2021 The Game - Board Predictions Redux
I was looking for OSU's Defensive SP+ ranking for 2021 & 2022 (14th in 2021, 5th in 2022, #1 this year). I don't buy that OSU's defense is that great- I think they are good & have faced mediocre to poor offenses. We will get to see if this evaluation is accurate in The Game.
It's great to see how much better our outlook is now than in 2021!
Brian's perspective from 2021 OSU Preview:
- I mean, either Aidan Hutchinson wins the Heisman or Michigan loses. This is a good Michigan team going up against a buzzsaw that has virtually no holes on offense and has successfully relegated their dumbass defensive coordinator to the Paterno Zone midseason, because that's what they can do.
- Talent is likely to win out here; Michigan has scraped together enough to get by a large number of middling-to-bad teams but this is another level entirely. The elite guys/units Michigan has gone up against this year have generally won out—Kenneth Walker, PSU DEs, the Washington secondary, Wisconsin's rush defense—and now they're playing a team that's mostly elite. The usual pattern here when Michigan is real good is to stick around for a half or so and then get distanced in the third quarter.
Mgoblog user comments:
- BlueHills - Maybe they'll (OSU) be good sports and spot us a couple of touchdowns.
- stephenrjking- It will be bad. ...But it wouldn't be quite so bad if it weren't like this literally every year
- Dragonchild- It hasn't been a rivalry for a while. Rivalries aren't one-sided.
- Kilgor Trout- I'm hopeful, but we will see
- bronkblue- The write ups have largely been pessimistic all year and the team is 10-1, so at this point I'll take it if results continue
- MeanJoe07- OSU, 52-17
- Googles Paisano- Fuck all of this BPONE. OSU gets rattled for the first time this season and the wheels come unglued as Michigan wins going away. Led by Hutch and his six sacks, two of which result in turnovers, he earns himself a trip to NY.
November 21st, 2023 at 7:25 AM ^
Googles Paisano for the win!
On a different note, my Facebook memory from two years ago today was a post I made with a screenshot of the ESPN Matchup Predictor for the 2021 edition of The Game. Showed Michigan with a 38.2% chance of winning. My caption for the post was "So, you're saying there's a chance?!?" There was, indeed, a chance!
November 21st, 2023 at 7:34 AM ^
My post from the 2021 game preview thread. Works for this year's edition as well. Go Blue!
November 26th, 2021 at 6:17 PM
Michigan fandom: prioritizing perceived objectivity and being 'right' since 2006.
If this is life without hope, I want no part of it. Go Blue. UM 31, OSU 30. Moody* with the game-winning kick.
November 21st, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
2021 was super rewarding, because as a fan who is determined always to be optimistic, it felt like a huge payoff to be hopeful all season and get almost everything that I hoped for.
Below is my prediction from 2021. Using the same format of quarter predictions for this year, I'm thinking that they do "ok" as long as they can run, but we just have too much for their defense. Once they get behind, every series is a chaos of Kyle McCord trying to live until supper time.
As it becomes apparent that they are not the defensive juggernaut that they thought, their will begins to break too. We (literally) run them into the ground with two long drives that bridge Q 3–4 and then take up the bulk of the rest of the 4th.:
Q1 21–10
Q2 14–3
Q3 10–0
Q4 14–0
Total: 59–13
The headlines are then dominated by b.s. about how having Harbaugh on the sidelines isn't that important, but also a few reasonable takes that "It's not the signs and the scouts, but the players that make the routs."
2021 prediction:
November 26th, 2021 at 9:27 PM ^
We jump out to a 21-7 lead after 1, due to two good drives and special teams or defensive TD. We try to slog it out on the ground, but backs keep breaking plays, and we win the 2nd 14-7. A quick strike TD from them happens in the 3rd, plus a FG, but backs strike back. We lose the third 10-7. We trade TDs again in the 4th, but they still can't stop the run, and time is running out. Last play of the game, deep in their end, we form up the V, and then throw walk-on TE Selzer his first reception (after having two called back earlier this year) on a TD as time runs out. 14-7 in the 4th.
56–31 good guys
November 21st, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
My favorite gif from 2021, trying desperately to get people to find some hope.
November 21st, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^
OSU's defensive SP+ ranking must have been higher than 5 going into the Game last year if that's how they finished the season.
Harbaugh completely rebuilt his coaching staff in 2021 and the bones of that rebuild are still there. And the fact remains that Ryan Day is another year further away from Urban Meyer and I feel like you can see it on the field. OSU is basically a solid defense and Marvin Harrison. It's hard to imagine them scoring more on our defense than they did a year ago in Columbus.
November 21st, 2023 at 7:45 AM ^
Unfortunately I think you have to add TreVeyon Henderson to your solid defense + Marvin Harrison claim. He's looked real good the last couple games (although I've admittedly only watched his highlights).
November 21st, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
Yeah, (and please people I am not saying the sky is falling) but I don’t feel like the people dismissing Henderson have actually watched OSU since he has come back. He isn’t a one trick pony and is running between the tackles for good yardage. Then he can break it. I wasn’t thrilled to see PSU backs regularly get 5-6 yards on first down for a good portion of the Michigan game because that is what OSU wants to do.
Day may not be “tough-tough,” but he has notably tried to manage his team in a manner to beat Michigan this year.
Honestly, Will just has to give his best shot at Harrison one on one with some over the top help sometimes. You can’t just try to stop Harrison and let Henderson have a day. They will grind you down this year.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Moral of the story - get to McCord. First start in The Game. Make it memorable, and not in a good way.
November 21st, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
I see no way we don't harass him all day long. Our D-line is better than their O-line, by a fair margin. As long as JJ has a good day, doesn't need to be Heisman level, just good... then I think we win again.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
I’m curious to know how much of Henderson’s play making the past few weeks is due to the level of competition he’s played. He hasn’t exactly faced a murderers row of rush defenses, so at a bare minimum, it’s a factor on some level.
I think back to that Wisconsin game where he was either breaking off 10-12 yard runs or consistently getting stonewalled at the LOS.
I think he’s going to have much tougher sledding on Saturday, but it doesn’t mean he’s not capable of breaking a few runs. And given Michigan’s relatively poor tackling against Maryland this weekend, that definitely is a bit of a problem.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^
You also have to figure that Henderson has had the advantage of facing defenses that have built their game plan around stopping Harrison, putting a heavy emphasis on pass defense. Clearly OSU's running game with Henderson is better than it was the previous two years but Michigan is equipped in a way that no defense OSU has faced (including Penn State, who yes I realize that Henderson did not play against) has been.
November 21st, 2023 at 9:00 AM ^
The question of the first quarter or so will be can their offensive lineman move the ball on the ground vs our defensive tackles?
November 21st, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
Not dismissing what you are saying but after seeing what UM did to OSU on the ground, I believe OSU will have a harder time than did against PSU on the ground. MD is not a good indicator. Even if that is given, if you notice, UM buttoned up their running game in 2nd and 3rd downs.
November 21st, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
This. I truly don’t see how they move the ball consistently. I can imagine them having some success on the ground, but truly don’t believe that Day is disciplined enough to stick with it even if it is working. McCord will throw the ball, Harrison will make some incredible plays, and some of those throws will be directly to our defenders.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:10 AM ^
He is sticking with the run this year. He’s been booed at home at least twice that I can remember this year for sticking with the run.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
I’ll believe it when I see it. They weren’t down a TD to Michigan on the road when he stuck with it before. After all, he’s inherently stupid in big games.
November 21st, 2023 at 7:55 AM ^
In 2022 looks to me like OSU was #5 defensive SP+ ranking heading into the Maryland game. After that game dropped to #10 and then dropped again to #16 after the UM game.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:23 AM ^
Seems like the offense is getting worse the further Day gets from Urban and Kevin Wilson. I know the run game is improving, but what would their pass offense look like without the clear cut best WR in the country? This is an offense that was in relatively low scoring affairs with Indiana, Notre Dame, Rutgers, and Maryland before blowing it open late. Even the Minnesota game was only 13-0 at half. I think a defense that spent literally the entire season playing The OSU Defense no matter who the opponent was can keep them under 30 points again
My main concern is Sherrone is gonna turtle and our offense won't hit 30 either
November 21st, 2023 at 7:42 AM ^
Best tasting crow I’ve ever eaten.
November 21st, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
2022 Predictions-
Seth- We're going to win
Buckeye Chuck - If neither Corum nor Edwards are near full strength, it will get ugly. You gon' die.
Corum was out, Edwards had a broken hand- Did we die??
In Buckeye Chuck's defense his concerns were spot on- 
November 21st, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
I liked his level-headed thinking and honest opinion. We need another BuckeyeChuck list of concerns
November 21st, 2023 at 9:02 AM ^
Wow, "Michigan is going to have success running the ball", "OSU is terrible in short yardage situations" & "I am worried about giving up a few big passes". That is an insanely accurate 3/3 on predictions, Chuck
November 21st, 2023 at 9:01 AM ^
I said that? huh. I suppose I need to upgrade my concerns. ;-) ...or would it be downgrade?
In hindsight, it was the safeties that got burned even more than the CBs because they asked safeties (*cough* Ransom! *cough*) to cover one-on-one when they had rarely done that the entire season prior to the game.
November 21st, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
What are your concerns this year?
Mine are - 1) I think McCord is better than people are giving him credit for, 2) I'm not sure why my fellow fans are not equally terrified at the prospect of a JTT/Barnhart matchup, and 3) Michigan can break runs if they run enough but does not run the ball well on balance on a down-to-down basis.
November 21st, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
I am terrified of Barnhart (and our other OTs) against OSU's DEs.
I am also concerned that our running game doesn't work unless we add in a 6th or 7th OL.
I am also concerned about Treveyon Henderson being healthy and our D not being able to stop him with two high safeties.
And then, I'm concerned about our secondary against OSU's WRs (but believe we have a fair shot at reasonable success there). Sainristil has INTs but has also gotten beat by good route-runners.
Finally, I'm concerned that in a game like this, Harbaugh's absence will be a factor, especially with in-game adjustments.
November 21st, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
I didn't list his section of what he was confident about- because that section did not go as well!
November 21st, 2023 at 7:56 AM ^
OSU was vulnerable to good rushing attacks in 2021 and had given up a lot of yards in a loss to Oregon. The fact that they demoted their DC midseason was indicative of problems on that side of the ball. Their area of greatest weakness aligned with our area of greatest strength
November 21st, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
That whole 2021 both The Mad Hatter and I repeatedly said that Michigan would beat OSU that season.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^
and this year, darker blue, what say you?
and where is hatter to weigh in on this?
November 21st, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
I was supremely confident of victory until they took out Coach Harbaugh.
I still think we're going to win, but it won't look like the past 2 years. We're in for a much closer game.
November 21st, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
I'll go one step past Mad Hatter. I think we lose this year and the primary reason is that people don't understand just how much a head coach does. Beyond setting culture and strategy, they notice things from experience within a game that the team can leverage and calm things when they seem out of control. JJ's three worst games are all with Sherrone at coach and our worst passing performances are with Sherrone at coach. This isn't a knock on Sherrone but you are asking a first time coach to coach in THE GAME against a guy who has coached in this game for multiple years. There is something to having Harbaugh there that is being grossly under appreciated. This line will go below three points by game time and it should. I think this OSU defense is far better than either edition we have played the last two years and they will hit some big shots when we cheat. They won this game when they figured out how to play a new commissioner and waited until just the right time to drop that bomb. Them getting the rest of the league behind them is not a surprise but was almost an added bonus. Honestly all credit in the universe of dirty game because this will be THE difference this year.
November 21st, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
I think we smoke them. 41-16
November 21st, 2023 at 8:08 AM ^
I have been feeling uneasy about this game since about 2:00 on Saturday. However, what has given me some peace has been thinking about the team we have this year vs the last two years (along with their teams the last two years).
2021 v 2023:
- Michigan: We have a much better QB; not even a discussion. I will take a partially hobbled Junior JJ over a first year starter Cade. Our running game is not as strong, and while Blake wasn't 100%, having Haskins and a pretty much ready to go Corum I think is better than our current situation. OL is about a push. The guards are better. Nugent and Vastardis are about equal. A healthy Henderson is probably a push with Hayes. Stueber is definitely better than Barnhart. TE's a slight edge to this year, but All was a menace blocking all game in 2021. WR's are better this year. We have a #1 in Wilson. 2021 was basically this same receiving corps (top 2 speaking). Defensively, we are better this year. Colson and Barrett are better than Colson and Ross. DTs are better. Our 5 man rotation is better than Hinton, Smith, and Jeter. Our secondary is probably a step down as in 2021 we had 3 good to decent CBs in Turner, Green, and Gray. Johnson is better than any of those 3, but the depth was better in '21. Hill at that point in the season was better than Mikey is right now. Paige and Moore are a push with Hawkins and Moore. Obviouisly the Edges were superior in 2021.
- Ohio State: QB play is much worse. OL is a definite step down in comparison. Running Back play is better this year than 2021. WRs it is tough to say. Is Harrison, Egbuka, and Stover better than Wilson, Olave, and JSN with Stroud throwing to them? Those are two top 15 NFL WRs in Olave and Wilson, and at that point JSN was better than those two. MHJ is better than any of those individual 3, but I think as a whole you have to give the passing game edge to 2021. Defensively I think this team is comparable to 2021.
2022 v 2023
- Michigan: QB play is better this year. JJ had a rough week last week and hasn't looked completely sharp the past 3 games, but he is a veteran who has played in enough big games now that I am expecting to see him play one of his best games. Our running backs are in a much better spot this year than last year. OL is a downgrade. We miss Olu a lot. WRs were better last year as we have the same group this year minus our chain mover in Ronnie Bell. TE's are better this year. Defensively as a whole I would give a push and maybe the slightest edge to last year. On the DL we are better this year. The Edges are much improved and we have improved at DT. Linebackers are better this year. Secondary is where the biggest gap is from last year to this. Turner was much better than Wallace and Green was much better than whoever our #3 is. 2022 Moore was better than what we have seen from 2023 Moore.
- Ohio State: QB play from last year to this isn't even comparable. Stroud was lights out all year last year. RB play is better this year with a healthy Henderson. OL for OSU was better last year. WR play is better for OSU this year as they are pretty much the same unit as last year, but Stover has shown a lot of improvement. Defensively, OSU is better this year in year 2 under Knowles.
Overall, I think this is the first year I give us the overall edge but it's basically 51-49% type edge. The biggest difference is that we have the clear advantage at QB. In toss up games you want the better QB. What I am most worried about are long runs from Henderson. Harrison Jr will make plays but as JSN showed with his heroics and what was it, 13 catches in 2021, that can be minimized by clamping on 3rd and short. We will be able to know the trajectory of this game after the first 15 minutes. If we come out like we did in 2021, I think we win this game in similar fashion to the last two years. If we come out like we did in 2022, then I wouldn't bet on us repeating the same trajectory that we did last year.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:17 AM ^
Very good summary. Advantage at QB should be magnified by McCord playing on the road in this environment for the first time.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
The three games I would highlight as comparable to The Game for McCord (Notre Dame and Wisconsin for hostile road environments, Penn State because of their defense):
Notre Dame: 21-37 56.8% 240 0-0 | 1 sack
PSU: 22-35 62.9% 286 1-0 | 2 sacks
Wisconsin: 17-26 65.4% 2-2 | 4 sacks
I think McCord is Cade+. Throw in MHJ and you have his season. He's going to be in the most hostile environment he's faced against a defense on par with Penn State's defense. If he plays well, I tip my cap to him.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
McCord has improved over the season as a 1st year starter. I had him as a cyan early on but he is not that anymore.
However he is nowhere near Stroud. I think our run-stopping D will shut them down and I don’t see McCord being the threat Stroud is. He will have a few drives.
This game rests on JJ and Sheronne and play calling. If we play run, run, pass/run punt it’s going to be a close game. PSU/ Maryland game plans won’t cut it.
If we open up the offense, play action on 1st down, and JJ picks up 50 yards rushing we will win. You have an NFL 1st round QB on our side for once use him.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
Yeah, I’m not sure that’ll be as much of a factor considering their ND game on the road. We have yet to see if he’s got a Stroud-like aversion to sub-60 temperatures.
November 21st, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Yes, but he was only 57% completions (lowest of the year) and 6.5 YPA against Notre Dame. Not saying he'll be a bum, but I think it'll affect him.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:31 AM ^
The only thing I don't really agree with is the OLine. I rather have an award winning OLine than the one we have. Nothing against this OLine, but if we're going to compare, I'd rather have either the 2021 or 2022 OLine.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
Disagree on Defense being push with 2022- This year's D is the best since 2016 and probably better than 2016's.
Also, think M receivers are a + compared to 2022. Roman Wilson is catching the ball much better, Semaj I think has more upside than Ronnie Bell but isn't as reliable yet.
OSU's Henderson has looked good the last few games so if he rushes well Michigan will have to change their D approach.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^
People very easily forget that going into 2022, we were panicking that our defense was a massive rebuild project and had tons of holes, not to mention losing our coordinator. We got virtually everyone back this year plus the DC, and the defense has shown it all season.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
I agree with your summary except when you got to Ronnie Bell. Semaj Morgan is obviously a playmaker of unique ability. Ronnie had an enormous body of work, but Semaj has an intangible quality about him like Denard, AC, and Desmond.
November 21st, 2023 at 9:02 AM ^
It’s all going to come down to Michigan’s OL v. their DL and Michigan’s DL vs. their OL. I like our chances.
November 21st, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
I'm uneasy about this game always, but especially since a loss means "the narrative" becomes "Michigan is a bunch of cheaters." Feel like stupid shit happens in this game and the Michigan players don't deserve to be labeled cheaters no matter how the game goes.
All that said, Michigan has the better QB and better defense going up against the worst OSU offense they've had in a long time.
The only concern spot is OSU edges vs Michigan Tackles, which until Maryland I wasn't even that concerned about. I hand waved away Purdue and PSU as fixable problems. 3 games in a row is becoming a trend.
Every other matchup is manageable to winnable. Run game isn't as good as last year? Still think the guards and Corum will be able to produce a decent clip. Marvin Harrison? Yeah he will get his, but Will Johnson and the pass rush will limit the damage there.
November 21st, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
For what it's worth, Purdue, PSU and Maryland all have more sacks on the year than OSU. It's not even particularly close either. Just saying, it may not be surprising to see the tackles perform well this weekend?
What I find really telling and what gives me hope is that the one team that really seemed to give OSUs defense trouble was the one team that had a QB that was a threat with his legs. Activate JJ in the run game this weekend and this offense could potentially be a monster that OSU is not at all ready for.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^
We’re winning this fucking game.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:24 AM ^
I just have a hard time seeing JJ McCarthy, Zak Zinter, Trevor Keegan, Roman Wilson, Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards, Kris Jenkins, Mike Sainristil, Michael Barrett and Rod Moore losing this game at home.
Those guys turned this program around. They'll finish the job.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:45 AM ^
Although, I had similar feelings about this game when I found out Jim Harbaugh will not be coaching, these guys are who give me confidence a win will still happen. We have fantastic leadership on this team and I think they will do everything possible to get the team ready for Saturday. Go Blue!
November 21st, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^
Those guys turned this program around. They'll finish the job.
November 21st, 2023 at 8:36 AM ^
Whoever runs the ball more effectively has won this game about 99% of the time the last 100 years. That will probably hold true in this one as well. Michigan is better equipped to get the tough yards in short situations when everyone knows you're going to run it to move the chains. It's late November and the weather is typically garbage. I think Corum has been waiting for this opportunity and the chance to put his stamp on this rivalry. No stupid emotional penalties that extend drives and I like Michigan's chances.