What would a 12 team playoff look like?
ESPN did the whole "12 team playoff simulation from 2014 to 2021" thing here ($) following the 12-team playoff announcement.
And yes, I checked the board. Other than the big Brett McMurphy announcement thread with matchups before the final CFP rankings came out, this doesn't exist on MGB (unless the search feature is so terrible *cough*cough* I couldn't find it even after scrolling through 5 pages of results).
Michigan-related content in Connelly's article is that we now make it in:
- 2016 as the 6 seed and play a hypothetical first round game against 11 FSU, then go on to play 3 seed Washington.
- 2018 as the 8 seed and play a hypothetical first round game against 10 Florida, then go on to play 2 seed Clemson.
- 2021 as the 2 seed and play the winner of 7 ohio state and 10 michigan state which yeah that would be...terrible? awesome? terribly awesome? awesomely terrible? I don't know.
- Also in 2021, UGA would not be a top 4 seed since they didn't win the conference. Baylor now sneaks in.
They also suggest that fewer players would opt out of the bowl games in preparation for the draft if they have a shot at winning the natty.
So what would happen in 2022, since this article was written before the selection show? and is it any better or worse than reality?
Top 4 seeds look VERY different since it only includes conference champs)
- Georgia (SEC champ)
- Michigan (Big Ten champ)
- Clemson (ACC champ) (#7 in CFP rankings behind TCU, osu, alabama, tennessee)
- Utah (Pac12 champ) (#8 in CFP)
FIRST ROUND GAMES:
- 5 seed TCU vs 12 Washington
- 6 ohio state vs 11 Penn State
- 7 Alabama vs 10 USC
- 8 Tennessee vs 9 Kansas State (just missed the first round bye cut)
Other than osu/PSU, these are fun cross-sectional matchups, including the blueblood USC/Bama game.
SEMIFINAL GAMES:
- Georgia vs. winner of TN/KSU
- Michigan vs winner of Alabama/USC
- Clemson vs winner of osu/PSU
- Utah vs winner of TCU/Washington
Not gonna lie, I think Clemson has the toughest draw with osu/PSU. I think both of those teams would beat Clemson.
Michigan's draw is not terrible, either. Alabama is always tough, but this isn't vintage 'bama. Maybe 71 year old Saban is slowing down. Regardless, I like our chances here against either team.
Georgia looks to be in good shape. I think they beat both teams handily.
Only one I'm not sure about is Utah's draw. Haven't paid enough attention to them to know how they play or really anything about them.
That said, I'm not super-interested in seeing a 9-3 team somehow get really hot and lucky and win the championship. Seems wrong.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:09 PM ^
Since it's subjective seeding by the CFP it will look like this every year unless hard criteria is defined. Blank---they will create what they want to generate the most money.
December 7th, 2022 at 8:54 PM ^
Nothing but a money grab. Once upon a time college football actually bragged that its regular season was its playoff.
Might as well change the name to NFL Bush League since almost everything unique about college football will be gone. This year, if you're Penn State, you can lose to the two best teams in your division and still get in with a top 8 seed. What's the point of playing the games? The NFL is fine, for those who like it. Its stated purpose is to make money. College athletics should be different and a unique experience for fans and athletes. Imagine if college basketball followed the NBA model. It would be called March to June Madness, and it would be boring as hell.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:11 PM ^
Unless I misread the format. Where does the highest-ranked group of 5 champion get slated in their playoffs?
EDIT: My understanding is the top four conference champions get a bye, then the next two highest-ranked conference champions get a spot, then there are 6 at large spots. This means Tulane would be in the playoffs this year.
College Football Playoff
First round
Game 1: (9) Kansas State at (8) Tennessee
Game 2: (12) Tulane at (5) TCU
Game 3: (10) USC at (7) Alabama
Game 4: (11) Penn State at (6) Ohio State
Quarterfinals
Game 5: (1) Georgia vs. Game 1 winner
Game 6: (4) Utah vs. Game 2 winner
Game 7: (2) Michigan vs. Game 3 winner
Game 8: (3) Clemson vs. Game 4 winner
December 7th, 2022 at 6:21 PM ^
That is correct, ESPN did a piece AFTER the selection show to talk about how it would look this year and Tulane gets the 12th spot as the 6th ranked conference champ.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:38 PM ^
Thanks for that. Completely forgot about the G5 entry and Tulane is as good as any this year.
They have one of the best mascots
December 7th, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^
Interesting, but I'm focused on the current 4 team playoff.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^
2 of Utah's losses were to UCLA and Oregon - two very solid Pac 12 teams. There are 6 pac12 teams in the top 18 and generally they've all beaten up on each other - Washington lost to like ASU outside of that group, and I think UCLA lost to Arizona and Jedd Fisch, and Utah's 3rd loss was week 1 @Florida. Not a great loss but not worse than OSU @VT in 2014.
I'm generally not a fan of expansion, but the Pac12 really does have a very solid league this year. I don't know how good they are but I think they deserved somebody in the CFP. Not TOO broken up about it - OSU was undeserving but so was any single Pac12 team - but one thing that softens me to expansion is that 4 conferences will by rule be represented in the quarterfinals. It was very plausible that we'd have only 2 conferences get teams into the 4 team CFP..
I do hope they somewhat explicitly try to avoid rematches in the first few rounds but that may be a tall order.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
And it's always tough to play up in Corvalis. (LeBatard show inside-joke but also sort of true)
December 7th, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^
I still think 12 is too many. I prefer 5 conf winners and 3 at large. BUT WHO AM I BUT A PAWN
December 7th, 2022 at 8:04 PM ^
8 destroys the regular season because 1-8 seeding would really make no difference. With a 12 team playoff at least winning your conference gets you a bye which will be the huge
December 7th, 2022 at 8:09 PM ^
12 is perfect. It is very clever. It is a way to get the maximum number of teams in, but still play the minimum number of games.
It will be rare for a team to play in all 4 games. The teams that get a bye automatically skip a game. The teams that play in the first round won't usually make it all the way to the final.
Even if a team does play 4 games in a given year, it will be an exceptional occasion. It won't be year after year.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:14 PM ^
I mean, Cinderella’s winning it all!?!? That’s what makes sports great!! I’m interested in seeing great games, a 9-3 getting hot and beating the likes of Alabama, Clemson, OSU, etc. would be so awesome, IMO!
December 7th, 2022 at 8:32 PM ^
But then the regular season is diminished. It wasn't a very big game when Team X beat Team Y in September after all, because Team Y got hot and won the playoff.
December 8th, 2022 at 9:03 AM ^
March Madness says hello.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:19 PM ^
I really hope Rounds 1 AND 2 get home games.
It'll be interesting how fans travel to 3 neutral sites on the road to a championship.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
It may be a possibility.
December 7th, 2022 at 8:07 PM ^
I would LOVE to see Alabama / USC travel to the Big House in mid-December. I hope it snows a foot.
December 7th, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
I think they will be neutral site games. Too many of these administrators and ADs have buddies running these bowl games.
December 7th, 2022 at 9:48 PM ^
Buddies in the bowls or not, if Michigan gets a chance to add 2 more home games to its schedule AND jack up ticket prices for both games because of the increased importance of the games, I'd think they'd tell their bowl buddies to go take a hike, depending on how the revenue split from tickets goes.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:20 PM ^
I think it would be rare for a 9-3 team to pull off 3 wins against top ten teams, maybe in college hoops but not football. Honestly I would love the CFB parody, this is the first playoff since it started without Bama or clemson! OSU Bama Clemson and UGa count for an absurd amount of births, and the odds for a new team shrink regularly. I love CFB dearly but even despite us just drinking our noses in things, this sport lacks parody. What I would hate to see is 9-12 seed upsets over 5-8 seeds, meaning more wins for 1-4 seeds, that would equate to more of the same. But hopefully spreads talent throughout CFB
December 7th, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
It works for basketball because there's so many random plays or moments with a lot of variance: a wide open three point attempt at best will get made 50% of the time. A QB who has a recieve breaking coverage and wide open down field scores a touchdown more often and is more damaging (see OSU game). There is also no prep time: we jump straight from conference tournaments straight to the big dance: no time to prep for opponents, lots of teams ride on momentum to lead them.
The longer we give teams to prep I think we see blowouts, even the NFL season is quickly followed up the next week by the first round of playoffs. Plus I feel it diminishes the regular season games and big game atmosphere, where a loss can tank or save a season.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
What would it look like?
It would look like me sitting on the couch with a beer in one hand and a bowl of salty snacks in the other, not moving from that spot on game days, and every once in a while, whispering "Thank you, Jeebus."
December 7th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
It would look like a dodecahedron.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:35 PM ^
I do these weekly on Twitter and Instagram under the tag cfbplayoffedits :
December 7th, 2022 at 7:03 PM ^
Great job!!!
December 8th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
Thank You! I actually starting doing these on MGoBlog years ago and decided to start an account a few years back.
December 7th, 2022 at 9:00 PM ^
Pedantry note but it should be based on, not based off.
December 8th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
I'll get that corrected. Thank You for pointing that out.
December 7th, 2022 at 6:41 PM ^
I would hope that at least in the first round they try to avoid games between teams in the same conference.
Here’s to a parody of parity…!
December 7th, 2022 at 7:58 PM ^
Yes, me too. Especially since they would be on-campus.
December 7th, 2022 at 7:17 PM ^
I think I read they will re-seed after the 1st round so Utah would get the best remaining team in the quarterfinal and Georgia with the easiest.
December 7th, 2022 at 7:59 PM ^
Teams with more losses win SB in NFL..why not in CFB? CFB is semi-professional now. I like our matchups here.
December 8th, 2022 at 7:54 AM ^
UM, there is no comparison between the NFL and college. Parity is a fair word - and, it’s shown in the point spreads.
The college semifinals have spreads of what.. 6 and 9.5 points? These are the four best college teams - so, the spreads should be small.. correct? When have you seen an NFL game with a 9.5 point spread in the playoffs? Or, even 9.5 points during regular season play?
December 7th, 2022 at 8:04 PM ^
There is a perverse incentive for AD's to NOT want their schools to do well enough to get a bye. They will want that sweet cash that comes with an extra home game.
They will say all the right things about only being interested in their school being a conference champion getting the bye, but in their heart of hearts they want that extra home game. That was the motivation after all of Michigan cancelling the UCLA series this year. The extra home game.
December 8th, 2022 at 7:14 AM ^
Dog, a lot of playoff / bowl revenue is split among the conference members. So, there’s some revenue (obviously) associated with a home game - how much is the question.
And, I would find it enjoyable to see a warm weather team play up north in mid December.
I wonder if the CFP “powers that be”, will try to force the B1G to “host” a first round game at an indoor stadium in December - e.g. Ford Field, Lucas Oil, Minneapolis, etc…
December 8th, 2022 at 8:45 AM ^
We should storm the gates if they do that.
We finally get an advantage after all these decades of having to go to the warm-weather teams' stadiums, and we're going to just give it right back?
F that.
Those games need to be played outdoors, on campus.
December 7th, 2022 at 8:04 PM ^
I personally hate the 12 team playoff, I'm fine with either the 4 team or if you have expansion, 8 team with 5 spots for power five winners and 3 at large, with the first round held at the home stadiums of the top 4 conference champs.
December 7th, 2022 at 8:17 PM ^
They need to put a cap on how many at-large teams can be from the same conference. Perhaps 2 at most.
We can't have 5 at larges all from the SEC which you know they would do. If you are only the 4th or 5th best team in your conference, better luck next year.
December 7th, 2022 at 8:52 PM ^
9/10 that will likely be the case anyway. PSU, OSU, UM(one champ 2 at-large berths) are so far ahead that no other conference team was even close. Or if you have it too balanced like the PAC-12 you will only have 1 maybe 2 teams make it due to the parity. I like incentivizing conference champs but other than that let the teams fall the way they should.
December 7th, 2022 at 9:39 PM ^
I know this is for illustrative purposes, but - they should “adjust” the seedings so teams from the same conference don’t play each other until “as late as possible”.
For example, if two teams from a conference are in the 12 team field, they should be seeded on opposite sides of the bracket. If three teams - then - in three of the four quadrants.
The proposed Ohio State vs Penn State first game matchup would be a mistake.
More inter conference games is what the goal should be.
December 7th, 2022 at 9:49 PM ^
I don’t know what the bowl alignment will be for these games - but, my guess is as follows. They will - or need to - use major bowls as much as they can.
First round - on campus - that’s four games.
Which leaves seven “more” playoff games - four quarterfinals, two semifinals, and the championship.
What are those games - which bowls will be used? IMO, Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Peach, and Cotton - that’s six. With the championship potentially moving around to one of those sites - or some others - like SoFi, maybe Lucas Oil, Houston, etc…
This will essentially kill all the other bowl games. The Outback, Citrus, Holiday, Duke’s Mayo, etc - well, not sure which teams / matchups they will have - but, they won’t be as appealing.
One bowl I hope always remains is the Quick Lane Bowl, so our friends in EL won’t have far to travel if they ever become bowl eligible in the future.
December 7th, 2022 at 11:04 PM ^
Some years we’ll hate the process and other years we’ll love it. What has changed?
December 7th, 2022 at 11:42 PM ^
More years that we'll love it.
December 8th, 2022 at 7:31 AM ^
Basically it will be trash and we will get complaints from the thirteenth ranked team left out about how they were better.
In all seriousness, it’s a terrible system. It cheapens a regular season and just adds more games that are unnecessary. Let’s say Tennessee got in this year, do we really need a game of Joe Milton overthrowing WRs as a playoff game? What does that prove? Just makes the season longer.
December 8th, 2022 at 8:10 AM ^
IF the 12 team CFP began this year, what would the schedule look like?
First round, on campus sites, December 17th. Second round (quarterfinals) on December 31st? National semis on January 7th? NC on January 16th? Or, do you move things up one week - maybe quarterfinal round on December 24th?
December 8th, 2022 at 8:47 AM ^
Look at the graphic above.