THE ESSENTIALS

Right: a very good mascot

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

This hasn't been updated for the UNC game and may not before tipoff. Thanksgiving week tournaments: a bit tough to schedule around.

THE BRACKET

Is no longer necessary. This is the title game of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. For what it's worth, the last two winners have gone on to take the national championship, something you should expect to come up on the broadcast one or two dozen times.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Gonzaga is coming off an Elite Eight appearance in which they were, like Michigan, knocked out by Texas Tech. They've lost a few NBA players in Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke, and Zach Norvell. Starting point guard Josh Perkins and his backup Geno Crandall both graduated. Mark Few has built an elite program, however, and this year's Bulldogs enter this game at what had been an empty-calorie 8-0 until their overtime win over #15 Oregon in the semis.

With all that production gone, big man Filip Petrusev has gone from an efficient freshman on the edge of the rotation to the centerpiece of the team. In what was a ragged game all around in the semi, Petrusev stood out, scoring 22 points (7/15 on twos, 8/9 FTs) with six offensive rebounds, nine defensive boards, an assist, a block, and three turnovers. He shot 64% on twos last year and displayed three-point range; while he's 0-for-6 from beyond the arc this year, he's at 64% again inside of it with a good free throw rate and percentage.

Fellow big Killian Tillie, a senior import from France, sat the season's first four games and the quarterfinal win over Southern Miss while recovering from a knee injury. When healthy, which hasn't been often the past two years, Tillie is one of the better stretch big men in the country. Oregon's athleticism gave him trouble; he fouled out in 27 minutes with seven points on 3/11 shooting and a couple turnovers. At his best, he can bash down low, rebound well, and hit threes at a 40% clip; a second game in two days may not bring out his best, though he'll have a size advantage when he shares the floor with Petrusev.

As is the usual with Gonzaga, the lineup is filled out with excellent shooters. Small forward Corey Kispert took the lion's share of his shots from beyond the arc last year and hit 37% of them; he's at 45% on 51 threes so far this season. Texas A&M transfer Admon Gilder is a career 37% three-point shooter on 414 attempts; he's mostly a spot-up shooter on this team, though he's yet to heat up this season. North Texas grad transfer Ryan Woolridge is adapting well to a lower-usage role despite being the nominal point guard, or at least was until Oregon held him to a 1-for-7, two-assist, two-turnover performance.

The bench is short, which could play a factor in both of these teams's third game in three days. (It's also a relief to your author writing his third preview in three days.) Freshman forward Anton Watson, who'd ably filled in for Tillie, hasn't played since rolling his ankle in the first minute against Southern Miss. That leaves sophomore wing Joel Ayayi, a good passer and excellent marksman this season, and freshman big man Drew Timme, a solid finisher who's active on the offensive glass.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

Gonzaga is one of the few teams approaching Michigan in eFG%, and their offense moves in front of M's by being better at everything else—avoiding turnovers, pulling down boards, and getting to the line, with a particularly large gap in the latter two. They tend to work inside-out; while they have a lot of shooters, they prefer to work those guys open while the ball is going through the post.

They're also an excellent defensive team, again with a similar profile to Michigan's with a gap in two areas, this time turnover rate and rebounding. They're good at limiting outside shots and forcing opponents to go one-on-one.

THE KEYS

Clean the glass. Even more so than against UNC, Michigan can't afford a possession gap against Gonzaga, a team more likely to make you pay for giving them a second chance. Isaiah Livers is going to have to punch above his weight class for a decent portion of the game at the four, and Colin Castleton's minutes spelling Jon Teske will be key. So will Teske's, of course.

Play under control. Zavier Simpson did a much better job against UNC of playing within himself on offense, committing a lone turnover after eight in his previous outing. Wasting possessions against a team this efficient on both ends is a backbreaker. Michigan showed good discipline against UNC in knowing when and when not to push the ball up the floor and when to play it safe and reset; they'll need to be great against the Bulldogs.

Make their bigs run. Petrusev and Tillie are large and intimidating. I'd like to see Michigan do their best to pull those two away from the basket. When one is at power forward, that'll mean chasing Livers around the perimeter. Lots of high screens and bigs popping to the perimeter can accomplish similar things. Pulling those guys away from the hoop can open up scoring opportunities and add the benefit of wearing them out.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Gonzaga by 4.

If it's going to go down this way, my bet is it's because the Zags win the turnover battle.