First Look: 2017 Offense
DEPARTURES IN ORDER OF SIGNIFICANCE.
[Bryan Fuller]
- TE Jake Butt. Mackey win might have been a career award but it was warranted in that context. Sure handed, huge catching radius threat. Blocking indifferent. Butt will be missed by more than last name aficionados. 69% catch rate is nuts. He's off to the second round of the draft unless people are spooked by a bowl-game ACL tear.
- WR Amara Darboh. Delivered on Jim Harbaugh's assertions that he was Michigan's best receiver with an All Big Ten year. Still left you wanting a bit more, though, as he had multiple opportunities to bail Wilton Speight out of iffy throws and took few of them during Michigan's unfortunate finish.
- RT Erik Magnuson. Quiet, steady performer at tackle. Was never a star and I'm a little dubious of people projecting him on day two in the draft, but if Michigan had five Erik Magnusons the year ends very differently. Alas.
- WR Jehu Chesson. Never recaptured his stellar late 2015 form as a senior. Still moderately productive, but only that. Speed did not translate into downfield production, or even many targets. Those went to Darboh, with iffy success.
- RB De'Veon Smith. Workhorse back had solid season. Detractors will point to middling YPC (4.7) relative to the rest of the platoon; this is unfair since Smith got all the short yardage work and was often making yards on his own just to get to that number. Pass protection dipped in senior year.
- LT Ben Braden. Pressed into service at left tackle after Grant Newsome's injury, where he was neither as bad as expected nor actually good. Reduced his tendency to lean on guys as his career went on but never fully excised that from his game. Draft chatter minimal, understandably.
- RG Kyle Kalis. Promising start to senior season submarined by a recurrence of mental errors and then just straight up getting crushed by top-level interior pass rushers. Extravagantly whipped by Jaleel Johnson, Nick Bosa, and DeMarcus Walker in Michigan's losses. I will never say "it can't get worse" in reference to a Michigan offensive line again, but Kalis seems eminently replaceable.
- RB/QB Jabrill Peppers. Offensive output was minimal after wildcat QB business was diagnosed. Effective decoy mostly.
- QB Shane Morris. Never found playing time and is taking a grad transfer.
- OL David Dawson. Announced a grad transfer even before spring practice, further emphasizing how thin Michigan was on the OL this year: either he or the coaches didn't think he had any shot at a job this fall.
WHAT'S LEFT
[Fuller]
- OL Mason Cole. Move to center went relatively well, though I was less into him than PFF was. Had difficulty moving large nose tackle types and didn't get to do much operating in space, oddly. Pass protection was very good once he was removed from edge types, and I might be expecting to much. He had an NFL decision to make at a spot that usually doesn't see a ton of guys go.
- QB Wilton Speight. Debut season was solid statistically: 7.7 YPA, 62% completions, 18-7 TD-INT, third in the Big Ten in passer rating, 29th passing O in S&P+. Michigan's sack rate allowed was pretty good (27th) largely because of Speight's excellent pocket presence. Late wobbles leave the door open a crack for Brandon Peters.
- The rest of the running back platoon. Chris Evans will headline after the bowl game touchdown; Ty Isaac and Karan Higdon also had their moments. Evans is a jittery speedster who promises to hit the home runs Smith could not. Higdon will probably pick up most of the mooseback work since he's a low-to-the-ground guy who runs behinds his pads, as they say. Isaac's never had it click, really, but played well in relatively limited opportunities last year.
- OL Ben Bredeson. Flat out bad most of the year, because he was a true freshman. Should get a lot better, whether it's at guard or tackle. Honestly we should just forget about this season entirely when it comes to projecting him down the road.
- FBs Henry Poggi and Khalid Hill. FB duo was quite a dichotomy. Hill led the team in touchdowns and paved various players on spectacular edge two-for-one blocks while catching 89% of the balls that came his way. Poggi was not the threat as a receiver or runner and was substantially below average as a blocker. Despite this the two FBs split time about down the middle.
- Kaiju. Devin Asiasi and Tyrone Wheatley Jr were mostly blockers. Both were up and down, as freshmen tend to be, flashing A+ power while occasionally falling off dudes. They were not targeted often but made the most of their opportunities. With Butt's absence Michigan will rely more heavily on both; the potential for a Leap from one or both entices.
- TE Ian Bunting. Looked like Butt 2.0 on a slick seam catch in the bowl game, and also looked like Butt 2.0 when he gave up a comically easy sack a few plays later. Previous bullet makes his role in the offense somewhat in question
- (Probably) WR Grant Perry. Legal troubles probably get pled down to misdemeanors and allow him to stay on the team. Slippery slot receiver will have a role if still around.
- RB Drake Johnson. Star-crossed running back lost last season to a forklift accident and will apply for a sixth year. Fast straight-line runner who will find a role.
- OL Juwann Bushell-Beatty. Temporarily the LT after Newsome left. Displaced after struggling mightily.
WHAT'S NEW, OR CLOSE ENOUGH, ANYWAY
Bredeson is a returning starter, sort of[Fuller]
Basically the whole offensive line. For purposes of this bullet we're pretending freshman Ben Bredeson and not freshman Ben Bredeson are different people, because we need that to be the case. Michigan needs to replace three starters and get a transformation from the aforementioned; this is a lot of turnover. Mike Onwenu is penciled in at right guard and unlikely to be dislodged by anything short of a supernova; Bredeson will start somewhere. Cole exists. The other two spots are anyone's guess.
Ditto the receivers. Michigan got some good blocking, one bad drop, and one badass catch from Kekoa Crawford this year; Eddie McDoom took a bunch of jet sweeps and had one nice slant catch; Drake Harris was targeted deep several times, all of those incompletions except for one sweet catch invalidated by an unnecessary offensive pass interference call. That is the sum total of returning experience for the WR corps.
Tight ends in a post-Butt world. Ton of potential at the spot; probably fine; need to see that potential develop.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 1977
[Fuller]
Probably Wilton Speight. Speight's 2016 did not have the clear takeoff narrative that Jake Rudock did. He was great for a couple games early, then bad, then indifferent, then awesome after the bye week until he turned into a pumpkin a third of the way through Iowa. He was terrific against Ohio State despite an injury that seemed to prevent him from throwing it downfield whatsoever... except for two turnovers 100% on him that lost the game. He gets an incomplete for the Orange Bowl since every time he dropped back he was beset by hounds instantly.
It would be much easier to draw an upward arrow if he'd packed the bad stuff in early and then got a lot better; unfortunately that is not the case. I'm still a Speight optimist for three reasons:
- Harbaugh. This should be self-explanatory but if you need a refresher here's the QB season preview.
- Speight seems to have the hardest thing down: pocket presence. His ability to turn garbage into first downs is exceptional for a guy his size.
- His good periods came after an opportunity to take a breather and focus on the things Harbaugh was coaching him to do. Speight was hot at the beginning of the season, after the bye, and after he missed the Indiana game. As we go along here he should be more that guy than the one who forgot and reverted to high school/Borges stuff when the heat got turned up.
Also, redshirt sophomores generally get better. It's not a big step from where he's currently at to an All Big Ten type season.
The three to five horsemen. I really like Chris Evans and Karan Higdon, and with Johnson, Isaac, Kareem Walker, and O'Maury Samuels also available this looks set to be a very deep and good running back crew. It may lack the out and out star that Najee Harris would have provided; I'm not stressing about the ballcarriers not getting what they should. All three returners graded significantly positively on PFF (relative to workload).
Blocky/catchy blocking. If one or both Kaiju takes a Williams-esque step forward and Hill gets most of the fullback work, Michigan's ability to generate yards off tackle will take a big step forward. Butt was an excellent player overall; he was average-at-best as a blocker.
WHAT'S ROD STEWART 2017
Newsome's injury recover is critical [Bill Rapai]
Tackle. Hoke's OL recruiting was, in a word, disastrous. Michigan enters 2017 with exactly one Hoke-recruited OT: Bushell-Beatty. That means Michigan will have to do two of the following:
- Get Grant Newsome back from a terrifying injury that kept him in the hospital for over a month. (FWIW, there's been some chatter that Newsome's injury doesn't have an unusually lengthy prognosis despite the hospital stay.)
- Move Mason Cole back to the tackle spot he couldn't pass protect at.
- Move Ben Bredeson out to tackle, where he might have the same issues Cole does.
- Start Bushell-Beatty, who got beat up by Rutgers last year.
- Start Nolan Ulizio, a low-rated redshirt sophomore.
- Start a true freshman.
Two of those options might work out really well. But probably not.
WHAT'S HEISENBERG ROD STEWART UNCERTAINTY
[Patrick Barron]
The guys on the end of Speight passes. Young receivers are usually bad. Of late, however, you're seeing a couple guys a year break through as true freshmen. Michigan has a couple of candidates in the 2017 class. Both Tarik Black and Donovan Peoples-Jones enrolled early, and both seem like sharp guys who will pick up the offense quickly. Add those guys to the McDoom/Crawford/Johnson troika that the coaching staff is high on and Drake Harris and it's not too hard to see Michigan being at least as good as they were this year.
Or they could be first-and-second year guys and run into each other on the regular. Ask again later.
Meanwhile, Michigan has a solid candidate to do Butt stuff in Ian Bunting. Still a difficult ask for anyone to live up to Butt's ability to reel in anything in his area.
The interior OL. At guard, a dropoff is unlikely from a true freshman and a guy who ended up –12 on the season per PFF. Michigan needs to do much more than tread water, though. Mike Onwenu is a unique prospect at one spot, and Bredeson will either be a lot better... or playing tackle, and then the other guard spot is a series of question marks. Cole stabilizes; whether or not these guys are any good is still very much an open question.
The Pep effect. Is Pep Hamilton an upgrade on Jedd Fisch? Does it even matter when Harbaugh's running things?
MANDATORY WILD ASS GUESS
Another mediocre season is in the offing unless Michigan gets a Christmas miracle an the offensive line that will probably feature one upperclassman and is 50/50 to sport another true freshman. That is a tough hill to climb for anyone. The skill positions should be good but are likely a year away from being able to offer win-games-on-our-own help—again Michigan is all but devoid of upperclassmen.
A projected Speight uptick is the main reason for optimism; it's asking a lot of him to be Andrew Luck in an environment where he's going to be running away an awful lot.
The good news is good news about 2018, when Michigan loses only a few projected contributors: Mason Cole, the fullbacks, Drake Johnson, and Ty Isaac. Whatever they find this year will enter 2018 just about unscathed.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:31 PM ^
We scored more points per game than OSU. They certainly ran up their totals against the dregs. Are you trying to tell me their offense was mediocre because they got shut out by Clemson? Come on, man, it's harder to score against better defenses.
There is a difference between elite, great, good, better than average, and mediocre/average. The post makes no room for nuance. We were not elite, therefore the offense was mediocre?!?
January 12th, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^
we kept celebrating having larger blowouts than OSU early in the season. Scoring 58 or 78 against a very, very bad defense doesn't say that much about your offense other than it was a lot better than a very, very bad defense. But 20 extra points does a lot for your ppg averages, which by the way, is a nice 1990s stat that is mostly useless (doeesn't take into account SOS, pace, as you noted).
That was more my point. I never said we were a mediocre offense, just that scoring average is a generally bad stat, without context, and that we were very bad against better than average defenses which not everyone was.
Mediocrity depends on the context, and we were certainly a good to very good offense relative to all of FBS, so I agree mediocre is an overly harsh assessment. But we were thoroughly medicore for a title contender. Need to be able to score more against Iowa (who got blasted by PSU, NW, etc.), more than 3 net points in regulation against OSU, more than 14 at home against Wisky to be great. High expectations? Maybe. But we all want great.
And yes, OSU finished even worse as an offense. Struggled with Sparty (who is not a good defense), got blanked by us until the last second, and did get blanked by Clemson. The same assessment applies to them.
January 13th, 2017 at 10:10 AM ^
Umm, yes. OSU's offense was pretty mediocre.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:03 PM ^
Michigan has two very bad things going for them next season, plus a third not so great thing:
1) The return almost no experience at WR and will be banking on true freshman and true sophomores to lead the charge. That is bad. It is also what Notre Dame had to do last season, and we all know how that turned out.
2) They basically need a pair of miracles to happen if they want to have an OL that approaches the level of competence that this year's OL had. That is...unlikely.
3) The defense will take a step back. It will still be good, just not likely #1 in the country good. Which means the offense is going to need to score more points to win.
No one cares that they scored a bunch of points, and its pointless to use that as some sort of beacon for optimism. They were #11 according to your link. Big deal. They did most of their damage against bad teams, and will do that again next season. They struggled to score against good teams, which is why they wound up losing 3 games. Its not like the defense let the #11 offense down.
So given the facts that they need so many things to go right on offense, and will need to offense to be even better if they want to have a better season...yeah, there's good reason for negativity. They will be hard pressed to do better than 9-3 in the regular season.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:21 PM ^
a repeat of the year Gardner's ribs were turned to paste.
However, other teams seem to be able to put together serviceable young lines. Heck Penn State won a Big Ten Championship and competed in a Rose Bowl on two redshirt freshmen on the left, and a freshman and a redshirt sophomore on the right.
So if we could just have nice things for once ...
January 12th, 2017 at 3:37 PM ^
If it was just the OL or just the WRs that needed a complete overhaul, I'd be more optimistic. But its both. And that almost never goes well.
Plus, Penn State had Godwin and Barkley. That'll help out any OL. Michigan doesn't have the proven weapons to relieve any pressure on the OL.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:43 PM ^
and we will need some young guys to step up, but these young players could all turn out to be studs and we could be very surprised at how well we do.
They OL could actually be better. Let's be honest we had a lot of experience on it this year, but I think guys like Kalis and Braden never reached their potentials and were actually a little dissappointing for their careers. I think Onwenu could be a better RG then Kalis and that could be an upgrade at that position. If Cole stays at center, I expect his play to improve from last year, so in a sense your getting an upgrade there. Same goes with Bredeson at LG, so the interior of the line could actually improve. Now we could need a miracle at LT and that may just come from Newsome being able to come back. If so we upgrade there. So let's assume that happens then you have all the other tackles on the team compete for the the starting RT position and the best one wins out. I would think it would at least be a push at that position and overall we have a better OL next year. I know Newsome is a stretch but if he doesn't make it back the tackles compete for both positions and I think it's still a push on the outside and who knows maybe Ruiz is a top flight center and we can move the pieces around, either way I think our OL is improved next year.
RB's I think if nothing else these guys also take a step forward, I don't see the loss of Smith being a big deal so at the least a wash from this year, but I say we see some improvement there.
WR's could be interesting, but I thought Chesson dropped off this year and I don't think Darboh did anything spectacular this season. We got some young guys some reps last year and with DPJ and Black coming in, wouldn't be surprised to see one or both take off, especially since they are all ready on campus. Good possibility this positionn group is better next year.
TE's - Butt is a huge loss, but Bunting has a very similar skill set and I think Wheatly and Devin both improve next year, so we could be a plus here also.
QB - Speight should improve and if he's beaten out by Peters, well that means he is better and it should be an upgrade from last year.
I think there is a good chance our entire offense could be better next year.
January 12th, 2017 at 6:03 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^
Who's with me on the "It's not too late for Mo Ways to contribute" train?
January 12th, 2017 at 4:40 PM ^
contribute, but if so, it's because none of the more talented young guys steps up, which is a bad thing. His ceiling seems low at this point, so it's probably best he isn't contributing much. It'd be great if he made a leap, but it seems highly unlikely at this point.
January 12th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^
i don't know about the "almost no experience at WR" thing. crawford, mcdoom, and perry all played critical snaps this year. they were not counted on for production, but they were clearly not considered mere backups.
i don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that (assuming that perry returns) all three are major contributors in 2017. one will almost certainly step up as the lead dog, simply on the basis of opportunity.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:13 PM ^
Those three had a combined 22 catches on the season. If Perry isn't back, you're looking at 9 catches. If that's not almost no experience, I'm not sure what is.
January 17th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 1:41 PM ^
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January 12th, 2017 at 1:44 PM ^
DPJ will have a great freshman campaign.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:22 PM ^
A great freshman campaign probably looks a lot like Chesson's numbers from this season.
30 something catches, ~500 yards and a few TDs
I'd honestly be surprised if he even reached those numbers.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:10 PM ^
I'd go higher than that. Given the type of talent DPJ is and the lack of options Michigan has at WR, something more like 60/800/6 feels more likely. For reference, here are the top true freshman WRs from the last few seasons and how the top overall WR recruit did. 247 composite rankings are in parantheses.
2016: Demetris Robertson (CAL, #1) - 50 / 767 / 7
2016: Ahmmon Richards (MIA, #28!) -- 49r / 934yds / 3 TDs
2015: Calvin Ridley (ALA, #1) - 89 / 1045 / 7
2015: Christian Kirk (TAMU, #4) - 80 / 1009 / 7
2014: Speedy Noil (TAMU, #1) - 46 / 583 / 5
2014: KD Cannon (BAY, #4) - 58 / 1030 / 8
2013: Laquon Treadwell (OLE, #1) - 72 / 608 / 5
2012: Dorial Green-Beckham (MIZ, #1) - 28 / 395 / 5
2012: Amari Cooper (ALA, #6) - 58 / 999 / 11
Also, in case you were wondering, the average season for the top WR recruit the last five years has been 57 catches, 680 yards, 6 TDs.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:43 PM ^
Wow Mike Dudek. Completely missed that.
You forgot Artavis Scott - only reason he comes to mind is we were heavy on his trail - 76 catches, 965 yds as a true freshman.
We do need some guy to break out, it is just not something we have associated with true freshman and it's difficult to hoist on anyone... but DPJ on paper is supposed to be that guy. I'd be content with 30 catches myself.
Also with the dropoff in Chesson this year it makes me a bit more pensive that our freshman from last year barely caught anything - there was opportunityh there for either of those 2 guys who played quite a bit to step in and get 25 catches. They didn't. So I'm not sure what it means for next year. It makes me feel like they are more on a Chesson Darboh track which means fine JRs and SRs but slow progression types.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:22 PM ^
I completely forgot about Dudek too until I went and looked at the stats. Poor guy has missed back-to-back seasons with a torn ACL. That freshman year was his only year.
January 12th, 2017 at 6:00 PM ^
Looking worst case scenario, Chesson/Darboh/Perry combined for 105 catches (35,57,13). If Michigan has any semblance of a passing offense next year I would think the wr group would be able to replicate that production. Who the receivers would be catching those passes is the mystery.
For as much as we appreciate Darboh and Chesson neither of them set the world on fire this year. The biggest area where they might be missed is their blocking skills.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:41 AM ^
spread air raids or spreads with a lot of RPOs that get guys open without needing refined route running. Or Alabama with NFL offensive lines. I definitely think a breakout year from Speight could get DPJ a very nice season, but that O line is gonna be a problem...
January 12th, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^
you shouldn't be surprised to see the offense/team exceed expectations in a big way, we have the talent to be special next season, I expect this to be the case.
January 12th, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^
I'm not as pessimistic about the OL. Yes, we lose Braden, Magnuson, and Kalis, but despite their lofty combined number of starts in their career, they simply weren't great, as their draft prospects confirm. I'm hopeful that replacing them with some combo of Onwenu, Ruiz, Bredeson, Newsome, and perhaps one unlikely suspect will actually be an improvement. Obviously the key is just how long it takes for the unit to get there.
I think the situation is somewhat comparable to LB from 2015 to 2016. We were all worried about LB in 2016, but the truth is, the 2015 LB's we lost were replaced quickly and effectively.
January 12th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^
Long term, that's probably fine. In the short term as far as next year, there just doesn't seem to be a lot of experienced bullets in the chamber at a position that requires a lot of mental gymnastics and technique work and is thus highly variable. It is tough to see next years line and say it will be better than this years. The 2018 line should be much better.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:10 PM ^
First of all, Magnuson was ok to good. There's no one on the roster that will play at his level this year, most likely, especially at tackle. Secondly, we don't have the bodies period. One injury or off field issue or someone just not panning out like we expect and there is almost literally no one but freshman and walk-ons. Michigan needs back to back home runs to field a decent line this year and a lot of luck even to get to last year's level.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:10 PM ^
Its not just the lack of depth/experience/talent at OL that concerns me, its the complete lack of proven weapons at WR and no real threat at RB. Which puts even more pressure on the OL since there is no one at WR or RB that a defense is going to have to respect. They can just tee off on defense and dare one of Michigan's true freshman or true sophmore WRs or RBs to make a play.
Like, maybe DPJ and/or Black are immediate weapons, and the Evans/Walker/Hogdon trio takes a step forward, and maybe some of the really young OL are servicable....but man, that's expecting an AWFUL lot to go right.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:07 PM ^
Totally disagree. We haven't even seen what walker brings to the table. Evans showed more than most any rookie in the country. Offensive line will be way more athletic. No real threat at running back to me is just ludicrous. I remember when everyone was worried about darboh and chesson two years ago and we have way more talent now. Now our left tackle may be able to play this year. Seems to me things could come together better than you think.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:29 PM ^
I said "proven options." I'm optimistic about Walker too, but he is entirely unproven.
I also like Evans, but he had half the carries Smith did and a third of his guady freshman stats are coming from the Hawaii and Rutgers games. And while he did well in limited carries vs FSU and Iowa (6.5 ypc), he struggled in similar limited opportunities vs Wisconsin (4.3ypc), MSU (2.0), and Ohio St (3.0).
So while there is promise there, it was an up and down year and the coaches limited his carries despite him showing promise. Probably due to pass blocking. So I don't think I'd call him a proven quantity, and he definitely hasn't shown enough in a larger role that he's a guy that defenses scheme around. He's not yet in that Cook, Barkley, Mixon, Perine, etc, etc class that can ruin your day all on his own. That's what I mean by threat.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:45 PM ^
This. The above also projects zero injuries in a sport of violent collisions. It is difficult for us to even project 5 players. What happens when 1 (or dare I say 2) go out for 3 games? This is so very frustrating as I feel we just did all this 3-4 years ago. And here we are again.
I am hoping one of those low rated guys from 2 years ago step up, they've had 2 years in the program, S&C, Drevno coaching - just like in the NFL where UDFAs sometimes outplay high draft choices I hope the advantages of age, weight gain, strength gain, and non HS coaching means these guys can be adequate players and at least 1 of those 2 guys hold down 1 position in a not negative fashion.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^
I don't know if that's a vaild comparison to the oline. For one, Pepper's moved to LB under Don Brown. Second, Gedeon actually played some his freshmen year and played pretty well. One of the head scratchers of the 2014 and 2015 seasons was why wasn't Gedeon playing? While there were questions about the LBs heading into 2016, I don't think there were nearly as many questions as there are for the oline heading into 2017.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^
Respectfully, you're being way too optimistic. This is much more analagous to the 2012-2013 OL changeover. The one where virtually the whole board, including Brian, were convinced that our line couldn't possibly be any worse than the pitiful outfit that couldn't block to save its life in 2012. That the seniors we were losing were just mediocre holdovers, and that Brady Hoke's hot recruits would stand in the game and be at least as good, if not better, right away.
Instead, the 2013 OL might have been the worst ever produced by the University of Michigan.
You're simply setting yourself up for disappointment and frustration if you think the OL is going to improve next season. We will be incredibly fortunate if it even matches last year's performance.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:39 PM ^
Of course, you could say that's just one anecdote where losing bad senior lineman and replacing with young, highly rated lineman leads to worse results. Doesn't mean that will always be the case. And the fact that the young linemen in the anecdote never reached their expected lofty heights may indicate that the situation isn't the norm.
For a counter example, In Drevno's last year, they ended up starting three freshman and a true sophomore, with a returning starter/star at center, and they had a fine offensive season.
I agree that our expectations should be low. However, the reasoning isn't terrible, even if it didn't work out that way in 2013.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
My general rule of thumb is that while one may occasionally hope for and see a genuinely surprising emergence of capability and maturity, banking your hopes on that happening with multiple players is foolish. It's possible that Onwenu steps right in and is good. And it's possible that Bredeson makes huge strides. That's two big steps right there. But we haven't gotten to the tackles yet.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:19 PM ^
2016 Notre Dame is a good example of how things can go. Much like Michigan will do next season, Notre Dame had to replace their entire passing corp -- WRs and TEs -- and much like Michigan returned almost no experience.
Also like Michigan will need to do, they had to replace 60% of their OL, and didn't have many good options to do so.
So could everything go right for Michigan? Sure. But I can't think of any positive examples from similar scenarios. Most of the time, it winds up looking like 2016 ND.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:40 PM ^
But offense wasn't their problem. Other than playing in a hurricane at N.C. State, they only had one game where they scored less than 27 points (10 to Stanford). They were 38 and 35 in FEI and S&P respectively, which don't account for the N.C. State game conditions. Hardly an offensive collapse despite their personnel losses.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
Notre Dame was No. 6 in FEI in 2015, and then dropped to No. 38 in 2016. Michigan was No. 11 this season, and I think a similar drop to the mid 30's wouldn't be unexpected.
Their defense won't be as bad as Notre Dame's, but the offense? I'd say that's fairly likely. And looking at the teams in that 30-40 range in FEI from this season, something like Wisconsin's season this year is probably Michigan's ceiling.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^
Notre Dame certainly dropped in offense this year, but I'm more interested in what they did compared to other teams. They were middle of the road for power 5 programs. That's not horrible.
Notre Dame had an atrocious defense and lost 7 one-score games. While they lacked a killer offense, that wasn't the problem.
I don't think anyone is really expecting a national championship next year, but enough offense to go with a very good defense to win 9 or 10 regular season games is a reasonable expectation. And I think that's all anyone is trying to say in this thread.
January 12th, 2017 at 10:21 PM ^
Was looking at some of the power 5 teams in that 30-40 range in FEI, and the best one was Wisconsin. They were No. 34, went 11-3, and of course went to a NY6 bowl. You also have a bunch of 7 and 8-win teams in that range like LSU, Auburn, Northwestern.
I could see Michigan having a season like Tennessee (No. 28) or Miami (No. 50). Both went 9-4, both looked good for a while, and both had bouts of brilliance and incompentence. Wisconsin is a good match too -- strong defense, iffy offense.
And like you said, 9 wins would be pretty solid especially since it would set up 2018 for a playoff run.
January 12th, 2017 at 3:34 PM ^
I think it comes down to Newsome's health. If he comes back and is fine then I think it's reasonable to expect a base of 3 linemen returning that are from ok to good. I am fairly confident Bredeson makes a leap, almost all true sophomre returning starters along the line do. Then you're talking about finding two guys to give you something. It becomes very reasonable to think that what we find will match or exceed what we're losing. Obviously it may not work out or we may have injury issues or whatever, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect something better than a repeat of 2013.
January 12th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^
UMbig seems much more pensive than Brian about a Newsome return. And it sounds like at all, forget missing a year and coming back in 2018.
But let's play rainbow and ponies and say he comes back in some form. This will be a man who was in a hospital for nearly 40 days, whose has to start to walk yet, whose leg will have atrophied, who will have missed an entire offseason of S&C, who will have missed spring game. What do you expect from that sort of offseason program for an OL in terms of competitive ability next September?
January 12th, 2017 at 5:32 PM ^
Having him return as a starter next season feels like a Najee Harris, nice-if-it-happens type of pipe dream. Expecting him to return and improve feels like crazy talk.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:42 PM ^
This has been a strange injury, in part because we haven't been told exactly what happened. Have we even heard, officially, that he tore his ACL? We heard "surgery" and "season-ending" and I think that's been it.
So it's really hard to say.
If we just knew, for example, that it was an ACL/MCL tear, we'd know: 1. it's bad. 2. He can make a full recovery. 3. He probably won't be performing at 100% to start the season.
Since "just" an ACL seems like it would be a positive at this point, I don't see any reason to believe that he'll be a force at LT next season. It would be a very pleasant surprise.
If he were that would be a huge boost to the line. I'm just not seeing it. And I echo your frustration elsewhere regarding the problems of depth.
EDIT: I do want to say that we as fans have no real right to know exactly what is going on with Newsome, and the primary concern is obviously for his long-term welfare. The discussion above just regards the unusual way we speculate about his playing status.
January 13th, 2017 at 12:50 AM ^
He wouldn't have been in the hospital that long. ACL is pretty minor. You saw Jake Butt walk off the field with barely a limp. That's pretty normal. Some guys even play with no ACL (Hines Ward, Thurman Thomas, etc.).
It had to be something far more severe like a severed artery, tibial plateau fracture, ruptured patella tendon, knee joint dislocation or some combination of those and ligament tears.
January 12th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^
The severity and length of stay in the hospital doesn't move me. In terms of all that other stuff, it isn't really all that different from any major leg injury. At some point, if he's going to play this year, he's going to be back and healthy enough to be in the weight room (I imagine even if he's still limited in his injured leg he's doing some stuff), and ready for fall camp. At that point, maybe his leap isn't as great as it would have been absent the injury, but I think being at least OK is still a reasonable expectation.
For the record, I'm not assuming he'll be back. I just said that his health makes a huge difference.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:54 PM ^
January 12th, 2017 at 4:38 PM ^
You are right about the 2013 offensive line. I have them as the 24th best line in the last 25 seasons in both YPC and YPG. 3.3 YPC and 126 YPG. That's atrocious. Interestingly, the only team with worse stats is the '99 team with that other Brady (Tom) at the helm. They averaged 3.2 YPC and 122 YPG rushing. That team finished #5 in the country at 10-2. Brady was (and is still) an amazing quarterback.
January 12th, 2017 at 1:47 PM ^
This was odd. You name specific players like DPJ and ignore others like Filiaga who is almost certainly going to start.
January 12th, 2017 at 1:53 PM ^
News to me. Of the freshman OT he's likely the most ready, but that's hardly the same thing.
January 12th, 2017 at 2:06 PM ^
I thought you might have answered my question about some players being mentioned, others not, with your reference to EE, but Brian also specifically mentioned O'Maury Samuels who isn't enrolled yet.
If we were having beers right now, I'd bet you on Filiaga.
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