Not Just A Shooter, But Should Probably Be Just A Shooter.

Prime characteristics of these players include excellent three-point shooting (39% for Hunter), struggles inside the line (40% in league play), more twos than threes (135 vs 103), whisper-thin free throw rates (just 45 FTAs on the season), and A:TO ratios below one (18:20).

To basketball correctly someone's got to venture inside the three point line. Hunter is one of the primary options for Purdue despite being ill-suited for the task. One mitigating point about his issues inside the line: only about 10% of his twos are assisted; he is generating everything himself.

Hunter does have 10 unassisted threes on the season and may be a threat to rise up off of the dribble.

The other point guard type person is 6'7" Nojel Eastern, who could easily be mistaken for a power forward or NFL tight end. Eastern was the guy who induced us to add a brick to the team overviews but he's improved his shooting a fair bit. This only gets him to 33% in the midrange, but that's a lot better than, say, Rob Phinisee.

Eastern's problem is that for all his sizey size and bulky bulk almost two-thirds of his shots are other twos, and he never shoots threes. When he does get to the line he's 49% once there. He's got a 20 assist rate… and a 23 TO rate.

On the other hand he's a defensive POY candidate in the league. He's a bad offensive player who should be hidden more than he is—the perfect guy to slot in next to Carsen Edwards. That pairing was as major reason Purdue was an Elite Eight team last year, and sundering it is a major reason they're one game above .500 this time around.

High Point transfer Jahaad Proctor was flailing miserably before the first edition of this game but has bounced back somewhat. Proctor is another NJASBSPBJAS like Hunter, hitting 39% of his threes in conference play… and 39% of his twos. He'd be an excellent option to stick in a corner and take kickouts from Zavier Simpson; instead nobody can create shots and Proctor is stuck taking two thirds of his inside the line.

Outrageous Frenchman Evan Boudreaux has trundled from his little village in the Pyrenees into the starting lineup. Boudreaux is a 56-year-old chainsmoker who acts as a stretch four for the Boilers, shooting 49/32 and putting up solid rebound numbers for a senior citizen with emphysema. This has earned him the undying admiration of Billie Jean King.

Good luck to Senior Evan Boudreaux and the Purdue Men’s Basketball team in their season opener tonight against Green Bay!
Go, @eboudreaux12! @boilerball pic.twitter.com/1enwv5QCEX

— Billie Jean King (@BillieJeanKing) November 6, 2019

Boudreaux was an abominable defender; he's improved to the point where the fact that he's not Aaron Wheeler (who is cursed) on offense makes his presence a push for Purdue. Rory McIlroy is willing to overlook Boudreaux's defensive deficiencies because of their life-long bond.

Best of luck @eboudreaux12 in your final season at Purdue! Time to shine @boilerball https://t.co/6PCuXY9IOB

— Rory McIlroy (@McIlroyRory) November 6, 2019

He is very much a big when it comes to driving to the basket so in the event Livers is out, Colin Castleton is a good option for backup minutes at the four. As mentioned, the other option there is cursed. The golf world waits to hear of Boudreaux's latest exploits.

Best of luck to my friend and Pro Am partner Purdue Senior Evan Boudreaux @EBoudreaux12 and the Purdue Mens Basketball team in their season opener tonight against Green Bay! Go Boilers! @EBoudreaux12 @BoilerBall , #bigtenchamps , #elite8 , #ncaatourney pic.twitter.com/iCXuIHWeq8

— Ian Poulter (@IanJamesPoulter) November 6, 2019

Ironically, Boudreaux hates golf because it is a game for the filthy English, who he wishes all died at Agincourt.

Purdue's bench outside of the center platoon:

• SG Sasha Stefanovic. Just A Shooter hitting 38%. TO rate (17) a little high for a JAS.
• SF/PF Aaron Wheeler, who is cursed. He shot 58/37 last year in a promising freshman season. He is 33/24 this season. Every one of his threes goes halfway down. When it bounces out you can hear the ball moan curses. Aaron Wheeler stepped on the king of all ants this offseason.
• SG Isaiah Thompson, who you probably remember as the fourth-grader who wandered onto the court at Crisler and burned the building down with 14 points on 10 shot equivalents. Thompson is a freshman listed at 6'1", 165, in an act of roster chicanery so galactic that it nearly equals "350" pound Mike Onwenu. He's shooting 33/38, because it is hard for 4'8" guys to make twos. Closing him out is a priority; if he gets inside he's much less dangerous.

THE RELEVANT NUMBERS

Purdue factors in conference play:

Another game where shot volume parity, or anything close to it, should be a win.

Purdue plays a lot of iso ball (they're 12th in the conference in A/FGM), shoots a lot of twos despite being 12th in the conference at making them, and tries to make it up on the offensive boards. On defense they get a ton of steals but give up a ton of assists and a ton of three pointers; if Michigan can avoid TOs they should have success against this D. Last time out they shot 65% on twos and limited Purdue to two steals in a 50 minute game. Only 10 of those minutes had Haarms, though.

THE KEYS

this happened 27 times in the first game [Campredon]

Confuse Williams with intermittent doubles, and foul him if you are not named Teske. Williams is too good of a passer to constantly double, but Michigan has to find a way to make him uncomfortable. Purdue shooters have bounced back since the first meeting so there are only a couple guys you can really float off; Eastern and Wheeler remain prime candidates.

People not named Teske who find themselves guarding Williams in a bad spot should just hack the guy. He'll overwhelm Davis, Castleton, or any switches. Backup bigs should be in auto-foul mode in that eventuality; others should be willing to give up spare fouls.

Painter chess time. Michigan's defense suffocates threes and forces a lot of iso; Purdue is very bad at shooting from two and really avoids iso—per Synergy they're averaging slightly over two iso attempts per game. Purdue has always been excellent at getting shots on off-ball action; they largely failed to do so in the first game. Williams kept them afloat; other than Thompson's burst out of nowhere no other Boiler approached a 100 ORTG.

Less Williams time will put more of an onus on Painter to generate shots out of his misfit toys. Watching Painter and Beilein butt heads was always a joy; the coaching matchup here is going to be another bellwether for Howard long term.

The flipside of the above. Going one on one against Purdue is a deathtrap. They are 99th percentile at defending isos. They are 92nd percentile at defending PNR ball handlers. Michigan's generated a lot of good shots this year, including against this team, but a return game against Painter is going to be a stiff test for Michigan's ability to generate good shots from actions instead of individual play.

Play Castleton when you need backup 4 minutes. Purdue does not have a guy who's going to be a tough cover for Castleton at the 4, and his contributions were key in the Rutgers win. He's earned all minutes that might otherwise have gone to Nunez for the remainder of the season.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 2

This is either pessimistic (if Livers plays) or optimistic (if he doesn't).