a healthy Zach Charbonnet has the potential to be the conference's best back [Patrick Barron]

The Enemy, Ranked: Running Back Comment Count

Ace October 2nd, 2020 at 8:07 AM

Previously: Quarterback

I'm bringing back this preview feature from before my time off; the exercise is to rank Michigan's opponents, as well as the Wolverines themselves, in each position group. This is particularly useful to do in a year when roster turnover and late-offseason changes (laaaaaaaaaaaaaate-offseason changes) are so prevalent; I'll do my best in these posts to highlight significant opt-outs, opt-ins, and the like.

As with quarterback, running back is a position of strength among most of the teams on Michigan's schedule. While there isn't a Jonathan Taylor or JK Dobbins established superstar on the slate, there's plenty of talent ready to break out, along with several backs who've already proven they can produce in the Big Ten. Every team has either a returning starter or a former four-star recruit in the mix to take over.

Projected starter is in bold, backups in italics.

Tier I: High-End Rotations

Journey Brown leads one of the nation's deepest backfields [Barron]

1. Penn State. This might be the most loaded backfield outside of Tuscaloosa. It took a while for PSU to land on their preferred rotation last year, and in cycling through the options they turned up a potential first-round pick at the position and two additional excellent backs.

Redshirt junior Journey Brown, a compact speedster with wiggle that defies the "former track star" label, emerged midseason as the top option, rushing for 890 yards and 12 touchdowns on only 129 carries—a 6.9 YPC average and score nearly every ten rushes despite few stat-padding opportunities against bad competition. He's ranked as high as a top-three prospect at the position for the 2021 NFL Draft; Mel Kiper has him only behind Clemson's Travis Etienne and Oklahoma State's Chuba Hubbard among draft-eligible RBs.

Sophomores Noah Cain and Devyn Ford both easily cracked five YPC in their debut seasons. Cain looked to seize the lead role in the rotation after back-to-back 100-yard performances against Purdue and Iowa before a leg injury suffered a couple weeks later derailed the latter half of his regular season. He bounced back with 92 yards against Memphis in the Cotton Bowl.

Ford, a former top-100 recruit, could be the odd man out; he did a lot of his damage in the opener against Idaho and didn't top seven carries in a game, then got charged with marijuana possession in what sounds like a comical arrest over the offseason:

Three Penn State football players were charged Monday after university police officers said they found marijuana and LSD in the trio’s on-campus apartment.

Officers responded about 3:40 p.m. Aug. 2 to sophomore running back Devyn Ford and redshirt freshman offensive linemen Sal Wormley and Caedan Wallace’s apartment for a fire alarm, Penn State police wrote in an affidavit of probable cause filed Monday.

Police found marijuana “all over the floor” and detected a “very potent” smell of burned weed coming from the apartment, an officer wrote.

The charge itself isn't a big deal but Ford was already behind Brown and Cain before giving the coaches fair reason to doubt his judgment. PSU also added a pair of four-star backs in the 2020 class, Caziah Holmes and Keyvone Lee. Former five-star Ricky Slade transferred in the offseason because he wasn't seeing much opportunity. Again: loaded.

[Hit THE JUMP for... good rivalry news? Good rivalry news!]

2. Michigan. Call me a big believer in Zach Charbonnet, whom I expect to look much more like the five-star with the astonishing highlight film than the less explosive version we saw in his freshman year, which Josh Gattis says was marred by lingering injuries:

"I think Zach is playing at such a high level, it’s great to see Zach playing out there being who he is," Gattis said. "I think everyone knows, Zach is tough. He battled through some injuries in high school and he came in a little banged up, needed to get cleaned up. He battled through a number of different injuries last year. To see a guy that is a true freshman battle through adversity and injuries and still play the full season says a lot. He’s been able to spend this offseason focusing on his body. First and foremost, he’s as chiseled as can be. He takes such great care of his body and it’s really impressive. He’s always in the weight room.

"He’s so mature about his approach and his preparation to get his body feeling the best it can be and playing at the highest level. Now that he’s feeling great, now he reminds you of the player that he was in high school. Even going into year two, just knowing the run schemes and having a better feel for everything. He’s been impressive out there. He’s been a totally different player and everyone is going to see an even better player than what you saw last year."

A healthy Charbonnet could the program's best back since Mike Hart.

Michigan's options at RB don't end there, of course. Hassan Haskins displayed good instincts and a mean stiff-arm in emerging as a starter-quality player last year. After completing his punishment for academic misconduct, Chris Evans gives the backfield a receiving threat who can still function as a between-the-tackles ballcarrier; he even snuck in at #50 on Todd McShay's preseason top 50 overall(!) draft prospects list, good for fourth among RBs. Versatile freshman Blake Corum might be too talented to keep off the field.

And, yes, in short-yardage situations, they also have BEN "OL' MURDERFACE" MASON at fullback. This is a backfield equally suited for spread-and-shred or smashing faces. Having a quarterback who (fingers crossed) can make the correct reads in option looks should also create more big-play chances for this group.

3. Ohio State. JK Dobbins is now a Baltimore Raven. While there's still plenty of talent in OSU's backfield, there's also a lot of uncertainty. The top three backs are all coming off major injuries. Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon is a former four-star recruit who had efficient numbers in the explosive Sooners offense as a backup but saw his workload diminish even before a knee injury required season-ending surgery. He had his best season as a sophomore in 2018; even then, Kennedy Brooks was significantly better on a per-carry basis.

The most experienced returner is Master Teague, who averaged 5.8 YPC as Dobbins' primary backup and will push Sermon for the starting job—if, that is, he's really as recovered from his spring Achilles injury as claimed. Teague is a one-cut back who looks to get upfield and run through arm-tackles. He provides a solid floor when healthy, though he's probably more Mike Weber than Dobbins. Fellow sophomore Marcus Crowley had some explosive plays in mop-up time, then tore his ACL and missed the last four games of the season.

Three-star Miyan Williams is the only incoming freshman at RB, so barring a breakout from redshirt freshman Steele Chambers—who got the redshirt-legal four games of garbage time last year—the rotation is probably going to be comprised of some combination of Serman-Teague-Crowley. There are almost enough red flags to drop the Buckeyes a tier; I know better than to do that.

Tier II: Established Dudes

Stevie Scott (8) has pushed out most of his IU competition [Bryan Fuller]

4. Minnesota. When the one-two punch of Rodney Davis and Shannon Brooks was lost to injury in 2018, then-freshman Mohamed Ibrahim rescued the running game by averaging 5.7 yards on 202 carries, showing pile-moving power and the durability to be a featured back. The return of both Smith and Brooks ate into his workload last year but didn't dull his effectiveness; now those two are out of eligibility.

While losing two members of a three-headed backfield usually leaves a thin depth chart, the Gophers have a ready-made backup available in redshirt sophomore Bryce Williams, who was the #2 back in 2018 before redshirting last year when Davis and Brooks were available again. A few youngsters will push Williams for carries; PJ Fleck has a way of unearthing overlooked talent and freshman Ky Thomas, who put up absurd high school stats in Topeka, fits the bill.

5. Indiana. Mike Hart protégé Stevie Scott enters his third year as the feature back in Bloomington. Scott had a slight sophomore slump after breaking the thousand-yard barrier as a freshman; I thought the issue there was mostly poor line play. He's a powerful back who's reminiscent of Hart, albeit a 6'2", 230-pound version of him. Scott isn't going to run away from a lot of defensive backs but he'll run through them when given the space.

Scott's stranglehold on the backfield led to three transfers from the position group in the offseason. Four-star sophomore Sampson James also put his name into the portal only to return; while he didn't find much room to run last year, he's got the talent to be an impact player if IU can block better.

Tier III: A Safe Assumption

6. Wisconsin. It's not Jonathan Taylor, we know that much. That all but locks in a downgrade, but it's a downgrade from "instant-impact NFL player," and this is Wisconsin. You can bet they're going to find somebody good. From my HTTV preview:

There doesn’t appear to be a suitable Wisconsin Running Back from last year’s other contributors; redshirt sophomore Nakia Watson didn’t crack five yards per carry while redshirt senior Garrett Groshek is best suited reprising his role as a passing-down back.

But it’s Wisconsin. The top in-state recruit of 2019, Julius Davis, comes off a redshirt year he needed to recover from sports hernia surgery. Redshirt sophomore Isaac Guerendo, a speedster with good size, is a dark horse candidate for carries after finding a positional home. Top-150 2020 signee Jalen Berger arrives for the fall after spurning his home-state school of Rutgers for greener Big Ten pastures, a reliable sign of future stardom. At 6’0”/205, the true freshman may be the most prepared to take over an every-down role—or at least head off a muddled backfield-by-committee situation.

This looks like a true platoon situation to start the season. My money would be on either Davis or Berger (or both) squeezing a player or two out of the rotation as the year progresses. Groshek, the team's third-down back even when Taylor was around, is the only RB who looks guaranteed to have a role.

Tier IV: Good Back, Bad Situation

rare footage of Elijah Collins in open space [Barron]

7. Michigan State. The Spartan line was a complete mess last season, making it difficult for any ballcarrier to show much beyond a knack for diving back to the line of scrimmage. By virtue of managing to gain positive yards on most of his carries, Elijah Collins emerged as the bellcow back as a freshman, averaging a respectable 4.5 YPC. A look at the game log shows it was a rollercoaster 4.5 YPC season (via cfbstats):

MSU fed him the ball regardless of whether the offensive line was capable of opening holes, leading to a lot of inefficient performances that weren't really on Collins. He had one of the bigger gaps between eye test and stats that I've seen.

Collins isn't necessarily a home-run threat, though, and given the state of the O-line—not to mention the likely downgrade in the passing game—that's the main thing MSU needs to put up points instead of punting on 4th-and-3. While he's a good back, the numbers may not reflect that.

The backup duties should be split between sophomore Anthony Williams Jr., who struggled last year but has some upside as a versatile receiving back, and senior Connor Heyward, who also struggled last year and put his name into the transfer portal before withdrawing it this offseason. Either breaking four YPC would be a signifiant improvement on last year.

8. Rutgers. Change around a few names and numbers from the MSU backfield situation and you get the Rutgers backfield situation. From BiSB's preview in HTTV:

For those who have followed Rutgers for a while, presumably out of morbid fascination, you will not be surprised to learn that they have some running back talent. Isaih Pacheco is a complete back who can produce yards after contact, as can sophomores Kay’Ron Adams and Aaron Young.

Despite that talent, though, they gained fewer than 4.1 yards per carry (excluding sacks), fourth-worst among Power 5 teams. Because Rutgers’ offensive line is bad. Very bad.

Pacheco squeezing out 4.3 YPC behind that offensive line was legitimately impressive; Adams and Young both hung in the mid-3s. There are players here, but RU replaces four of their five starting linemen, so it's safe to assume it'll be tough sledding once again.

Tier V: Hoping to Unearth One

9. Maryland. There's a similar amount of mystery here as with Wisconsin. As you'd expect, that's projected to work out less well for the Terps, who lost the three backs who'd project to the top of the depth chart: Anthony McFarland (NFL fourth-round pick), Javon Leake (undrafted early entry), and Lorenzo Harrison (medical retirement).

Offseason reports have Jake Funk—who was ranked outside the top 1000 as a 2017 recruit, has 46 carries in three seasons, and tore the same ACL to end each of the last two seasons—as the leader for the starting job. He's evidently ahead of Tayon Fleet-Davis, another former low-three-star who was the least productive of MD's three main RBs last year, though he was their best receiver out of the backfield. Fleet-Davis also got a DUI last November, which hardly ingratiated him to the new coaching staff.

Given the above, there's going to be a lot of Terrapin faithful hoping four-star freshman Peny Boone will seize the job once he gets more practice time. Boone comes out of Detroit King; I don't believe Michigan pushed hard after their offer but MSU certainly could've used him in their class. His most notable offers were in the Iowa-Nebraska-Tennessee tier.

Comments

UMmasotta

October 2nd, 2020 at 10:20 AM ^

I think that would only make sense if there is reason to believe that you are more likely to catch Covid while playing in a game than not. I don't think there's been any indication that there's significantly greater likelihood of that, and I assume any starter not playing would be on the sideline anyway. If that's the case, I don't see why any team would play any differently than in other years.

Also, anybody playing at all this year is obviously very motivated to play despite the circumstances. I can't imagine any coaches telling a player "yeah, I know you've taken on greater risk and done a ton of extra work to make sure you test negative all year, but we're gonna have you sit this one out."  

lsjtre

October 2nd, 2020 at 9:51 AM ^

I am extremely excited for our backfield, some lethal dudes back there to be sure and a balance of new blood, established veterans, and up and comers

JakefromStateFarm

October 2nd, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^

Depending on offensive line play, I could see Michigan having the strongest run game in the conference. I think PSU has good running backs who benefitted from defenses scheming to stop KJ Hamler and their passing attack. Having Charbonnet healthy and Evans as a change of pace back could be dynamic. If Corum is really good enough to see the field with this deep of a running back room he will be special.We will see but at worst I see a very slight edge for PSU because Journey Brown is very consistent. Also, I hate to say it but I remember Sermon being a very solid back for Oklahoma a few years ago and wouldn’t be surprised if he put up monster numbers with that O-line.

outsidethebox

October 3rd, 2020 at 8:05 AM ^

The Michigan RB room is very strong. Here, how well the OL comes together will be critical but nothing will be more critical than the play of the QB. I anticipate the defenses jamming the running lanes and blitzing the hell out of the QB. And unless and until the QB makes them pay for stacking the box there will be no place to run. I expect the slots and WRs to have a lot of opportunity with a wide open field and single coverage but the QB is going to have to make the quick read and throw.

A State Fan

October 2nd, 2020 at 10:13 AM ^

Glad to have football content back! I agreed with Lombardi at 9 in the QB rankings. It's scary that our offseason hype is "well he worked on his accuracy".

HOWEVA, Elijah Collins at 7 seems like the "OL rankings bleeding into the RB rankings", not "quality of the players at this position".

There is an argument to be made that he had a better year than Charbonnet who is #2, and Stevie Scott who is #6. Then who even knows about Wisconsin at #5, but they're also getting "OL rankings bleeding into the RB rankings".

He avg'd 4.5 YPC, Charbonnet 4.85. Charbonnet had an OL that ranked: 49th in Line Yards, 44th in Std Down Line Yards, 31st in Power success rate, 41st in Stuff Rate. Collins ran behind: 121st in Line Yards, 125th in Std Down Line Yards, 96th in Power success rate, and 113th in Stuff Rate

The idea that "well now Charbonnet is healthy!" is something I'll believe when I see. He may or may not have had several knee surgeries last year (Meniscus last winter, scuttlebutt of maybe getting a drain in the season, Gattis talks of "clean up" this offseason), you generally don't get healthier after that many, you just get to have a functional knee again.

Also, when you compare Collins to his backups and Charbonnet to his, Collins was way better (~1.4 YPC) with the same OL (indicating it's probably him that's good). Haskins actually put up a BETTER YPC than Charbonnet. So you could easily say that Charbonnet was a worse option than a rFr RB who played LB the year prior.

AZBlue

October 2nd, 2020 at 10:31 AM ^

This is a comparison of Running Back Rooms, not individual players.  (Reading is fun!)  Yes there is a bleed over from OL capabilities as they go hand in hand — and MGoBlog does “results based charting”.

I personally think Charbonet, Evans, and probably Corum end up better than Collins but even if you disagree I cannot see anyway you can think the position is comparable between the 2 schools.  If you have any debate I could see it with IU (or MN or WI) in terms of RB talent of the top guy, but you also can assume that for sure MN and WI the OL will get their guys stats that the MSU may not.

A State Fan

October 2nd, 2020 at 10:37 AM ^

Yeah, I know it's the RB position, not just specific players. But I think Collins could be a top 4 back in the B1G this year (I think he was top half last year). I think a top tier back should be ranked higher than Indiana and Wisconsin's RBs.

Then I'm also just comparing to Charbonnet because this is on MGo and I - as a state fan - must always compare to Michigan in every aspect of my life.

Edit: If you think about the upcoming Fee-Fi-Fo-Film, Collins will have a star on him. Will the Wisconsin RB? Doesn't a star matter?

ex dx dy

October 2nd, 2020 at 11:59 AM ^

I can see your point about Indiana. The two writeups (MSU and IU) look pretty similar to me, to the point that they should at least be in the same tier. Wisconsin is definitely getting OL love with their placement, but that's not atypical for MGoBlog. If the question they're asking is, "What kind of damage is this position group going to do?", then you necessarily have to factor in what the other groups are doing.

AZBlue

October 2nd, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^

Not sure Collins would deserve a star (Charbonnet neither based on 2019) - the star designates dangerous players or actual "stars".  Just because he will most-likely be the largest source of offense in 2020 for MSU doesn't mean he qualifies in that respect.  (See Cody White in last year's fe fi fo film)

If you take out Illinois and Western numbers from his stats and he was 177 attempts for 626 yds. - 3.53 ypa.  His performance versus Illinois -- 28 for 170  (~6 ypa) was awesome........but Charbonnet and Haskins combined for 30 for 241 (~ 8 ypa) against that same team - so maybe more a statement on the Illinois run defense.

Also worth noting in my opinion that he only managed 3.5 ypa vs. Rutgers and 2.75 ypa versus Maryland at the end of the year - granted at that point he was almost all of the offense.

I do think Eli C. is a good back and may become a very good back but Scott from IU is also good back and there is a better than decent chance that the #1 back emerging at UW will put up better numbers than Collins.

JonnyHintz

October 2nd, 2020 at 2:37 PM ^

Maybe if it was a comparison of just the top back, you’d have a point. But it’s about the running back room. Collins by himself doesn’t stack up with any of the rooms mentioned. Especially when you factor in Collins had his stats boosted by a couple big games but was largely ineffective in many others. 
 

Charbonnet’s injuries are also well documented. Not really sure how you blow off the validity of them. 

bronxblue

October 2nd, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^

I think Collins is a good back but he also got 1/3 of his yards against WMU and Illinois last year, and most of his damage in the Illinois game happened in the first half.  So while I agree the offensive line undoubtedly hurt Collins, I agree with Seth that he isn't some home-run threat fully stymied by a bad line.  And comparing his relative performance versus his backups (I assume you mean Williams and Heyward) doesn't feel particularly enlightening; Heyward tried to transfer early into the season and Williams only saw 38 carries all year, mostly late in games. 

By comparison, Michigan's entire backfield shared carries far more equitably, with Haskins, Wilson, and Turner all seeing the ball more than MSU's backups.  I actually think Haskins should get a plurality of carries this year, but that's not an indictment of Charbonnet; I think think both of them are really good.  And as a backfield, UM's is way more promising than MSU's even if you have a higher view of Collins because after him it gets into the land of misfit toys.

WolvesoverGophers

October 2nd, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^

I want to believe that the combo of a maturing offensive line and a stacked group at RB provides Joe Milton time to develop and takes some pressure off of him.  A more balanced attack would be a good thing to see, especially with a maturing QB.

Mongo

October 2nd, 2020 at 3:40 PM ^

The most successful teams in the B1G have had very strong rush games ... OSU, Wisconsin, PSU.  Michigan has the raw material for a top-tier run game this year and that takes a lot of pressure off Joe Milton and the passing game.  Hope to see a lot of sucessful play-action deep balls enabled by a top-tier rushing attack.   

outsidethebox

October 2nd, 2020 at 10:09 PM ^

Due to this year's extensive lack of offensive experience Michigan's opponents are going to smell blood in the water and come after them like never before. They are going to stack the box and take the run away. This will present a significant challenge. There is nothing in the Harbaugh era that demonstrates that the coaching will be in place to prepare for the execution required to meet this challenge. That being said, there will be great opportunity for speed in space to do tremendous damage. Hope springs eternal.

Montana41GoBlue

October 3rd, 2020 at 8:53 PM ^

With McGrone and Ross roaming the field as LB's I actually do not see a team tearing us up on the ground this year.  Believe our weakness will once again be the pass, even with Dax in the secondary.