ESSENTIALS

OVERVIEW

Welcome to the worst annual event in all of sports, the NCAA Hockey Tournament. We're back in Allentown, PA, for the "Midwest" Regional for the second straight year. (1) Michigan kicks off tonight in the first round against (4) Colgate University, for the right to play the winner of (2) Penn St. and (3) Michigan Tech on Sunday. Unlike last year, the arena probably won't be empty because Penn State is reasonably close to Allentown, hence their host designation and mandated appearance in the regional. But enough with that, today we're focused on Colgate. 

THE US 

Michigan enters the NCAA Tournament as a 1 seed for the second consecutive season, this year being 3rd overall (they were 1st overall last year). It's been a bumpy season for Michigan, a coaching fiasco in the offseason leading to an interim coaching staff headed by Brandon Naurato that didn't take the reins until late in the summer. From there they got dealt repeated brutal injury news, including a team-wide illness in November. The team found some rhythm in January but the two best games of the season were the last two weeks, wins over Ohio State and Minnesota in the B1G Tournament that gave the Wolverines the crown in the event. Michigan is led by megastar freshman Adam Fantilli, as well as his classmates Gavin Brindley and Rutger McGroarty + defenseman Luke Hughes. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: learning about the opponent]

THE THEM 

The jokes write themselves:

Perhaps the most unlikely team to make the NCAA Tournament, the Colgate Raiders are this year's bid-stealer (the Atlantic Hockey slot does not count) after winning the ECAC Tournament, a conference they were fifth in during the regular season. After beating an atrocious Dartmouth team in the preliminary round, they swept St. Lawrence in the 4/5 matchup, moving on to Lake Placid for the semifinals. There the Raiders pulled off a titanic upset of Quinnipiac, 2-1 in 2OT, getting Harvard in the championship game. Colgate went up 2-0 in the first, then 3-1 in the second, and held off the Crimson's surge to hang on to a 3-2 victory and punch an improbable ticket to the NCAAs.  

This is a massive deal for Colgate, a program that is far from a national power. This is only their sixth NCAA Tournament bid ever and their first since 2014. Once in the NCAAs, wins have become even harder to come by for the Raiders. They have not won an NCAA Tournament game in your author's lifetime, with the most recent coming in 1990! Their home rink back in Hamilton, NY, holds 2,222 fans, less than half the size of Yost. This is a small program without a ton of proud history, despite having been around since the early days of college hockey. Just making it here is a big deal. 

This is a big deal partially because Colgate lacks the history I mentioned, but also because this year's team is not particularly good, either. Not just were they fifth in a conference that is considered a tier below the B1G, but when you look at the broad metrics, you get the picture. They are the second worst team in the NCAA Tournament by KRACH rating (and a sizable gap between them and the next best team), 31st nationally. For comparisons that my B1G audience can understand, if Colgate played Wisconsin, the Badgers would be 53% favorites to win that game. The ECAC is a nice conference to play in because it's clogged by five teams that are unspeakably bad at the bottom of the standings, allowing you to pad your record. Outside the ECAC this season, Colgate went 3-7-2 against a cast of non-con opponents that are well below the caliber of Michigan. Even playing in the ECAC, their regular season record was 14-15-5 when the ECAC Tournament started. 

[Colgate Athletics]

So this team is clearly inferior to the Wolverines, but what do they offer on the ice? Their broad numbers are pretty pedestrian, 2.9 G/game leaves them tied for 24th (out of 61 teams) and and 2.5 GA/game leaves them tied for 14th, but strong strength of schedule adjustments are needed there, especially the GA/g number. On offense, they have two primary goalscorers: Alex Young (7th rounder) is the team's star forward with 21-18-39 in 39 games this season (All-ECAC 1st Team), while Matt Verboon added 16 goals. Only two other players are in double figures, Colton Young (Alex's older brother) and Alex DiPaolo, who both have 11. Of those four players, three are upperclassmen, with Colton Young being your classic ancient player (August 1998 birthday!). As a team though, Colgate is middle of the NCAA in average age at 22.3, tied with fellow Midwest Regional participant Penn State.

What helps to bring Colgate's average age down is a younger blue line, headlined by junior Nick Anderson but then the next three defensemen by scoring are all sophomores. They allow quite a few shots on goal, 28.9 per game, but are just barely above water overall, with the offense mustering 29.3 shots per game. Colgate is underwater in shot attempts though, 48.3% at even strength, so this is not a team that is dominating possession by any means. The Raiders don't take a ton of penalties, 10.4 minutes per game this season, ranking towards the middle of the pack, which could be an advantage they have over Michigan.

 [David Wilcomes]

SPECIAL TEAMS

Colgate's special teams both could be classified as "good", but remember we have a strength of schedule adjustment to make. Their PP clocks in at 21.3%, 19th in the country, while the PK is sitting 12th at 84.0%. Again, both "good" but neither are incredible. Alex Young and Ethan Manderville lead the way in PPGs, while the Raiders have 4 SHGs, courtesy of Ross Mitton, Ryan McGuire, and Colton Young, with Young's two tallies leading the team. Colgate is competent on special teams but it shouldn't be a major part of Brandon Naurato's gameplan is what I'm saying. 

Michigan is coming off one of the least penalty-filled games of the season last week against Minnesota, which is generally a good thing given PK struggles this season and the team's glut of 5v5 offense. The PK situations they were faced with against the Gophers did look good though, so that's something to build off. For the season they are still sitting at 77.3% on the kill (with only one SHG), but like I said, recent progress. The Wolverines are good but not devastating on the PP this season, firing at 22.2% for the year. 

[Bill Rapai]

GOALIES

As is the case for any team that is likely to be caved in consistently, the goalie has to be the MVP. For Colgate that goalie is Carter Gylander, who has been pretty solid this season. The junior was a 7th round draft pick of the Red Wings years ago, the only other drafted Raider besides Alex Young. After two seasons in a tandem with an unassuming SV%, Gylander has become an everyday starter with a respectable .918. His total numbers for the entire ECAC Tournament were nothing crazy but he was very sharp in pulling off the two top ten upsets that propelled Colgate into the NCAAs, saving 74 of 77 shots (.961) against QPac and Harvard to get it done for the Raiders.

Gylander is probably good for NCAA hockey standards... he also has not seen many shooters as polished as Michigan can offer. Harvard is the only thing close to Michigan in terms of NHL shooting talent that he's faced and in three games against the Crimson, Gylander posted a .903 SV% with 11 goals against in 3 games (102/113). Of course, the last game against Harvard was his best. 

As for Michigan, Erik Portillo enters the NCAA Tournament playing a bit better and more composed as of late. The goals against numbers are still too high and the SV% is nothing special, but the number of total chaotic breakdowns in the crease that we've seen from Portillo recently have declined precipitously. He's still battling rebound control some, but pucks are sticking to him more than was the case in the middle of the season. That's a decent sign. Tonight Michigan just needs Portillo to be steady and solid. Don't give up a bad one and you feel very good about the chances for the Maize & Blue. 

[Grace Beal]

KEYS

Score the first goal. The script for big upsets like this is always that the favored team falls down early and the underdog gets a good goalie performance and does a good enough blocking shots that they hang on for the win (see: Cornell over Denver yesterday). You don't see too many 5-4 upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Unless Erik Portillo totally melts down, I don't see Colgate lighting up the scoreboard. They're going to try and beat Michigan like they did QPac and Harvard, 3-2 or 2-1. It's much easier to do that as an underdog if you get the first goal. If Michigan breaks the ice and plays from ahead, Colgate doesn't have the horses to open it up and survive playing that sort of game. Michigan got on the board quickly against AIC last year and that dictated the sort of game it was going to be. That is, not one conducive to a big underdog with less talent. Same script this year. 

Don't take a major penalty. Michigan's battle with the five minute major has been an ongoing, nonstop storyline this season. It has seemingly slowed down in the postseason, as Michigan avoided taking one against both OSU and Minnesota. Perhaps that's part of why those games were such strong efforts! As noted earlier, Colgate's PP isn't world-beating, but taking a five minute major against anyone is a cause for concern. It's also the perfect formula for an upset in a game like this. Don't do it! 

Be focused. This is the same bullet point I put here last year for the AIC game, since these two 1/4 matchups are so similar. People are focused on if Michigan could get a rematch with PSU or perhaps an in-state battle with Tech in the Regional Final, and of course there's the dream of Tampa. Today, there's one goal: beat Colgate. You can't lose focus on that and let your energy level sag in-game, because you know the Raiders will be ready to go. 

PREDICTIONS

are stupid for a one game hockey playoff