Football Scholarships #s w/ a 27 Player Class

Submitted by alum96 on

I realized we were going to have sizable attrition with the "44 seniors" on senior day along with this quite massive 2016 class but until I looked over the depth chart more closely I didn't realize how much is about to hit: 11 players.

Excluding the out of left field guys like Jack Miller and Blake Countess I believe we only had 3 last year with Hayes, Russ, and Heitzman? (maybe I forgot some) Those 3 "firm handshake" types hit in late January, so we are going to have a very busy period here in the coming month with new recruits committing concurrent with a lot of names exiting stage left.

I know we don't do specific names but here is a chart of eligibility - even if you look at the guys with 1 year of eligibility left and remove anyone who was not a serious contender for playing time in 2015 that only gives you 7 names so 4 others would have to be out there.  Should be quite interesting to see how it shakes out.

# Players Eligibility
27 1 yr
16 2 yr
26 3 yr
27 4 yr
   
96  

 

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rob f

December 27th, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^

(regarding attrition and "firm handshakes") is that the 2016 season is one this team is built to win.  Sure, we play our two toughest rivals on the road (thanks *%##@+^# Brandon!), but both of them will lose a lot more of their starting lineups than Michigan will.   I just don't see Harbaugh skipping 5th years for anyone on the roster who provides quality depth in key or thin position groups.

Another factor to consider in how the 2016 roster is constructed pertains to incoming grad transfers.  From what we know, there are potential incoming QB and OL transfers being considered.  And I would love to also see a quality experienced LB added to the mix if there's one out there somewhere.

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Save Us Mel

December 27th, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^

It's a great point that 2016 is built to win - the team returns most of the starters from a 9-3 team and will have many seniors playing their final season.  The flip side to that is that the starting lineups for 2017 look pretty thin at this point.  Harbaugh is going to need a lot of the 2016 recruits to contribute in 2017 to keep the momentum going.  It's a fine line between keeping a 5th year guy that might contribute for one year versus bringing in an extra recruit you might need the next year.  Thankfully it's Harbaugh making that decision.

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rob f

December 27th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^

pointing that out. It's just that I'm of the mindset and belief that Michigan has to go for it immediately when the opportunity is there; building for the future will receive a big boost as a result of success in'16. Besides, in the extremely tough B1G East, we have to start by knocking off MSU and OSU sooner rather than later if we're going to gain an upper hand in the long run. There are a number of reasons Jourdan Lewis and Jake Butt both decided to return next season. I have to believe that winning the B1G was one of those reasons. And I, for one, think having them and other upperclassmen back goes a long way toward attaining the goals of the Michigan team, both short- and long-term.

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ppudge

December 27th, 2015 at 10:11 AM ^

Don't forget potential transfers IN. We're looking at that Texas offensive lineman and a possible grad year QB, so that would bring us up to 29 entering meaning 13 are out.

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Richard75

December 27th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^

Interesting. The thing is, though, there are several current SO/rSO guys who seem highly unlikely to contend for next year's two-deep. Although there will surely be a surprise departure or two, it's pretty clear where the necessary additional attrition will come from.



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recklessaBrandon

December 27th, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^

I think people are overstating how much attrition will come from 5th year guys. Seems like there are a lot of guys with multiple eligibility left who are looking to transfer out. I doubt Harbaugh will need to push out many solid 5th year guys who are in the two deep.

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East German Judge

December 27th, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^

I am sure we will get some surprises that decide to transfer as they may not have been able to keep up with the pace/competition/zeal/intensity that Harbaugh brings.  As we all know, the vast majority of the players here were recruited by Hoke and were expecting his style for their 4 - 5 years.  While they may all respect Harbaugh and his track record and wanted to give it a shot, it is another thing to actually live thru it and some of them may not have the same drive that he demands.

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erald01

December 27th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^

Just win and whatever it takes to do so. In todays CFB you cant win big unless you beat the system. Its time to catch up with the rest of the big time programs and have an even playing field. I am glad Jim is recruiting to win NOT recruiting based on noce guy crap. At the end this is a business and to be the best you need to beat the best.



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Jimmyisgod

December 27th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^

There's bound to be a couple real surprises on top of the several we expect. It's not just going to be the kids at the end of the bench, it would not surprise me if a current starter or two left.

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ElBictors

December 27th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^

So rather than blindly speculate about players who might or might not be on the roster by the Fall, the board has instead devoted two pages to speculating about how some players, parents and fans will hypothetically react to board content (if they even read it) if the fans speculate about things they have no idea about ....? Lol

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 27th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

balance in the roster to some degree. I assumed 27 with the current 23 plus a DB, WR, DT and OT. After forcing a choice of 13 exits with some consideration of specific players, the imbalance seems most evident with receivers by adding 5 recruits with no grads, OL with 5 recruits and 1 grad, and RB with 3 recruits and 0 grads. Lots of change coming ... 1 QB (+1 recruit -1 grad) 3 RB (+3 -0) 0 FB (+0 -2) with Shallman or others in Houma role 1 TE (+1 -1) 2 OL (+5 -1) 2 WR/Slot (+5 -0) 1 DL (+5 -2) 1 LB (+3 -3) 2 DB (+4 -2) 1 Specialist (+0 -1)

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alum96

December 27th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^

you have to take into account who was lost during the year as well.  My first thought was wow we lose 1 OL and add 4/5?  But we really lost Jack Miller, Bosch, LTT this year so we lost 4 during the course of the year.... these 3 just didnt make it to the (end of) season.

Same with say Pipkins on DT and Countess as a DB.  Can't just look at the 13 we lose to graduation but the losses during the year he is replacing on the roster.

Obviously running back stands out but we all expect names to drop there.  And WR where I expect multiple players - if playing time matters - to not be back. 

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 27th, 2015 at 8:41 PM ^

before or during the year is moot if the ending count is over/under the count for a "balanced roster". The addition of 5 OL gets the team to 16 - which is a typical allotment for OL if the other groups are typical. Conversely, RB is clearly heavy with 10 (5-6 is typical) so that means other groups need fewer than typical. So OL or some other group must absorb the overage. Debating the groups is pointless without a comparison if the total allocations to stay w/in 85. We can readily see the groups with too many, but curious to see where other folks allocate the 13 exits.

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alum96

December 27th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^

Guy has had 1 superlative month in his career - can we cool it a bit.  He was 1st team on 1 ballet and didnt even make 3rd team on the other, it was a strange one.  You don't leave early to be a 5th rounder - look at Lippett who had a wonderful 2014 and was drafted about that late and can play CB.  Chesson had 1 month ilke that - Lippett had 1 year.

Do you think Chris Godwin should declare early? More catches, more yards per catch than Chesson this year.  Most UM fans probably don't even know his name.  How about Simmie Cobbs Jr and his 60 catches for 1000 yds and 17.3 average?

Chesson had all of 45 catches. 20% of his season production came in 1 game vs the high school defense than Indiana rolls out.

This sort of talk reminds me of "When are Walton and Irvin declaring?"

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

December 27th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^

1. Chesson is finishing his 4th year. 5th yr WR are not exactly a hot commodity for the NFL. 2. He turns 22 this week - he would be the oldest WR in 2017 drafted in the first 5 rounds if 2013 and 2014 patterns hold. 3. He will produce strong combine results in combination with 6'3" height. That won't improve in 2917 vs 2016. 4. Generated 45 catches for 706 yards - both are equivalent to Michael Thomas. 5. Top picks: Thomas, Coleman, Treadwell. The rest are relatively indistinguishable from Chesson. 6. JH has persuasion within the NFL - he would advocate for Jehu's work ethic and upside. I do not think he should depart (same with Willie), but family situations and guys's personal goals are not known. Sometimes a great month creates a strong year and that's enough for a senior to go pro.

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Pepto Bismol

December 28th, 2015 at 11:05 AM ^

My opinion, of course:

1 & 2 are irrelevant.  This isn't the NBA where being a college junior is some kind of sick demerit that means you stink.  The NFL wants anybody who can play.  Chris Weinke was drafted at 28 years old.  So was Brandon Weeden -- a first round pick.

3 - He can't improve his strength or quickness?

4 - Had 646 yards, but whatever.

5 - So he should be content to be in some indestinguishable 2nd tier and just hope for the best on draft day?  Wouldn't it make sense to try to improve his stock to be considered a top tier WR?

6 - If JH has that much respect and persuasion with the NFL, do you really think an extra year of development under his teaching is going to hurt?

 

I think we're both on the same side here, but I didn't like your points. No offense. 

:thumbs up: 

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Jinxed

December 27th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^

Honestly I don't see how we're under 85 after NSD. People here are going to say "but the coaching staff knows who's already leaving..." which is exactly the same excuse other fanbases use when it happens to their team..

Fact of the matter is some kids are going to end up getting pushed out the door one way or another...

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GoBlueNorth

December 27th, 2015 at 11:31 PM ^

I agree that it won't be easy to get to 85.  I would rather think we come in low and offer schollies to some 5th year players or grey shirts.  It might bode well for the future if we could have more balanced classes every year.  We're signing almost as many this year as we have the last two years combined.  Stay classy.

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