Previously: MSU Offense

After bringing you the MSU offense yesterday, we return with the defensive side of the football. The Spartan defense has been much maligned after being brutalized for the first four weeks of power five competition, but they are coming off a much better showing versus Wisconsin.

The Film: Though Wisconsin is the worst P5 offense that MSU has played, they are also the only P5 offense MSU has played with their two stars from last season, S Xavier Henderson and DT Jacob Slade, healthy. That left me handcuffed and forced to pick the Badgers as the team to chart, even if their QB is broken and their offense is a pitiful husk of a dinosaur so bad it got the coach fired. Therefore, I will be resorting to using some clips from games against functional passing offenses to get to the bottom of MSU's pass defense, but the charting data applies to Wisconsin. 

Personnel: Click for big or here for PDF.

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Michigan State has mixed in a lot of bodies on the defensive line because injuries have rocked this group. Transfer EDGE Khris Bogle went down with injury, as did pseudo-returning EDGE starter Jeff Pietrowski. Both may or may not be back this weekend against Michigan, following MSU's bye week. In their place, youngster Zion Young and the more veteran Brandon Wright have stepped in as the nominal starters, but they're both rotating in and out. Michael Fletcher is in the mix, as was Avery Dunn, before he, too, encountered injury. If Bogle and/or Pietrowski return, then you can toss them in the bucket. Jacoby Windmon, who we will return to at the LB position, was an EDGE earlier in the year before sliding to the second level against Wisconsin. 

DT is the strength of the defense for what feels like the 19th straight season, despite the absence of Jacob Slade. He's back from injury, having returned for his first P5 game against Wisconsin, and after another two weeks to rest up, Slade should be back to full strength. Slade was the Dangerman last year and I'm keeping him there this season. MSU's other DTs besides Slade are not horrible either. They sorely missed Slade, but they have a stable of solid players. Derrick Harmon is the starter and he impressed me against Wisconsin. Simeon Barrow ain't a bad player either. I'm less enthusiastic about Deshaun Mallory, Jalen Hunt, or Maverick Hansen this season, but the fact I can tell you about the 6th DT on the depth chart tells you the trust MSU's coaches have in this whole group to rotate them in. If Slade is 100%, I would expect less rotation against Michigan. 

The LB level sees the return of Cal Haladay, an old-fashioned LB who eschews gloves for his dirt-stained knuckles. Haladay was a starter last season as RS Fr but has concerningly taken a step backwards. He's still a bit of an issue in coverage but the run defense that he was pretty strong at last season has regressed. Next to him is the aforementioned UNLV transfer Windmon, who started the season on a tear as an EDGE against such teams as WMU and Akron but cooled off some against P5 competition before shifting to LB. I thought he was alright against Wisconsin; PFF still loves Windmon, but we opted against the star given the position switch and everything else. Aaron Brule is the SAM that they used against a beefy team like Wisconsin, a Mississippi State transfer who also has a nose for pass-rushing. If anyone needs relief it will come in the form of Old Friend/New Enemy Ben VanSumeren, who got some run as a starter before they moved Windmon to LB, which was perhaps done to get BVS off the field. 

At corner, welp. There is still a parade of transfers and that is not a good thing. Georgia transfer Ameer Speed (our name of the week winner) has not solved the problem that existed last season and none of the returners have gotten better. Charles Brantley was mostly a reserve last season but has gotten a promotion to starter thanks to the demotion of Florida transfer Chester Kimbrough, who was disappeared after an abhorrent effort against Washington. He resurfaced for six snaps against OSU but has otherwise been missing in B1G play. Alabama transfer Ronald Williams, last year's #1 corner, is also still around but has been riding the pine, rotating in occasionally. D2 transfer Kendell Brooks from North Greenville University has also gotten in the rotation and he, like everyone else here, can't cover anybody. Brantley and Speed are the every-down starters. 

When they play in a 4-2-5, the nickel/HSP appears to be Tr Fr Dillon Tatum, who ascended to a regular job for the first time this season with 34 snaps against Wisconsin. Brooks has suited up at the safety level as well, and they can play any of the two normal safeties here too. The season-ending injury to Darius Snow seriously derailed the plans for this position. The main starters are FS Xavier Henderson and Angelo Grose, both of whom are (surprise!) better against the run than in coverage. Henderson was a star of this defense last year and retains his star as a result, having missed significant time with injury. Grose has not been good but avoided the cyan, with problems in coverage as the main issue. Jaden Mangham got time in Henderson's absence, while Tate Hallock is also listed on the depth chart in the two-deep here. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Too many open receivers that Wisconsin refused to throw to]

Base set: MSU is alternating between two looks depending on opponent, a 4-3 with the SAM Brule (which they featured more often against Wisconsin) and a 4-2-5. Here's the 4-3: 

And here is the 4-2-5: 

There is an interesting 2-4-5* look on 3rd & long situations which I will show you later and an occasional 3-3-5, but this is the base configuration. 

Man or zone coverage: Michigan State was running several different coverages against Wisconsin but drawing upon other games, they are best described as pattern matching Cover 3. There is a blend of man and zone stuff, but Cover 3 is the best term for it overall. Part of the reason I had some issue identifying coverages is because it is not working whatsoever, man or zone. Open receivers dot the field on every play it can become hard to figure out what they're trying to do. 

Pressure: Michigan State rushed >4 players on 32% of snaps, whereas they rushed <4 players on 3% of snaps. That blitz number clocks in as one of the higher numbers this season, a bit ahead of PSU last time out. It is still well below the incredibly high 60% that Indiana put up, which leads the FFFF blitz tracker this season, but does indicate that the Spartans like to blitz (as was the case last season). The latter number of 3% merely shows that rushing three is a very rare tactic.  

Dangerman: We're double dipping and bringing back last year's Dangerman, DT Jacob Slade. I know he hasn't played much this season but a healthy Slade, and after two weeks off he should be much closer to that, is a wrecking ball on the defensive interior you have to account for, one of the best DTs in the conference. Slade gave Michigan fits last season, brutalizing Karsen Barnhart (who was playing G for Trevor Keegan), and that was after I had already identified him as the Dangerman in this piece. Slade didn't play as much as you may expect for a star against Wisconsin, but he was working his way back from injury, which likely contributed. I still got a couple clips of him: 

DT #64 second from the bottom

Here it his interior rush that helps push Mertz to the right and into the edge Wright for the sack. 

On this next clip he swims through the IOL but Mertz is able to get the ball off before he arrives: 

DT #64 towards the top

I know these aren't the most impressive clips, but again, he wasn't quite 100%. I still have the ammo from last season: 

DT #64 second from the bottom

Slices right through the IOL and forces the Miami QB to get the ball out in a hurry. The pass rush is there from Slade and he applies those same skills, the jump off the snap and ferocity, to bully his way into the backfield and stop the run. I would expect Michigan will hit him with doubles pretty regularly given that the other DTs don't pose the sort of every-down threat that Slade does. He is the best organic rusher on the DL when Windmon is playing LB and he is most likely to cause a crucial TFL in the run game that turns a drive. That's why I kept the Dangerman designation with him. 

 

Overview

So let's talk about the Michigan State defense. After two solid efforts against two bad MAC opponents, allowing a combined 13 points, MSU has proceeded to allow 39, 34, 27, 49, and 28 points against P5 competition. The yardage totals allowed are 503, 507, 489, 614, and 283. That last game is the one that makes your ears perk up a bit, a respectable performance against a B1G opponent! The easiest way to explain what happened against Wisconsin is through two factors. First, MSU's previous performances were worse than what they should be allowing given injuries, and they got quite a bit healthier against the Badgers. Secondly, and more importantly, the driving force behind that game was the manner in which Wisconsin was ill-prepared to exploit Michigan State's defensive weakness. 

What I mean by that is that the Spartan pass defense is a major weak spot, as it was last year, and Wisconsin has one functional receiver and a completely broken QB. I did not clip the play where Mertz threw a ball that went straight through the arms of two MSU DBs without a Wisconsin receiver anywhere in the area, but it was emblematic of the player he is. That QB and that passing game was not going to attack the Spartan defense where it hurts. But Ohio State and Washington and Maryland and Minnesota? They were set up to go after it where there are problems. 

The problems are primarily that everyone is open on every play. Here are the stat lines of the QBs from those four games: 

• 24/40, 397 yards, 9.9 Y/A, 4 TD, 0 INT
• 23/26, 268 yards, 10.3 Y/A, 3 TD, 0 INT
• 32/41, 314 yards, 7.7 Y/A, 1 TD, 0 INT 
• 21/26, 361 yards, 13.9 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT 

Woof. The one interception MSU forced in that span was a ball that CJ Stroud threw directly to Charles Brantley after mis-communicating with his receiver. It was a gift with a bow on it. Otherwise, zilch. 

What I saw against Wisconsin were these same problems, but the Badgers had only limited interest in seizing them. Like last season, this throw was open all day long: 

When it was time to slam the door and finish the game off, MSU's pass defense wasn't stopping it: 

Or in OT: 

These clips look a lot like the ones I saw against Maryland or Ohio State. The immense cushion: 

The guys wide open in zone: 

They didn't have a massive bust against Wisconsin like they did in previous games, but those have been there this season: 

These problems are not going to be fixed by health in my mind. The injuries have primarily targeted the front seven, with the defensive line being hardest hit. Getting Xavier Henderson back helps some, but the reason they can't cover is because the corners are all horrible in coverage and no one has gotten injured there. They just all stink. And Henderson last season was better in run defense and pass rush than in coverage. This is a schematic/talent/coaching problem that dates back to last season (and I guess the COVID year if you consider that a real season (I do not)). 

In some ways, the MSU pass defense is one of the least interesting things I've had to cover at FFFF because there isn't much to say. Ameer Speed and Charles Brantley are the starting corners but are they any different than Ronald Williams or Chester Kimbrough? Not really. There are no particularly weak points or great guys in coverage to point out. Everyone is bad and they're all about equally as bad. Receivers are open on every play and if you have a QB who knows how to survey the field or throw the football accurately, you will likely dice them up. End of story. Wisconsin did not have that. 

Run defense and pass rush is far more interesting to me. The MSU rush defense struggled this season in the absence of Slade, but played well against Wisconsin after getting him back into the lineup. Though Braelon Allen rushed for 4.2 YPC on the day, he had one scamper of 34 yards that skews it a bit. His other 28 carries went for a notch over 3 YPC. There were some issues, but there were also some impressive stuffs. I like Derrick Harmon: 

DT #41 second to bottom of DL

Harmon has emerged from the woodwork this season, moving past Simeon Barrow on the depth chart, who I was already a fan of: 

I am less enthusiastic about the other DTs, but if Slade is back to 100% and they stick with Harmon and Barrow at the other spots, this is probably the best interior defensive line Michigan has seen this season. It may not matter because Michigan's IOL might just be invincible against anyone except (maybe) OSU this season, but I'd expect some friction between the tackles. Where Wisconsin had the most success was when Allen bounced: 

Allen is a good RB and the hesitation shown on this next play to find the cutback lane reminded me of Corum: 

The reason that running outside the tackles has more success is because in contrast to the DTs, the EDGE players are just guys. I liked Brandon Wright okay in this game, but he's not yet a difference maker. Maybe they'll get Khris Bogle or Jeff Pietrowski healthy for this one, but it's hard to know what sort of an impact they'd have. Zion Young may have promise as a youngster, but he's inexperienced and prone to getting sealed off. It's Young getting sealed in the clip I showed just before the previous one that allows Allen to bounce without issue. The corners and LBs had some trouble getting off blocks, so the one jet sweep Wisconsin ran worked magnificently: 

At the LB level, Cal Haladay didn't show me as much as I'd like in run defense, but he was still okay. Jacoby Windmon was up-and-down defending the run, sometimes liable to missing the hole, other times with his nose in the right spot to plug a run. Playing behind these DTs helps, which is why you can target them more effectively, and find them more vulnerable, running outside the tackles. 

I would be remiss if I did not mention that the one thing MSU's run defense has done consistently well all season: execute goal line stands. Against Washington, they were faced with 1st & G from the *one yard line* and stuffed *four straight rushes*. Against Maryland, it was 1st & G from the two and they stopped four straight rushes. Against Wisconsin, it was 1st & G from the four and only on the fourth rush did the Badgers find the end zone. When asked to defend one yard, this defense pins its ears back and finds a way every damn time. Why teams keep trying it, I do not know. But it must be on the scouting report. 

If MSU has hope of slowing down the Michigan passing offense, it will have to come through the pass rush. Early in the season, it looked like Jacoby Windmon was a Dude. He put up five sacks(!) against WMU and had the CFB world buzzing. He had another one the next week against Akron and then... none since then. He's still had some decent rushes, but the move to P5 competition has blunted his impact. With the last Panasiuk moving on and Windmon now moved to LB, MSU does not project to have a hand-in-the-dirt edge rusher who should threaten Michigan's tackles. That doesn't mean they can't get tricky and try some things out. MSU tried a delayed corner blitz with Brantley that Mertz never saw and it worked for a sack: 

Of course, as we mentioned about the DTs, the most effective organic passrushers as defensive linemen are the men on the interior, especially when you pepper in a stunt: 

The reason I added that "as defensive linemen" line there is because the LBs are pretty good passrushers on their own. Windmon as I mentioned, but SAM Aaron Brule as well. An interesting package MSU went to in 3rd & longs was to line Brule and Windmon both up at the line of scrimmage with two down linemen, and then use Haladay and Ben VanSumeren as the LBs. Nominally, this is a 2-4-5, even if it looks like a 4-2-5. The reason is because they'd rather have those two LBs be their passrushers rather than the EDGE guys. Here's one such play: 

As stated in the pressure section, MSU likes to blitz and the personnel is a reason for that. Their best pass rushers are at the second level and given the deficiencies in the secondary, they need to make some noise to get off the field. I'd expect them to send a variety of blitzes and activate Brule and/or Windmon to try and throw McCarthy off his game or force a turnover. That worked against Mertz, who has Jared Goff-like pocket awareness skills, but I am more skeptical of how it will do against Michigan's OL and McCarthy. 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

If Michigan is indeed an elite offense, which we believe that they are, then they should have no problems making work of the Michigan State defense. The wrinkle of course being that it may have to be a pass-first approach. Again, the Wolverines may be able to just trample the Spartans on the ground because the OL muscle is so special, but I'm assuming that may not be the case just for scouting purposes. Let's say Slade and Harmon/Barrow gum things up inside. Then what? The answer is to do what Michigan didn't do last season in this matchup, which was operate pass-first and let JJ McCarthy pick the Spartans apart. Receivers are going to be open all day long, let him find them and roll into this game with an Ohio State-like game plan. 

The deep stuff should be open. The short stuff should be open. The intermediate stuff should be open. Whatever Michigan wants to do through the air should be there. They may have to deal with some funky blitzes but there should not be consistent down-to-down pressure to disrupt all this. Sling the ball around and march down the field, using the run as a relief for the pass. Mix in some bubble screens as well that test the edges, run a jet sweep or two, and have JJ's legs play a factor as well. I assume Michigan wants revenge and will pull out a few new plays as well. Have no remorse and build your run off the pass, because the pass is such a mismatch you have to take advantage of it.