Searchbits VII: In Earnest Comment Count

Brian

JH4[1]

All Harbaugh photos are hilarious

HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH. More NFL people saying no one ever leaves the NFL. Since these guys are all talking to NFL people that's not a surprise; it is a fact that he is telling his Michigan guys that he's seriously thinking about it. A bunch of people telling each other things they want to hear; won't have any clarity on it until there's a signature and a press conference. Steve Lorenz had an interesting quote in a considerably larger piece that sums it up($):

One source we've talked to extensively regarding Harbaugh had the following to say: "Jim can be a flake. That will be the major concern for Michigan. Anything at this juncture saying he's not interested is a smokescreen. His father, and both he and his brother, have a ton of respect for Brady Hoke and would not want to make it appear publicly like Jim is taking his job from him. From their end, they will want this process to appear as quiet as possible."

Whether Harbaugh flaked on Brandon or wisely avoided a guy he knew he couldn't work with is in the eye of the beholder obviously the former. That was posted smack dab in the middle of Hoke's firing, so the quote was addressing a situation that no longer holds. We may see some definitively yes or no action in the near future.

And I know people are inclined to discount Jeff Moss because he's never found a bomb he didn't want to throw, but he did have the Brandon firing presser before anyone, AFAIK, and his Michigan connect tells him that M will go after Harbaugh with many dollars and boxes of khakis:

The DetroitSportsRag has learned that the University of Michigan has offered their former quarterback and current San Francisco 49ers head coach a financial package that would make him the highest paid football coach in the world.

I doubt that, frankly. But there's been enough other chatter about how Michigan understands that this is a situation where spending marginally more money on the new guy will pay off in spades for me to believe that they're not going to come at Harbaugh with an offer that isn't at least top 5 college money.

ON MULLEN. Clint Brewster told the Michigan 24/7 site that he talked to three different college coaches over the weekend and all of them brought Mullen up as the guy who makes the most sense.

If Hackett's serious about demolishing the Michigan Man thing he's got to kick the tires there—ask about the QB grayshirt, MSU's tendency to recruit 30+ guys every year*, find out if he's going to be able transition to a very different style of recruiting. I'd think he'd be able to adjust better than Rodriguez. His previous stops at ND, BGSU, Utah, and Florida give him significantly more diverse experience than RR had. Florida's not Michigan (they take JUCOs) in terms of restrictions but they're certainly a lot closer to M than Mississippi State is, and then Utah and ND are close enough to M that there's not much difference.

*[A lot of those are sign-and-place JUCO deals because of the Bulldogs' status as the low man on the SEC totem pole, so the oversigning concerns are significantly fewer than those numbers imply.]

gundyx-large[1]

WHY GUNDY MIGHT BE AVAILABLE. This would still be a longshot, RR-ish secret mission type thing, but it is vaguely possible. Why? The last few days have seen the rumblings about discontent in the Oklahoma State program hit the papers:

If there were a device that could measure stress, Gundy would have buried the needle. I’ve covered more than 220 Gundy news conferences. There were times when he wasn’t very excited to be there, and there was one time – during the 2007 “I’m a man! I’m 40!” news conference – when he was really excited. Monday was different. I’ve never seen him like he was on Monday. …

I believe that 98 percent of the Gundy stress centers on his issues with Boone Pickens. I’m sure some of the stress is related to the current performance of his football team. Since OSU beat Baylor last year – in a performance that was as complete as there’s ever been by any Gundy team – the Cowboys are 5-8. In its last seven meetings with ranked opponents, OSU is winless.

That comes in the aftermath of a press conference in which Gundy spent a lot of time looking at his phone. Also:

Boone Pickens doesn’t run OSU football. Boone’s influence on the program has been greatly overstated. We know that because if it was up to Boone, Mike Gundy wouldn’t be the Cowboy football coach. …

Boone obviously doesn’t care for Gundy, Gundy expresses no concern that Boone doesn’t care for him, and everyone who cares about Cowboy football wonders how long this can go on.

This is followed with some conflicting information about how on the one hand you "couldn't run Gundy off with a shotgun" and on the other Pickens's disdain for Gundy arose when he poked around the Tennessee job.

That's why you call… just in case. Small chance anything happens other than "nope," but if Oklahoma State loses Bedlam it might be time for a jump. Stranger things have happened. Like…

UNDERWHELMING AND WEIRD. Jeremy Foley flew Florida's plane to Fort Collins in full view of the Flight Aware-monitoring public and was rewarded with a crowd consisting of every member of the sports media within 500 miles. He went to Jim McElwain's house; media members knocked on the door and were surprised they didn't get an answer, and then they had serious conversations without even drawing the blinds.

The good news: Jeremy Foley has never done anything remotely criminal in his life. You can tell because he's not in jail. The bad news: he's hiring a decidedly B-list target who's only had three years of head coaching experience and rode an anomalous talent, Dee Hart, to a 10-2 Mountain West season. The MW is not quite the MAC but this feels more like hiring Darrell Hazell than it should for Florida. Darell Hazell with a $7.5 million dollar buyout they "might" be able to bargain down if CSU is feeling generous for some reason. (Florida @ CSU? Might be happening.)

At least it's not Josh McDaniels?

Let us now reflect on what a miracle it is that Dave Brandon got fired what with Jeremy Foley's job not under a whisper of pressure. It takes a truly exceptional man to get axed from an AD job.

SO THEN WHAT DOES IT SAY ABOUT MICHIGAN? Unless Foley is truly bonkers he called the Pattersons and Shaws and such of the world and was turned down. I would assume that anyone who isn't clearly available is not available; Mullen is an exception because of personal animosity.

OOOH. Matt Hinton's rundown of the open Florida, Nebraska, and Michigan jobs doesn't have any news in it that Michigan diehards aren't aware of, but his suggestion for the open Nebraska job is on point:

Perfect Fit: Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi. …Narduzzi has spent 25 years as an assistant, the last 11 of them as Mark Dantonio’s defensive coordinator at Cincinnati and Michigan State. But Narduzzi has been up for multiple head-coaching gigs in that span, turning some down while building one of the most reliably suffocating defenses in the nation. Think of him as the upper Midwest’s answer to Charlie Strong, who spent years bouncing around the SEC as an assistant before finally landing his big break at Louisville at age 48, the same age Narduzzi is now. Unlike Louisville, Nebraska isn’t a stepping-stone to a glitzier gig (Texas, in Strong’s case), but neither does it have proven winners leaping to leave their current posts.

Keep the offensive staff, which has created a nouveau-option system that fits Nebraska and its available talent, and you might be in business in Lincoln.

UM. OOOOKAY. BUT NO. If you're wondering why anyone is chattering about New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton, he once went to a Michigan basketball game in a Michigan hat and bought a hot dog. Seriously. This makes him more of a possibility to Rivals($) than Dan Mullen, as he's on their hot board and Mullen is not.

Is it because Mullen is supposedly not a good dude? Well, they've got Bret Bielema—who defended a kid who tried to tear Steve Breaston's ACL and was widely regarded as sketchtastic in Madison even when he was the coach—on it, so no. The grayshirt thing is a problem, but we are talking about hiring Jim Harbaugh, who bombed Michigan in a presser. The grayshirt is something you can get over in a way that a flat-out scholarship yank would be tougher to. And Mullen has Midwest roots. To not even consider him would be insane.

Rivals keeps throwing out an Anonymous High Profile College Coach who is interested in the job; if the thing they heard is the thing I heard that would be Bob Stoops. Stoops is also prominently absent from their This Guy or This Guy and What About This Guy paragraphs.

ALSO NO. EDSBS threw out Steve Addazio's name on a whim, because he associates Michigan with boring offenses and bald guys. Our great and good friend Football Scoop chimed in that he was hearing that too, probably for the same reason he was doubling down on Michigan "struggling" after watching Hackett's presser.

Addazio is 55 and has two years at Temple and two seven-win years at BC to his name; tha andt he was a terrible OC at Florida. I mean, here's Athlon making the case:

Addazio wouldn’t be a splashy, name hire like Jim Harbaugh or Les Miles, but he’s a good coach that would win a lot of games at Michigan. In two years at Boston College, Addazio is 14-11 and has recorded a .500 record in conference play in both seasons. Prior to taking over in Chestnut Hill, Addazio spent two years at Temple and went 13-11 during that span.

Sign me up?

Addazio is Brady Hoke's resume without the Michigan connections. I can no longer say never, but that has a 1% chance of happening, if that. Addazio would be tragic Michigan Manball thinking in everything but actual presence in Ann Arbor. He is a low-upside pick in an environment where MSU and OSU are at peaks.

Etc.: Hiring criteria. Not too sure about the "has to be a head coach already" thing when Fisher, Stoops, Mullen, Gundy, Patterson, and even David Shaw are amongst the most successful guys in college football right now.

Comments

funkywolve

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^

is as long as the Niners are in playoff contention, I don't think he's going to leave.  If Hackett is putting an all out assault on getting Harbaugh, it probably means waiting until the Niners are eliminated from playoff contention and/or the playoffs before it's official.  Since the Niners have the Raiders this weekend, they are most likely still going to be in the playoff race another 10 days.  They travel to Seattle for a game on the 14th.  That very well could be a must win for the Niners playoff chances.

Everyone Murders

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:08 PM ^

I think your concern is the reason that Hackett made it clear that different candidates will be placed in different swimming lanes.  If your inside dope is that Harbaugh is seriously interested, you lengthen his swimming lane until his playoff run is over.

I agree that Harbaugh would be unlikely to leave or announce he's leaving until the 49ers season is over - that would be some Bobby Petrino-style bushwa that would make me very nervous. 

Brodie

December 4th, 2014 at 12:29 AM ^

I don't think that's exactly what he meant by that though... if Harbaugh's swimming lane extends past what we're comfortable with and it gets into the middle of January, we can't wait forever.

Basically, I spend December gauging Harbaugh, Stoops and Mullen's (Miles if you want, too, I guess) interest in the job and then if Harbaugh is available on the 28th you either pull the trigger or if he says no you move on. I might extend this until the 5th, as that would allow all candidates to coach their bowl games, but if the 9ers are still playing I would move on.

Honestly if Stoops is a serious candidate, I might not even wait unless Harbaugh is willing to sign his name in blood promising he will come on December 28th

markusr2007

December 3rd, 2014 at 3:56 PM ^

The 49ers are going to demolish the Oakland Raiders (1-11) this weekend. They'll be 8-5 then.

Then Harbaugh's team has to run the gauntlet vs. some pretty fine NFL teams like Seattle (8-4), San Diego (8-4) and Arizona (9-3).  I would not be surprised to see the 49ers lose all of these games and finish 8-8.  It sort of depends to the extent Harbaugh has "lost the team" and whether any of his injured stars can return to the line-up.

If the 49ers do indeed go down a predictable slide between December 14 and December 28 weekends, the pressure is going to be ratcheted up big time re: Harbaugh disclosing his future intentions. Of course he's also a pro at not answering questions at press conferences.

leu2500

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^

1) You're not going to be able to get someone in place soon enough before recruiting shuts down 14/15 December.

2) Recruiting starts back up 15 Jan.  If you can hire someone 1st week of Jan, he'll be able to make calls and set up visits for when recruiting starts up again, giving him ~ 3 weeks before signing day.

FYI, Bill O'Brien interviewed with Penn State on 1/5, when the Patriots had a bye.  He coached thru the Super Bowl. 

 

 

 

 

alum96

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:35 PM ^

SF will split the next 2 - Oakland is horrific and Seattle just beat SanFran last week in SF, they are beginning to gel and their D v SF offense right now is just not fair.  That puts the 49ers at 8-6.  San Diego is a 50/50 game, and Arizona will be playing for its lives - as will San Fran.  Best case I see is 10-6

Detroit should be in the playoffs as a wildcard barring an epic collapse - they have 2 creampuffs coming up Tampa and Minn - both at home.  Even if they lost to Chicago and GB its 10-6.

Green Bay is in.

The loser of Philly/Dallas (prob Dallas) will be competing with Detroit and the loser of Zona, Seattle, and San Fran for the 2 spots.  Zona with Stanton could go into a tailspin but would have to go 1-3 to finish at 10-6.  It is possible - they have a tough schedule.

As someone else said, that offense right now is just tragic and if the players start to see the writing on the wall they may begin to pack it in late.  I think a loss in Seattle, if in resounding fashion, could set that up.

Some great games coming up - go Eagles, go Seahawks, go Cardinals, go Cowboys, go Lions.  Even you Packers.

redsoxaa

December 3rd, 2014 at 3:57 PM ^

I know Harbaugh wouldn't be official until the ink is dry, but what's a legitimate time line for knowing UM has confirmed interest from him?  I am thinking that we could finalize a contract with anyone else on our list in 48hrs.  Even Les would come here rather than coach the bowl game.

evenyoubrutus

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:02 PM ^

have you noticed any tangible difference in the tone or what have you of the insider emails you have gotten about Harbaugh this year compared to the search four years ago?

Brodie

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:11 PM ^

isn't "Harbaugh is a flake" a bad thing to be hearing? Doesn't that mean he could just be lying to his Michigan budz, telling them what they want to hear to get them to stop annoying him about this?

If Stoops is interested, fuck Mullen and Miles. Pull the trigger the minute Jim says no

alum96

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:14 PM ^

"Top 5 college money" is $5Mish.  Thats a huge gulf between that and $8M.  Huge.

And yes I get the ROI aspect but again, a year ago Saban was making mid $5s.  No one else today makes $5.5M+.  You could get Saban for $8M.  It's just an amazing # if anywhere near true.

UMaD

December 3rd, 2014 at 5:28 PM ^

You can hire a very good (though probably inexprienced) non-name coach for $2M/yr or you can hire a $5-8M  "name" coach.  It's a huge difference when you are talking about 2% of your entire revenues and far more than that of your 'profit'.

We are not talking about "peanuts"

Blue in Yarmouth

December 3rd, 2014 at 6:37 PM ^

But 2% is peanuts. Forget the figure and look at the percentage. When football brings in the revenue that it does don't you think the getting the best person for the job is worth 2% of your budget?

If you hire a crap coach for 1% of your budget and wallow in mediocrity for another 4 years how much of your revenue is lost because of it over those years? I would bet more than the 2%. Have you ever done a cost benefit analysis before???

2% is 2 cents of every dollar. 2 dollars out of every hundred. Garb aught is worth that and more to this university right now.

UMaD

December 4th, 2014 at 12:15 AM ^

We paid Brady Hoke a ton of money to come here and replace Rich Rodriguez, who paid not to coach after paying for HIM to come here.  The assumption that more money = better results is not a given.

The departments surplus revenues was less than 9M last year.  Since they have to still pay Hoke and Brandon plus a new AD, whatever you pay the new coach cuts into profits dramatically.  So another way of looking at it -- you can cut your profits by around 80% if you hire an expensive new coach or even go into the red.

 

Jonesy

December 4th, 2014 at 3:43 PM ^

Grabbing me off the streets and paying me 10 million to coach the team isnt going to have better results.  Grabbing the best coach available and paying him 10 million to coach the team because thats what he demands will.

 

If we have 9m surplus revenue then thats 9m per year extra we could spend on a coach.  We're supposed to be non-profit and we have to continuously invent ways to spend money like upgrading non revenue sports facilities, might as well spend that money on a coach.

Optimism Attache

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:17 PM ^

I'm curious about Mullen's Midwestern roots Brian refers to. He's from Philly-area PA, went to high school in NH, and attended college near Philly.

Save two years as a grad assistant at ND and two as QB coach at BG--stints that ended over 10 years ago--he doesn't appear to have a history here. Am I missing something?

alum96

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:27 PM ^

No you are not.  Save for 2 years in Bowling Green Mullen has not been in the Midwest for the better part of 15 years.  The part of Midwest roots have little about where you are born and a lot about your relationships with HS coaches in places like OH and PA.  Mullen is not about that.  I guess you could argue "culturally" you know the Midwest growing up here but really that is not going to help you grab a 16 year old recruit or hear about a guy that you should be looking at under the radar from coach so and so who you've known for the better part of 6 years. 

I will keep repeating it - Mullen is the 2014 search what Sumlin and Shaw would be to 2013.  A year later Sumlin and Shaw are not very high on people's lists all the sudden.  I think Mullen will be in the same boat 12 months from now (that's just my opinion, he could prove me wrong and win the SEC West next year) 

And we dont have the players for his offense anymore - we are getting rid of the last of them in this class.

Brodie

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:41 PM ^

1. Brian obviously means "Big Ten country roots", he's from the right area of the country in other words.

2. Is Notre Dame not in the Midwest? That would be 4 of the previous 15 years.

3. you have to understand the differences in context. It's like you assume every coach to be in the top 15 every year or they're a failure. The reason a southern guy like Hinton thinks Mullen is worth crazy money is because even winning 8 games at Mississippi State is enough to turn heads. Yeah, he won't win 10 games next year but nobody expects 10 wins at MSU ever. Literally, this was their best season in school history. Les Miles has never given LSU their best year in school history, to give you an idea of the differences in their respective situations.

Texas A&M is the kind of school that expects to contend for titles. Stanford is a poison pill and I'm not as down on Shaw as everyone else. Context is important.

alum96

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:18 PM ^

FootballScoop is reporting Beilema is Nebraska's sole focus right now.  As for Narduzzi he is basically Bo Pelini 2.0.  Abrasive, gruff, defensive oriented guy with zero HC experience.  Almost every HC search (hey been a Lions fan for ages, you see a lot) you go with a guy a lot different than the previous guy.  Heck we did that here too - hiring Narduzzi is literally hiring Bo Pelini again.  That hire makes no sense to me.

Go Blue in MN

December 3rd, 2014 at 8:05 PM ^

Not sure I understand Beilema's hopscotch if he makes that move.  Wisconsin to Arkansas makes some sense, but why did he make that move only to go back to a 2nd tier Big Ten program, especially now that he seems to have the Razorbacks turning the corner?  $$$$?  I'd expect Arkansas would match.  (Yes, I know historically NE>WI, but in today's world any advantage the Huskers have over the Badgers seems minimal.) 

Madonna

December 3rd, 2014 at 4:36 PM ^

In what universe is the University of Utah comparable to Michigan or Notre Dame, either as an academic or research institution.  Florida is an AAU school, the only one in the SEC besides Vanderbit prior to A&M and Mizzou joining.