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You need Josh Schertz …

You need Josh Schertz …someone who can win with shooting and perimeter defense and live without high end athleticism.   The issue with the latter is that they don’t stay long enough to get developed.   If you have the admission standards and NIL issues of Michigan - you need to go back to wide shooting splits, minimal turnovers and limiting giving away defensive rebounds.   That’s what you do if you can’t roll the ball out and win….

Dutcher.....Brian Dutcher....

Dutcher.....Brian Dutcher....

I think their ideal…

I think their ideal candidate would Norvell personally.    Has recruited the South, is more likely to understand the Alabama culture/insanity.   Shame they hate Dabo Swinney so much - in his heart of hearts he would probably run to take over.    Also a bummer that Kirby Smart is NEVER going to leave Georgia.   He would be the perfect hire.....

DeBoer feels like an odd culture fit but he is a phenomenal coach.

Amen….

Amen….

Thank you Brian for every…

Thank you Brian for every part of this journey…the good and the bad.   You were there for me when I was fan alone in a rainy parking lot before a 12-10 slog against MSU with a familiar resigned fatalism.   Frank and real…a feeling all of us could feel from years of loving something that doesn’t love you back.  A perpetual sense of the unfinished….

Well my friend…business is finished.   
 

I love you all…today you are all my family.   You can ask me for a loan you will never repay and I will give it to you.   Because that’s what family does.

Go blue…now and always! 

I got the same on the…

I got the same on the Michigan side - I probably should have waited but at some point stopped caring.   Almost 3800 on the nose.

Has anybody heard of the champions circle? 

That’s not a surprise…there…

That’s not a surprise…there is a recency bias with them beating Georgia and this drives lines/public betting.   
 

Omg…that is hilarious….

Omg…that is hilarious….

I’m in BIG on OSU.   No…

I’m in BIG on OSU.   No Harbaugh on the sidelines is a far bigger deal than people realize….

Play action passes that work…

Play action passes that work…stop their running game with six in the box….Harbaugh gets magically reinstated 

Man if that last one can happen….I would be ecstatic.  Otherwise…I’m really, really concerned…

I'll go one step past Mad…

I'll go one step past Mad Hatter.   I think we lose this year and the primary reason is that people don't understand just how much a head coach does.   Beyond setting culture and strategy, they notice things from experience within a game that the team can leverage and calm things when they seem out of control.   JJ's three worst games are all with Sherrone at coach and our worst passing performances are with Sherrone at coach.  This isn't a knock on Sherrone but you are asking a first time coach to coach in THE GAME against a guy who has coached in this game for multiple years.   There is something to having Harbaugh there that is being grossly under appreciated.    This line will go below three points by game time and it should.   I think this OSU defense is far better than either edition we have played the last two years and they will hit some big shots when we cheat.   They won this game when they figured out how to play a new commissioner and waited until just the right time to drop that bomb.    Them getting the rest of the league behind them is not a surprise but was almost an added bonus.   Honestly all credit in the universe of dirty game because this will be THE difference this year.

They got what they wanted.  …

They got what they wanted.    They waited until Michigan was a generational team, when there was a NEW commissioner in place, and then disseminated this information "magically" with he explicit goal of getting Harbaugh suspended for THIS game.   Honestly I give Ryan Day and OSU all the credit in the world.   Sherrone Moore is not the play caller Harbaugh is and it will definitely have an effect on us.    JJ being so critical for our function such that if he is injured in anyway will have an effect on us.   His three least productive games have all come with Sherrone Moore as the coach.   I don't think that is coincidence.  

I hope the gambit doesn't work but I fear that it very well might.   And for these players that type of politics being played out around them seems genuinely unfair.  

My take as a lifelong lions…

My take as a lifelong lions fan has been consistent.    This regime has an actual plan, an actual culture and finds players who fit accordingly.    They don’t stray from it in anyway.   When you start being someone you aren’t or copying someone you can never be - you accomplish someone else goal not yours.   Dan C. appears to be built on accountability and Holmes is big on cultural fit.    I don’t love the positional value of the picks BUT can anyone here not see HONESTLY la porta, Campbell, Gibbs and Branch not being on the field getting meaningful reps?   They will ALL play and oddly many times situationally which means they feel they have enough talent to harvest and develop depth.   I think they wanted Witherspoon badly and he was probably top of their board.   Seahawks surprised them but they didn’t panic, had a trade in place, and got an extra pick.   The only player they drafted in this era who I believed didn’t really fit was Jameson Williams but otherwise I can’t look at their picks and feel like they don’t make sense from the standpoint of who they want to be culturally.  

And what do the lions do?…

And what do the lions do? Draft Jahmyr Gibbs….12th…in the first round.   Sigh:(.  Oh and Jack Campbell.   No value from either pick, could have gotten both lower.   Maybe there is a huge drop off on the their board after Witherspoon?   Made the trade knowing their guy would still be there?   It’s confusing….

EJ Holland….

EJ Holland….

France…lots and lots of…

France…lots and lots of France.   I’ve made a lot of money on Morocco but they have benefited from playing two teams that are very vulnerable to counter attack.  

My take is the following:

 …

My take is the following:

 

1).  They genuinely missed on a bunch of high leverage events that could have gone either way early in the game.   The initial 4th down that JSN probably makes the catch but Iggy did not.   HIGH, HIGH leverage situation where they could potentially go up two touchdowns early.   We come back with a 3rd and 9 back foot out route that goes to the house.   Another high leverage event that went in our favor.    That in my mind was where the tide of the game changed.

 

2).   We initially tried to play more press with our linebackers wider which exposed us to stretch runs plus crossing routes.   I think this was the initial strategy to not get beat down the seams or deep middle.   I think in the second half our LBs came in, we stretched wider with our ends and we went two deep on the safeties and it forced them to have to make a ton more plays to get to where they wanted to go.   Great adjustment....realized something wasn't working and decided to keep things in front of them and tighten up in the red zone.

 

3).   Offensively I think we were taken aback by how aggressive they came out - literally going at all costs to stop the run.   For a while it worked because my suspicion is this was not something we expected.   But once we hit the first big pass play we were ready to empty the playbook on the deep shots.   What I was surprised by was that they didn't just say "screw it lets back out into cover 2 and do what Michigan is doing....give up the strength, tighten in the red zone and slow the game down".   They instead COMPLETELY committed to one and zero high for the whole game.   Which was honestly clinically insane..until they were so far down that it was the only thing they could do.    

 

4).    Michigan isn't entitled....they go out there, play their way and let others respond.    You don't win these games only dictating your terms.   You win them by weathering the storm, coming up with creative ways to solve problems and THEN wear the other team down.   OSU just expected to win.    They thought we would fold once they hit us with all out firepower.   Once we didn't....you are in a knife fight.  And the last guy breathing.....wins a knife fight.

I really like Vanderbilt…

I really like Vanderbilt spread a lot…at home against Tennessee…I think they can win outright to be honest.   
 

I already took Missouri…that seemed obvious with 3.5 for the home team but weirder thing I suppose.  
 

What do you think of usc vs notre dame?

 

These are trap games…in the…

These are trap games…in the cold….in November after a grueling ten game schedule.   You cannot draw any conclusions from this game for EITHER team.    Saturday will be one of the best games of the series.   And it’s great to go into this game with excitement instead of dread.    They are a GREAT team and so are we.  It’s THE GAME!   

These are trap games for a…

These are trap games for a reason.  I took Maryland and Illinois to cover today.   If you’ve played competitive sports you know the concept of looking ahead.  It’s very real….

Hey man I didn’t get a…

Hey man I didn’t get a chance to congratulate you…I know these things are a huge labor of love and your reward is usually people telling you how wrong you are with a much more nominal knowledge base.   Rivals is getting a gem…really happy for you! 

Tell them everyday how much…

Tell them everyday how much you love them.  Some days they will say it back, some days they will roll their eyes, and some days they won’t even respond.  But they will ALWAYS know it’s truth in their hearts.   That’s why it’s important….

There is a you tube video of…

There is a you tube video of his father asking Dwayne when he was young and in the Ohio state locker room what he thought of Ohio state.  He had this huge smile that comes from a child’s awe at any amazing moment and goes,”I’m going to play here someday”.   I think about how his father must feel and the pain and certain anguish of knowing that the son he loves so much, who had such joy in living and doing what he loved, is just gone.   That person you love more than yourself is just…gone.   When I think about that, as a father, I just break down.   To the whole Haskins family, especially Mr. Haskins Sr., my prayers, condolences and heart felt sadness.   Too sad, too young, too soon. 

I think Georgia is a much…

I think Georgia is a much better match up for Alabama than Michigan.   Run first on Georgia is a recipe for disaster.   For almost three quarters Alabama without their top two wideouts had more yards per play than Georgia.   Georgia at the end FINALLY started running (really tried to establish the run the whole second half which was the right thing to do) and that took them to the championship but if they had any weakness…it was their secondary and their WRs.   Which Alabama had the horses to challenge.   Not having the WRs available sincerely hurt them.   Georgia won and I felt they were the best team in the country.  But I’m not convinced they are THAT much better than a fully healthy Alabama team.   

Honestly what he said seemed…

Honestly what he said seemed patently obvious.  Why is a different question and one OSU has to answer.   I’m genuinely more concerned about Iowa.  They ARE tough and ARE physical.   Michigan suffering a let down seems inevitable from this game.   This was a Steve Young level monkey off your back for the WHOLE program.   I don’t object to Gattis comments - I’m more disappointed that the comments portends an attitude that is leaning towards beating OSU as the playoff rather than realizing there is still work to do.  Iowa won’t be bullied…they will come in READY to punch back.  We have to be ready too and mentally I’m concerned that we aren’t…

Don’t be surprised if…

Don’t be surprised if Arizona wins the PAC 10.  That is a damn good team…they not only doubled the post but covered every shooter.  They are long, athletic and will be a problem for EVERYONE.    We should have beaten Seton Hall - that is the aberration so far really.  My biggest fear about this team is we don’t have 3 and D wings which makes the gravity around Hunter less effective.  Livers, Wagner, and Brown were shooters you had to respect.   Made doubling a bad decision…

Suck a diiiiiiiiccccc……

Suck a diiiiiiiiccccc….couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys.    Triple A will be there in Uhh 2 to Uhh 6 hours or so….go blue 

Suck a diiiiiiiiccccc……

Suck a diiiiiiiiccccc….couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of guys.    Triple A will be there in Uhh 2 to Uhh 6 hours or so….go blue 

I don’t think any one…

I don’t think any one understands all that Brian has been through.   It has genuinely been so much.   Other than Harbaugh and this team, I’m not sure there is anyone I am happier for.   He has given EVERYTHING to this blog.  His marriage, his career, his life.   With every loss he felt it and didn’t have “at least I’ve got a job I can go to”.   This IS his job….congrats Brian.   There is sunshine….

Weather….the belief is the…

Weather….the belief is the game might go more to the run.   I liked OSU at -6 which wax what it was two weeks ago so I took that.   Now I think the middle makes sense with 7.5 on the underdog.   
 

 

I don’t think so…I think MSU…

I don’t think so…I think MSU and their coaches know EXACTLY who they are.   A high variance team that takes big shots on offense and bend but doesn’t break on defense.    As I told anybody who would listen the Sparty win was a high variance win.   All the chopping wood, we don’t flinch is marketing speak.   They won a game they could have easily lost but due to high variance (winning every high leverage call, hitting an incredible slot fade on 4th down) did not.   The narrative of “we can’t win the big one” applied to this game was silly. And you now see how much. 

I don’t think so…I think MSU…

I don’t think so…I think MSU and their coaches know EXACTLY who they are.   A high variance team that takes big shots on offense and bend but doesn’t break on defense.    As I told anybody who would listen the Sparty win was a high variance win.   All the chopping wood, we don’t flinch is marketing speak.   They won a game they could have easily lost but due to high variance (winning every high leverage call, hitting an incredible slot fade on 4th down) did not.   The narrative of “we can’t win the big one” applied to this game was silly. And you now see how much. 

I completely concur.   That…

I completely concur.   That 4th down was a real shame because McNamara could have crawled over center and gotten the first down.   That 3 and 10 was an obvious bust and there should have been a time out called but Reed also made a great play to get the 1st down.   The play call I was most disappointed in was the 3rd and 4 prior to the uncalled PI on 4th down in the second to last drive.    That seemed like a wasted play when you are going 5 wide and moving the ball well.    I like the home run shot on first down rather than 3rd and that distance.    
 

My other complaint (and likely biggest) is getting killed by tempo.   This is LITERALLY on film that MSU does this well.   I don’t know the number but a TON of Walker’s yards came on stretch runs off tempo.    Not being prepared for that is borderline criminal.

Otherwise honestly this was the game I expected.   One that could go either way and that was how the game felt even when Michigan was up 16.  MSU offense is a homerun offense and they hit home runs.   A perfect slot fade on 4th down, ridiculous catches over good coverage, and getting walker into advantageous situations through tempo made them a perpetual threat.   They made all their mistakes in the first half we made all of ours in the second and then we got bit by statistical variance.  We lost EVERY review including a couple of reversals plus recovery of fumbles is notoriously unpredictable.   As losses go it’s hard for me to make this the traditional Harbaugh trope about toughness and flinching and chopping and all that nonsense.   Tucker went out there and built an all star team.   He got lucky with the QB and his coaching staff is EXCELLENT.   Johnson is a great OC and they know who they are on both sides of the ball.   I thought Michigan played a great game overall and if someone told me Walker would run for 200 yds and we outplayed and had more yds/play and coins have won, I would have viewed that as statistically improbable.   The reason they are never out of a game is because they can run and throw so they can keep a lead or throw their way back in.   And for Michigan they are the opposite which should help them retain a lead.   Unlike other lose on the road against top ten team rhetoric, this didn’t feel like that to me.  It felt a lot like the 2016 OSU game and I’m disappointed we lost but outside of getting killed by tempo which I put squarely on the coaches their game plan I felt was sound.   

The worst time in my…

The worst time in my marriage was when we had our second kid.   I all of a sudden felt like a distant third in my wife’s life.  I didn’t realize the only person more ignored was…herself.   That realization changed everything for me but we were very close to calling it quits.   That second kid probably changed their life more than they knew it would and on top of that they have another child in their marriage…this site.   Us idiotic fans who need him to tell us that everything is going to be ok or it’s all pointless.  He has to make sense for us of something NONE of us control and trying to keep his family together at the same time.   I would be genuinely depressed and question my sanity if I was him constantly.  

He’s going through a rough time and being beholden to us as fans and supporters of his business is secondary to the death of his marriage (if that is indeed what’s happening).    I am here if he needs me but I think if his silence is because he needs space then that is something we should all respect.   This game is an oblong ball tossed around by kids who ascribe to such notions as “toughness” and “grit” and “continuing to swing” and “not blinking” but really two evenly matched teams losing or winning is just variance.   It’s hard to make sense of that and pride is a powerful thing to ascribe to things you don’t control but I can’t imagine being my living or life.   Because if the game is an escape, when it doesn’t offer that, and your left with divorce papers staring at you - my needs as a fan are VERY secondary. 

The UCLA game and the…

The UCLA game and the Rutgers game are the two at first blush that really standout to me.   This lines seem to be overweighted to recent performance.    

I think because Nebraska…

I think because Nebraska weaknesses are high variance - TOs, special teams, etc.   The defense is good and the offense has explosive potential.   This game was handicapped at a field goal which seems about right.   
 

Here is an interesting fact - both teams have a higher yds/play than every opponent they’ve faced.  One is 5-0 and the other is 3-3.   The dangerous teams that upset other teams are usually this type of set up. 

I think his inability in the…

I think his inability in the zone read game really hampering the running offense is likely the cause of the Cyan.   We’ve been able to mitigate its effect and he is certainly more than a game manager but this will be a stern test for him.   Don’t be surprised to see more of McCarthy than you would expect in this game.

This is a very good Nebraska…

This is a very good Nebraska team.   That line is pretty spot on.  Their TOs will regress as the season plays out because they are an older team.    Just statistically bad luck.   The penalties are discipline for sure but penalty differential is hard to rely on when you are the visiting team.    Good teams with statistical outlier performances are DANGEROUS and us losing to Nebraska would not be a surprise.   

I covered on Louisiana tech,…

I covered on Louisiana tech, Boston college, Mississippi state, Stanford, and Minnesota and won on Nevada and ASU outright.   I didn’t cover on Duke, Michigan/Wisky under (a bet I NEVED make….uggh O/U bets), western Kentucky and Mississippi.   Yds/play difference net of SOS is still a relevant metric to use to bet along with site specific info.  Fewer arbitrages as the weeks progress sadly - markets get smarter.   

so far this week I like Stanford plus 11.5 - though I LOVE ASU this should be a one possession game.   I will look at the rest as the week goes on but that one jumped out at me. 

 

Last week was good:

MSU and…

Last week was good:

MSU and Fresno State to win and cover 

Florida to cover (which seemed insanely logical to me but +14.5 I thought maybe I was missing something) 

lost on: auburn to cover and Virginia tech to cover.   Both math errors that I hope not to make again but you can’t expect perfection.

I haven’t seen every game for tomorrow yet but I like Texas tech and Arkansas to cover if not win out right.   The yds per play metrics for these teams are such that they should be a field goal difference so it seems like there is value here. 

Washington can’t run -…

Washington can’t run - Michigan took advantage.    We didn’t throw any curveball at them until the last drive (dropping Hawkins into a robber position which almost led to the Int) and instead played a soft zone over the middle effectively daring them to throw (which they did).   I think Washington’s pass offense will get better but their run offense is borderline unwatchable.    The defense will get better as zone becomes more comfortable.    The drops were wonky and Washington took advantage of those soft spots.  Otherwise the defense looks like it’s learning and morphing.   Not just one look daring others to beat it.    I’m already a huge fan of that…

He has the same problems he…

He has the same problems he had here and that he had in high school.  He’s not accurate and he doesn’t know when to keep and when to hand off.    I have NO idea how he won the competition last year but I suspect in practice one of those two issues doesn’t jump out.     I’m still floored he beat out McCaffery because Dylan knew how to at least run the read option well.   That whole thing is still a complete mystery to me….

What made me excited for JJ…

What made me excited for JJ is his insane accuracy against high level competition off multiple platforms with a statistically significant number of throws.    I think Cade will win games but JJ…he will change the program. 

Are the KPIs just views,…

Are the KPIs just views, likes, subscriptions, etc or something else?   I’m interested in the predictive analytics around   which players are likely to provide the greatest ROI (which is more a growth metric than volume metric but still).  I fear anything else gets commoditized….

I don’t know the splits but…

I don’t know the splits but Brown’s offensive efficiency is mostly from catch and shoot so highly assisted.   Wagner can create his own offense (or does that historically).   I think the argument of getting a catch and shoot opportunity for Brown is logical but the argument of why give Wagner shots vs brown likely has to do with the fact that UCLA was allowing us to create shots off the dribble but trying to limit catch and shoot opportunities.

This was a game where our shot makers had to make shots.   They didn’t and that’s the game. 

It’s not just poetry it’s…

It’s not just poetry it’s prose.  Thanks Brian for saying all the things my brain can’t say and my heart just won’t.  This team at this in the world will always be special to me. 

I actually concur with this…

I actually concur with this assessment.  Haslam made Dan Snyder look hands off yet once he committed to a singular culture and vision, things for the Browns began to click.   I am a big believer in culture, having started and run a couple of start ups.   You will be surprised how powerful organizational behavior is - culture of a company starts from its leadership.   Football people haven’t run the Lions (or the Browns) for MANY years and it’s been culturally fractured for years.   That change doesn’t happen overnight but it CAN change. 

We will regret not hiring…

We will regret not hiring Dodds.  I’m sure Holmes is fine but Dodds and Paton are superstar GM hires (other than Kevin Colbert which was a pipe dream).   Oh well...wish him the best....he’ll need it 

You guys all know that’s how…

You guys all know that’s how Vic Fangio became DC at Stanford?  And that Stanford defense was one of the best in the country? He was recommended by John to Jim.    Jim took him with him to SF.    This could mean McDonald is great and Harbaugh will leave for the NFL next year OR just about anything else.   But I would suspect McDonald is probably very good.     The big issue is recruiting on that side - DTs and CBs is still the issue it is.    My hope is that a phenomenal recruiter on the defensive side is brought in as well. 

I 100% concur - he is built…

I 100% concur - he is built to be a college coach and he recruits like mad.  He’s also learned that part of the business under Meyer.   Doubt he would be the guy for institutional reasons but he would get my vote.