Joel Klatt picks Alabama over Michigan in the Rose Bowl
Joel Klatt has been very pro-Michigan in these preview segments that he has done this season. He was a voice of comfort for us before the Penn State and Ohio State games in particular with his previews.
But he is now picking Alabama over Michigan in the Rose Bowl. His rationale is based on how poorly we ran the ball against Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game (a game he called). He attributes that to the Zinter injury and does not think we can adequately overcome it.
IMO, Klatt is the best analyst in college football, so it's hard to argue with him. But I am a little surprised that he takes Michigan's offensive performance against Iowa at "face value". Once the Semaj return led to a TD, Michigan's offense was purposely shut down. At that point the intent of the offense was to keep things from happening, not to make anything happen.
I don't know how good the Michigan offense will be against Alabama, but it certainly won't be a repeat of the Michigan offense against Iowa.
But . . . Klatt has to call it the way he sees it and this is what he sees. I respect his analysis. And I hope it's wrong.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
I'm predicting a middling to ineffective ground game and major issues in pass pro on offense will be our undoing. I really haven't seen much to impress me from our offense against good competition.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
I feel like our offense was better last season
Edit- it definitely was
Explosive plays went from 13th to 35th
Yards per game went from 19th to 65th
Points per game went from 6th-10th
Rushing yards per game 7th-57th
Passing yards per game 79th-71st
December 29th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
Clearly, last year's O-line was better (Olu and all). But we're still pretty good this year.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
I'm not sure "pretty good" gets you into the National Championship Game.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
Ya pretty good wouldn't even have looked as bad against Penn State or Iowa
December 29th, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
Part of that was the strange choice to go ultra conservative and play not to lose, which worked okay against bad offenses. It won’t work against Alabama and there’s no reason to ever play like that with McCarthy at QB. The only caveat is whether they were trying to protect whatever injury he had.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
Wonder how much of this is scheduling related...seems UM was in more games after half-time last year than this year so the starters played more minutes and the team put up more numbers as a result. This year they blew almost everyone out the water from the jump and the shut it down after the half for much of the season.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:01 PM ^
FWIW, FEI had Michigan #7 in opponent-adjusted efficiency in 2022 & # 5 in opponent-adjusted efficiency in 2023.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
Per play is a better measure
December 29th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
This is where Harbaugh is way wiser than you, as when asked what is the most overrated stat, and he said "everything but points". Michigan has the largest margin of victory in the nation at 27 points. It is an increase of 3 over last year's team. Michigan plays complementary football. Michigan could have scored more against PSU and Maryland, but zero need to do that and Moore made a prudent risk calculation. You <<<<<< Harbaugh at knowing how to win football games.
December 29th, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
The Big 10 was especially bad this year, so I’m not sure that’s a great measuring stick.
December 29th, 2023 at 7:44 PM ^
As opposed to what other powerhouse conference? If you look at SP+ and other objective measures, the B1G has 3 of the top 4 teams. UM's best two wins are OSU and PSU. They are 2 of the top 5 rated wins in the country.
December 29th, 2023 at 11:15 PM ^
What measuring stick do you propose? Michigan gets lead and Harbaugh shuts the offense down. I hear Alabama has more talent and is more explosive. I can see from the numbers that Michigan is more consistent but perhaps against inferior offenses.
Michigan is a 1 point favorite for a reason.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^
I would have to disagree. The stats don't matter. Michigan plays to win. They vary their offensive gameplan to do what it needs to do against that specific competition. They don't play for fancy-stats. JJ is a much better QB this year than last year.
December 29th, 2023 at 9:49 PM ^
So you’re saying we should have beaten TCU last year.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
I can't speak for all Michigan fans, but I have a suspicion that most don't expect to win this game (I don't). That doesn't mean we can't win, or won't win -- but it's understandable to have that feeling. Alabama has been a powerhouse for over a decade, while we've shit the bed twice in our two chances. For some reason I wrap the basketball championship losses into it too. We just seem to get to the doorstep but not through the door. BPONE or whatever you want to call it, does exist around here. Maybe for good reason. Hopefully this is the time we break through -- but for the most part my mentality is just to get in and see what happens.
December 29th, 2023 at 7:27 PM ^
Yeah I agree. I think we all fear this matchup. Poor postseason record, bad record against athletic mobile qbs, and our OL getting dominated by PSU and Maryland. Plus Milroe is a far better downfield Passer than JJ(probably because we never do it) is a bad recipe.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^
Until we beat a solid SEC team, I hate to say it, I don’t expect us to win.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:36 PM ^
This is and has been my take since the seeding. If UM doesn't have something they've been holding back on or can iterate from it'll be an ugly game. If same ol' UM comes in, it'll look more like 21 UGA than 22 TCU as far as points scored and general closeness of the game.
December 29th, 2023 at 8:39 PM ^
This Alabama team isn’t invincible and alot of pundits are treating them more based off the idea of Alabama versus what this Alabama team actually is (which is Saban’s worst team since his second season according to SP+). You see it in the difference between the spread and what SP+ predicts (where there is normally very little divergence).
Alabama has good players and Saban is the best coach in college football so it won’t be an easy game or anything. But there’s no reason not to be confident if we come in with the right gameplan (which as noted in the podcast today means running JJ a lot, much more play action, and finding effective ways to use Donovan Edwards). This Alabama team can definitely be had as long as we come out with the right approach.
A lot of the media narrative surrounding this game has to do with JJ and him needing to have a really good game for us to win. And while he will have to have a good performance and run a lot, it’s really Blake Corum who we are going to need a good performance from.
December 29th, 2023 at 9:19 PM ^
What do you know? Your a doctor, not a miracle worker.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
He makes his summary case at 15:35.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
Klatt also picked M to beat TCU when it was a popular pick. The game still must be played. It's our turn.
December 29th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
And we would have if we didn't have the most mistake filled game of the season. We can win this game.
December 30th, 2023 at 7:50 AM ^
The game is a pickem. The toughest team will win
December 29th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
I heard this this morning too. Respect his opinion. I do think he calls them as he sees them. More disappointed that he called him "Nick Sainristil" especially since he personally handed him the MVP trophy only a few weeks ago.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
Yeah, WTF?
Maybe he thinks our QB is Paul McCarthy and that's why he's not that impressed.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Does Paul have any eligibility left?
December 29th, 2023 at 4:09 PM ^
If it turns out that he did, I'd probably be very surprised. Maybe I'm amazed.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:16 PM ^
I see what you did, there.
Do you like Paul's original 1970 cut or his Wings Over America version in 1976?
December 30th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
That's a tough call. If I have to pick, I'll take the 1970 version. IMO, it has a little more raw feel to it, which makes it a little more emotional. Just what a love letter to your wife ought to be. But either one is good stuff.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:12 PM ^
We've done pretty well with left-handed quarterbacks over the years, so there's that...
December 29th, 2023 at 6:16 PM ^
Lately they’ve been calling plays like Paul McCarthy was their QB.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
Disrespekt (TM)
December 29th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
I see this comment about respect for Klatt's opinion. I think he was against us about the signgate. I lost respect for his opinion. He was talking like a company guy.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^
In the valley of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Klatt's one good eye beats the blind analysts but that doesn't mean he is always right, or even good to great.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:49 PM ^
"I think he was against us about the signgate."
What do you mean by against us? I believe he said we deserved to be penalized since it is a rule, but that the whole thing was overblown and that there is more significant cheating that should be addressed in CFB (tampering).
December 29th, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
Well, deserved to be punished without any proof or investigation. I expected more from him.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
I too think Alabama wins since Saban is usually the one coach you don't want to give a month to prepare his team and Michigan/Harbaugh historically shit the bed in bowl games, but I do have hope.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
Harbaugh has changed a lot of narratives the past three seasons. He can put the bowl game anemia to bed with a win on Monday
December 29th, 2023 at 4:55 PM ^
This is what put me on Harbaugh's side starting in 2021. He needs to take the next step on Monday.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:24 PM ^
Historic logic supports you. I also have terrible memories of mobile QB's breaking UM hearts (though we have one ourselves now, too) But Saban also usually has the best team on the field talent-wise and minimizes mistakes to win. He does not have the clearly better team in this game. He is less at QB, RB, OL, TE, DT, LB. He is superior at WR, DE and CB. Safeties are a wash. Now, one issue of course is that their DE's don't go up against our DE's, they go up against our OT's, etc. So matchups matter.
December 29th, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
Didn't Saban win SEC championship against Georgia and lose to Georgia second time around in 2021? With a month to prepare? Well, it can happen again. I have hope.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
Well, they were without Jameson Williams for much or all of the rematch.
December 29th, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
Georgia was not full strength this year either.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
I have been wondering about this all month: since when is it Saban's preparation specifically that people worry about? Bama beat Georgia on December 4th, 2021 and lost on January 10th, 2022. Tua wasn't even the starter in 2018 when he was offensive MVP. I guess the best preparation happens years earlier when you're forcing underperforming players to medically retire.
He's had the best players and best teams a lot, he's won games and conference championships and national championships a lot. Makes sense. I keep hearing about his legendary preparation this month, for the first December I can remember, and it feels like people are just making up a reason to ignore the fact that this year's Bama has not looked like a vintage Saban Bama team until the SEC Championship Game.
Michigan's bowl game history seems like a more relevant point of reference. I'm hoping that previous results were due to teams that were actually punching above their weight, teams with insufficient motivation for consolation bowl games, and injuries. And, of course, exceptionally bad luck against TCU on a few pivotal plays.
December 30th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
This point of view makes almost no sense to me.
IMO bowl games are really nothing like playoff games, so Michigan has a history of 2 games.
The Georgia game was not a problem of Michigan playing poorly. Georgia was just better .
I agree that Michigan blew last years game. Imo it was more of a player fail than a coach fail, but plenty of blame to go around.
Prior year history doesn’t matter much though I think.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
I don’t disagree. Michigan’s offense simply isn’t good enough to beat Alabama.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
JJ is good enough. He has the tools. We can't "protect" our 5-star QB in a playoff game. We are going to have to let him cook. No team can justifiably expect to win a CFP game without elite QB play. That is as it should be.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:13 PM ^
And JJ throws on the run as well as anyone. Harbaugh/Sherrone also have a month to prepare, and they better use some of it to give JJ some space & time to throw (rollouts, chips, etc.)
I hope Harbaugh/Sherrone also use the month to figure out how to make better use of The Don and Alex Orji.
If MIchigan struggles going straight at Bama, there better be a creative, practiced Plan B.
Personally, I recommend The Touchdown Play.