Forde Yard Dash predicts UM to beat NW, MSU, OSU, contend for playoff.
In his weekly article for Yahoo!, Pat Forde predicts the following things will happen:
• M will end Northwestern's undefeated season this weekend
• M will end MSU's undefeated season on 10/17
• M will end OSU's undefeated season on 11/28
• M will have a chance at making the playoffs
He goes on to say:
The Wolverines have allowed 14 points in the last four games, and if they win what could be a three-and-out-a-thon against Northwestern on Saturday they will likely come into Oct. 17 against Michigan State playing better than the Spartans. Win that game, and Michigan State will taste a defeat most bitter at a time when it assumed it had the upper hand in the state. Keeping winning from there, and Harbaugh-Urban I could be the stuff of legend. The Michigan man-crush hero worship already in full effect over Harbaugh would reach screaming-teenage-girls-over-One-Direction levels. It would rival the Saban idolatry in Alabama, perhaps even exceed it.
I mean, sure, NSFMF, but it's a fun read.
Link to the full article: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/forde-yard-dash--predicting-when-each-undefeated-team-will-lose-032638433-ncaaf.html
October 6th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
but we have 2 more months to improve and we are getting better every week. A lot of football to be played and to help our O Harbaugh will unleash Jabrill in the slot.... Raback it!!!
October 6th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^
in fact it really wasnt all that impressive...defense of course not wthstanding BUT I thought BYU was our best game to this point...and we have to imporve on that to beat NW and MSU...we still have work to do
October 6th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
the same as Harbaugh's, Congrats. Thanks. Next. We move on till the end of the show and see where it takes us. You can't build a team until its finished being built. And you don't know what your gonna get till the job is finished. Every project has issues and problems to deal with before it's complete. And you're never satisfied or comfortable with what you've got till you're done and can fully appreciate the effort.
I mean in 1997, no one knew how good the team was until it went to Happy Valley and raised the roof. Then it got blown off in late November and raised again at the Rose Bowl. That's the only NC experience I recall for this program and that's how it was done,
October 6th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
but they have showed us their hands. However it's not what the "experts" told everyone it would be. There is no reason to believe that OSU or MSU has some "wild card" that they would only use against us. So far this season, we have all played 5 games and at this point Michigan has played better football against tougher opponents that either OSU or MSU, and that is simply a fact.
Past results are not indicative ... blah, blah, blah Plenty of football left ot be played, but I love tha fact that Michigan's newly earned respect is 100% based on this year's team. OSU and MSU hype is still based on last year's results - which doesn't count for squat !!!
Go Blue!
October 6th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
they haven't. MSU and OSU just came off the sleepiest portion of their schedule. Teams have peaks and valleys throughout the season. The last time Michigan State "tried" they beat Oregon, the last time OSU "tried" they blew out Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. I could give a shit less about Purdue and Indiana, same for Central and NIU. People who think that MSU and OSU are the teams that you have seen the past couple of weeks are crazy. We needed a goal line stop to beat Ball State in 2006. Ohio State needed a mirable to beat Purdue in 2002. These teams were not all of the sudden "not good" for these weeks, they took weeks off, plain and simple, and that is what State and Ohio State have done. People who don't think these teams are legit are in for a rude awakening. I am more confident about this State game than I have been in close to 10 years but that does not mean that State is not a very formidable team.
October 6th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 2:16 PM ^
I think you were the guy who -- after I said I thought Purdue would scare the daylights out of MSU -- that MSU would obliterate Purdue and that you had observed MSU and they are just as good as past years. Please excuse us if we raise an eyebrow at your insights and/or predictions.
I'm partially buying the idea that OSU is ironing out the kinks. MSU? They flat-out look like crap. (And no, this is not like past years where they played shutdown D in September while the offense figured itself out). I'm sure we'll get their best effort and it will be a tough game but as of now that's a pick-'em at worst for U-M.
October 6th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
they went up 21-0 on Purdue in the first quarter. Yes, they let things get a little too interesting, but Purdue was "driving to take the lead" only if you consider flailing a hail mary on 4th and 15 while getting pummelled in your backfield as "driving."
And look at your post. You say that State is crap and that they are a pick em for Michigan. WHAT THE HELL does that say about Michigan. People, we don't want to denigrate the BIG, that is not how to acheive elite status. How does it benefit us in the least to try to "prove" that State sucks. It is completely counterproductive to all causes.
October 6th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
not sure why the continued explaining. Just look at their offensive and defensive numbers this year vs. last. Football, like most sports, is not a game in which you magically say "ok, now it's time to play". MSU's defense is nowhere in the same universe as last season. The offense is middling at best. They held on to beat a very bad Purdue team at home (and they didn't go up by 21 until the 2nd qtr) ... but this wasn't new this season. Injuries have changed the landscape at MSU.
Michigan has its own offensive issues, but none on the defensive end.
Go Blue!
October 6th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 5:19 PM ^
instead you rely on rhetorical flourish and hyperbole (I'm being generous; another word would be "lying") to mask what, on your part, has been very bad prognostication and analysis:
1. "went up 21-0 on Purdue in the 1st quarter" (truth: 2nd quarter. Lies make Baby Jesus cry. More truthfully, I could also say Purdue outscored MSU 21-3 in the latter two quarters).
2. "Purdue was 'driving to take the lead'" (sarcastically) (response: you mean much like they 'drove' to cut into the lead three other times?)
3. "flailing 'hail mary' on '4th & 15'" (would have also accepted: they had a 1st down at midfield and a 2nd & 4 in MSU territory. I suppose MSU was cool with that because, you know, they weren't really trying in this game).
4. My original post was that Purdue would "scare" MSU and you said MSU would "obliterate" them. Google "Michigan State Purdue 2015" and see the words "scare" and "brink of upset" to see how most writers saw this game. (And anecdotal note: I was at a Detroit bar with a couple MSU fans who exhaled in audible relief after Purdue's 'Hail Mary').
5. To clarify: "State looks like crap" =/= "State IS crap" (according to your paraphrasing). These are all relative statements. I'm sure they will play up for U-M, and based on the talent we assumed they had, the edge at QB, and the problems we assumed U-M would have (e.g. offensive playmaking, turnovers), for this game to be at-worst a pick-'em is remarkable, particularly considering MSU is undefeated and in the Top 5.
6. "How does it benefit us?" You brought this up in the other thread and it completely undermines all of your arguments. If you are blatantly saying you are trying to spin and gerrymander the facts so that MSU looks better than they are (much like a certain loud-mouthed Italian radio host that you mentioned in your other reply) then that is a completely different discussion, one I'm not interested in. I like analyzing what actually IS, and not getting into an SEC-style circle jerk to promote our B1G opponents.
October 6th, 2015 at 7:53 PM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^
I still don't see wins over both of the rivals without improvement from the offense. Not trying to be Debbie Downer, but I think there are some very real limitations to this team as it stands today.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
I'd rather we lay low until the OSU game while somehow quietly compiling 10 wins.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
We are at 4 wins and we are about the farthest from quite as can be. I say just embrace it, love it, live it. This is so much better than the past seven years. Lets enjoy this ride.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
One game at a time
October 6th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
We have no influence on the games, mate, which means we can talk about whatever we want.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
Umm, that's not true. If I don't wear my yellow smiley face boxers on gamedays, UM could lose.
October 6th, 2015 at 5:32 PM ^
keep asking us to 'be positive' then?
October 6th, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^
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October 6th, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^
Pat Forde might be one of the greatest minds in all of football. As of today.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
He's not really outright predicting this, he's sort of presenting a plausible scenario and saying it could happen, but he's not going on record that he thinks it will happen.
I hate the way he has to "number" everything so that his topics (or whatever) add up to "forty." At least he doesn't seem to be doing the "Dash-ettes" any more. He made it sound like all those actresses and models actually cared about his column and he knew them somehow, and it came off as super creepy.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
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October 6th, 2015 at 10:12 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
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October 6th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^
Doing research on NW this week they also are talking playoffs. Based on resume - if they knock off UM and just have to play West teams they right now have an easier path in regular season. With the same issues on offense of course!
If they beat UM and Iowa next 2 weeks,they have some not so great teams like Neb PSU and Wisc along with B10 baby seals left. They avoid OSU and MSU.
Iowa avoids OSU MSU and UM. I havent gone over to their boards to research because we dont play them and well...they are Iowa. But probably some dude there is talking playoff too.
Iowa - NW is going to be a huge game next week if NW pulls off this upset.
October 6th, 2015 at 5:34 PM ^
Someone summon Jim Mora, Sr., to talk to the 'cats. I'll bet anyone they don't get to nine wins in the regular season.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
My hopes have been crushed too often during the last 7 years.
One game at a time boys- Beat NW
October 6th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
We, as fans, can talk about the other games.
October 6th, 2015 at 5:37 PM ^
who do you like to win the September 4, 2027, game at Texas?
You've really got a bee in your bonnet about people who say "one game at a time" huh? Seems like an odd pet issue.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
Our ofense still needs a lot of improvement. DeVeon Smith's running, Darboh's one-handed catch, Butt's screen pass and Chesson's end around are great plays, but it still feels like we need to gel. The defense is playing very well, but Maryland sort of sucks. If we beat NW decidedly with a strong offensive performance, I think MSU will happen.
I'd love to see DeVeon Smith-Ezekial Elliott be Biakabatuka-Eddie Geore 2.0.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^
I'm afraid the Jabrill Sweep will be fully operational when your friends arrive...
October 6th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
do you finally understand
October 6th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
I think he'll be put on the field and won't get the ball. All 11 MSU players will rush toward Jabrill on the snap, and Rudock will practically hand it to Butt, who will practically walk into the endzone. This will happen 4 times.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
Or Rudock will over throw Butt by five yards... :(
October 6th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
Forde Yard Dash. I just got that...
October 6th, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^
"The Michigan man-crush hero worship already in full effect over Harbaugh would reach screaming-teenage-girls-over-One-Direction levels."
Already there, man, already there.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
GIVE ME NOTRE DAME IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF!
October 6th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
Notre Dame might not be able to field a whole team by the end of the season. They won't make it the rest of the season without a loss.
October 6th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
But beating Michigan State, Ohio State, and Notre Dame in the same season would be very nice!
October 6th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:55 AM ^
This is only somewhat related perhaps, but I was actually doing the probability matrix for the rest of the season with Massey Ratings a little while ago and right now the estimates for various scenarios look like this -
Running the table - 3.8892%
6-1, sole loss being OSU - 7.550%
6-1 sole loss being MSU - 3.737%
6-1, sole loss being NW - 2.593%
5-2, lose to both rivals - 7.254%
4-3, lose to NW and rivals - 4.836%
The primary reason the numbers look as they do, of course, is that there are 7 games left and therefore 128 possible combinations of wins and losses, but I am saying there is a chance.