BBQ Visitors Update

Before I get into the actual post, a quick update from 247's Steve Lorenz on the BBQ visitors list—as is the case with any recruiting event, a handful of prospects on the early list won't end up making it:

ATH Markquese Bell 
ATH Sione Heimuli-Lund 
TE Josh Falo 
LB Jordan Anthony

Michigan still is in good shape with Bell (who just set up an official) and Anthony; we'll see how matters develop with Heimuli-Lund and Falo.

Four current commits who were slated to attend, including Dylan McCaffrey, also aren't coming this weekend. There are, at least, two high-profile additions among 2018 visitors: four-star IN RB Markese Stepp (ND commit) and four-star IN OG Emil Ekiyor. [CROOTIN EDIT: Steve just let me know Stepp and Ekiyor cancelled late, too. Ekiyor may still try to make the trip, but Stepp definitely won't be there.]

About Our Ballz

KJ Hamler's comments about Oregon to an MSU reporter led to an early CB pick.

Anyway, the point of this post—which will turn into a recurring post on our Crystal Ball picks—is to go over our methodology for making Crystal Ball selections, since people go about making those picks in very different ways. For instance, Lorenz is pretty conservative with his picks, presumably because he has to account for the reaction from his readers and make sure he's not tipping the hand of a recruit who wants to keep an air of mystery about his destination (which happens fairly often).

Brian and I (we both put picks in on my account) take a different, more speculative approach—we're more willing to put in an early pick, keeping in mind that we can always change it if new information arises. While this occasionally comes back to bite us—like with the Ademilola twins, who had Michigan out in front, then made surprising early commitments on a visit to Notre Dame—it often has a big payoff, and also helps us show where we think a recruitment stands at the current time.

For example, we put in the first Michigan pick for Dylan McCaffrey shortly following his second unofficial visit to campus. As a general rule, an out-of-state (and especially out-of-region) prospect paying his way for a second unofficial is an excellent sign; we put in a Michigan pick for Nico Collins pretty much the moment his plane landed for his second visit, and thus far that looks like the right call.

We also look at what prospects are saying (duh), and just as importantly, who they're saying it to. Back in January, MGoBlog fave-rave KJ Hamler told an MSU recruiting reporter that Oregon was his dream school; at the time, MSU had offered and Oregon hadn't, but because we thought Hamler was good enough to get that Ducks offer, we put in the pick. Oregon offered in May and are now on top for Hamler. Hamler talking up another school to a team-specific recruiting reporter was significant enough for us to put in that pick early.

Team needs are also taken into account. Even after Markquese Bell said that distance was no longer a factor in his recruitment, we kept our pick on Rutgers until we thought he was a take for Michigan, at which point we changed the pick. We've also slowed our roll on putting in picks for offensive linemen because space is getting tight and there's a distinct possibility they add at least one more OL commit this weekend.

Normally, Henry Bainivalu would get a pick for taking his second unofficial, but unless he commits this weekend—which would be an unexpected development—it's unclear if M will have room for him if he extends his recruitment too long. To be honest, neither of us are entirely sure what to do about the OL, since Michigan is at or near the top of the list for more prospects than they can possibly fit into the class; for now, we're sticking with our early picks on Wilson, Ruiz, and Slaton, but that could easily change.

Some picks are more speculative than others, since our goal is to have an opinion on the main prospects on Michigan's board. If we don't have a pick in for a Michigan target, it's a sign we really don't have an inclination as to where he could wind up. Sometimes those picks are essentially "Not Michigan" picks; we have a Rutgers pick in for NJ DT Corey Bolds because we don't expect him to be in M's class after that looked like a distinct possibility early on in his recruitment.

It's also worth keeping an eye on when we put in picks, because it's worth more points on 247 the longer you have a correct pick. We have Michigan picks in for Isaiah Wilson and Cesar Ruiz from last fall, and while the Wolverines are no longer the outright leader for either, they still have a good enough shot at each that it's not worth changing those selections until we have solid info that they won't be coming to Michigan. If a pick goes in shortly before a scheduled announcement, on the other hand, we usually have a good idea of what's going to happen.

I think that about covers it; our picks come down to a combination of heuristics (like the second unofficial and who-says-what-to-whom as signs of high interest), team need, and the occasional nugget of inside info we receive. So far it's working out pretty well; we're 29/32 on 2017 picks, good for 20th in the expert rankings, and only Steve is ahead of us among Michigan-centric experts (shakes fist at Steve).

Latest Picks

Going forward, this series will cover our latest Crystal Ball picks, which you can always find here. There's no way I'm going to cover all the CB picks we have out there, but here are a handful we've put in recently:

OH DL James Hudson to MSU: I changed this from a Michigan pick when Hudson announced he'd decide soon and it wasn't clear if he was even a take for Michigan. While the Wolverines still have ground to cover, Hudson is a take and he'll be at the BBQ tomorrow; I may have been premature in switching this one.

AL OT Toryque Bateman to Michigan: When a guy flat-out says there's a 50-50 chance he commits, it makes this easy.

NJ ATH Markquese Bell to Michigan: Covered above. The biggest obstacle for Michigan looked to be distance from home, and that's no longer a factor.

NJ DT Fred Hansard to Florida: After the top-tier Big Ten schools passed up on Hansard, Florida is showing serious interest, and we followed 247 national reporter Steve Wiltfong and 247's Florida insider in putting in this pick.

IN WR Mac Hippenhammer to Iowa: We'd had a pick in for Penn State, then Hippenhammer named Iowa his leader. Sometimes these are pretty simple.

Thus ends this week's discussion of ballz. There will be much more ball-gazing in the future.