Hokepoints: First Down and a Long Way to Go
One of the most frustrating problems with Michigan's offense is they appear to be burning a lot of first downs by running Toussaint into stacked lines. Whether it's zone blocked or man, they've been tipping it the same with the same results. The concept has been discussed on here and will be again until it stops; my purpose today is to add some numbers to that discussion.
Love Affair with 2nd and Long. Excising all the non-normal situations (4th quarters, burning clock, attempting a comeback, 2-minute drill at the end of a half) here's a a quick breakdown of playcalls this year on first down:
- 101 handoffs to running backs for 3.0 YPC and 6 TDs
- 28 passes for 10.7 YPA, one interception, and 2 TDs
- 20 play-action passes for 17.8 YPA, one interception and 4 TDs
- 17 options for 5.6 YPA and a TD
- 7 called Gardner runs for 2.7 YPA
- 7 wide receiver runs for 10 YPA
- 4 screens for 5.8 YPA
- 2 false starts
Like basketball the efficiency of the things you do goes down the more you do them, and the efficiency of the counters goes up. I don't doubt that the ridiculous numbers for PA passes above are because it's five times more likely to be a handoff.
Michigan's is not the only bad offense that does this. The thing that MSU was doing when they had Le'Veon Bell was running him into stacked lines again and again to open up the occasional big play for a receiver or tight end. This burned a lot of first downs and killed a lot of drives but when you just need 17 points to win you'll take a high variance in drive results. What made it worthwhile was Bell was one of the best backs in the country at getting yards after contact. If a safety came down to fill the hole Bell could still run (or leap) over that guy and thus set up 2nd and manageable. This year they don't have the OL or the RBs to do that, so they line up to pass on 1st down far more often.
Borges doesn't have the RBs or the OL to do that and haven't adjusted. Instead he's gone the other direction, selling out even further with the unbalanced lines, and running even more often.
- UFR database (through Minn) says…
YPA, 1st Play of Drive | YPA, All 1st Downs | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pass | Run | Total | Run% | Pass | Run | Total | Run% |
2008 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 63.2% | 6.1 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 64.8% |
2009 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 56.7% | 5.6 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 65.3% |
2010 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 63.1% | 8.8 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 66.7% |
2011 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 73.8% | 8.1 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 70.9% |
2012 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 70.9% | 10.0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 64.2% |
2013 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 73.2% | 12.7 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 71.6% |
…that Michigan's drives are starting off with a whimper. If I take out 4th quarters and situations when Michigan is down more than two scores we're getting just 2.9 YPC on 1st down runs, which is over 73% of 1st down playcalls. But I showed the above because that's what Bill O'Brien was probably looking at when he and his coaches strategized for this game.
Let's play Being Bill O'Brien. This is how he responded. Here's the first play of the game:
[after the jump]
Michigan is shifting into its unbalanced formation; PSU already has 8 in the box, and all 11 players inside 10 yards. No guesses for what comes of this.
Here's the start of the next drive:
Michigan's unbalanced to the right; PSU has nine in the box. We run to the right. We get nothing.
Here's the next:
Again unbalanced. And there's eight in the box.
Next next next next next
Can you pick out the one above where Funchess burned them for a 59-yarder? Well yeah cause you can see the yard lines but anyway:
…they lined up in an Ace 3-wide with the twins side a stack—a passing look. PSU still ran a 4-3 against it because Michigan on 1st downs dur.
Can Michigan generate this response without bashing its head against a wall until opponents are just convinced we're insane? Yes. Those option plays mostly came out of shotgun/pistol formations and while they didn't work all the time they did generate 5.6 YPC despite running into lots of heavy stuff as well. That's not any better than what we were getting last year with the setup game, but right now we're looking up to last year.
October 15th, 2013 at 10:59 AM ^
"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
-Albert Einstein
October 15th, 2013 at 11:17 AM ^
It seems to me that insanity is doing anything and experiencing something other than the consequences of that action. What Dr. Einstein described wasn't insanity, but outright stupidity.
October 15th, 2013 at 12:25 PM ^
Yeah I'm pretty sick of constantly hearing that quote. Insanity has a clinical definition, and it's not similar to what Eistein said.
His quote isn't supposed to be an actual definition; one should take it in the same way as something like "Al Borges' picture is in the dictionary under 'stubborn'." It's a cute way of making a point -- nothing more.
October 15th, 2013 at 1:16 PM ^
Yeah, that quotation is thrown out in an attempt to sound "learned" but is usually used ignorantly.
October 15th, 2013 at 10:59 AM ^
derp, derp.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:06 AM ^
I don't want to read MGo anymore and am now scared (I said it) of Indiana.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:45 AM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 11:48 AM ^
Ego needs to be completely set aside during the games...when the calls aren't working, switch up the plan
October 15th, 2013 at 12:22 PM ^
extends far beyond Indiana. I am now scared of anything I perceive to be unbalanced. I demand symmetry. I have 3 pens on each side of my desk right now. My lunch box is on the floor because I don't have a second lunch box to place up here next to me. This is my safe place. This is my safe place.....
October 15th, 2013 at 1:15 PM ^
If you place your lunchbox in the middle of your desk, you only need one.
October 15th, 2013 at 3:11 PM ^
It went out 3 hours ago with a 'hip deal' or something.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:11 AM ^
I think anyone with half a brain can see it hasnt worked all year long and ask about maybe putting in a 1st down pass play?
October 15th, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^
Heiko's too cute around Al Borges and he's the best on the block by far. His question during Hoke's presser was more blunt than usual but was still vague enough for them to Fort Shembechler it. The rest of the crew have already written their articles and are just searching for blah blah quotes for filler.
The question needs to be more explicit, and highlight the analysis: "Penn State repeatedly put 8-9 guys in the box on first down, because the O-line tipped run, and you ran anyway. No other team in college football does this, and the result was the worst tailback performance in Michigan history. What makes you think seven men can block nine defenders if they just execute well enough?"
. . . the problem is that would burn the bridge, and reporters want access, even if they never do jack with it.
October 15th, 2013 at 1:18 PM ^
No other team in college football does this,...is a straw man. Other teams do in fact do this. It's just that they are teams that are more capable in general of running the ball than we are.
October 15th, 2013 at 1:59 PM ^
it would also be nice if we got the play set at the line of scrimage early enough to check down to another play once we see the jammed box of defenders (as a follow up question)
October 15th, 2013 at 11:17 AM ^
I better not see a write up similar to this next week. If in fact that happens I will not be watching michigan football for the rest of this season, for physical & mental health reasons.
All i know is that we should have no problems next year running HB iso,dives etc.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:20 AM ^
That's what they should be running NOW. Michigan's linemen could stand up in front of the defense on dives right now and they'd get more YPC. They continue to run this stretch that makes the linemen have to latch on to their blocks for longer.
Fitz can run.. but right now he's just dying tired.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:40 AM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 11:37 AM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 11:49 AM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 12:58 PM ^
Well. You did say "for the life of me I can't think of a reason" and then he told you a reason.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:50 AM ^
I believe this rumor has been debunked numerous times. Running your quarterback does not really increase his chances of getting injured.
October 15th, 2013 at 12:30 PM ^
Not really. The notion that a dual-threat gets injured significantly more often than a pocket passer has been debunked, but it would be silly to think that Gardner is just as likely to get injured running 5 times per game as 25 times per game. Statistical generalities don't necessarily apply to specific situations.
October 15th, 2013 at 1:19 PM ^
Well that plus the apparent alternative is "Pretend AJ Williams is a Left Tackle and get Gardner blindsided a couple times a game". I'm sure that's great for Devin's health...
October 15th, 2013 at 1:30 PM ^
I'm curious to see how it has been debunked, because it would seem to be a truism that a guy who takes 25 hits in a game is more likely to get hurt than a guy who takes 10 hits.
Under Carr, when our QBs had no designed running plays except the occasional sneak, we almost never had a QB knocked out of a game due to injury. Scott Driesbach got injured in practice in 1995 and Drew Henson developed a stress fracture over the summer of 2000, but the only in-game injury I can recall happened to Henne in 2007.
In contrast, under Bo our QBs (who frequently ran some option) often got injured. And under Moeller, Elvis Grbac was knocked out of the '92 OSU game - when he ran the option on the goal line. Then under RR, our QBs - be it Steven Threet, Tate Forcier or Denard - were frequently knocked out of games.
October 15th, 2013 at 1:53 PM ^
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/qb-fragility-update
Right now, there's no data that suggests dual-threat QBs are more likely to get injured than pocket-passer QBs.
October 15th, 2013 at 4:42 PM ^
Only measures games missed, and not "injuries." You can have a banged up QB who can't throw as well or run as fast and still play.
Also, it isn't really a matter of making Devin a passing QB vs. a running QB. It's how many runs he should get. I haven't seen any analysis that says running a QB (or anyone) 40 times has the same probability of injury as running him 15. The way you get hit passing vs. running may balance itself out, but the number of times you get hit can't be statistically insignificant.
October 15th, 2013 at 9:15 PM ^
The problem is that coaches aren't forthcoming with honest inury information, see Hoke's "It's just a boo-boo" comment every single time he's asked about injuries. As you say, many players play with some level of injury so, what consititutes an injury? I didn't want to get into the arbitrage of "this counts, but that doesn't" and so on...
The only objective and reliable criterion I could come up with to "proove" a guy was actaully injured was if he lost at least 1 full quarter of playing time. I actaully tracked both games lost (thinking it could be a measure of severity) as well as a simple Y/N to the question "did he get injured?" So, the column listed as "% Injured" represents the how many of the players in a given category got injured whith any level of severity. Concussion, cramp, diarrhea, amputated leg; didn't matter. This was the information I used to try to answer the question, the simple yes/no.
The idea that "getting hit more often can't be good" is completely logical and reasonable, I just can't find any data to support it. Given the number of programs that have moved to running the QB more often since 2009, it seems like a lot of coaches agree. Devin Gardner is not a flower, he's a football player. He can take a hit.
October 16th, 2013 at 3:51 PM ^
Because all things that have an affect on one's performance don't necessarily mean missing time. There's Denard's nerve injury at the end, that took him out of games (and later prevented him from playing QB); and then there's the same injury he had that didn't take him out of games but probably changed his throwing motion a whole lot and caused INTs and such. Not sure if there's an answer.
And the answer might be to measure running backs. Are guys who get 12 carries a game just as likely to get hurt as those getting 30+? Because it should be relatively translatable to running QBs. Guys running the ball get hit. But then RBs block more and get in other scrums QBs don't, so again, it's hard to measure.
October 17th, 2013 at 3:10 PM ^
If you're afraid of a QB getting dinged up period, then bench him because that's going to happen anyway. Most of the time people say "we can't afford lose our QB1." I took the word lose to mean you want QB1 healthy enough to play. If that means he plays injured go for it. That happens regardless of playing style. How many games did Chad Henne play while he was injured? I'm not sure but I suspect it was about the same number as Denard. Certainly more than 0.
Look, Michigan's interior line is playing poorly. This stupid scheme the staff is trotting out is getting Devin blindsided because AJ Williams is not a Left Tackle. I'm not a coach, so I can't be certain, but I'm pretty sure about that. So to me the question is--what's Michigan's best option: running Devin or putting him behind a weak o-line and absurd scheme? Again, not a coach so we can't be sure the line is weak and the scheme is garbage.
I value your opinion, lay it on me. Which of those two options is better?
October 17th, 2013 at 4:47 PM ^
Not run Devin and design him some easy passes to act as runs. With Taylor at left tackle, no bad blocking TE in there, and another receiver (Dileo, Norfleet, whoever) on the field. That's no guarantee either because Devin has shown us he can throw short passes right to the wrong guys. So I guess Devin behind a weak o-line without an absurd scheme.
And if I wasn't clear because we were talking about the analysis of the other way of doing things, I think it's just as hard to quantify when guys are playing dinged up as a passing QB. Henne played a lot of games in 2007 that he was messed up. It certainly changed how he played. The Cap 1 bowl showed us how they could play when all healthy. How you graph all that? You got me. That's why I said it was a hard, if not thankless, task.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:54 AM ^
If we had overused Gardner against Penn State and he had gotten injured, we would have had to play our true freshman QB, who surely would have struggled, resulting in a loss to Penn State and their true freshman QB. Thank goodness that didn't happen!
October 15th, 2013 at 11:56 AM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 12:14 PM ^
We might have to use a first-year starting QB against Indiana (with a first-year starting QB) and MSU (with a first-year starting QB). Best to be on the safe side and put one of our best offensive weapons in bubble wrap for the rest of the year.
October 15th, 2013 at 1:01 PM ^
We need less hyperbole.
Devin ran 24 times only 3 times fewer than the RB everyone is complaining about.
Bubble wrap him!
October 15th, 2013 at 1:11 PM ^
what we are (or at least I am) complaining about is how ridiculously few yards the RB got on his 27 carries. If Michigan had a functional running game, I'd be happy to see Devin run the ball less often. Since they don't, the choices seem to be run Devin a fair amount or lose.
October 15th, 2013 at 12:19 PM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 12:17 PM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 12:30 PM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 12:58 PM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 1:06 PM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 2:27 PM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 11:38 AM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^
I cannot remember what made us think that we were wise and we'd never compromise.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:48 AM ^
I cannot believe we'd ever die . . . for these sins . . . we were merely freshmen (and seniors).
October 15th, 2013 at 12:05 PM ^
October 15th, 2013 at 11:18 AM ^
Borges has a lot of explaining to do. Michigan is 5-1 despite his best efforts.
October 15th, 2013 at 11:21 AM ^
I think I'll take saturday and go to an orchard with the kids, or visit somebody, anybody, and just not watch the game...
jdon
October 15th, 2013 at 11:37 AM ^
Yes, our offense has been bad, but come on man. The overreaction amongst our fanbase to a 5-1 team has been insane.
Our offense is struggling. That's what happens when your OL sucks. It makes everything look like shit. See the NY Giants. Did Eli Manning suddenly go from being a #1 overall pick, 2-time Super Bowl MVP, pro bowl QB to being an interception machine on a team that can barely move the ball despite having possibly the best 1-2 receivers in Nicks and Cruz? Their OL went to crap and the offense followed. That is what has happened to our offense - so much of our poor running and interception problem (which makes is run more) is because of the OL problems.
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