Revisiting Pre-Season Expectations

I said 8-4 before the season and I'm sticking to it. I figured before the season we'd lose to BYU as well. I still don't think this team is good enough (as it stands right now, but who knows in two weeks) to hang with either MSU or OSU. And we lose an annual "shocker" to either to PSU or Minny. But whoever we get in a bowl game is gonna in for a butt whoopin.

Before the season I though 7-9 wins with 7 the most likely scenario. Now I'm thinking 8-10 wins with 8 the most likely. Hoping I'm wrong.

While Rudock is a fifth year senior grad transfer, when Michigan flew in to play Utah he'd been practicing in our new offense for only 1 month. Now he's been in the offense, and in games, and under Harbaughs wing for 2 months, and he's experienced the full spectrum. I expect the offense to continue to improve, and maybe even try a few more downfield passes. Possible we win out if that happens, because our possession offense doesn't live/die by the qb.

I was at 9-4 including the bowl game, whether the regular season ended 8-4 or 9-3. At 9-3 we'd face a tougher bowl opponent; at 8-4 we'd get an easier matchup. I have a hard time seeing more than two more losses on the schedule. Either we beat everyone but MSU and OSU or we let one slip away, say NW just before Staee or PSU just before OSU, and take out our frustrations. But I figured we'd be 3-1 at this point all along so I'm trending the 9-3, lose the bowl game (to a Bama, Ole Miss, LSU or Georgia) route. This could encompass a NY6 bowl, btw. Ole MIss got into the Peach Bowl at 9-3 with baaaad losses (last year's models of LSU, Auburn and Arkansas). Our losses could be to the top 3 teams in the country when the first CFP committee rankings come out.

These are my pre-season expectations ... revisited.

I said 8-4 before the season. 9-3 is what I'd say now. 

Assuming no major injuries.

Ok, I'll bite...11-1!!!

Before the season, I predicted 9-3, with the losses coming to BYU, MSU, and OSU.  When we lost to Utah, I then figured 8-4.  But we made that up by defeating BYU, so I am back to 9-3.

While my "expecations" haven't really changed, I will say that the team has shown it has a much higher ceiling than I anticipated.  I didn't really think M would be a serious contender for a B1G title or playoff spot this season, and I figured that wins against MSU or OSU--though possible--would be major upsets if they occurred.  Now, MSU looks like a 50/50 game and OSU would be a modest upset.  

Still 8-4 with me.

But subject to change if last Saturday becomes SOP.

I'm expecting insane media predictions if we win the next two heading into the MSU game.

Earlier I thought 9-3, now I'm moving up to 10-2 even with the Utah loss. I think we'll knock off one of MSU/OSU and win out the rest.

I thought 9-3 before with losses to Utah, BYU, and Ohio state. But I honestly think Michigan has a VERY good chance to go into The Game with one loss. I'll say 10-2 to finish the regular season.

I was 8-4, but now maybe 9-3

14-1

12-1 before the Playoffs, all bets are off after that.

14-1

Oddly, I want to see this team crunch somebody, anybody, (yes even Maryland) on the road before I increment my thinking. I know that seems a little nuts, but while the staff is a clear and significant improvement, the group of players have never provided any stretches of consistent excellence and they have been, particularly, susceptible to clunkers in games that should have been road wins.

Yes, everything about the last few weeks suggests they should crunch Maryland, grind out a win against Northwestern and face MSU at 5 - 1.  But everything about the last eight years says anything more than 7 - 5 this season is gravy.

 

I'm always a big homer, and I picked 10-2 before the year.  Now?  I stand by it.

 

now I'm saying 10-2.

I'm a major homer and predicted 1 loss. I put money on Michigan to win it all at 60-1. Embarassed to say how much considering I'm very middle class and have never bet or gambled before in my life. Beers on me if we win, I guess.

I predicted 10-3 (after bowl game) because I didn't expect Harbaugh to disappoint (figuring 9-4 would still be somewhat disappointing given our talent level).  Since Harbaugh has this team performing even better than I anticipated, I'll bump it up to 11-2 now.  We look good enough, particularly because of our defense, to beat anyone, but it's still always difficult for a team to perform up to it's capabilities every single week, and we still need to show we can beat a good team on the road.  Can't say which game I think it would be, but I think we'll end up having one bad day where we get burned by turnovers.

Although I guess 11-2 would imply that the second loss would prevent us from making the B1G title game.  Since I don't have a specific game in mind for a second loss, I'll just say 11 or 12 wins and 2 losses.

I'm looking forward to line between 2 and 3 losses being a general threshold for defining whether a season was successful.

hey... does anyone know what the weather is supposed to be like at the game? I'm going...wondering if I can wear shorts or not.

but revising now to 15-0. 

I predicted 9-3 (pre-bowl game) with splits of Utah/BYU, Minnesota/PSU and MSU/OSU.  I'm sticking with it.....but the Minnesota/PSU sweep looks for likely.

1-1 in the MSU/OSU rivalries (likely scenario there was a loss to MSU and a win over OSU.

 

I'm between 8-4 and 9-3 now...a bit on the 9-3 side with a WTF! loss in here maybe to Indiana.

Let's chill the heck out.  I want to be a big underdog to "unassailable" MSU and then kick them in the gut.  Let's embrace the underdog mentality for once.

I said I'd be thrilled with an 8-4 season with a win against OSU or MSU or both. I feel the same

But if the trend in the first 1/3 of the season continues all year, and future seasons, in terms of competent play, decent fundamentals and quality coaching, I see 9-3 with 10-2 likely. The future is bright

I won't change that. Look at the hit Rudock took to the knee last week. How he wasn't hurt, I dunno? I know we want to RS Morris but you can tell how badly the staff knows a damn poor Rudock is still a better option. So, consider what one injury could do to the team. That's fact, not pessimistic. With health I'd still guess 8 wins (possibly 9) and I think we could get 3 more wins if I were paying QB (lol) so a minimum of 6.

I honestly had no idea at all what to expect from this team, only an educated guess of which games would be toughest. Given the new coach and grad transfers, this was the most clueless i've been since 2008. I suspected the offense would be much better than last season, because Hoke was so inept, but it's also a lot to ask players to quickly unlearn 2-3 years of awful coaching. So my expectation was 7-5 worst case and 11-1 best case. Now i'm thinking 8-4 worst case and the best case is a lot more realistic

Said 8-4 in the preseason. Still saying 8-4.

We will fight to the bitter end vs the rivals but it's hard to see us beating teams that have been built for years compared to a first year Harbaugh cleaning up the Hoke mess.

Also i feel like we will trip up to either minney, psu, or northwestern. We're better than all of them on paper, but two are on the road at night (and we seem to be cursed in those games). 

That said, the team looks better than anticipated especially the defense. But you have to remember, Utah moved the ball on us pretty well. I will hold off on calling them a great defense till they continue to shut down bad offenses, hold sparty under 20, and force more turovers.