Previously: Quarterback, Running Back

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

The series continues with a look at the pass-catchers on this year's schedule. Sorry for several of the photos. Projected starters are in bold, backups in italics.

Tier I: They're Coaching The Five-Stars

(sigh) [Bryan Fuller]

1. Ohio State. Bah.

Fine, details. While KJ Hill, Binjimen Victor, and Austin Mack are gone—add in RB JK Dobbins and OSU is down four of their top six receivers from 2019—there's a good chance this unit is better than last year.

I probably don't need to remind you that Michigan got an unwelcome preview of what's to come when Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson both scored long touchdowns in The Game last season. Olave is a smooth outside receiver and potential early-round pick if he enters the NFL Draft in 2021. Wilson is a spectacular athlete who'll get to spend much more time at his more natural slot position with Hill out of the way.

I'm inclined to say those two will outperform their graduated but less talented teammates; Hill went in the seventh round of the draft while Victor and Mack weren't selected but they were the experienced options in an egalitarian passing attack. But, well, you've probably noticed that OSU has added some talent of late, and a whole lot of that talent is at wide receiver:

Just for a fun exercise, if you remove [2017 three-star Ellijah] Gardiner from the equation — no offense, he’s just the lowest-rated player — the average score for this group would be 0.9616. In other words, the average receiver on the OSU roster would be ranked No. 86 in the current recruiting class. And we’re talking about 10 players. The number is only that low because Olave, one of the top receiver prospects in this draft cycle, wasn’t evaluated properly coming out of high school.

If Olave and Wilson don't put up huge numbers it's probably because too many other future NFL players also earned targets. The most likely additional contributors behind them are sophomore Jameson Williams (#82 overall 2019 prospect) and four true freshmen: Julian Fleming (#3 in 2020), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (#29), Gee Scott Jr. (#66), and Mookie Cooper (#93). 

While recent OSU offenses haven't featured the tight end, they should get efficient play out of—you guessed it—some former blue-chip recruits. Jeremy Ruckert, the #2 TE in the 2018 class, scored on four of his 14 receptions in 2019. Jake Hausmann (#4 TE in 2016) and Luke Farrell (#7 in 2016) are reliable blockers in frequently deployed two-TE sets; Farrell has also shown some seam-stretching ability in his limited receiving opportunities.

Unlike a certain disgraced former receivers coach, Brian Hartline looks like he's actually coaching the high-level talent at his disposal. He may have the best receivers room in the country. Eat at Arby's.

[Hit THE JUMP because it can't be more of a bummer than that, at least.]

Tier II: The Rashod Bateman Tier

2. Minnesota. While depth is definitely a plus at receiver, it's also important to have a capital-D Dude, and there's nobody with stronger Dude bona fides in the Big Ten at the position than junior Rashod Bateman, who considerably raised Minnesota's outlook when he opted back into the season after initially choosing to train for the draft.

While Tyler Johnson caught more passes, Bateman was one of the country's premier field stretchers, averaging an obscene 20.3 yards with 11 touchdowns on his 60 receptions. While Bateman could draw increased attention with Johnson, a fifth-round pick, gone to the NFL, he was already being treated by defenses as the #1 wideout last year.

Chris Autman-Bell could pick up much Johnson's lost production after finding the end zone five times on 28 receptions as a sophomore. Fellow junior Demetrius Douglas is poised to slide into the #3 role, though he could be pressed for snaps by PJ Fleck's top incoming recruit, four-star Kansas receiver Daniel Jackson.

Fleck's offense uses the tight end even less than Ohio State. Junior Jake Paulson caught four passes last year.

Tier III: Breakout Potential

speedsters in space Mike Sainristil (19) and Giles Jackson (15) [Fuller]

3. Michigan. Yes, the Wolverines would've been #2 if Nico Collins had returned. That one hurts.

Still, there's no shortage of exciting pass-catchers. Ronnie Bell confirmed he chose the right sport while leading the team in receiving; his numbers were actually pretty close to Olave's save for Bell's near-comical bad luck at scoring touchdowns—you don't need much regression to score more than once. Giles Jackson and Mike Sainristil are both explosive athletes whose small stature may belie the ability to make plays downfield. This group may not have prototype size; they have plenty of big-play capability, not to mention versatility.

Cornelius Johnson is a four-star talent who gives the team more size on the outside after getting his feet wet as a freshman last year. The freshmen could contribute; AJ Henning is another slot-sized player who may be more Jeremy Gallon than true slot, while Roman Wilson's elite track speed is a trait that'll translate right away.

Tight end should be in good hands. Senior Nick Eubanks finally has clear opportunity for the breakout season that he's seemed on the verge of having since his arrival. Sophomore Erick All is much more TE-sized than last year but still getting practice hype as an oversized downfield target; this blog, if you haven't picked up on it yet, is very excited about All's potential. Classmate Luke Schoonmaker has untapped upside, too.

4. Maryland. Despite a typically subpar Maryland quarterback situation, Dontay Demus broke through as one of the conference's best receivers. Demus pulled in 41 receptions for 625 yards and six TDs; no other Terp pass-catcher had more than 19, 243, or three, respectively.

Demus gets some reinforcements this year. Jeshaun Jones had a promising freshman year in 2018 before injury cost him all of last season. Senior DJ Turner had some nice moments last year before a DUI charge derailed his season. Five-star Rakim Jarrett is the crown jewel of Mike Locksley's 2020 class.

Locksley is also not a big tight end guy, though sophomore Chigoziem Okonkwo flashed potential as an H-back.

Tier IV: A Dangerous Slot, Quality Tight End, and ???

PSU has itself a Baby Gronk [Barron]

5. Penn State. This is mostly a bet on tight end Pat "Baby Gronk" Freiermuth and emerging talent at wideout, where little is proven following the departures of KJ Hamler (NFL) and Justin Shorter (transfer). Freiermuth is one of the top tight ends in the country, a true in-line guy who big-bodies defensive backs and proves too athletic for most linebackers. He leads a strong tight end room also featuring mammoth 6'7" redshirt sophomore Zach Kuntz.

Junior Jahan Dotson is set to take over Hamler's number one role in more ways than one; at 5'11", the big-play threat will slide down to the slot more often this year. He should be very good. The other receivers have almost no experience, however. Projected starter Daniel George, a former four-star, has 13 receptions over two seasons. 2019 three-star TJ Jones is the other starter on the spring depth chart after redshirting last year.

Four freshman receivers, three of them four-stars, and a JuCo transfer provide depth. I almost dropped PSU a spot because 2019's #120 overall prospect, WR John Dunmore, withdrew from school yesterday. The incoming class saved them from falling behind...

6. Indiana. Michigan fans missed getting a fresh look at IU's top receiver when Mister Elias D'Angelo "Whop" Philyor sat out last year's matchup. He was healthy enough in IU's other 12 games to top the thousand-yard mark from the slot, providing an excellent combination of reliability (70 receptions) and plain old ability (14.3 YPC, 5 TDs). He's got the league's best real name and nickname; he'd also be in the discussion for best slot receiver if Rondale Moore hadn't returned to Purdue.

He's complemented by another versatile threat from the middle of the formation, junior tight end Peyton Hendershot, who served essentially no team penalty after an offseason incident that resulted in him agreeing to a plea deal for criminal trespassing in exchange for his ex-girlfriend dropping more serious charges. Hendershot trailed only Purdue's Brycen Hopkins in receptions and yards among Big Ten TEs in 2019.

The issue is on the outside, where Nick Westbrook and Donovan Hale leave two large downfield target-sized holes. Senior Ty Fryfogle is solid but not a guy anyone is going to gameplan around. While the Hoosiers didn't bring in a cadre of four-star receivers like PSU, they landed one—Detroit King's Rashawn Williams—in the 2020 class. Williams will compete with redshirt sophomore Miles Marshall and a few others for a starting role. It's probably a year early to expect a lot out of whomever emerges there.

Tier V: Quarterbacks In Search of Help

Tre Mosley (17) and MSU's receivers struggled with efficiency last year [Barron]

7. Wisconsin. A couple years ago we were semi-jokingly referring to QB Alex Hornibrook as "Mr. Tight Windows" because of the frequency he'd have to force a ball to a seemingly covered receiver, particularly when that receiver wasn't Quintez Cephus. Nobody else appeared able to get open. Not much has changed, except Cephus is now on the Detroit Lions (sorry, man).

While there's experience at WR, the returners need to really step up their production. From my HTTV preview:

Cephus finished the 2019 season with 901 receiving yards on 59 receptions. The #2 receiver was tight end Jake Ferguson, who’ll be counted on to carry a big load in his junior season. The #3 receiver was [RB Garrett] Groshek, a running back who averaged less than ten yards per catch. Then you finally hit a returning wide receiver, Kendric Pryor, who caught 23 balls for 278 yards and zero TDs. The next returning player on the list is the other presumed starting wideout: Danny Davis III, who turned 30 receptions into only 250 yards, though he at least managed to find the end zone once.

Meanwhile, starting quarterback Jack Coan injured his foot and underwent surgery since I did the QBs edition of this post. Sophomore phenom Graham Mertz is going to lean heavily on Ferguson, as well as third-down back Garrett Groshek, to work as reliable outlets while he figures out if the outside guys are even worth targeting on any play that doesn't scheme them open.

8. Michigan State. This unit, which wasn't exactly tearing it up last year, got hit by attrition in a few ways. WR Darrell Stewart and TE Matt Seybert graduated. The team's leading receiver, Cody White, took a chance on the NFL early instead of coming back for his senior season; he went undrafted and hasn't stuck on a roster. Athletic sophomore Julian Barnett moved to cornerback this offseason to cover for another depth chart deficiency. That's four of the top five receivers gone from what was not a good passing attack.

The returner from that group is sophomore Tre Mosley, who emerged as a top target over the season's final six games. The slot should be filled by Jalen Nailor, who had 15 catches for 106 yards over the last four games after missing the first nine due to injury; he's also used as an end-around threat. The Spartans will hope Western Michigan transfer Jaylen Reed, who averaged an impressive 9.8 yards per target as a freshman at WMU, can translate his MAC production to the Big Ten.

At tight end, Seybert is gone and Matt Dotson is working his way back from an Achilles injury, leaving sophomore Trenton Gillison—who got nearly half his 2019 receiving yardage on one catch against Wake Forest—as the starter by default. They're so desperate for bodies they're seeing if a 235-pound walk-on punter can play tight end. Seems bad!

9. Rutgers. It's admittedly difficult to separate RU's receiving shortcomings from its abject quarterback play. That said, it doesn't look good. Bo Melton led the team with 30 catches, 427 yards, and two TDs. The only other player to come close to those numbers was running back Raheem Blackshear, who transferred to Virginia Tech.

There's not much depth after attrition hit this position group hard. Sophomore Isaiah Washington is the only other returner with significant playing time to his name. Wisconsin transfer Aron Cruickshank couldn't crack the Badger receiver rotation described above. Tight ends caught a total of six passes for the Scarlet Knights last year, all by sophomore Matt Alamo.

Melton has some talent but we probably won't get to see it utilized much in this offense.