EJ Holland vs. Sam Webb
Tomorrow we will hear what the plans are for the remaining 2023 recruits including top-of-the-board prospect Nyckoles Harbor. What has been interesting as a way too avid consumer of recruiting info is how different two of our primary recruiting writers feel about this recruitment. I won't share any paywalled info but from what I can tell EJ Holland feels pretty ($) pessimistic, especially in the 11th hour, whereas Sam Webb is ($) holding out hope and thinks Michigan checks all the boxes (stated on his podcast yesterday).
So I wanted to put it to the board: Who do you trust to get the call right? Who's info do you find to be more consistently reliable and balanced? And how do they end up feeling so differently about this very exhaustively covered recruitment?
January 31st, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
In fairness to Sam, he's not exactly being overly optimistic. He's just reporting the facts as he knows them, which is that the family says they continue to consider Michigan, and that the staff remains all-in. Reading between the lines on what Sam has been saying, it's clear Michigan has never been pushed out of or quit this race, but it would be surprising if he committed here. Overall, I think Sam does a great job. even if he projects a certain kind of optimism and belief in the program most of the time
January 31st, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
Agreed - I think EJ probably has a better beat on what the kid is thinking but Sam is talking directly to the family and they are probably still trying to push towards Michigan.
In the end, parents will typically go with what makes their kid happy so sounds like Harbor is not coming to Michigan.
However, one thing we should have all learned the last few years, there used to be no prize for 2nd or 3rd place in recruiting. Now, it means that you are in first place in the transfer recruitment in a year or two. So everyone stay super positive on these kids when they announce their commitments - even if it is for other schools.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
Great point. It used to be that once a player signs with another program, that's it. In these new days where players can easily transfer, it's still very possible to get them later. And with Harbor, who knows how his track career will go. He may not qualify for the 2024 Olympics and decide it's best for him to concentrate on football. Then, he may look again at Michigan. Or, he may to great at track and decide to stick with that. We'll all see what happens.
February 1st, 2023 at 10:25 AM ^
Harbor was never coming to Michigan. Don't bother paying attention tomorrow.
February 1st, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
Out of curiosity, are there many examples of players transferring to their "runner up" school after hitting the portal? It seems like many of them just open up to a completely new group of suitors.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
Some are acting like Webb is predicting that Michigan will land Harbor. He's never once done that—he's been saying that Michigan has a good chance, which is totally reasonable.
I've never thought myself that Harbor will choose Michigan, but I don't get my knickers twisted because someone who is optimistic by nature says we have a chance.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
Sam is careful with crystal balls, and neither he nor anyone else on the TMI crew has ever had one in for Harbor
January 31st, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
he did say on the last recruiting insider podcast that post-final Harbaugh & Co visit and prior to the Oregon visit this past weekend, he would have been ready to put a crystal ball in for him to come to Michigan, but with that visit looming, he wasn't confident enough to do so.
Now a crystal ball isn't anything, but given the way Sam uses them, to me that sounded more than just like they had a "good" chance. but yes Sam has been far from saying it's definitely happenign.
January 31st, 2023 at 4:01 PM ^
The fact that post-OR visit Sam hasn't put in a CB also says a little bit about what he's thinking. Obviously, he didn't get more optimistic or even hold steady based on the pre-visit statements you referenced.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
Sam does a good job, but a lot of people love to hate on him because they are unable to read between the lines of what Sam is saying
January 31st, 2023 at 3:39 PM ^
People shit on Sam because he tends to focus on the "there's a chance" argument and not the reality of the situation and then say he never said Michigan was going to get the guy when he gets pushed. Which is obviously fine and also something that provides essentially no value. Michigan technically has a chance with Harbor, they are in his final group and he has obviously thought about going to Michigan. Its also very clear he isn't going to Michigan and has been for a while.
I wouldn't want to be a recruiting reporter. Your choices are to try to sound definitive on 17 year old kids with constantly shifting information. Or to hedge your bets constantly and in the process provide essentially no real value when your career depends on people seeing you as having value. But this is the career he picked and I think its a fair critique to say that he often highlights "there being a chance" when its clear the we are 3rd or 4th in a final group.
But really its why I try not to follow recruiting too closely. There's just no real value in worrying about who insiders think has a chance.
January 31st, 2023 at 8:14 PM ^
The problem with the industry of recruiting reporting is that 99.7% of the time there’s absolutely nothing to report, but these guys still need to make a living week-to-week
January 31st, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
I think they dislike Sam because he's generally positive and they're mostly negative.
January 31st, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
Negative people always dislike positive people. I try my best to be positive and always feel people trying to pull me into the depths.
January 31st, 2023 at 8:34 PM ^
This is a nice thought and all but the value he provides is based on his providing an accurate assessment of a situation, not being optimistic and fun for the program. I mean really his job is to sell subscriptions and frame his work in the way that leads to the most people paying for it but at least what he is selling is accurate assessments of recruiting. In recruiting being optimistic is going to make you wrong more often than not.
February 1st, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
He talks sports on the radio and predicts where 17 year olds are going to play football/basketball. He's not providing medical diagnosis. It's entertainment and supposed to be fun. I would never pay for subscriptions for any of this info FWIW.
January 31st, 2023 at 4:07 PM ^
Yeah, Sam is (to me) a smart, good guy whose optimism and positivity make him dear to a lot of us. Nobody holds it against him when he continues to think we have a chance with certain players. How would he have built such a following if he was always negative?
January 31st, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^
Personally, I think Michigan football fandom could use more negativity. Never been enough of that around here
January 31st, 2023 at 5:41 PM ^
More negativity and more cow bell. You can never have enough cow bell.
January 31st, 2023 at 11:26 PM ^
Bruce Dickinson : Easy, guys... I put my pants on just like the rest of you - one leg at a time
Bruce Dickinson : Except, when my pants are on, I make gold records
February 1st, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
most of these readers are having to google Bruce Dickinson right now...
January 31st, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^
Exactly I think both of their takes are very similar. Sam is just stating we fit the bill but he’s not saying he’s coming
January 31st, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
This is what Sam does. He’s very good at it. Holland is much more truthful and accurate. It’s quite obvious SC and Oregon are the primary options for him, Sam saying otherwise is just him trying to hype up the Michigan fanbase for clicks
January 31st, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
Sam holds out hope because he's a fan EJ isn't the level of fan Sam is. Sam also wants you to stay emotionally engaged to his site.
Harbor isn't coming. Its okay he wants to be a WR and he's not a very good one. Yes hes very athletic but he isn't a good WR. He has the potential to be however right now hes not.
January 31st, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
It's almost like no one knows shit and these are slightly educated guesses.
January 31st, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Exactly
January 31st, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
Educated guesses got me a 172 on my LSAT.
January 31st, 2023 at 4:32 PM ^
Sounds like you are attorney material!
January 31st, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
Educated guesses on the whims of a 17 year old kid at that.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:39 PM ^
I'd put in a crystal ball for the portal and like my odds.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
Slightly educated guesses on the internet by "Insiders" who don't know shit? Crazy...
January 31st, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
Holland. I'll eat a lemon if Harbor commits to Michigan
January 31st, 2023 at 4:00 PM ^
Pucker up...
January 31st, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
all I can think is: how long were you waiting to use that jpeg and was this the time to ... err ... pull it out?
January 31st, 2023 at 10:57 PM ^
Did you grow that yourself?
January 31st, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^
Even from your report it doesn't sound like they actually differ that much, just that Sam is trying to be optimistic whereas EJ is more realistic.
In general that seems pretty consistent with what we see on most recruits, but Sam has real relationships with key recruits and their families, whereas I am just not aware if that is the case for EJ or not. In each case, I find them to be as reliable as any recruiting insider, which is that all of their info automatically comes with a grain of salt. I've never seen any recruiting insider that is serious make a prediction that they are 100% confident in.
January 31st, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
Realistic > optimistic.
January 31st, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^
Holland and its not particularly close.
January 31st, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
In my opinion, Sam has a bit of a blind spot in recruitments like Harbor's where he develops a relationship with the family. He tends to trust the adults around the prospect who are more pro-Michigan than the prospect himself is. Another example of this is the recruitment of Justice Finkley in the '22 class, who had a die hard Michigan fan uncle.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
Thats probably a bad example. Justice Finkley would have been a wolverine until he showed up to a visit and his measurables were smaller than they expected. He was like 6'1, 6'2 and not particularly long arms. Michigan decided to move on because he didnt want to play inside and he wasnt long enough to play outside
January 31st, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
To wit, it was Sam Webb who got that info.
January 31st, 2023 at 4:10 PM ^
And before that, Sam was way more optimistic about Michigan's chances than EJ was. Finkley had an Instagram post laughing at a Michigan crystal ball pick at one point, so it's unclear how good of a position Michigan was in.
But it goes both ways. EJ was very wrong on Rocco Spindler.
January 31st, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^
Josh Christopher, Najee Harris two other examples of Sam getting close to recruit families and them bailing on Michigan.
Edit: I'll also say Sam was correct about Dax staying on after his random Bama commitment and he was also correct about the "Fuck Michigan" recruit... forgetting his name
January 31st, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
Wasn't Harris literally enrolled here? How on earth is that Sam's fault.
January 31st, 2023 at 4:52 PM ^
It really is a great example of how difficult it is to "predict" kids and why people should not get so bent out of shape about it.
January 31st, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
One guess!!!
February 1st, 2023 at 12:39 AM ^
Aubrey Solomon
January 31st, 2023 at 2:48 PM ^
From seeing comments on the board, I feel like Webb always has Maize Colored glasses on. Tends to see smoke where there is no fire.
And unfortunately I am pretty pessimistic myself about top recruits given UM's current NIL approach.
So, I side with Holland.
January 31st, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
Why do I have the deflating feeling that no one among Holland, Webb, and Harbor will get this call right?
January 31st, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
It’s interesting. Dealing with 17 or 18 year olds, and schools that will spend an enormous amount of money to “attract you”. I still find it difficult to fathom that Texas spent $280K for Manning’s recruiting visit - and, they admitted to spending that much.
I will say this.. what school does a better job of excelling I both academics and athletics than Michigan?