Line Trending Against Michigan

Michigan vs. Vegas

The general public doesn't know shit about football which is why Vegas exists. Louisville was +1 just last week. People were betting OSU heavy before the game.

That’s not a surprise…there is a recency bias with them beating Georgia and this drives lines/public betting.   
 

Saban and Bama with a month to prepare and UofM not having won a bowl game in like 6-7 years, your not missing anything, they are betting based on history.

How many championship games have we had in the last 15 years without an SEC team? Most people predicted the line would move in their direction because of SEC, Saban, and a roster full of four and five star talent. Let's not forget that our O-line will not be 100% and Bama brings more healthy team into the Rose Bowl.

If I was an impartial bettor, I would have put money on Alabama Sunday afternoon. I don't care how poorly they played against Auburn or other SEC teams. Fact is, those sucky SEC teams are 7-10 points better than their companions in the B1G. 

The one thing Vegas can't account for, is a neutral site turning into a home game for Michigan. I'm hoping that we can make the Rose Bowl heavily tilted towards the good guys, so it feels like an away game for Bama. We've never had that advantage in the Rose Bowl.

#1 Vegas sets lines to squeeze all the juice out of everyone's bets

They know Alabama has a "Winning" reputation.

They know Michigan's bowl record is 1 and 5 under Harbaugh and 0-2 for CFP

They know how to manipulate your emotion and take your money based on perception.

Michigan is hungry, focused, talented and disciplined.  Does that guarantee success?  Michigan's destiny is in their hands.  Time will tell.  That's why this team is in competition  for a National Championship.  May the best team win it all.

We will have to play the best game we've played in the last 3 years to win this game. Simple as that. We are playing a team that top to bottom is better than anyone we have played this year; better than TCU; and probably the only team in the last 2 seasons that may be better than this Alabama team is OSU in '22. 

This game will come down to how well and diverse we can be with our running game. Will our OTs even allow a passing attack, and can we contain Milroe and confuse him.

Since 2016 we have come out poorly in our bowl games with actually the only real exception being 2019 vs Alabama. Putting in all the factors for both teams I would put our odds of winning right now at about 52%. If we both play our peak football I think we end up winning. We cannot give any room for error though.

Because Michigan hasn't won this game yet.  Michigan always loses this game.  Not necessarily talking about the CFP semifinal as a round or Alabama -- just this game -- be it Alabama, Georgia, whoever -- Michigan hasn't won this big game yet against the main SEC team that season in forever.  Michigan has to beat Alabama to end that pattern; until then, the public isn't going to bet on them with the same vigor.

I'm pretty sure we all were expecting this the minute the betting lines came out. 

This isn't a vintage Alabama team, but they still have Nick Saban, they just beat the #1 team in the country, and they still have the allure of "OMG ITS BAMA EVERYONE RUN AND SCREAM WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE" allure about them, which is still left over from the last decade of them laying waste to much of the rest of the college football landscape. 

Its probably also based on the fact that Alabama usually shows up big time in postseason games. The only exception to that which I can remember is the 2019 title game against Clemson, but other than that they almost always deliver under Saban.

Michigan.......has not. I mean sure, previous year's results shouldn't define what to expect with a different team this year, but that's the information that everyone has to go by. And the information states "Alabama historically rocks the postseason under Saban, Michigan poops the bed in the postseason regardless of who the coach is."

I don't get it either. The SP+ numbers posted in the other thread pretty clearly show Michigan as approximately 90th percentile of all CFP teams over the history of the current format and Bama in the bottom quartile, the various power rankings show Michigan to be about 9-11 pts better than Alabama, the data Brian posted the other day show Michigan a 50:50 bet against the FIELD and yet.... that betting line? 

Good, our team plays better when their backs are against the wall....Michigan vs. Everyone...BET...MF Go Blue!

I just think that even though it's now been three years since they won it all, to a lot of people they're still Saban and the Tide and the best overall program (and let's not forget they've now still made two of the three Playoffs since, opinions on whether they should have this year notwithstanding). Having another SEC team challenge them for supremacy isn't enough of a dent in that mystique. Hence, why I said elsewhere on here that Michigan really does have a huge opportunity on New Year's Day, to truly put that narrative to bed.

Pepperidge Farm remembers...

I mean, I want us to win more than anything...but if I were to ever start gambling, my money'd be on Alabama all day.

They have superior athletes, they've been here before AND won it all, and they literally have the greatest head coach in the history of the game.

On the other hand, our track record in post-season play under Harbaugh is awful.

Like it or not, Alabama is the smart bet.

Harbaugh is on the verge of setting a record for consecutive bowl game loses.  This isn't because he was set against vastly better teams.  You can't even blame opt outs as every team deals with those.  There's something in the way that Michigan plans for these games that we're incapable of getting past.  Harbaugh at Stanford was 2-7 in bowls.  Granted his talent pool there wasn't as good, but he has Since Harbaugh has arrived, he's 6-8 against non-conference power 5 opponents.  He has a lot to show if we don't want to just turn into the Bills of College Football. I don't know if the mindset of B1G play doesn't translate against other conferences or if he just doesn't understand the play elsewhere.  I can't imagine a game of x's and o'x can be so complicated that we're incapable of showing up in the big games.   

I maintain that we have an offensive line coach coordinating the offense. As long as there is no creativity in the offense, we’re not beating bama. The offense should be a lot better than what it’s been. This run run run up the middle bullshit hasn’t worked all year and yet it’s a staple of our offense. It’s hard to see our receivers doing anything against bama’s secondary and our line pushing bama’s d line. Moore draws nothing up in his playbook that inspires confidence, at all. Minter and the defense are the real MVP of this team 

• Saban with 30 days of prep.
• Milroe w/ 30 days of prep & generally improving every week
• Auburn game being discounted as their Super Bowl (like when we play MSU, it's generally closer than you would think)
• JJ looking average in his last 3 games
• Blake looking good, but not as good as last year
• Edwards looking very average
• Harbaugh to the Bears rumors

Those are my reasons as to why a non-Michigan fan would bet on Bama to win

It's also why Casino ESPN wanted Bama in the playoffs. They attract the bets.

I am not at all surprised.  It's Alabama and Nick Saban.  They have been the standard of excellence in college football since 2008.

Yes Alabama beat Auburn on a miracle play and I understand that Iowa has a top defense, but does it concern anyone that our longest TD scoring drive against Iowa was 6 yards!  And our only other TD drive was for 5 yards!.  Yes, we won the game by 26 but the offense will have to be better than that against Bama.  Milroe’s running ability scares me some too.  Michigan has always struggled against a mobile QB.

I thought the line would open at Bama -3, so this makes sense.    

I think this makes since. If I was a neutral bet placer I’d take Bama based off of history over our own. Doesn’t mean I believe we’ll lose. We will have to move the dam ball to get it done though. 

I placed a happiness hedge bet on Bama. I would be more than happy to lose my $50 if UM wins. If not, I have an extra $45 to help drown my sorrows. 

I’d guess it’s because people have seen how our rich man’s service academy except we don’t let our QB run the ball either offense is not very effective outside of the mostly offense optional B1G.

It might have something to do with Saban being 6-1 in Semi CFP and Harbaugh being 0-2...

Betting has very little to do with stats and match ups, it is the public's perception.  In this case it is not surprising that on a national level most people are going to look at the above records and pick Bama...

How the game plays out...

Well that will be another story...

I really don't care.

The game is played in the Rose Bowl, and the line doesn't affect it one bit.

Beat 'Bama.

BET.

JJ McCarthy #9 vs. Jalen Milroe #4

in the Rose Bowl

That's gonna be a great game fellas.

That is playing out exactly the way we want.  Let Alabama start thinking they can’t be beat.  Saban knows this is a problem and will actively work to keep it from happening, but how much can he control?

I think Alabama was peaking last weekend, and the 4 week break will hurt them.  Michigan was banged up last weekend, and the 4 week break will help them.

Keep feeling yourself Alabama!  This is not the Alabama team of 5 years ago and this is NOT the Michigan team of 5 years ago.

Perhaps this was already mentioned, but OSU went from a 6.5 favorite to a 3.5 dog vs. Mizzou after the Honda transfer.

feelingsball and 'Saban with a month to prepare', combined with the recency bias of Bama beating #1 UGA 5 days ago, are a big part of it. 

let them favor bama, I say.   The more M feels like people are against them, the more intensely they'll prepare, and the better they'll play.  (or so I am telling myself)

The narrative of "we lose bowl games" or "Harbaugh does poorly in bowl games" I think is something to consider but I wouldn't put much weight into it with THIS team. This team is different than all of the others. The coaching staff is different. The culture is different. All of it for the better. 

I think that the line shifting now is everyone listening to the loudmouths on tv that are saying "Alabama is peaking" and "Alabama has so much talent" yada-yada-yada.It's not like these talking heads watch every Michigan game thus making their opinions not valid. So the public listens to these "experts" and lays bets. "It's easy money!" "How is Michigan favored?!"

The sharps are smart. They will let this play out and wait for more information and watch how the line shifts. I would imagine Michigan ends up favored by 2 or 2 1/2 in the end and sharps will hammer when bama is favored. OR I'm wrong. But this scenario is completely plausible. 

GO BLUE.

I think that line is going to swing back to M once some smart money gets put down. This is a classic overreaction to a small sample size and is exactly where winning bettors try to find some edges.

What am I missing?

That Bama beat the #1 team, that Saban is the GOAT, that Bama always prepares well for big games, that Michigan has not been playing up to their potential recently, that Michigan/Harbaugh have a poor track record in bowl games, and that Bama fans are maniacal enough to put their money behind their team in large quantities. 

I believe Michigan can win, especially if they play up to their potential, but if they play like they played against Maryland or Iowa, they will have a hard time. 

The oddsmakers see this as essentially a toss up, I am inclined to agree

The positive in the matchup vs Bama is Michigan will be laser-focused and respect the challenge (maybe not be overconfident ala TCU last year).  The negative is, for all this team's greatness, we might just get out-athlete'd or "2021 Georgia'd".  I am terrified of trying to stop Milroe from breaking long runs--the guy is such a smooth runner, and fast.  I hope that our coaches can scheme something up that allows for Team 144's experience, discipline, and attention to detail to win the day.  If we can keep it a dogfight (not get blown out early like vs UGA in 2021) and get some turnovers/create some havoc (hello, Mike Sainristil), then I do like our chances.

What am I missing?

People are idiots, that's what you're missing.

I like being the underdog more actually

I think the rest of the nation looks at many things but here are a couple that have me sweating at night and gripping my pillow tightly:

a) Nick Saban with about a month of prep time

b) According to 247Sports, the Team Talent calculator has Bama #1 (1,015pts) and Mich #14 (850pts)

c) Zinter is out and the Oline didn't look great against an Iowa defense

d) McCarthy looked shaky at times against Iowa

e) It's Bama

Alabama is a team that makes mistakes.  They had a great game against a banged up Georgia, but we pick apart undisciplined teams.  The computer lines are very accurate, will be Michigan by at least a touchdown.  Alabama will get theirs by trying to make the game wild and let their talent do the work, but it wont be enough.

The stupid, name-recognition money is speaking early.

Nick Saban with a month to prepare has consistently fielded well prepared teams and that is almost certainly running through people's minds.  But, realistically, this Alabama team is not in the same ballpark as the championship teams of the past.  They're highly talented but inexperienced and I expect that to show up on the biggest stage.  Let's not forget they were healthy while UGA had two of their biggest pieces on offense hampered by injury. UGA's offense runs through Brock Bowers and he is not the same player anymore.  If Michigan continues to fight for every inch and uses the previous CFP heartaches to fuel them, the good guys will come out on top.  Go Blue!!