Previously: Preseason Hoops Mailbag, The Story, Big Ten Roundtable Parts One and Two, Schedule Release

Basketball season begins in (checks calendar) oh dear, five days. It's time for our annual rundown of the roster. With this team, in particular, try not to get too hung up on position designations, particularly with the players who'll see time at the 2, 3, or 4. As I discussed in the preseason mailbag, there's a lot of positional versatility on this team. I'll mention which positions each player may play.

With that out of the way, we start in the backcourt with the players who are true-ish guards. Juwan Howard may have a full-blown point guard battle on his hands depending on what type of lineups he wants to field. I suspect he'll generally have a wing-type player at shooting guard, which means perpetually overlooked program guy Eli Brooks and Columbia grad transfer Mike Smith are going to fight it out for a limited number of available minutes. In his latest media availability, assistant coach Phil Martelli said regardless of who starts, replacing Zavier Simpson will be a group endeavor:

The offensive side of the ball, we have a lot of looks, a lot of packages and a lot of ways that we want to score. We want to play with that particular pace. I think where it has to go well is our three-point shooting has to be where we think that it is. We need to make long-range shots. Then we have to count on the playmaking abilities of Mike Smith, of Eli Brooks and of Franz [Wagner]. I don’t think any player can make up the amount of time that X had the ball, nor his creativity. His vision. I think it has to be a collective effort to run an efficient offense.

We're going to see a more egalitarian offense. Still, there's going to be a primary initiator, and we don't know who that's going to be yet.

#55 Eli Brooks

Year: Senior
Height/Weight: 6'1/185
Key Counting Stats: 32.0 MPG, 10.6 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.3 TOPG, 46/36/73 (2P%/3P%/FT%)
Key Advanced Stats: 17.7% usage, 10.9% assist rate, 12.9% TO rate, 1.5 fouls committed/40

While Simpson deserved every bit of his stalwart defensive reputation, Brooks showed last year that he was near or arguably even at X's level on that end of the floor. Michigan's two-point defense improved by over three percentage points with Brooks on the floor, according to Hoop Lens, and they suffered no drop-off when Brooks was running point with Simpson on the bench. Martelli loves his defense:

Some days he’ll go against Mike Smith, so Eli with the ball. I mentioned earlier, his IQ is just extraordinary. We have total confidence saying, ‘Okay, we’ll start our match-ups with Eli guarding the other team’s best player.’ You put all that package together, I thought there were times last year where he could be in the conversation for most improved player in the Big 10. I think the same could be true this year. He has really an extraordinary, if you want to call this preseason, he’s had it.

After three years of X running the show, the looming question is whether Brooks can be a Big Ten starter-level point guard. His defense is going to guarantee him a certain amount of time on the floor; if he's best utilized off the ball on offense, however, he could lose minutes to Smith if another ballhandler (looking at you, Franz Wagner) doesn't emerge to take the lead.

Experience in the system could help Brooks, who's at his best on offense working within the framework of the play, like on his execution as part of the double drag screen action shown in the GIF atop this section. When functioning as the primary ballhandler, he attacks looking to pass and is more effective when doing so—M scored in the 77th percentile on shots derived from Brooks P&R passes but he was only in the 57th percentile when using those possessions himself, per Synergy.

Brooks doesn't have Simpson's bag of tricks inside the arc, so his finishes around the basket generally come when his big man seals off the main rim protector. He has a more functional floater—16-for-35 on runners last year, in the 78th percentile—than I would've given him credit for if Synergy weren't here to keep track. You still probably want him more as a secondary ballhandling option than your go-to guy.

After two years of struggling from deep, Brooks connected on 36% of his 143 three-pointers last year, and given his solid free throw shooting he should be able to replicate that level of success. So long as he keeps up that marksmanship, he's best suited as a spot-up shooter. We'll probably see a lot of Wagner and/or less emphasis on the pick-and-roll with Brooks at the point, and when the matchup is right he'll see minutes as the de facto shooting guard.

At worst, Brooks is going to be a sixth man who'll get starter-level minutes in a lot of matchups; even if Smith starts, Brooks could close games because of his lockdown defense and high motor. If he hits the occasional shot off the dribble or ticks up his floater effectiveness a bit, he can take hold of the job and be a valuable starter who contributes at two positions.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the guards.]

#12 Mike Smith

Year: Senior
Height/Weight: 5'11/185
Key Counting Stats (with Columbia): 37.7 MPG, 22.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.5 APG, 3.0 TOPG, 47%/34%/81%
Key Advanced Stats: 33.9% usage(!), 30.2 assist rate, 13.5 TO rate, 5.1 fouls drawn/40

From when Smith committed to Michigan over the offseason:

Smith has been tasked with carrying a bad Columbia squad for three of the last four years—he was hurt for the majority of 2018-19, hence the Ivy-mandated fifth-year transfer—and has put up really impressive traditional stats with the middling efficiency you'd expect from a 5'11" guard taking on usage nearing 40%(!) in conference play last season.

Despite their need for a point guard, Michigan will use Smith in a different fashion. By not taking on nearly as much offense, Smith should be able to hit shots with more efficiency, and the additional talent around him should open up space for his off-the-dribble game. He graded out in the 77th percentile as a pick-and-roll ballhandler last season, per Synergy, and in the 84th percentile as an isolation scorer.

Smith went 62/116 (53%) at the rim in halfcourt sets last year even though only five of his makes were assisted, according to hoop-math. There was a high degree of difficulty attached to a lot of his shots.

Smith is a career 34% three-point shooter. Again, there's potential for more at Michigan if you dig deeper into the numbers. Smith had a quick trigger in transition; if you cut those out and look at halfcourt sets, he hit 37% of his threes last year, and 25 of his 45 makes were unassisted. He graded out in the 83rd percentile on spot-up plays and the 95th when taking a no-dribble jumper on such plays. The way he was used at Columbia masked his catch-and-shoot ability.

In a needed fit for Michigan, Smith is a high-volume distributor (30.2 assist rate in 2019-20) who takes care of the ball (13.5 turnover rate). He's got the potential to be the team's primary ballhandler if he can get that to translate to his new squad.

The more I watch Smith's Columbia tape, the more I like his fit with this team. If Michigan needs him to be more of a traditional point guard, he's capable of creating shots for himself and others in high screen and isolation situations. He's got a dangerous three-point shot off the dribble that forces defenders to go over screens or risk a quick pull-up, and he has stepback and sidestep threes in his arsenal.

Given Smith's stature and the role he took on at Columbia, he finished impressively well around the rim. He shows the feel, craft, and timing to get himself cleaner-than-expected looks in traffic. If the team needs him to go get a bucket, he's going to be comfortable trying to make it happen. He'll have more room to operate with better teammates at Michigan; he'll also face a significantly higher level of competition. Can he score with efficiency off the dribble in the Big Ten? The only way to find out is to wait and see.

That's not necessarily how Smith will be utilized, however. His single best skill is his spot-up shooting; he ranked in the 94th percentile when he shot off the catch without dribbling. Via The Athletic's Brendan Quinn, Smith knows he's going to have a different game at Michigan than he had at Columbia:

“I don’t know if I necessarily see myself like (Simpson) because I don’t need the ball,” Smith says. “I’m not a (ball-) dominant guard, where I need to come off ball screens to create. I feel like this team, a lot of these guys have played with each other and they have one more year in Coach Howard’s system, and it’s going to open up other doors for people to create for themselves, instead of one person having to create for them, which was what I saw when I watched the film. That’s why (Simpson) had nine assists per game, because he was creating for everybody else, which I can do, but, like, I don’t feel like I need to do that. I mean, if Coach tells me that’s what he needs me to do, then, hey, I’m going to dribble the ball like I’m James Harden and find everybody.”

Juwan Howard is unlikely to use Smith like James Harden. Still, if Michigan needs a jolt of offense at the point, Smith is the guy to put out there. His defense is a relative unknown but it's unlikely to be on the level of Brooks. That may make his best role one where he comes off the bench and Howard can manage his matchups. If he's drilling a ton of threes, though, it may be hard to keep him off the floor.

#3 Zeb Jackson

Year: Freshman
Height/Weight: 6'5/180
Recruiting Profile: 4-star, #11 SG, #87 overall (247 Composite), Hello post

Zeb Jackson, an Ohio prep star who came off the bench as a senior for a Montverde Academy squad loaded with top-level prospects, is a freshman combo guard, so he'll be brought along slowly if the team can afford it. A minor injury has interrupted a preseason where he's shown flashes but clearly been inconsistent, according to Martelli:

Zeb Jackson has been a little bit banged up. He got, I guess in football terms, he got a stinger in his shoulder one day. So he’s had some non-contact days, he’s had some contact days. Fabulous athlete and working really, really hard at the point guard spot. Streaky shooter but the streaks are like a rocket. When he’s going, he can really put the ball in the basket. What we’re working with is to make sure that he understands great shot, good shot, bad shot.

The freshman is a freshman. It'll probably take a while for the game to slow down for him. When it does, though, he's got the size (a lanky 6'5") and athleticism to be a big-time player. Isaiah Livers is already a fan:

“It’s that freak athleticism,” Livers said. “A guy gets past him, we don’t have to help as much as you do (with) a point guard who can’t jump as much. He’s going to go up and grab that ball off the rim, he’s going to block their shot. He’s very quick. He’s very twitchy, shifty. I don’t really know how to describe it. I closed out to him a couple times, and I’m not going to lie, he got me. He’ll go one way, go back the other way. I’m like, ‘Damn, this dude is quick!’

“That’s why I’m very excited to see how he turns out to play.”

Livers added that Jackson is Michigan's "shiftiest dude since Jordan [Poole]."

Most of the scouting data on Jackson is over a year old because of the pandemic and his move from big fish in Maumee, Ohio to just another D-I commit at Montverde. Our man Matt got an in-person look at him in the spring of 2018, when he was still growing into his current frame, and posted his evaluation at Endless Motor:

A true point guard with great size at 6’3, Zeb has great vision as a passer and is phenomenal as a playmaker that creates easy looks for teammates. A fluid athlete with good first step acceleration and a good handle, Jackson thrives breaking a defense down off the bounce while also having a legit stroke from beyond the arch as a scorer.

If the shot falls with consistency, Jackson could be almost exclusively a two-guard this season while waiting his turn at the point behind Brooks and Smith. In a normal year, he'd probably get sparing minutes and do most of his development behind the scenes; with this condensed schedule, not to mention the uncertainty of potential absences COVID-related or otherwise, he could be more of a consistent presence as Howard tries to keep his players fresh.

Jackson is an intriguing swing player for me. While Michigan doesn't need him to hit this season, he competed against the very best prospects in the country day in and day out at Montverde, and he's got a size/athleticism combo that the other guards don't possess. It's more likely Jackson's breakout comes next year when there aren't two seniors in front of him, but I wouldn't be shocked if he emerges as one of the conference's most promising freshmen while being a regular part of the rotation all year.